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On August 26 2023 02:21 JimmiC wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 02:12 TaKeTV wrote:On August 26 2023 02:00 JimmiC wrote:On August 26 2023 01:12 TaKeTV wrote:
I guess its rather an impression than a view which in itself can be a metric but should obviously be accounted for It includes if it scrolls on your screen, it’s worthless when it’s being pushed. I agree but its used in statistics. YouTube afaik has impressions too if your video gets suggested/shown (not just endcard, but just in any sort of form sidebar, homescreen etc pp) Obviously both are algorythmic driven so I rate impressions as low as anyone (you say worthless) but its something others work with I guess. Fundamentally I agree with your point of view though - just wanted to clarify that impressions are used Do advertisers pay based on impressions, because if so that seems like a scam. Many wouldn’t even see the program let alone the ad.
Advertisers pay per view on google. Actually if people skip ads within the 5 seconds the advertiser doesn't pay (nor does the creator get paid). The question would be why does anyone keep track of impressions?
My assumption is impressions are simply to give a creator information about the rest of the statistics
last 28 days on my private youtube
impressions: 242000
clicks: 10600
clickrate: 2.9%
So maybe just go put it into perspective or something? "Potential of interaction"
Overall as I said I agree that its simply nothing you can really act on or promote.
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On August 26 2023 01:58 GreenHorizons wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 20:01 Gorsameth wrote:On August 25 2023 19:47 Simberto wrote:On August 25 2023 19:43 Gorsameth wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? It seriously seems like anyone not called Trump has no chance at all. But Trump might go to prison, right? I assume that you can not be elected when you are in prison? You absolutely can, and people have run for office from prison in the past (unsuccessfully) The only limit the constitution places (via the 14th amendment), crime wise, is that you can't have been convicted of insurrection or rebellion. Now plenty of here would say that Trump has engaged in exactly that with his attempts to overturn the election, but I'm not sure if he is being specifically being charged with insurrection. Moreover they basically all said they'd be supporting him for president if he was running from prison anyway. Worth noting Trump was already selling merch with his mugshot on it a couple hours after it was taken. Surprised DPB didn't mention that they are all seeking to crush teachers unions into oblivion, if not abolish public education altogether.However the 2024 election goes, it's going to be a rough ride to get to 2030 (when we'll fly past the drop-dead dates for countless unmet goals on mitigating global ecological catastrophe)
Yeahhhhhh  They definitely had some things to say about that which frustrated me, but I mentally grouped that all under my written phrase of "The usual school choice" crap. I didn't want to dwell too much on their anti-education stance when that only encompassed a few minutes of the entire debate. They didn't say anything we haven't already heard from them before.
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On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all?
Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves.
The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere.
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On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere.
I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate.
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On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate.
This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything.
If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that.
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On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that.
Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why?
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On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why?
Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65 (or maybe its 65 overall for both cant check atm). I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers).
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On August 26 2023 07:03 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why? Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65. I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers). That final thing is something I haven't seen much talked about but I do think its interesting.
With Trumps PAC paying for his legal trouble, how is he going to afford to actually run a campaign?
He got tons of free air time back in 2016 by the media devouring his lunacy but I question if he can repeat that. It was new and unprecedented back then, but its old news and repetitive now.
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On August 26 2023 07:03 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why? Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65 (or maybe its 65 overall for both cant check atm). I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers).
I don't really mean the semantics that you're referring to; I'm referring to his line in the data set that has been decreasing steadily, even faster than Trump's has been increasing.
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On August 26 2023 08:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 07:03 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why? Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65 (or maybe its 65 overall for both cant check atm). I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers). I don't really mean the semantics that you're referring to; I'm referring to his line in the data set that has been decreasing steadily, even faster than Trump's has been increasing.
Well those things are kind of important, because even though he's not at his high, he's sill just as popular in the GOP as Trump is. So I think with that in mind you have to look somewhere besides "oh he messed up by doing x,y,z" and should consider other factors. I think the two things I previously mentioned explain it: the end of a post-election high and rally around Trump after these indictments. Other smaller candidates who announced after the start of the year may have also taken a point here or there and it will be his job to convince the party to unite around him so that someone besides Trump can be the nominee and beat Biden. We'll see how that goes, he has a bunch of state legislative endorsements and most of the GOP governors are on his side, though not explicitly yet.
TL:DR- The DeSantis favorables remain very high in the GOP so I'm not sure his "decline" is his fault, I think it was a post-election bump that faded, espeically after the Trump indictments. All of Trump's attacks on DeSantis haven't stuck, he hasn't made the GOP turn on him like he's been able to do to some others.
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On August 26 2023 11:16 Introvert wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 08:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 07:03 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why? Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65 (or maybe its 65 overall for both cant check atm). I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers). I don't really mean the semantics that you're referring to; I'm referring to his line in the data set that has been decreasing steadily, even faster than Trump's has been increasing. Well those things are kind of important, because even though he's not at his high, he's sill just as popular in the GOP as Trump is. So I think with that in mind you have to look somewhere besides "oh he messed up by doing x,y,z" and should consider other factors. I think the two things I previously mentioned explain it: the end of a post-election high and rally around Trump after these indictments. Other smaller candidates who announced after the start of the year may have also taken a point here or there and it will be his job to convince the party to unite around him so that someone besides Trump can be the nominee and beat Biden. We'll see how that goes, he has a bunch of state legislative endorsements and most of the GOP governors are on his side, though not explicitly yet. TL:DR- The DeSantis favorables remain very high in the GOP so I'm not sure his "decline" is his fault, I think it was a post-election bump that faded, espeically after the Trump indictments. All of Trump's attacks on DeSantis haven't stuck, he hasn't made the GOP turn on him like he's been able to do to some others.
He's clearly not, because Trump is heavily preferred over DeSantis. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you're saying. Are you saying that Republican voters would be just as likely to vote for DeSantis in the general election as Trump in the general election? That's fine, but that's not what I'm talking about. DeSantis is currently being crushed in the primary by Trump. If DeSantis and Trump were both equally popular in the primary, then we wouldn't see the graph I cited in the 538 link - Trump slightly rising in the polls from 43% to 52%, and DeSantis significantly dropping in the polls from 40% to 15% - and this (also from the 538 link):
If the Republican primary election happened today, DeSantis would be annihilated by Trump. Perhaps I could put this another way: It doesn't matter how well DeSantis would do in the general election, if he can't win the primary, because then he won't make it to the general election. Personally, I think the reason why DeSantis has been falling so precipitously in the Republican primary is because his lack of charisma becomes more evident as he does more and more of his recent photo ops (visiting a local restaurant, dishing out food at a festival, etc.). He seems awkward and out of place - not really personable or "just a normal guy", as you had written. He doesn't have any folksy charm, and I think he just fades into unimportance when there isn't a spotlight already created for him. I can't speak to his Florida victory - Florida has been... weird... for quite some time now - but the Republican primary is about the entire country, not just Florida.
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On August 26 2023 20:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 11:16 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 08:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 07:03 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why? Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65 (or maybe its 65 overall for both cant check atm). I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers). I don't really mean the semantics that you're referring to; I'm referring to his line in the data set that has been decreasing steadily, even faster than Trump's has been increasing. Well those things are kind of important, because even though he's not at his high, he's sill just as popular in the GOP as Trump is. So I think with that in mind you have to look somewhere besides "oh he messed up by doing x,y,z" and should consider other factors. I think the two things I previously mentioned explain it: the end of a post-election high and rally around Trump after these indictments. Other smaller candidates who announced after the start of the year may have also taken a point here or there and it will be his job to convince the party to unite around him so that someone besides Trump can be the nominee and beat Biden. We'll see how that goes, he has a bunch of state legislative endorsements and most of the GOP governors are on his side, though not explicitly yet. TL:DR- The DeSantis favorables remain very high in the GOP so I'm not sure his "decline" is his fault, I think it was a post-election bump that faded, espeically after the Trump indictments. All of Trump's attacks on DeSantis haven't stuck, he hasn't made the GOP turn on him like he's been able to do to some others. He's clearly not, because Trump is heavily preferred over DeSantis. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you're saying. Are you saying that Republican voters would be just as likely to vote for DeSantis in the general election as Trump in the general election? That's fine, but that's not what I'm talking about. DeSantis is currently being crushed in the primary by Trump. If DeSantis and Trump were both equally popular in the primary, then we wouldn't see the graph I cited in the 538 link - Trump slightly rising in the polls from 43% to 52%, and DeSantis significantly dropping in the polls from 40% to 15% - and this (also from the 538 link): ![[image loading]](https://i.imgur.com/m5Wm2Cq.png) If the Republican primary election happened today, DeSantis would be annihilated by Trump. Perhaps I could put this another way: It doesn't matter how well DeSantis would do in the general election, if he can't win the primary, because then he won't make it to the general election. Personally, I think the reason why DeSantis has been falling so precipitously in the Republican primary is because his lack of charisma becomes more evident as he does more and more of his recent photo ops (visiting a local restaurant, dishing out food at a festival, etc.). He seems awkward and out of place - not really personable or "just a normal guy", as you had written. He doesn't have any folksy charm, and I think he just fades into unimportance when there isn't a spotlight already created for him. I can't speak to his Florida victory - Florida has been... weird... for quite some time now - but the Republican primary is about the entire country, not just Florida.
I think Introvert already explained it quite clearly.
In a head to head, Republicans can't choose both of them. When forced to make a choice, they overwhelmingly pick Trump, due to the pseudo incumbency factor and what they see as Trump being martyred by the dems who would stop at nothing to get elected.
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On August 26 2023 20:54 gobbledydook wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 20:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 11:16 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 08:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 07:03 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:On August 25 2023 19:16 Simberto wrote:
So, was there anyone in there that I would call not insane? Some sliver of hope for the republican party, or just more and more down the crazy hole?
And if yes, did that person have a chance at all? Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves. The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why? Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65 (or maybe its 65 overall for both cant check atm). I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers). I don't really mean the semantics that you're referring to; I'm referring to his line in the data set that has been decreasing steadily, even faster than Trump's has been increasing. Well those things are kind of important, because even though he's not at his high, he's sill just as popular in the GOP as Trump is. So I think with that in mind you have to look somewhere besides "oh he messed up by doing x,y,z" and should consider other factors. I think the two things I previously mentioned explain it: the end of a post-election high and rally around Trump after these indictments. Other smaller candidates who announced after the start of the year may have also taken a point here or there and it will be his job to convince the party to unite around him so that someone besides Trump can be the nominee and beat Biden. We'll see how that goes, he has a bunch of state legislative endorsements and most of the GOP governors are on his side, though not explicitly yet. TL:DR- The DeSantis favorables remain very high in the GOP so I'm not sure his "decline" is his fault, I think it was a post-election bump that faded, espeically after the Trump indictments. All of Trump's attacks on DeSantis haven't stuck, he hasn't made the GOP turn on him like he's been able to do to some others. He's clearly not, because Trump is heavily preferred over DeSantis. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you're saying. Are you saying that Republican voters would be just as likely to vote for DeSantis in the general election as Trump in the general election? That's fine, but that's not what I'm talking about. DeSantis is currently being crushed in the primary by Trump. If DeSantis and Trump were both equally popular in the primary, then we wouldn't see the graph I cited in the 538 link - Trump slightly rising in the polls from 43% to 52%, and DeSantis significantly dropping in the polls from 40% to 15% - and this (also from the 538 link): If the Republican primary election happened today, DeSantis would be annihilated by Trump. Perhaps I could put this another way: It doesn't matter how well DeSantis would do in the general election, if he can't win the primary, because then he won't make it to the general election. Personally, I think the reason why DeSantis has been falling so precipitously in the Republican primary is because his lack of charisma becomes more evident as he does more and more of his recent photo ops (visiting a local restaurant, dishing out food at a festival, etc.). He seems awkward and out of place - not really personable or "just a normal guy", as you had written. He doesn't have any folksy charm, and I think he just fades into unimportance when there isn't a spotlight already created for him. I can't speak to his Florida victory - Florida has been... weird... for quite some time now - but the Republican primary is about the entire country, not just Florida. I think Introvert already explained it quite clearly. In a head to head, Republicans can't choose both of them. When forced to make a choice, they overwhelmingly pick Trump, due to the pseudo incumbency factor and what they see as Trump being martyred by the dems who would stop at nothing to get elected.
Trump has been the pseudo-incumbent for years though, which might explain why Trump started off with the most popularity, but doesn't really explain why Trump's popularity has been recently increasing while DeSantis's has been recently decreasing (unless some Republicans are now just realizing that Trump is the pseudo-incumbent, which I doubt).
Perhaps the recent indictments against Trump have played a role in his increasing popularity by Republicans, but that still can't fully account for DeSantis's decreasing popularity: Trump has increased about 10%, and while most of that would be taken from DeSantis (since he's been in second place with the most support to proportionally lose), DeSantis has lost 25%, not just 10%. Out of the 25% popularity that DeSantis has lost, 10% might have been rerouted to Trump due to Trump's indictments, but there's still an extra 15% of DeSantis's support that has been rerouted to the less popular candidates (Ramaswamy and the others). Therefore, DeSantis's lost ground can be partially explained by Trump, but also either means that DeSantis is losing steam on his own or that less popular candidates are also gaining steam (and taking from DeSantis).
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On August 26 2023 21:30 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2023 20:54 gobbledydook wrote:On August 26 2023 20:01 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 11:16 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 08:18 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 07:03 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 04:22 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 03:43 Introvert wrote:On August 26 2023 03:04 DarkPlasmaBall wrote:On August 26 2023 02:57 oBlade wrote:
[quote]
Something like 1.5 of them were sane enough to declare they would support the leader of their party (the opposition party) despite him being legally attacked by the party in power. As far as hope of them winning the nomination, most people say none, but that's what we heard in 2016 too. One signal is a lot of serious or well known voices like Johnson, Paul, Cruz, Kennedy, Graham, aren't even in the process - normally the point of the US primary debates is it's the best open way for the parties to actually contest what they think inside each other and decide their platforms and focus. Even people who have no chance of winning, they contribute to the conversation and end result in this way. A lot of them aren't even there, which suggests the recent shift in the platform has mostly already happened and the current alliances are pretty well settled. People overestimate the potential appeal of the likes of Chris Christie or Nikki Haley or Mike Pence - perhaps even themselves.
The issue is Trump is the only one with enough of the political capital among both the people and also among politicians to really move the country. DeSantis needs to be governing Florida and is hopefully just rehearsing 2028. Vivek's appeal is not to be underestimated though, and the drivers of his success are worth Republicans analyzing because he doesn't seem like he's going to fizzle anytime soon. Many "outsiders" get nowhere. I agree with you that Ron DeSantis may very well end up being a contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nominee, assuming he is able to stay in the limelight for the next 4 years. The dude has like zero charm and people skills though, and a lot of his positions are even more to the right of Trump, so even with Trump out of the picture, he'll have at best a moderate chance of winning his own primary or the general election in 2028. With Biden out of the picture too, someone charismatic and well-spoken like Gavin Newsom would crush DeSantis in a 2028 general debate. This take pops up a lot but it basically backwards reasoning from disliking him. He's just a normal guy, and you don't win a swing state by 20 being too awkward. See to me, Newsom comes off as the unholy mashup of a dishonest used car salesman and a movie villain. And he's in CA which is overwhelmingly media market driven (the state has too many distinct, large population centers for regular retail politicking. That's why Kamala Harris can be elected senator but have no appeal to anyone at all). It's also a D state where the journalists, who love that he plays to their issues, stay on his side, for the most part. Newsom has never had to seriously debate his ideas with anyone on the right, his political talent is exclusively in maneuvering within the left-wing coalition where he talks big about social issues so it lets him play a little bit closer to the center economically (this is a relative scale). I will say this though. The man lies more easily than just about anyone. He will say literally anything. If the Newsom/DeSantis debate happens in a few months, the easiest prediction of my life will be that both sides declare their guy the winner. They are both talented enough politicians for that. Perhaps related, or perhaps not: What do you think the main reasons are for DeSantis's popularity plummeting in the Republican primary polls? From around 35-40% in Jan/Feb, steadily declining to around 15% in August: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ Trump's popularity increased a little bit over the past half-year, but it seems like most of DeSantis's lost ground was a dilution that was spread throughout the less popular candidates. Any ideas why? Well not to be nitpicky but his favorablility rating with Republicans is still sky high , about tied with Trump at approx +65 (or maybe its 65 overall for both cant check atm). I think his little bump was related to the fact that he wildly overperformed in what was a disappointing midterm for Republicans. So some is a reversion back to the mean. However, Trump got a significant boost after the first, rediculous indictment by Bragg in NY. So DeSantis hasn't become less popular in the party, it's just that Trump is running as a quasi-incumbent (most presidents who lose go away) and there has been a rally around Trump. So it's more a matter trying to convince Republicans he's the better option without attacking Trump in ways Democrats would. Going full Liz Cheney would sink him, so it's a slow work in progress. Will it succeed? Who knows, it's certainly worth a try. We'll see how Iowa and NH go, especially as bad news for Trump mounts and his money problems continue (at least it's assumed he's having trouble with cash, he's burning through a lot paying lawyers). I don't really mean the semantics that you're referring to; I'm referring to his line in the data set that has been decreasing steadily, even faster than Trump's has been increasing. Well those things are kind of important, because even though he's not at his high, he's sill just as popular in the GOP as Trump is. So I think with that in mind you have to look somewhere besides "oh he messed up by doing x,y,z" and should consider other factors. I think the two things I previously mentioned explain it: the end of a post-election high and rally around Trump after these indictments. Other smaller candidates who announced after the start of the year may have also taken a point here or there and it will be his job to convince the party to unite around him so that someone besides Trump can be the nominee and beat Biden. We'll see how that goes, he has a bunch of state legislative endorsements and most of the GOP governors are on his side, though not explicitly yet. TL:DR- The DeSantis favorables remain very high in the GOP so I'm not sure his "decline" is his fault, I think it was a post-election bump that faded, espeically after the Trump indictments. All of Trump's attacks on DeSantis haven't stuck, he hasn't made the GOP turn on him like he's been able to do to some others. He's clearly not, because Trump is heavily preferred over DeSantis. Maybe I'm just misunderstanding what you're saying. Are you saying that Republican voters would be just as likely to vote for DeSantis in the general election as Trump in the general election? That's fine, but that's not what I'm talking about. DeSantis is currently being crushed in the primary by Trump. If DeSantis and Trump were both equally popular in the primary, then we wouldn't see the graph I cited in the 538 link - Trump slightly rising in the polls from 43% to 52%, and DeSantis significantly dropping in the polls from 40% to 15% - and this (also from the 538 link): If the Republican primary election happened today, DeSantis would be annihilated by Trump. Perhaps I could put this another way: It doesn't matter how well DeSantis would do in the general election, if he can't win the primary, because then he won't make it to the general election. Personally, I think the reason why DeSantis has been falling so precipitously in the Republican primary is because his lack of charisma becomes more evident as he does more and more of his recent photo ops (visiting a local restaurant, dishing out food at a festival, etc.). He seems awkward and out of place - not really personable or "just a normal guy", as you had written. He doesn't have any folksy charm, and I think he just fades into unimportance when there isn't a spotlight already created for him. I can't speak to his Florida victory - Florida has been... weird... for quite some time now - but the Republican primary is about the entire country, not just Florida. I think Introvert already explained it quite clearly. In a head to head, Republicans can't choose both of them. When forced to make a choice, they overwhelmingly pick Trump, due to the pseudo incumbency factor and what they see as Trump being martyred by the dems who would stop at nothing to get elected. Trump has been the pseudo-incumbent for years though, which might explain why Trump started off with the most popularity, but doesn't really explain why Trump's popularity has been recently increasing while DeSantis's has been recently decreasing (unless some Republicans are now just realizing that Trump is the pseudo-incumbent, which I doubt). Perhaps the recent indictments against Trump have played a role in his increasing popularity by Republicans, but that still can't fully account for DeSantis's decreasing popularity: Trump has increased about 10%, and while most of that would be taken from DeSantis (since he's been in second place with the most support to proportionally lose), DeSantis has lost 25%, not just 10%. Out of the 25% popularity that DeSantis has lost, 10% might have been rerouted to Trump due to Trump's indictments, but there's still an extra 15% of DeSantis's support that has been rerouted to the less popular candidates (Ramaswamy and the others). Therefore, DeSantis's lost ground can be partially explained by Trump, but also either means that DeSantis is losing steam on his own or that less popular candidates are also gaining steam (and taking from DeSantis).
I'm saying part of it was phantasmal, it was never something was going to last. DeSantis hit his highest point before he even announced. 40% in 538 and 30% in RCP (RCP doesn't do any adjusting on the poll numbers). I'm also using RCP because their graph goes back further and shows a longer trendline. This was after a weak midterm where Trumpy candidates lost all over the place. Trump is indicted April 4th by Bragg (but it was in the news a few weeks before) and you see almost instantly Trump rise and RDS fall. There are slight differences: RCP shows RDS holding stead before the indictment, but 538 shows a slow decline leading up to it, however at 538 he started higher so he had further to fall. Either way, both the RDS high point and the indictment are before RDS even starts his campaign, which was May 24. Both sets of numbers show him down only about 5-8 points lower than he was when he actually launched. Not good obviously, but there's been other candidates, some are serious, some to me seem like vanity projects or just flashes in the pan. So yes DeSantis has lost a few points but it's not because he's done something to piss off a bunch of Republicans. A lot of it seems to be Trump defense since the two other people with the highest percentage are Trump and a Trump surrogate in Ramaswamy (who does way worse in high-quality live caller polls, but that's whatever). But DeSantis has possibly the most money, maybe even more than Trump given what he's spending on and has a record. he's hoping the field is smaller and unites behind him before Iowa. He is the only feasible alternative, and is planning to use that fact.
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Norway28443 Posts
Introvert do you have any impression how, if in any way, Trump's legal troubles might influence republican voters? It seems like for the actual Trumpists it if anything makes them more dedicated to voting for him, however, for the 'we can't really stand Trump, we were happy to get the SC win but January 6th was a travesty' republicans, do you have the impression it moves the needle in any way?
In a way I guess I'm also asking 'are you gonna vote for Trump in the presidential election if he becomes your candidate' because I'm thinking (/hoping) you're part of that group?  You already got the SC win anyway.
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On August 27 2023 03:47 Liquid`Drone wrote:Introvert do you have any impression how, if in any way, Trump's legal troubles might influence republican voters? It seems like for the actual Trumpists it if anything makes them more dedicated to voting for him, however, for the 'we can't really stand Trump, we were happy to get the SC win but January 6th was a travesty' republicans, do you have the impression it moves the needle in any way? In a way I guess I'm also asking 'are you gonna vote for Trump in the presidential election if he becomes your candidate' because I'm thinking (/hoping) you're part of that group? You already got the SC win anyway.
I read somewhere that if Trump is actually convicted, polls show he will lose a good bunch of Republican voters. As long as he is not, he will surf the wave of benefit of doubt. Of course Trump will have some wonderful spin prepare to deflect a conviction too...
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On August 27 2023 03:47 Liquid`Drone wrote:Introvert do you have any impression how, if in any way, Trump's legal troubles might influence republican voters? It seems like for the actual Trumpists it if anything makes them more dedicated to voting for him, however, for the 'we can't really stand Trump, we were happy to get the SC win but January 6th was a travesty' republicans, do you have the impression it moves the needle in any way? In a way I guess I'm also asking 'are you gonna vote for Trump in the presidential election if he becomes your candidate' because I'm thinking (/hoping) you're part of that group? You already got the SC win anyway.
I think there are so many indictments, and are at base political (even the more serious ones) that I think it's a lot to ask for voters to try and understand everything happening in each case. Bragg's absurdly partisan one being the kickoff I think tainted the rest. Maybe GOP voters will become exhausted, but I think the better way to beat him in the primary is argue that Trump has the worst chance to win the GE, and so to beat Biden we need someone else. I think that's going to be a stronger argument than the seriousness of the legal issues per se. If it Trump in the general I think he'd get most republicans anyways, Biden really sucks and esp if his marked deterioration continues most GOP voters will vote for Trump. The independents is where Trump will get slaughtered, and he'll drive Dem turnout skyhigh. But that's all just my opinion.
The SC is always in flux, and the moment a left-leaning majority comes into power all their talk about precedent will be abandoned. So saying "you already won" is not compelling. Living in Cali I don't really have any desire or need to vote for him but I also haven't really thought about it; one step at at time. If I lived in a swing state I'd have to consider it more carefully.
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The Republican primary has been in this bizarre impossibility generator state for a while now, it’s really hard to imagine the present arrangement being stable but it’s maybe even harder to imagine what changes it.
I mean Trump is… pretty obviously guilty on a lot of the charges? I can understand skepticism about the Bragg charges – I don’t think it’s remotely implausible a regular citizen would get charged and convicted for that kind of thing, but it’s some creative legal footwork that seems untoward when it’s being presented by a DA in a blue state that’s probably trying to make a name for himself more than anything. We can say “the president isn’t above the law” but come on, this is not necessarily the best mechanism for achieving accountability among presidential candidates, is it?
But you move on to the classified documents, and the fake electors and such, and come on, we’re bordering on “I’ve got this thing and it’s fucking golden” territory. It’s completely transparent that the only reason these offenses *wouldn’t* be charged is if the guy who did it had *extremely* good connections and/or bribes. In theory you can make a case for maintaining a layer of insulation between politicians and the justice system (in other words “maybe presidential candidates kinda should be above the law”) but if you’re then gonna turn around and say “that’s why you should vote for the ‘lock her up’ guy” get the fuck outta here, man, this is transparently bad faith.
But then you look at the primary field. I think Intro is pure copium on the DeSantis situation. IIRC last time the thread checked in on DeSantis we were talking about that weirdly homoerotic ad they tweeted, and Intro pointed out the ad was (as far as we knew) just a fan-made thing the campaign retweeted; did we ever circle back to note we’ve since learned that was a straight-up lie? The campaign made it trying to get a “can’t stump the Trump” thing going, and then pretended they hadn’t, especially when it played so badly. Of course those staffers probably don’t work on the campaign any more anyway, because there’s been more than one big “reset” on campaign staff over there; it’s a real Theseus’ Ship situation, except they haven’t replaced the candidate. I mean, cool, he won Florida governor by a lot in the midterm election, but we’ve got a lot of information since then about how he plays with the national electorate and it’s not pretty.
Then we’ve got, what? Mike Pence is supposed to be dead, according to Trump supporter canon. The standout name from the debate is some 9/11 truther that got rich pump-and-dumping some failed pharma company. Nobody, nobody likes Chris Christie, possibly including Chris Christie. You start getting down to, what, Nikki Haley or something? before you get to somebody that doesn’t have extremely obvious reasons they’re not remotely plausible.
Maybe this is too optimistic, but it feels to me like we’re watching a party that decided to completely break with observable political reality nearly a decade ago, and now the completely predictable political consequences of that are playing out.
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On August 27 2023 08:20 ChristianS wrote:
The Republican primary has been in this bizarre impossibility generator state for a while now, it’s really hard to imagine the present arrangement being stable but it’s maybe even harder to imagine what changes it.
I mean Trump is… pretty obviously guilty on a lot of the charges? I can understand skepticism about the Bragg charges – I don’t think it’s remotely implausible a regular citizen would get charged and convicted for that kind of thing, but it’s some creative legal footwork that seems untoward when it’s being presented by a DA in a blue state that’s probably trying to make a name for himself more than anything. We can say “the president isn’t above the law” but come on, this is not necessarily the best mechanism for achieving accountability among presidential candidates, is it?
But you move on to the classified documents, and the fake electors and such, and come on, we’re bordering on “I’ve got this thing and it’s fucking golden” territory. It’s completely transparent that the only reason these offenses *wouldn’t* be charged is if the guy who did it had *extremely* good connections and/or bribes. In theory you can make a case for maintaining a layer of insulation between politicians and the justice system (in other words “maybe presidential candidates kinda should be above the law”) but if you’re then gonna turn around and say “that’s why you should vote for the ‘lock her up’ guy” get the fuck outta here, man, this is transparently bad faith.
But then you look at the primary field. I think Intro is pure copium on the DeSantis situation. IIRC last time the thread checked in on DeSantis we were talking about that weirdly homoerotic ad they tweeted, and Intro pointed out the ad was (as far as we knew) just a fan-made thing the campaign retweeted; did we ever circle back to note we’ve since learned that was a straight-up lie? The campaign made it trying to get a “can’t stump the Trump” thing going, and then pretended they hadn’t, especially when it played so badly. Of course those staffers probably don’t work on the campaign any more anyway, because there’s been more than one big “reset” on campaign staff over there; it’s a real Theseus’ Ship situation, except they haven’t replaced the candidate. I mean, cool, he won Florida governor by a lot in the midterm election, but we’ve got a lot of information since then about how he plays with the national electorate and it’s not pretty.
Then we’ve got, what? Mike Pence is supposed to be dead, according to Trump supporter canon. The standout name from the debate is some 9/11 truther that got rich pump-and-dumping some failed pharma company. Nobody, nobody likes Chris Christie, possibly including Chris Christie. You start getting down to, what, Nikki Haley or something? before you get to somebody that doesn’t have extremely obvious reasons they’re not remotely plausible.
Maybe this is too optimistic, but it feels to me like we’re watching a party that decided to completely break with observable political reality nearly a decade ago, and now the completely predictable political consequences of that are playing out.
Hardly "copium" I've never maintained DeSantis was likely to win and have repeatedly said I don't know if his strategy will work. But I do know from watching other people try to take on Trump (not just in a primary but within the party generally) that the other ways that have been tried don't work. Kemp ran, so far as I could tell, by ignoring Trump for the most part but obviously you can't do that when running against him directly. 2016 showed us that. It just seems to me that a lot of the people here really don't understand Republican politics and get everything they from their own side and filter that through their own predilections. Which is fine and understandable if you aren't a member of the GOP, but I'm pushing back on the idea that the GOP voters aren't flocking to him because they somehow decided they don't like him. That simply isn't supported by what we see.
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