Reckoning
There can be no doubt; this is the most brutal, unforgiving group in the Round of 16. There is not a single player in this group who has not, in some way or another, carved a place for himself amongst the best, and thus by extension there is no player who can be definitively dismissed or favoured to advance. Anyone who seizes this group may well be the favourite to win the tournament, if he has not already established himself as such.
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
While the name of
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
Seldom has there been any player in SC2's history who has matched the degree of dominance
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
There is little doubt that
![Terran (T)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Ticon_small.png)
Predictions
All things being equal, assuming Cure does not deploy some miraculous build order that Zest does not comprehend, Zest should crush Cure. soO vs Solar, however, is a much more uncertain affair, and either can advance; Solar, however, has had vastly more experience in LotV ZvZ than soO has, and is theoretically favoured here. In the Winners' Match, Zest should be able to defeat Solar; the latter's cheesy gimmicks were fully exposed by Stats as a farce in the SSL, and Zest can easily refer to the macro games Stats won to have a clear guide as to where Solar is weak. What transpires in the Losers' Match is anyone's guess, but we believe the Deciders' Match should be between soO and Solar (again), in which, again, the outcome is uncertain. Place your liquibets well.
Solar > soO
Cure < Zest
Zest > Solar
soO > Cure
soO > Solar
![Zerg (Z)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Zicon_small.png)
![Protoss (P)](https://tl.net/tlpd/images/Picon_small.png)
Writers' Draft
Round of 32 Report Card
Sorry that this section is slightly out of place; I wrote it a couple weeks ago and forgot to attach it to yesterday's preview. Expect the next Writers' Draft report alongside Wednesday's GSL Group C.
With the Round of 16 Group Selections complete, it’s time for a bumper edition of our weekly Writers' Draft Report. First up is a recap of the final week of the Round of 32, and then I take a look at how the groups and playoffs look to be stacking up. For an overview of the initial drafting process, click here. Here’s a quick reminder of the teams:
+ Show Spoiler +
Destructicon: Zest, Rogue, Dark, Curious, Dream, Bbyong, Trap, Creator
Soularion: TY, Soulkey, MyuNgSiK, Dear, Forte, Super, SpeeD, Seed
TheOneAboveU: herO, Classic, aLive, DongRaeGu, DeParture, Bunny, Cure, Journey
hexhaven: soO, Solar, TaeJa, Leenock, Stork, Losira, Symbol, HerO
Destructicon - 15 points - B-
Dark +15
Bbyong +0
Dark continued his spectacular early season form with his easy 4-0 here, while it’s probably a bit harsh to judge Destructicon too harshly for Bbyong’s 0 points. Note that I made the decision not to punish him with the 5 point penalty after Bbyong's forfeit, partly because Bbyong technically didn't actually lose any games.
Soularion - 21 points - A
Dear +15
A second consecutive A for Soularion? Surely not. But there’s not too much else to say if your sole player of the week picks up the full maximum available.
TheOneAboveU - 2 points - D
aLive +1
DongRaeGu +1
This one was pretty hard for me. Both aLive and DongRaeGu looked excellent in parts in their respective groups, but lost out in their decisive final sets. aLive certainly looked far better than Losira for vast periods of the night, while DRG pushed arguably the best ZvZer in SC2 history right to the breaking point. Desperately unlucky, then, to be getting 2 points here.
hexhaven - 10 points - B
Losira +5
soO +5
HerO +0
Just as TheOneAboveU was edged out for his two 1 pointers this week, hexhaven’s snuck in to nick the spoils. Losira and soO will be relieved to be progressing to the next round, while despite glimpses of great play from HerO, the ex-Liquid protoss was comfortably 4th best in the group. All in all, a pretty good week.
Round of 16 - A Look Ahead
Note: Any opinions offered in the next section should be taken as my initial thoughts on group selection night, and separate from our regular TL previews.
First, a breakdown of the groups showing the relevant writers, followed by a writer-by-writer breakdown:
+ Show Spoiler +
Group A
- herO (TheOneAboveU)
- SpeeD (Soularion)
- Trap (Destructicon)
- TaeJa (hexhaven)
Group B
- Solar (hexhaven)
- soO (hexhaven)
- Zest (Destructicon)
- Cure (TheOneAboveU)
Group C
- Curious (Destructicon)
- Losira (hexhaven)
- Dream (Destructicon)
- Dark (Destructicon)
Group D
- Dear (Soularion)
- Bunny (TheOneAboveU)
- MyuNgSiK (Soularion)
- TY (Soularion)
Destructicon
First things first; Destructicon has five players remaining (compared to four each for Soularion and hexhaven, and three for TheOneAboveU). However, he’s also got three players playing in Group C, meaning that he’ll definitely lose one—somewhat negating his advantage. However, all of Curious, Dream and Dark look superior to Losira so far this season, and with the SKT pair certainly looking to double up on the night, things aren’t looking that bad for him in Group C.
Trap is actually in one of the better groups possible for him. His disruptor PvP looked good against Super (although how much of that came down to the Afreeca player’s incompetence there is debatable), while SpeeD and TaeJa are probably two of the most beatable players left in the competition. That’s not to say he’s favoured at all (I still think he’ll come in 4th probably), but it’s not as hopeless as if he was in, say, Group B.
However, if there’s anyone favoured to be making it out of the group of death, it should be Zest. I’d love to see Solar’s unbeaten ZvP against Zest’s current form in the matchup in the winners’ match, but Solar might not even make it that far as he’s up against soO first. When you’ve got four players of quality, it’s hard to rule out anyone definitively, but until he proves otherwise Zest is my pick for 1st in the group.
Soularion
Much like Destructicon, Soularion has three players in a group; unlike Destructicon, he doesn’t have the buffer of a five man lineup remaining. Everything points to a TY / Dear 1-2 finish, but as we saw all last year, it’s dangerous to count out MyuNgSiK’s zaniness. Bunny has a distant shot at an upset, but if I were Soularion I don’t think I’d be too worried here, and he should definitely have 2/3 advancing.
On the other hand, SpeeD has a distinct shot at furthering his run in Group A. We’ve seen him beat good protosses before, but his weakness seems to be in TvT. He actually looked OK in the only offline series he’s played (albeit against a poor Reality in Code A), but he’s been losing all over the place in online events. We’ve seen nothing of TaeJa’a TvT since his win over Journey in Code S over a month ago, but given his success in the matchup over the years, I think I’d still favour him to come out on top. Still, SpeeD certainly has a much better shot at making the playoffs than anyone would have given him prior to Code A.
TheOneAboveU
This is starting to look pretty ugly for TheOneAboveU. herO is still flying the flag for him, but Cure and Bunny look like mincemeat in their respective groups. Sure, they looked pretty good in their initial groups, but then again everyone in a GSL Ro.16 is pretty good, and they both look inferior to the players around them. If herO fails, it’s pretty much all over. Also, it should be noted that if GSL follows the same format as prior years, the top 2 from Group A will play the top 2 from Group B in the Round of 8, so should herO qualify, he’s likely to get one of Solar / soO / Zest, or Cure for a TOAU teamkill. Any way you spin that, it isn’t looking good.
hexhaven
After a pretty awful start to the Round of 32, hexhaven’s chances suddenly started to look a lot brighter. Then, the groups came out. I’ve covered already why I think TaeJa got a very good shot at going through, but having both Solar and soO in the group of death is awkward. soO looked pretty weak against Dear in their earlier group, and barring some incredible improvement I can’t see him beating Zest, so I think hexhaven has to settle for 1/2 here. Finally, Losira barely scraped through his Ro.32 group, and I can’t see him repeating the miracle here.
Overall thoughts
Destructicon has by far the best Ro.16 setup, while TheOneAboveU probably has the worst. Interestingly though, Destructicon has 3 players in Group C, while Soularion has 3 in Group D; meaning that we'll likely get a double bill showdown between the two in the Round of 8. If one of the two comes out on top decisively there, that could well be the week that decides the overall winner of the Draft. For now though, with plenty of big points left to play for in the playoffs and plenty of upsets already so far, everything remains fairly open.
Current standings
Soularion - 48 points (4 to play this round)
Destructicon - 40 points (5)
TheOneAboveU - 24 points (3)
hexhaven - 21 points (4)