On June 30 2010 08:56 rastaban wrote:My first time ever playing Mafia, thanks Darth for giving me the chance. I have read the rules and some previous games, so hopefully I don't screw my side up too much
On June 30 2010 12:46 rastaban wrote:
I couldn't tell from the rules, are we allowed to discuss now, or do we need to wait until day since it is night 0 ?
On June 30 2010 12:54 rastaban wrote:
Ok, here is what I have so far:
Since the recruit hasn't happened yet the confirmed role tally should be
Godfather 1
Mafia 0
Free Masons 2
Lovers 2
Pro-Town ~19 (possible traitors)
On June 30 2010 23:27 rastaban wrote:
You are mostly right Hesmyrr, but it is currently night 0, and the godfather is picking his scum. Our first vote will be day1 (the phase coming up) which at that point the godfather's choice is already in effect and there is 1 mafia member out there bringing anti-town up to 3. I don't think this invalidates your proposal of voting off in-actives but I think it does mean we can use interaction based analysis a day sooner.
On June 30 2010 23:51 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +The Godfather will recruit a new mafia member before the game begins (after role PMs). No other night actions will be carried out on “Night 0,” and the mafia member will be notified of his status before the game begins. For this reason, role PMs will be sent out 24 hours before the game begins. If the Godfather fails to PM me during Night 0, no one will be recruited.
So unfortunately none of the other PR will go, but it should mean there is no kill either.
On June 30 2010 23:52 rastaban wrote:
oops ninja'd by bumatlarge.
On June 30 2010 23:54 rastaban wrote:
We can get information once in the game for everyone who has died up to that point, provided the coroner is in the game, not dead, and not recruited.
but other than that you are right only role-claim and death proclaims otherwise (though neither are necessarily accurate.
On July 01 2010 12:38 rastaban wrote:
One thing to keep in mind, the roles were random so it is possible the godfather is a newer player and doesn't quite realize which posters are most valuable. Even then he can probably read previous games and realize who to target.
Anyway I have a semblance of a plan.
In this game the worst thing that can happen is to out a blue as not only can they be killed but they could also be recruited. Not all the blues are equal so here seems the be the priority
Roleblocker
Detective
Jailkeeper
Coroner
Dream Catcher
Veteran
Mad Hatter
I have the Roleblocker listed first because if he blocks even one mafia then they get no night kill. This gives a couple different options. First if we have a confirmed mafia then we can have him blocked which will shut down the mafia. Now the same person can't be blocked twice in a row but if we could find 2 mafia they could be locked down permanently while the rest are sought out.
The best plan for the roleblocker is to start randomly blocking people and if we get a night where there is no kill then you can try again the in 2 nights and cut down mafia kills in half or reveal the culprit. Now this isn't 100% because a veteran and the godfather could be hit and cause this due to 2 lives.
The jailkeeper can keep someone from being recruited, the powerful part of this is that it can be used on the same person multiple times. Assuming that person wasn't recruited this turn (18/20 chance) then if they are continually jailed you actually have someone that you know isn't recruited. One of the good players above would probably be best, though risky since they have a higher chance of a night 0 recruit.
Last thought Bill Murray put up an excellent list, while I don't think he is scum, since they can't directly communicate with the godfather it would be an excellent way to try and suggest some targets for him. Just something to keep in mind
On July 01 2010 12:40 rastaban wrote:
Wow, I started my post and when done there was already a whole page of posts, going back through.
On July 01 2010 13:23 rastaban wrote:
Korynne, your right about GF and I think role blocker as an additional lynch would be worth it. The role counts were not random and I think role blocker and and DT nearly have to exist to make it balanced.
There is some people calling out for L as a leader so I have an idea and wanted to see if any one saw some glaring holes. We could request the DT and the Role Blocker both target him.
If he is mafia or recruited then there would be no night kill so we could lynch him the next day.
If he is gf then the hit goes through but now the DT knows who he is and it would be worth role-claiming to eliminate the GF
If he is townie then the enemies hit goes through but we have a confirmed townie to lead us, then the jailer keeps him on lock down so he isn't recruited
The flaw I see with this is that the Mafia could just kill him as their hit, though that might be too obvious
The second option would be to jail rather than DT him (in conjunction with roleblock since it still goes through)
The difference is that in this case the vulnerability is that if he is GF instead we won't know but since he role blocked he wouldn't get a recruit that night. though at that point we would need to decide if we wont to keep him jailed or try a DT sometime to confirm he is not mafia
On July 01 2010 13:34 rastaban wrote:
I would say the the certainty of there being a role-blocker is very nearly 100%, The only thing I worry about is that we have no way of knowing if he is recruited or not so we don't know when this plan becomes ineffective. I am all for starting with it since the chances are good, and even if there is a mistake we have to reevaluate people anyway. We just have to have a plan on when the risk stops being worth it since they could be recruited.
On July 01 2010 13:40 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 13:35 DCLXVI wrote:On July 01 2010 13:25 Korynne wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 01 2010 13:16 DCLXVI wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 12:49 Korynne wrote:
So I don't think that idea works very well... but if we go ahead and pretend there's at least one roleblocker, we can roleblock instead of lynching someone. If mafia doesn't kill that night, we lynch the guy, if mafia does kill that night then we don't lynch the guy. So if mafia wants to get the guy killed they have to sacrifice their night kill to get the guy killed, so basically it would be like us not lynching and mafia nightkilling that guy. I think that's a valid plan. But that requires a roleblocker... so... I don't know how confident we are on that matter. =\
So if we go ahead with this, it means we should pseudovote in this thread, and only vote to kill someone in the other thread when a night kill doesn't happen.
I don't think this plan would work very well. Even if we did have a roleblocker on our side and we declared a target for him/her, we could not guarantee someone as town for more than a day. The godfather could always recruit the roleblocked person the next night. Also, can the mafia choose not to kill at night? If so then the mafia could choose not to kill when the roleblocked player is townie so that the town lynches the townie the next day and throws off our numbers for a bit.
I don't understand why you say that the mafia have to sacrifice a night kill to kill the roleblocked guy, he is only safe for a day unless you plan on having him roleblocked for the whole game. That would hurt if he/she was a blue role and the chances that we have a roleblocker drop each day.
This method uses our lynches to find the mafia, but unless we find the godfather we are just fighting a losing battle. Keeping the mafia numbers down is good though, so there is merit to this strategy. I suppose the longer the town can keep ahead of the mafia the more the godfather will have to say and the easier he/she will be found.
Man, do I have to explain everything 5 times before people get it? xD
It's not to declare that person as town, it's to not waste lynches on townies. At that point, they are not mafia, so at that point, killing them is lowering town power. We want to keep as many people around as possible.
If mafia chooses not to kill that night, then they wasted a night kill! So instead of killing someone they choose, they have to not kill someone, so that the person we chose dies. That sounds like a pretty friggin awesome deal to me.
We vote to roleblock one person every night, and we vote to lynch that person if no night kill went on at night. So at most 1 person dies per day/night cycle, which prolongs the game which should be good for townies.
We're not really using lynches to find mafia as much as like, forcing mafia+town down to 1KP. And we never let a mafia go unlynched unless it's GF.
This is a perfectly awesome idea unless we have no roleblocker or roleblocker is mafia'd.
Umm... all of this is fine except the GF recruits another mafia each night so the KP is essentially 2. I don't understand how you think that the mafia not killing someone is a good thing in this scenario -
we roleblock someone
GF recruits (please not a blue role)
no deaths show
we lynch a townie
overall we lose two townies with no chance of hitting a mafia. The only possible benefit is a lucky blue role like DT finding mafia
Yes prolonging the game is a good thing, but not at the expense of having more mafia recruited while killing 0 of them. How are we not wasting lynches on townies in this situation? We are only killing townies.
But we are not "only" killing townies, the person is someone that normally would have been lynched instead so it is someone that is at least suspected mafia. It should have a success rate of finding mafia = to lynching with less townie deaths
On July 01 2010 13:47 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 13:41 YellowInk wrote:
@ proper use of roleblockers discussion
Right now, if I were a roleblocker, I would be targeting Korynne, L, BM, or someone I deemed a strong player. As I stated earlier, if I were godfather, I would have gone ahead and recruited a strong player on night 0. If you block one of us and find that the night hit was blocked, you may have just found yourself some scum. Until the godfather is dead, you can use that person as a block target every other night to reduce the hits. Once the godfather is dead you may want to claim and finger depending on the circumstances - though of course blocking someone and no night kill could mean a medic or another roleblocker or a vet, so this isn't 100% of course.
My declaring this strategy will probably also make it less likely he wants to recruit the top players almost as effectively as town declaring to lynch top players. Once the role blocker passes through the top players they will have cleared some number of us (at least for the time being). It's just a WIFOM game as to whether the godfather will try to target any more of us. But if he does, at least you'll be on to us and be able to point us out when the godfather goes down.
Great post, I think this is a good idea. Since we are forced to lynch every day we can combine the 2 methods, Lynch the inactives while RBing the top players.
One thing to note, there is no medic in this game. We could have a jailer, who does much the same but also blocks recruiting and other abilities.
On July 01 2010 13:54 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 13:50 youngminii wrote:On July 01 2010 13:46 Korynne wrote:On July 01 2010 13:41 youngminii wrote:
Wait what's stopping scum from still performing NKs?
You're not understanding my scenario. The mafia keeps killing and GF recruits everyone that was previously roleblocked. Once the roleblocker finally reaches scum, there will already be quite a few mafia. Also, if the roleblocker is NK'd then yeah we'd be sitting on our asses letting someone that's dead do something.
Also, there must ALWAYS be a lynch. You can't no lynch.
I don't get it. If scum keeps performing NKs that means that the guy we roleblocked is not mafia. So we shouldn't have killed him that night anyway.
Sure GF can recruit everyone that was previously roleblocked, but that's no better or worse than recruiting someone else.
The whole idea is that they're not confirmed townies.
The plan doesn't make us not lynch townies, it makes us ALWAYS LYNCH MAFIA.
It's not that we have an 'extra townie'.
You're simply delaying the game. You're getting a rubber band, stretching it out and claiming that it's a better rubber band than the original because it's longer.
Since we have to lynch, it won't slow down the game but it will allow us to check 2 people a night
On July 01 2010 13:56 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 13:55 BrownBear wrote:
Korynne, what do you think about the slight modification to my plan (we can roleblock twice in a row, so if a roleblock happens and nobody dies, keep that person alive and roleblock them again, THEN lynch them the next day)?
This is all still assuming there's a roleblocker in the game, obviously. I've decided your idea is worth trying at least on night 1. If it fails, then it fails, and we don't do it again.
We can't role block twice in a row
On July 01 2010 14:02 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 13:58 BrownBear wrote:On July 01 2010 13:56 rastaban wrote:On July 01 2010 13:55 BrownBear wrote:
Korynne, what do you think about the slight modification to my plan (we can roleblock twice in a row, so if a roleblock happens and nobody dies, keep that person alive and roleblock them again, THEN lynch them the next day)?
This is all still assuming there's a roleblocker in the game, obviously. I've decided your idea is worth trying at least on night 1. If it fails, then it fails, and we don't do it again.
We can't role block twice in a row
On June 27 2010 03:34 DarthThienAn wrote:
Roleblocker
You have the ability to prevent a player from performing a night action. You must inform me of your roleblock target before the night begins, and your target will be blocked for that night. Your target will be informed that they have been role blocked only if they can perform a night action. You may not roleblock the same player more than twice in a row. You do not lose your ability upon recruitment.
Au contraire
Thanks, thats what I meant but didn't say. oops.
On July 01 2010 14:07 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 13:52 Korynne wrote:
I see, someone will always be lynched. In that case we pseudovote in this thread for mafia, and vote in the other thread for godfather. So whenever no NK happens, we kill the mafia the next day. If NK happens, then we just lynch whoever we think is likely to be GF the next day.
Also roleblocking top players is lame YellowInk. FoS on you. That means all the best players can't use their roles... so the potentially good jailkeeper/detective/etc. can't do their thing... good job. Besides mafia can then get our top players killed by not killing at night (since they probably want to kill the top players anyway if they can't recruit them). So like, not good. And we'd have to be continuously roleblocking the top players, not just once and it's done with.
Not sure I agree with the roleblock part being a bad idea. The only negative combo is blocking the DT for 1 night. The jailkeeper being RBed 1 night would be annoying but isn't critical since he would be guessing at first on who to protect. The veteran, lovers, masons, coroner etc.. wouldn't really matter losing 1 night of powers or am I missing something?
On July 01 2010 14:12 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On June 30 2010 12:33 DarthThienAn wrote:
Side note cuz I know it will come up: Roles were given out randomly.
Specifically, I took a deck of cards and designated X cards to be X roles, put in enough cards to equal 20, shuffled, etc. Then I took the signup list and put it into a randomizer (tournament style). Took that list top from bottom as my new 1-20. Started flipping cards and assigning roles chronologically with that new list. Shuffled 19 cards (no Godfather) with 2 sets of 2 designated cards for the Free Masons / Lovers. Repeated the flipping + assigning process.
TL;DR - it were r4Nd0|\/|.
It is pretty much confirmed that there is 1 lover and 1 mason pair, at least in my mind.
On July 01 2010 14:27 rastaban wrote:
Headed to bed will be back early tomorrow to catch up on what has happened.
Right now I think the best chance for the town is to follow the following 3 plans that were proposed
1. The 1 Mason reveal and jailkeeper protects,
2. Role block the better players in synch (Maybe DT them as well to grab the godfather since if he is a good player we could be in bad shape.) My vote is for starting with L
3. Lynch the inactive/quites ElyAs has yet to post, get talking!
Night all!
On July 01 2010 14:35 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 01 2010 14:29 Korynne wrote:
Okay seriously people, what's with the idea of roleblocking the better players?? That just means that if a better player happens to be a blue role, they now can use the role less. -.-
We should role block whoever we think is most likely to be mafia, and follow my plan with regards to lynching.
We can lynch an inactive the first night, and from then on either lynch inactive/most likely to be GF. If we don't lynch most likely to be GF then we have DT check the most likely to be GF.
As an example, if we agree to roleblock L, the worse that could happen is that he is DT or Jailer, all the other roles are nearly unaffected. But this means that tomorrow we have a confirmed townie who is innocent and a good player.
The second thing it does is force the GF to start recruiting less obvious players since the prominent ones will be detected so quickly.
It is worth risking losing 1 DT check (on a 1/20 chance) to gain that knowledge. We don't have to continually do them, but for the first few turns it would be very stong.
Ok, now really off to bed
On July 02 2010 00:00 rastaban wrote:You make some valid points lakrimossa but 2 of them are not.
Show nested quote +I think you are trying to lead us away from a good plan. L:s mulitipel jailkeepers wouldent be a problem since the blue would roleclaim to the mason.
Since townies can't PM this game (unless you are the mason / lover pair) there is no way to roleclaim to the a Mason without making it public which means the jailkeeper would die that night.
Show nested quote +Masons are 2/19 which would mean 10.5 %. You seem good enough at match otherwise to know how to count overlapping. Why make such a big mistake?
He us adding in the fact that the jailer would have to cover the mason. Who ever the jailer protects can't be recruited (though the percent should probably be lower since if he protects the GF or either mason it doesn't add the third safe option) making 3 people a night unrecruitable.
On July 02 2010 00:02 rastaban wrote:
The second paragraph should start with *He is adding
On July 02 2010 02:09 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2010 01:50 Korynne wrote:
Oh so turns out I actually went through all the posts of YInk I needed to.
Seriously people, my plan is solid. =\ It lets us do up to 3 actions a day instead of 1 and I think that's way more valuable than having potentially more night actions (if we have more than 1 DT/RB which is highly unlikely). Also if dream catcher gets DT/JK they should use it freely, except not overlapping DT with what we vote for in thread.
I agree with this but I don't think that this is separate from blocking the top players. My reasoning is this if I was the GF I would target a top player first since even if I lose that player I can then recruit another, no big loss. Unless we are getting some major scum tells from someone then the top player most likely is the scum, especially since they could conceivably hide it better.
I guess what I am saying is that while we shouldn't just target top players, that at least here on day 1 they are probably our must likely scum and it is better than choosing someone at random.
one other thing, I don't know that we should go with voting plan on the DTs, they should use their own intuition or go with the list method proposed. Voting could be swayed more by the mafia (though since they don't know the GF this may be irrelevant). Actually I take that back, having people vote on the DT regardless of if he follows it or not would give us more chances to catch cuplrits if we notice patterns in how they choose who he votes for.
On July 02 2010 02:18 rastaban wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On July 02 2010 02:04 lakrismamma wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2010 00:00 rastaban wrote:You make some valid points lakrimossa but 2 of them are not.
I think you are trying to lead us away from a good plan. L:s mulitipel jailkeepers wouldent be a problem since the blue would roleclaim to the mason.
Since townies can't PM this game (unless you are the mason / lover pair) there is no way to roleclaim to the a Mason without making it public which means the jailkeeper would die that night.
Masons are 2/19 which would mean 10.5 %. You seem good enough at match otherwise to know how to count overlapping. Why make such a big mistake?
He us adding in the fact that the jailer would have to cover the mason. Who ever the jailer protects can't be recruited (though the percent should probably be lower since if he protects the GF or either mason it doesn't add the third safe option) making 3 people a night unrecruitable.
You are right about the first thing. My bad. This makes everything harder and more useless to have a mason claim.
The second thing you are wrong about. Its still 2/19 for the masons the overlap is counted when you add the two possibilities together.
Show nested quote +On July 02 2010 01:06 YellowInk wrote:
A quick note to those of you trying to analyze my behavior:
If you read through the games I've played here (this is the fourth), you will find I have opened each game differently. This is for a few reasons which I might discuss in a general mafia thread, but it is primarily to make me unreadable.
There is no one strategy that 'convinces' people that one is town. If there were, scum would use it and town would be reduced to random voting and this game would be very boring. The best one can do is never be obvious scum. So that's all you're seeing.
Well if you are town then you would not play your own meta game but concentrate on getting the mafia..
You have not responded to any of my accusations either.
hmmm.... maybe he is referring to the fact that since 1 person is already recruited there now only 18 possibilities?
The jailer though only can't choose himself and can pick the mafia or GF which is why he is at 1/19.
Being a new player my analytical skills are abysmal (I tried guessing on the harry potter game before reading the results to that point and all but 1 of my conclusions had so far been wrong.) so I am trying the straight logical approach for now and that part of YI seems fairly sound.
Well I will stop defending him now because if he turns out scum I don't want my head on the line. o.O
On July 02 2010 03:33 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2010 02:22 Korynne wrote:
We block the top player if people vote on a top player to block, simple as that. I don't see why that is listed as a separate thing. If we all think top players are likely to be scum, then we roleblock them. This means that we don't kill our top players unnecessarily. We're not choosing someone random to roleblock. -.- We're choosing whoever we think is most likely to be mafia, as indicated by a pseudovote in this thread!
So a DT's intuition is better that a) getting more information because we can look at vote patterns, b) the "intuition" of all the town players, including the top players. This way we can eliminate people as GF for sure, which means even less overlap as DT because I doubt we have more than one DT to start with, and dream catcher should just check people who have not yet been checked.
This plan only works if RB/DT follow it.
It should work even if the DT doesn't follow it, since we will still benefit from the discussion of who could be GF and he will still have a list compiled. If the RB doesn't follow it then yes, there will be problems.
On July 02 2010 04:28 rastaban wrote:
##GF : Bill Murray
##mafia : Korynne
This way we cover both players, and if indeed Korynne is godfather she wouldn't get a chance to recruit tonight.
On July 02 2010 10:35 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2010 10:28 YellowInk wrote:
@DTA I think this was asked earlier but we didn't get an answer. What is the order of priorities in night actions? For instance, if you role block and recruit a given target, does it block the mafia KP? If you recruit and night kill a given target, does their body show up as mafia or town aligned?
For the 1st one it does not block the KP if they are blocked on the night they are recruited, (mod stated this a few pages back) so jailing them as well may be required.
On July 02 2010 10:36 rastaban wrote:
I don't know about the second one, don't kills usually resolve last? so I would think yes.
On July 02 2010 10:37 rastaban wrote:
And that was meant for DTA to answer, so i will just shut up now o.O
On July 02 2010 12:21 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 02 2010 12:09 Thegilaboy wrote:
So zeks will be our friendly townie leader? Sounds good to me, thank god he wasn't claiming jail keeper lol.
Which of the following should we base our lynch vote on:
1. Scumminess of posting
2. Inactivity
3. Likelihood they were the first mafia recruit
4. Some other factor
1&2 combined, 3 is too hard to get a read on right now.
Divinek is currently the least active person (baring browneY) He said he was working all day and that he is going to post soon. That was about 3 hours ago.
On July 02 2010 12:25 rastaban wrote:abenson has been inactive as well his excuse is canada day. If someone could contact the queen and verify he was there, then maybe we can classify it as a legit excuse
On July 02 2010 12:29 rastaban wrote:
Headed to bed, put my vote on Divinek until we get some actual content from him. I will re-assess in the morning.
On July 02 2010 23:06 rastaban wrote:
Though my vote on abenson because I want to hear more from him, but also because it looks like Elyas is up to 5 votes now, and I don't want to get too many votes on him until we are sure thats the direction we want to go.
On July 02 2010 23:06 rastaban wrote:
*through
I need to proofread more.
On July 02 2010 23:20 rastaban wrote:
I think there is good reason to suspect YI, maybe we roleblock him...
On July 02 2010 23:33 rastaban wrote:
He hasn't posted anything yet, and we haven't heard from the Mod (like we did with browney) so we should probably lynch him, though if we don't he will probably get modkilled since he isn't just being quiet, he hasn't said anything at all.
If we lynch someone who would be mod killed for not voting, does the modkill go through first and 2nd most voted person dies or does he die and get mod killed at the same time?
On July 03 2010 01:33 rastaban wrote:
Darth, if we lynch a no voter, do they get modkilled, if so is it before or after the lynch? Just wondering if instead the person with the second most votes would be killed.
Thanks (I mentioned this before but didn't include your name).
On July 03 2010 02:20 rastaban wrote:
The reason that Detective and Coroner are both listed where they are is that there actions happen even if they get recruited or killed that night. The results just comeback when the night ends.
So if the DT gets killed but he investigated the GF that night, he would still know who the GF was and could finger him with his death claim.
At least this is how I understand it to work.
On July 03 2010 02:51 rastaban wrote:
also the mafia can kill, not just recruit. So now they kill the coroner and recruit the jailer, who does dream catcher get? say he gets jailer so we lynch jailer. the second night the new jailer gets killed and the roleblocker recruited. We just traded 5 blues for 1 mafia this is not a valid plan.
On July 03 2010 02:54 rastaban wrote:
that was in response to A5Js idea but I got majorly ninja'd
On July 03 2010 02:57 rastaban wrote:
We really have to catch the GF though, even if we could lynch the new mafia 100% every day we would still lose since wouldn't ever catch the GF. Until he is dead killing mafia only delays the inevitable.the weird thing is that if we knew we had a mafia we would be better off roleblocking them and randomly lynching someone else since it would give us better odds on the GF.
On July 03 2010 04:12 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2010 03:45 Hesmyrr wrote:
Also since it should be beneficial to pick a candidate for roleblock before day ends, let me actively try to start an discussion: given a choice, should we choose to roleblock someone suspected of Mafia (blocks NK) or Godfather (blocks recruitment)?
Obviously Korynne's plan hinges on getting Mafia goon so we have some semblance of control over night death, but I rather like the idea of trying to roleblock Godfather too, since the # of successful recruitments he get off before dying is critical to the game's fate. Moreover by not shying away from RBing Godfather we can just choose to roleblock the scummiest player without worrying about details. We just need to remember in such case kill occurring in night does not necessarily mean the roleblocked player is town.
As for roleblock candidate, I propose rastaban. I first noticed him only because of his frequent vote switch, but I don't think this is that bad chocie at all. He is fairly active in the game, but is one of those player who did not attract that much attention of the town, due to YI / Korynne / Bill Murray hogging all the town's spotlight. I would appreciate it if you guys also started talking about who to roleblock (since lynch candidate this point seem to be decided as either ElyAs or Abenson) and why.
The problem with roleblocking the GF is that while it would be very productive, we have no way of knowing if it worked. Thats why the DT should consider getting a read on them even if the night kill isn't blocked.
On July 03 2010 08:49 rastaban wrote:I don't care who we lynch but I think we should try and get the roleblocker to block YI.
There are so many questionable posts from him that I think we need to know his alignment and that he is not mafia. Here is my case
+ Show Spoiler +Well, I wasn't recruited, and Chezinu is still the godfather. Lets get this party started.
The level 2 godfather might be very active to escape any such scrutiny, though probably not spouting out a plan like I am here.
Yo, obviously (lol) not scum here.
Here I present 3 denials from him that he is scum, one did come after BM made an accusation, but it strikes me as odd, no one else has tried to drop so many townie declarations.
+ Show Spoiler +If I were the godfather, I would have recruited a top player.
Hey Godfather. How about you just give yourself up? That'll give this game 19 winners. Take one for the team.
Here we have to 'Boast' posts if he is indeed scum. Of course saying you posts are scummy if you were scum is a logical fallacy, but I think they do weigh more scummy than most posts so far
+ Show Spoiler +If you read through the games I've played here (this is the fourth), you will find I have opened each game differently. This is for a few reasons which I might discuss in a general mafia thread, but it is primarily to make me unreadable.
Here we have an explanation for the actions, that every game is played differently the problem is that as we are town it makes it hard for us to get a read on him which makes it slightly anti-town play. This doesn't mean he is scum but it gives him an answer for anything we accuse him of since there is no baseline
+ Show Spoiler +zeks = silent -> claiming mason supposedly forcing us to L's plan? I don't buy it.
This here was so scummy that it almost clears him as scum probably wouldn't do that. I think he really just hadn't thought it out and was afraid we took it to easily at face value. As such I think a lynch would be a terrible choice on him, but I think that with this many items we should really go with roleblock.
On July 03 2010 08:49 rastaban wrote:
As such I would like to vote YellowInk for roleblock night 1
##Vote YellowInk
On July 03 2010 09:01 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2010 08:56 Abenson wrote:On July 03 2010 08:36 YellowInk wrote:
Even if no lynch were an option (it isn't), I would not advocate it. Each night mafia are getting a recruit and a kill aside from failures. That's a huge red swing. We cannot play a waiting game. We need to force people to talk until we hit the godfather - whether because he chose to lay too low too long or because he stepped out of line and gets smacked for it.
I must admit, you're right.
However, if we lynch randomly we are losing townies at a rapid pace. We lost 1 townie from lynch, and another from mafia recruitment each night.
However, by not making a random lynch on day 1, we would end up with 17 townies, 3 mafia instead of 16 townie, 3 mafia.
Your thoughts?
We are already at 17 townies 2 mafia and a traitor so even if we lynch someone who would be modkilled it will start as 15 townies 3 mafia and a traitor (without a roleblock or other contingency hapening)
On July 03 2010 09:25 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2010 09:15 Abenson wrote:On July 03 2010 09:01 rastaban wrote:On July 03 2010 08:56 Abenson wrote:On July 03 2010 08:36 YellowInk wrote:
Even if no lynch were an option (it isn't), I would not advocate it. Each night mafia are getting a recruit and a kill aside from failures. That's a huge red swing. We cannot play a waiting game. We need to force people to talk until we hit the godfather - whether because he chose to lay too low too long or because he stepped out of line and gets smacked for it.
I must admit, you're right.
However, if we lynch randomly we are losing townies at a rapid pace. We lost 1 townie from lynch, and another from mafia recruitment each night.
However, by not making a random lynch on day 1, we would end up with 17 townies, 3 mafia instead of 16 townie, 3 mafia.
Your thoughts?
We are already at 17 townies 2 mafia and a traitor so even if we lynch someone who would be modkilled it will start as 15 townies 3 mafia and a traitor (without a roleblock or other contingency hapening)
I see.
Yea, I forgot that there are traitors in the game.
Sure, but of course I'm looking for solutions that does not involve lynching me.
Well if we are going for inactives, maybe we should be hanging L instead. The other option is lynch you and then have you play as Elyas :D ok maybe not and I don't know if that would be allowed but it is an idea.
On July 03 2010 09:55 rastaban wrote:L is the GF so it is ok
Hey, I can wish can't I.
Darth, are we allowed to post during the night cycles?
On July 03 2010 10:03 rastaban wrote:
Thanks for the <3 L, I take back that part about you being GF.
On July 03 2010 10:09 rastaban wrote:
On July 03 2010 09:18 youngminii wrote:
citi.zen - 2 (Korynne, BM)
Korynne - 1 (Chezinu)
YellowInk - 5 (lakrismamma, youngminii, rastaban, Abenson, BrownBear)
rastaban - 1 (Hesmyrr)
To Roleblocker: If the majority doesn't change, please roleblock YellowInk.
On July 03 2010 10:13 rastaban wrote:
What about for lynch, Abenson is getting close to lynch, and I don't think we have any eveidence to support that since he has started speaking up.
On July 03 2010 10:20 rastaban wrote:
He seems to be acting town townie though, not a hint of a role claim and no real defense. Mafia or GF would probably fight harder, to me he seems like a disinterested townie without a role.
On July 03 2010 10:29 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2010 10:23 L wrote:
And Elyas is different? Its way too late to get someone else bussed in, so we're pretty much forced to policy lynch and pick the least shitty out of the two candidates.
you are probably right, and most of the votes for Elyas aren't from people on right now so too late to do anything.
On July 03 2010 10:31 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2010 10:25 L wrote:On July 03 2010 10:22 citi.zen wrote:On July 03 2010 10:17 L wrote:
I'd prefer the following Idea when it comes to roleblocking:
Each of us should vote for 3 people we think we should roleblock. Out of the top 3 candidates, the roleblocker himself selects one and tells no one of his choice. In doing this, the threat of the easy lynch/recruitment is lessened, and mafia can't decide to frame people by selectively opting for no-hits.
The only issue is that on day 3 we'd need the roleblocker to come out and say what's goin on, but day 3 is already our do or die day. We can switch the jailer to him perpetually thereafter if there is no counter claim. There's a 1/8 chance, or so, that the roleblocker is recruited prior to that point, but given how the coroner works and how mafia can manipulate their own hits, I don't see a superior alternative.
That said, I'd be very accomodating to tossing yellowink into the first pool of 3. Better then killing a potentially good player.
Wait, wouldn't this defeat the whole purpose here?
If we're chain blocking the same person twice, there's no action that needs to be taken on a no-hit night before day 3 anyways.
Don't see how this defeats the purpose, but feel free to tell me.
we lose the benefit knowing who was and wasn't scum that night. How do you see the mafia abusing the method of us RBing someone specific?
On July 03 2010 10:44 rastaban wrote:
our 3rd day lynch for 2 mafia KP is worth it because we will also get to lynches in between to target the GF, that is something the mafia can't wait for.
On July 03 2010 10:53 rastaban wrote:
Worse case scenario goes like this
now 17/3 (2 mob + 1 traitor)
day 2: 14/4
day 3: 11/5
day 4: 7/6 - if we hang GF this night
day 5: 6/5 - we have to be right every night from this point on or lose,
I would say though, that we are unlikely to be THAT unlucky so day 4 would be more likely
8/5 which puts us in a bad place but I would say day 4 is most important.
Not sure if my day 4 is your day 3, and I am not trying to argue for or against any claims with this just want to put the numbers out there.
On July 03 2010 10:57 rastaban wrote:
With so many people unable to vote on Ls new plan I say we go with the old and then modify it for night 2 if needed.
Final tally was by my count:
citi.zen - 2 (Korynne, BM)
Korynne - 1 (Chezinu)
YellowInk - 5 (lakrismamma, youngminii, rastaban, Abenson, BrownBear)
rastaban - 1 (Hesmyrr)
To Roleblocker: If the majority doesn't change, please roleblock YellowInk.
On July 03 2010 11:02 rastaban wrote:
yeah, but we would be at 9/6 at worst and I think 9/5 is more likely.
On July 03 2010 11:04 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2010 10:59 L wrote:On July 03 2010 10:57 rastaban wrote:
With so many people unable to vote on Ls new plan I say we go with the old and then modify it for night 2 if needed.
Final tally was by my count:
citi.zen - 2 (Korynne, BM)
Korynne - 1 (Chezinu)
YellowInk - 5 (lakrismamma, youngminii, rastaban, Abenson, BrownBear)
rastaban - 1 (Hesmyrr)
To Roleblocker: If the majority doesn't change, please roleblock YellowInk.
Roleblocker acts during the night. We have 24 hours to talk about this.
You are right, so I guess I would say if the RB has to leave before it is resolved go with this plan. Otherwise, wait it out until we are sure on what is the best plan.
On July 03 2010 11:14 rastaban wrote:
Going to watch the Day[9] daily I missed earlier this week, check back in an hour.
On July 03 2010 11:28 rastaban wrote:
ok, I was thinking (dangerous I know), and I think I found a big problem with the 3 pick plan.
We are forecasting our move. If I was mafia I would love that, because the only way it would work is if one of the three was the day 1 pick. Worse yet, we wouldn't know which it was till day 3. so we are trading 3 nights of RB for at most 1 mafia. As the GF, I know that I can recruit anyone besides those 3 players for the next 3 nights and they definitely won't be role blocked. We are kind of saying, hey GF these three players you can't recruit, but feel free to grab anyone else.
I might be missing something, but it just seems to useful for the mafia to know that far in advance who we are after.
With the first plan we are telegraphing our move, but only 1 day in advance and we know the result the next day. They won't know who our day 2 pick is going to be so they can't be certain it isn't one of the 2 mafia members they chose.
sorry, thought of this as I went for my day[9] snack and decided to post it to see if I was off track on this.
On July 03 2010 12:39 rastaban wrote:lets hope that both lovers are mafia when they go down
Headed to be night all, catch up 2morrow.
On July 04 2010 02:54 rastaban wrote:
going to be installing windows 7 over my XP machine so off-line for a while today. since it is night and there isn't really too much to do it shouldn't matter(too much).
On July 05 2010 02:40 rastaban wrote:Yay installation completed. Wow, sucks to have loss the coroner.
Show nested quote +In case of claim conflict, I see no viable plan to counter so except good old hard method of analytical scumhunting.
This and luck seems to be the only real choices we have. Keep in mid though we can double lynch if needed.
I had forgot the GF has to lives so hoping the mafia kill him isn't going to be helpful.
The one defense I see against the mafia claiming to be DT is that they don't know who the GF is. they could be giving us the GF without realizing it. And I doubt the GF would attempt that since he would be targeted by the real DT the next night for sure.
On July 05 2010 15:28 rastaban wrote:
Sorry I was so inactive today, (was at 4th of july celebration)
I am headed to bed, I have read through the posts but will do so again and write up my thoughts as I am off tomorrow from work.
On July 06 2010 05:28 rastaban wrote:
Trying to be objective here, this is what I see as pro/cons with the role claim.
This is working on the assumption of 1 of each role, there could be more or less but I will take it as an average.
of the 20 people we have 9 roles (2 anti-town) we also have 4 mason/lovers that may or may not overlap.
if we do role claims we can expect ~11 townies and 7 blue roles when claiming.
PROs - Mafia will be forced to blend and decide what roles to use, will probably need to claim later so as not draw attention to themselves. Will allow us to better direct blue roles
Cons - Blues killed, blues recruited, some characters made useless (veteran and mad hatter to a degree), no way to confirm roles
It is a risky play. If we net the GF first round then it would be worth it, but we don't have that assurance making this a big risk/reward play.
I am a new player, but in this style of game no one has much experience. This makes it difficult because we can't look back and say well roleclaiming day 2 has been successful or failed. This applies to all of our plans. I think the big thing is to decide if a plan is useful or not.
Currently due to the confusion the only real plan that is in use is the 1 mason roleclaim. The reason that worked is only 1 person (the mason) had to be on board for it to work. The issue with plans comes back again to not having a definitive way of deciding if a plan is good or bad. This is equally true of the mafia, which is why it is hard to find scum tells since they don't know if the plan is good for them or not. The GF doesn't know which is better either or which will make him less likely to be caught.
Right now if we lynch 1 tonight and 2 the next 2 nights we have just over 1/3 chances of getting the GF. Now besides that we also have the blues, which means that a lot of the game is up to chance.
If a plan doesn't give us better odds or more information than no plan then it is obviously a bad plan. Looking at the role claim Idea, it hurts the odds, but gives us more information. Since we can't verify that information, I have to think that it isn't worth the cost.
On July 06 2010 07:02 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2010 06:25 Hesmyrr wrote:
Another concern of mine is that today's deadline is July 06 11:05, namely five hours from now. In order for this mass role-claim plan to be effective we need to have enough time for ALL people to claim, then organize the mess and confusion to specifically target unclear Townies; thus I propose an alternative: We mass-claim tomorrow immediately after the day begins, and vote for double lynch consecutively for two days. I know effectiveness of mass claim in this setup decreases over time, but I think this provision is necessary since partial claiming by select number of townies right before the day is about to end (followed by recruitable night) is kinda bad. I rather have one investigation off rather than none anyway.
I have to leave at 7:10 so voting for Abenson. My reasoning is that, like some have said, he is confusing Townie and his probability of being godfather is just as equal as anyone else. Since I expect the game to reach critical point on d3 with all the mass claims, I rather take mysterious Joker card out of the deck before that time arrives.
I agree with waiting, though I will leave it up to more experienced minds on if we should role claim tomorrow.
On July 06 2010 11:12 rastaban wrote:
Looks like we are losing L and bumatlarge, and tomorrow we find who they all were. Tomorrow is going to crazy important.
On July 06 2010 12:20 rastaban wrote:
Divinek, did you start as coroner, or were you as dream catcher? Just trying to see if we can confirm that there is at least 1 role that we have doubles of. I had thought it was likely we only had 1 of each, if not then this is really good news for town.
Thanks!
On July 06 2010 12:39 rastaban wrote:Thanks,that is interesting I wonder what if any other double roles we have....
On July 06 2010 23:41 rastaban wrote:
With mass roleclaim and coroner info tomorrow it will be the big day, I assume it is ok to go ahead and vote for double lynch.
On July 07 2010 07:32 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2010 06:25 YellowInk wrote:
BM if I find out you are town this game I'm going to ::headdesk::
To try to get town on track, is there anything we need to discuss tonight? I don't think there is unless there are still people on the roleclaim plan. Then I must dispel your notions.
I kind of like the role claim plan, it seems that we are enter a do or die situation and this may be our last chance. If we don't get the GF or are very lucky with lynchs/blocks I don't see how we can fix things after tomorrow night.
Of course I am a new player and may be missing something, don't you think it needs done before it is too late?
On July 07 2010 11:22 rastaban wrote:Dead traitor is such great town news, 2 for 1 is spectacular
On July 07 2010 13:07 rastaban wrote:Show nested quote +On July 07 2010 12:23 youngminii wrote:
Lol okay in light of what just happened, I suggest the following strategy:
We are fairly sure that I'm Detective and that citi.zen is GF. There is reasonable evidence that it is so. There is also the scumminess of BM's posts (why would he defend citi.zen after his blatant error?). He also tells DT to claim when I've already claimed.
So, here's what I think. Jailer should jail me. I'll check BM. Roleblocker should block YI or some other person that people think is scum. That way, we can check BM and YI at once.
I for one don't think YI is scum. I think BM might be scum. I think there's enough evidence to prove that I am really a DT and that citi.zen is a liar.
I don't want to be roleblocked simply because that is wasting a DT check.
I just wanted to point out I think this post lends credibility to youngminii's claim.
1. He hasn't been called on being the DT yet (except by the person he pointed out and that was obviously a false claim) The only way I see this working correctly is if he was the DT and was recruited last night since he would know it was unlikely to be a counter claim.
2. In this post he doesn't push for a double lynch. I think the mafia would need to utilize this play to force a double lynch to make it viable. Without it they are sacrificing 2 mafia for little gain.
Would it make sense for us to ask if there are any other coroners, even if unlikely, that they pop tonight?
On July 07 2010 13:30 rastaban wrote:also, sorry if my previous post was confusing, I was trying to say that Young was most likely town since he didn't call for double lynch and not suggesting we should double lynch.
Also for your list Chezinu, I believe zeks said Abenson was Townie so he should be green, not blue.... well unless lovers means blue in which case I should just shut up
/
On July 07 2010 13:36 rastaban wrote:
Grrr, Now I am posting ridiculous things as well. I think that means I need to head to bed.
sorry Zeks my apologies! You are the mason, I had you confused with Divinek the lover who claimed and said Abenson was the other part of the pair.
On July 08 2010 14:15 rastaban wrote:
Sorry to hear that BB, can't you just reserve a copy and get in? If not I might have an extra key if I can find my receipt.
On July 08 2010 14:16 rastaban wrote:
anyway I have been following the discussions but don't know what would be helpful to contribute until tomorrow when we get some results.
On July 09 2010 12:11 rastaban wrote:
I have been following this, but didn't have really anything to add.
EPT
