ASUS ROG Summer 2015: Up For Grabs
While Korea continues to dominate the Premier tournament circuit, more and more Major tournaments are popping up for foreigners to earn some cash. They might not have as many WCS points or as much prestige, but it's a good way to slowly accumulate reward for their hard work and practice. However, whenever high tier Koreans have attended these major events, they have always returned home with the spoils.
Said spoils.
ASUS ROG represents the best chance for a foreigner to win an event over a very good Korean in a long, long time. While some of the players in Helsinki are in the WCS Finals reckoning, none of them have won a premier or major tournament this year. The highest ranked player, FanTaSy, earned his points through mutliple qualified tournaments and decent runs. His best result—in fact, the best for this lot—was second place at Copenhagen Games behind PartinG. Every single one of the Korean players in attendance is beatable, and don't be surprised to see a bracket stage with more than 5 different flags.
Contender Countdown
Continental Contenders
We've already covered most of these players this week in WCS EU, and we're sure you don't want to hear us say the same things about these players again. One of these players could win the tournament and be this year's foreign hero. Based on recent results, here's a quick rundown of the top 10 foreign players participating in ASUS ROG.
Just outside: NaNiwa, Serral, elfi
10: Welmu
WCS S2 Result: Challenger
WCS S3 CL Result: Elazer 3 - 0 Welmu
Tournament in a Nutshell: Can Welmu find his second gear?
9: Happy
WCS S2 Result: Challenger
WCS S3 CL Result: MaNa 3 - 2 Happy
Tournament in a Nutshell: Bouncing back from disappointment
8: Zanster
WCS S2 Result: Challenger
WCS S3 CL Result: FireCake 0 - 3 Zanster
Tournament in a Nutshell: Someone's due for a breakout tournament
7: Ret
WCS S2 Result: Ro16
WCS S3 CL Result: Ret 1 - 3 HeRoMarinE
Tournament in a Nutshell: Bouncing back from disappointment
6: uThermal
WCS S2 Result: Challenger
WCS S3 CL Result: elfi 0 - 3 uThermal
Tournament in a Nutshell: Time to prove your potential
5: MarineLorD
WCS S2 Result: Ro8
WCS S3 CL Result: MarineLorD 3 - 0 DmC
Tournament in a Nutshell: Could this be MarineLorD's big tournament?
4: TLO
WCS S2 Result: Ro8
WCS S3 CL Result: TLO 3 - 1 Bly
Tournament in a Nutshell: What happens if we get TLO vs TRUE??
3: Snute
WCS S2 Result: Ro32
WCS S3 CL Result: Snute 3 - 0 Serral
Tournament in a Nutshell: 15 delicious zergs in attendance
2: Bunny
WCS S2 Result: Ro4
WCS S3 CL Result: Bunny 1 - 3 Starbuck
Tournament in a Nutshell: Gotta make up those points somehow
1: Lilbow
WCS S2 Result: 2nd
WCS S3 CL Result: Lilbow 3 - 0 SortOf
Tournament in a Nutshell: 15 delicious zergs in attendance
Korean Contenders
10: Gamja
With no WCS points to his name, Gamja is basically here to fill out the top 10. Advancing even just 1 group stage would be a success for him, though with little information on him, it's difficult to tell whether that's even possible.
9: Apocalypse
Back in 2013, Apocalypse actually looked like one of the better terrans in WCS AM. However, that was 2 years ago, and the results have been very lean since. This is actually his first offline tournament all year, and he barely scraped through the qualifiers. His one impressive win came against fellow attendee KeeN, though that probably isn't enough to suggest he's better than the Proleague player.
8: KeeN
It's a clear indication of KeeN's style how his best periods often coincide with the release of a new game. Even though he doesn't have the best mechanics or the best execution, KeeN is a smart player than can tailor builds for specific players. That's how he rose to fame in GSTL as a sniper, and it used to be great watching him attempt ghost EMP drops in TvP. He's in another one of his valleys right now (one Code A exit in the past year and a half), but we all know there's still a clever player in there somewhere.
7: BBoongBBoong
To be honest, I don't know why I put B4 above KeeN. They are essentially on the same sinking (Prime) boat. If either of them can claim an unlikely title at ASUS ROG it would go a long way towards improving morale at the teamhouse and reminding people that Prime can still make champions. They are playing for more than just themselves, and it's not like they couldn't do without that added pressure.
6: StarDust
StarDust would have topped this list in 2014, but times have changed. Even though he reached the Ro8 in WCS S2, he was thoroughly dismantled by Bunny in TvP. His once crisp execution and his atomic clock for timings appear to have both frozen over the winter period at the start of the year, and they still haven't thawed. StarDust's BlizzCon dreams died in his defeat to Neeb last week, and all indications point to another setback in Finland.
5: Patience
Patience is weird. Sometimes, he shows why he is perpetually stuck in the hells of Korean qualifiers. Then, out of nowhere, he goes on a barnstorming run in a foreign event. I guess that's just the type of guy he is, dependent on momentum and whether he got up on the right side of the bed. At his best, Patience can beat players like INnoVation. At his worst, he can lose to players we've never heard of. I guess that puts him somewhere in the middle.
4: TRUE
It is a crime that we haven't seen much TRUE in 2015. In a game of seconds and degrees, playstyles often get figured out and converge (but never completely) towards the mean. That's why TRUE has a legion of fans: he plays his own way, because it sorta works for him. Some have suggested that he's the true son of NesTea because of the number of banelings he uses in ZvT, but he's a different being altogether especially since he has never won a tournament. It could have been TRUE instead of Curious that experienced elation in Valencia, but a victory in Helsinki wouldn't be half bad.
3: HyuN
HyuN is in a weird place right now. Yes, he has silenced his doubters by putting up good results on his return to Korea. He even reached the Semi finals of two DreamHacks. Yet that still represents a downward trajectory for HyuN, and he's currently a long shot for BlizzCon despite his good points tally. SSL is his last chance to raid a significant number of points, but he hasn't shown a level of play that suggests he can be counted on to do more than get a few consolation points. A win here would help out a lot, but as his defeat at the hands of GuMiho in Code A showed, the roach king isn't at the peak of his powers. For this tournament however, that might just be enough.
2: Losira
Losira at #2 is more than a little bit hopeful, but a comeback year for the Spider Zerg would not be complete without at least a major title. After falling off the face of the earth due to Incredible Miracle's death, his tenure with MVP under the necromancy of Choya has pushed him back up the zerg hierarchy. He isn't quite at the level of Life, ByuL or soO, but he's hovering near the Solar (in individual leagues)/Rogue/HyuN level. Even though he's had a difficult time making it back into Korean individual tournaments, he's still MVP's best player. He also performed well in IEM Shenzhen recently, where he dispatched of TY and SuperNova before falling to Classic.
1: FanTaSy
With the most WCS points and the most success this year, FanTaSy is, curiously, the favorite to win the tournament. His journey from SKT T1 bench warmer to his revival under dPix has been a joy to behold. His micro and harassment are just as sharp as ever, but he has cleaned up many of the macro mistakes that had plagued him in the past. Yes, he does still float an obscene amount of minerals at times, but he has found a way to balance his desire to control and his necessity to build. He is one of the few players to qualify for both KeSPA Cups, and he has improved his stock in GSL and SSL in 2015. With his toes firmly on the WCS Cut off line, FanTaSy needs to make this winnable tournament count.
The WCS Scramble
It's that time of year when every single point matters in the race towards BlizzCon. With foreign events, both major and premier, ramping up in frequency, players must choose which tournaments to attend and which to skip. The available points, the schedule, the ability to qualify, and the potential for victory all weigh heavily when players decide where to go. In truth, only a few players at ASUS ROG even have a remote shot at qualifying.
Hypothetical Point Cutoff: ~3300
#14 - FanTaSy - 2375
Points Needed: 925
WCS Tournament Status: Code S Ro32
WCS Predictor Odds: 73.82%
Outlook: Without a single tournament victory to his name, FanTaSy is on the cusp of claiming his BlizzCon ticket. He's in Code S again this season and there's a good chance he qualifies yet again for KeSPA Cup Season 3. He could be this year's jjakji: that guy who didn't win anything but amassed enough points anyway.
#18 - Bunny - 1950
Points Needed: 1350
WCS Tournament Status: None
WCS Predictor Odds: 15.94%
Outlook: Bunny is just outside the Top 16, but he's now out of WCS with a lot of points still necessary. He now needs to win more than 1 foreign LAN, because it's the only way we could see a foreigner at BlizzCon for the first time since NaNiwa in 2013. His chances took a big hit because of his loss to Starbuck, and there's a good chance Lilbow or Snute overtake him.
#21 - HyuN - 1825
Points Needed: 1475
WCS Tournament Status: SSL Ro16
WCS Predictor Odds: 18.32%
Outlook: Even though this hasn't been a great year for HyuN, he's still fairly close to the magic number. Unfortunately, he no longer plays in WCS where the points were almost always assured for him. He's in the SSL Ro16, and it's going to take a lot of upsets for HyuN to reach the threshold.
#26 - Lilbow - 1650
Points Needed: 1650
WCS Tournament Status: WCS Premier
WCS Predictor Odds: 15.69%
Outlook: If Lilbow can repeat his Season 2 heroics—or do even better, in fact—he'd be crowned the uncontested foreign hope and champion. It could also be enough to earn him a shot at the big prize, though he'll likely need a Ro4 at ASUS ROG coupled with another tournament placing to secure his position.
#27 - TRUE - 1550
Points Needed: 1750
WCS Tournament Status: None
WCS Predictor Odds: 0.71%
Outlook: With most of his points coming from foreign events, TRUE needs to start winning because there aren't many LANs left before the Grand Finals. With no Code S or SSL, he actually has an infinitesimally small chance of making it.
#28 - Snute - 1475
Points Needed: 1825
WCS Tournament Status: WCS Premier
WCS Predictor Odds: 9.36%
Outlook: Snute still has a realistic chance of qualifying, but it's likely down to our belief in him. His double victory over Classic and Rain shows he has what it takes to conquer the world. He just has to finally do it.
#34 - TLO - 1300
Points Needed: 2000
WCS Tournament Status: WCS Premier
WCS Predictor Odds: 0.67%
Outlook: He's consistently reached the Ro8, but that isn't enough to deserve a spot for BlizzCon. Even an improvement to the Ro4 won't be enough, as TLO needs a title and then some to book his ticket to Anaheim.
#37 - Patience - 1125
Points Needed: 2175
WCS Tournament Status: None
WCS Predictor Odds: 0.11%
Outlook: Patience often goes far in foreign tournaments but never wins them. That isn't going to get him to the big event, and he needs to strike gold somewhere if he wants to have a shot.
#43 - MarineLorD - 1000
Points Needed: 2300
WCS Tournament Status: WCS Premier
WCS Predictor Odds: 4.81%
Outlook: MarineLorD is still in it due to his place in WCS. If he can go far in a few tournaments, he could still surprise