EPTAny thoughts on my nk strat?
[M][N] Medic Mafia - Page 88
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
Any thoughts on my nk strat? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
Also I don't think slam has much chance to be mafia this game. Nh. Well I see a possibility where all three of us die but we get a scum viva in the process. I think that it won't narrow your scumspects between ff/noob though. So then I just question why you wouldn't simply lynch viva. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On March 12 2018 08:43 Vivax wrote: You don't know if I was sitting on Moosy though. I could have been doccing anyone while claiming to have been on moosy and given the blame to whoever else was claiming to heal him with me. I don't know where your town bias towards me is coming from here. This is technically correct if you ignore no one was claiming to heal him with you. But I don't think that I fully understand the point that you're trying to make. Are you questioning why I think you could be town? Because I don't think I'm biased in favor of you at all. I just don't like the idea of auto lynches on someone who isn't confirmed anything, where if you're town scum can just hide in the silence. So what did you mean with this post? | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:26 Holyflare wrote: What situation does everyone die? Viva scum. df/ff kill viva viva (or scummate) moves off df to double-stack on me mafia shoots df because he's not protected You get a scum viva. And two confirmed town dead. Which isn't necessarily awful but since the chances of getting info out of the strat are low (barring stupid mafia play) if it's not viva, why not just lynch him then? | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
Not that you're wrong about things, and not that I'm scumreading you for it or anything (I'm definitely not), I just think the timing was bad. This happened: On March 12 2018 08:26 rsoultin wrote: I agree but frankly I'm not giving Vivax anything more to help him wiggle out. If he's town it's on him to figure it out himself. And then you end up helping him, instead of leaving it on him to figure it out himself. My gut instinct was that following the Koshi plan of continuing to lynch into the VTs would still be the best plan for today, and that it's what we should end up doing. BUT, I dumped my vote on Vivax anyway, to pile on, add to his panic, make him feel like he can only escape the noose by explaining how he isn't caught here, and see if he can come up with good answers, instead of bad answers (or maybe is content to just give up and twist in the wind). I don't think alleviating the pressure on him was the best move, when there was still SO much time in the Phase. The pile of votes on Vivax didn't mean he was being "auto'd" with nothing else happening today. On March 12 2018 10:17 rsoultin wrote: Viva could be playing dumb or reckless scum but that's strange for me. How strange is it? I think someone had said much earlier in the game that Vivax is just not a good scum player. I think that was even part of the reason why he was supposed to be a good afk lynch, right? That if scum, he might just bail on the game, because he's not very good at playing as scum anyway? And I'm not sure that his self-defense today was going too well for him. You directly asked him who he healed last night, and he didn't answer. His answers to other questions continued to imply that Moosy was his target, but he didn't ever come right out and confirm it, leaving himself the option to later say "whoa, I never promised you guys for sure that I targeted Moosy" if things play out so that it's better for him to claim that he targeted someone else. And now it won't mean as much for him to say it directly, if he's pretty sure he's making it through this Phase alive anyway. It's much like the way he handled the Night phase, saying: On March 12 2018 06:03 Vivax wrote: I think the other medic claims should take a look at moosy or sell me another target that isn't HF since if we aren't doing Moosy tonight I'm going to flip a coin between two targets at my discretion. After that point, he keeps telling us that his action is still on Moosy, but never guarantees that he's not going to move it with that coin flip. You also get other weird posts, like this: On March 12 2018 08:37 Vivax wrote: It's obviously Moosy cause FF obviously is mafia. Cause it's bullshit that FF pretends to not have been around during EoD when he was around during EoD 1. And with FFs assumption that I was healing moosy and Koshi was dead man walking, he chose to just kill Koshi when he could have killed Moosy on top of him, but they are teammates. What kind of tunnel does a town player have to be in, to decide that a player can't be absent for EoD 2 just because they were here for EoD1? That just doesn't make any sense, for a rationally-thinking Town player. He's either being irrational or he has a reason for saying it that doesn't match the Town's win condition. He also can't seem to decide what Moosy's survival means. During Night, he seems to think that if Moosy lives it'll mean Moosy and I are scum. During Day, he seems to think that Moosy surviving means Moosy and FF are scum. Except for when he thinks that maybe Moosy is Town...and the scum didn't believe that Vivax was really going to turn in a heal on Moosy...so they attacked him? On March 12 2018 08:11 Vivax wrote: For all we know they can have shot moosy as well. So the missing death from last night isn't because DF saved rsoul, it's because Vivax saved Moosy. Vivax is the real hero medic! Ummm....yeah, doesn't seem...real...likely. We might have seen all kinds of more weirdness from Vivax like this, if we'd held his feet to the flames a little longer. TL;DR - Vivax's defense to this point hasn't been very good, and that's without even needing the wall-of-text cases against him from Moosy and DF. Additionally, if HF should end up being the VT scum, I'll be able to show 1,001 reasons why it makes Vivax the teammate. Koshi was probably picking up on a lot of the same things, which is why he told us the team was HF/Vivax on his way out. | ||
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n00bKing
United States1202 Posts
If we lynch into the VT pool and we're wrong, having the extra town medic alive near the end (even if we aren't sure who it is) still gives us extra options in the last night phase, that we won't have if we've lynched into the medics and been wrong. The vig shot remains an option longer, and there are more scenarios where hero saves are something for the mafia to worry about. If we lynch wrong into the medics, we're hamstrung. No options, no sneaky plays for mafia to try and sniff out. So, ##Unvote On March 12 2018 19:27 Holyflare wrote: I've somehow poed myself as mafia I'm good with that conclusion. The circumstantial evidence against Vivax only makes you more likely to be scum, and not less. ##Vote: Holyflare | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:38 rsoultin wrote: Viva scum. df/ff kill viva viva (or scummate) moves off df to double-stack on me mafia shoots df because he's not protected You get a scum viva. And two confirmed town dead. Which isn't necessarily awful but since the chances of getting info out of the strat are low (barring stupid mafia play) if it's not viva, why not just lynch him then? Eh tis true but the alternative is everyone stacking on one vt pool player and if it's town we lose two people anyway and have 0 confirmed medics still. This way we can confirm in the medic pool. If we hit vivax and he's actually medic then the medics can heal each other next night too. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
We narrow down the vt pool that way and if a medic wants to shenanigan they confirm themselves mafia. This enables us to narrow down vt pool and simultaneously control the mafia nk while trying to preserve our medics. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:45 n00bKing wrote: Anyway, I ran the numbers again, and yes, the mass claim still directs us to lynching in the VT pool. If we lynch into the VT pool and we're wrong, having the extra town medic alive near the end (even if we aren't sure who it is) still gives us extra options in the last night phase, that we won't have if we've lynched into the medics and been wrong. The vig shot remains an option longer, and there are more scenarios where hero saves are something for the mafia to worry about. If we lynch wrong into the medics, we're hamstrung. No options, no sneaky plays for mafia to try and sniff out. So, ##Unvote I'm good with that conclusion. The circumstantial evidence against Vivax only makes you more likely to be scum, and not less. ##Vote: Holyflare Get over yourself mate. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:46 Holyflare wrote: Eh tis true but the alternative is everyone stacking on one vt pool player and if it's town we lose two people anyway and have 0 confirmed medics still. This way we can confirm in the medic pool. If we hit vivax and he's actually medic then the medics can heal each other next night too. Again this only works with viva being scum, so -shrugs- That's a long post to call me bad, noob, lol >< | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:49 Holyflare wrote: Alternatively we do df/ff on a vt player like moosy, vivax on rsoul, nk on df. We narrow down the vt pool that way and if a medic wants to shenanigan they confirm themselves mafia. This enables us to narrow down vt pool and simultaneously control the mafia nk while trying to preserve our medics. I'd have to think about it but honestly I'd rather discuss who we're lynching. I don't want to lynch slam. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:56 rsoultin wrote: Again this only works with viva being scum, so -shrugs- That's a long post to call me bad, noob, lol >< Why does that only work if vivax is mafia? | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:58 rsoultin wrote: I'd have to think about it but honestly I'd rather discuss who we're lynching. I don't want to lynch slam. Well I'm VT so if you have any qualms just get it out of the way. No way I'd actively try and find the best nk strategy to gimp my team instead of pushing a mislynch right now. | ||
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
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Holyflare
United Kingdom30774 Posts
On March 12 2018 20:01 Holyflare wrote: If we lynch moosy or slam today and then do the plan on the other at night then it's basically free mafia. If we hit on the one today then we get a pool of confirmed vt. If we miss we get almost guaranteed mafia at night. The beautiful thing is if we hit the vt today and we do the medics on vt and confirmed town then we force a medic to kill their team mate OR reveal themselves and their team mate. | ||
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rsoultin
Netherlands15308 Posts
On March 12 2018 19:59 Holyflare wrote: Well I'm VT so if you have any qualms just get it out of the way. No way I'd actively try and find the best nk strategy to gimp my team instead of pushing a mislynch right now. If we're lynching into VTs I think I'd prefer moosy, gun to my head. I'd lynch you over slam though, just to be clear. I don't trust myself to be right on you. Slam is just so completely directionless that I have trouble seeing him as scum here. Just look at how he posted this Day phase. | ||
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