by Waxangel

MVP.sC vs 8_Jaedong

Uh oh, do we have another KeSPA upset coming? Taking a look back at the KeSPA > GomTV upsets, we can find a few similarities.

Zerg vs Terran: KeSPA players have been excellent in mid-game ZvT, although their ability to manage the late game has lagged behind. Mid-game is where SC II Zerg tends to be the most "zergy" in the Brood War sense, abusing mobility, springing traps, and backstabbing relentlessly to gain an advantage or just end the game outright. On the other hand, late game revolves around baby-sitting a bunch of excruciatingly slow, floating targets that have the durability of Indian automobiles, whose only redeeming quality is their ability to hurl annoying little bugs a reasonably far distance. Basically, they have to play Brood War PvT, and they're not very good at it.

Code A or below GomTV opponent: Hack and YuGiOh are good players, but you wouldn't say they're Code S quality. That's part of why they lost to Reality and RorO, because at the very worst, the KeSPA players are showing they can fight fairly evenly with Code A opponents. To be honest, Soulkey could have also taken at least one series for KeSPA, whether it was WCS or WCG if he didn't have to play the 'ARE YOU SERIOUS??' line-up of MMA, TaeJa, and Gumiho.

On a side note, we'll pretend RorO vs Leenock never happened.

Psychological advantage: Though a handful of GomTV players seem to welcome the variety of playing a new pool of opponents, and even look forward to an opportunity to put their yet-unprepared colleagues in their place, the majority of GomTV players appear to be scared out of their minds. Playing not to lose is one of the worst things you can do, but that's precisely what happens in many of these KeSPA vs GomTV games if the post-match interviews are to be believed. My favorite quote happens to come from Heart, after he beat ZerO to make it into the WCG South Korea tournament. "Good? Bad? I have no f***ing idea man, I was scared s***less. It's great that I have 3000 hours of muscle memory so I can grind out wins in games where I can't actually think straight" (many liberties taken in translation).

It's ironic, because that's probably the same way Heart has made a lot of his opponents feel during his various tournament runs. He went into the MLG Winter Season as almost a complete no-name, yet came out with a third place finish as he cheesed and all-in'd fearlessly. I suppose it's easy to be fearless when there are absolutely no expectations on you. And it must suck to have the tabled turned on you, as Heart learned with the KeSPA players.

Anyway, all of this suggests we're on the verge of another upset. It's ZvT, sC has been slumping miserably for a while (Genius 'jokingly' tweeted about sC's 2000+ League of Legends rating), and while he's not really a choker, sC probably falls in the middle of the pack for mental fortitude. At the same time, Jaedong hasn't looked quite as good at Zerg as Roro or Soulkey, but that's nothing a few hours of watching Stephano's stream can't fix.

Prediction: Jaedong 2 – 1 sC


MVP.DongRaeGu vs CJ_EffOrt

According to some betting sites, DongRaeGu is over a 1:3 favorite to beat Effort. That's patently absurd, and is one of the lines that has made me contemplate moving to Australia or New Zealand so I can legally bet on Starcraft matches.

Here's some intensely flawed, but oddly compelling logic: Effort is 6 – 0 in Proleague ZvZ, and 3 – 0 against RorO specifically. RorO is 2 – 1 against Leenock (goddammit, I thought we were forgetting that happened), who in turn beat DongRaeGu who was playing the hardest he possibly could in one of the most important matches of his career. Ergo, Effort > DongRaeGu.

Alright, maybe it's too early to say that, but does he have a serious chance at scoring an upset? Hell yeah.

On a more serious note, ZvZ definitely has some of the mirror match-up flukiness to it, but it's nowhere near being as volatile as PvP. It's possible for great players to largely transcend the volatility of the match-up – in particular, it's worth looking at the games of the extremely defense oriented ST_Life. DongRaeGu actually used to be one of those players, and at one point his ZvZ was probably the best in the world. However, he's presently crashing and burning in one of the most epic free falls we've ever seen from a progamer who used to be THE best in the world. At some point he's going to make his recovery, but unfortunately, he may have to hit rock bottom before he can begin the process.

Prediction: Effort 2 – 1 DongRaeGu.


CJ_herO vs SlayerS_YugiOh

It's great that the bracket worked out in a way that the Gom players who lost to KeSPA players before will have a chance to avenge themselves. As mentioned above, the fear of shaming oneself and one's peers must have played a factor in some of the GomTV players' losses, and a repeat match might help us learn exactly how big an influence it was.

The situation has changed a bit since the opening week of WCS. While GomTV players are still favored against KeSPA players, the fact that several players lost – including a champion caliber player in Leenock – makes further losses much more excusable. Also, in the case of YuGiOh, he'll have the experience of playing against a KeSPA player in his pocket. The second time around, he might have stopped seeing them as mystical beings, coming to compete from a parallel universe. Instead, he'll be able to look at them for what they are: good, but not great competitors who could probably tough it out in Code A. And as we all know, YuGiOh is the King of Code A.

Prediction: YuGiOh 2 – 1 Hero


LG-IM_Mvp vs LG-IM_Happy

After seeing last week's games where Mvp beat Polt in marine-tank vs marine-tank with two exploding wrists, and Happy choked ridiculously hard against TAiLS, I'm convinced that Mvp could beat Happy even if his hands became paralyzed mid-match and he had to play with his elbows instead.

Prediction: Mvp 2 – 0 Happy


Bonus Match!

Okay, it's not really a bonus match, but with only three Winners Ro16 games yesterday, one of them was moved to today. Yup, Liquid's HerO got to play with a day of rest, while Seed had to play right off the plane. Why? I have no idea, but I imagine it had something to do with Liquid's management being on the ball and asking for a schedule change way, way beforehand.

Liquid`HerO vs CreatorPrime

In the cruelest match of the evening, HerO gets to play a top tier Protoss player in his worst match-up three days after having his soul crushed by a different one. You couldn't really blame HerO for falling into a catatonic state, with "f*** PvP" being the main thought on his mind. On top of that, a ridiculously jet-lagged Seed managed to defeat a top-tier Terran player in Gumiho yesterday, going directly to the GomTV studio after getting off the airplane, which means that even if HerO wins here, he'll have been outdone by Seed once more (completely tangentially, the way Symbol, Byun, and HerO looked completely crushed after getting beat by Seed makes me think that his long Code S absence was due to him taking a year off to study black magic.)

Creator is looking as strong as ever, coming off a 3 - 0 vs CoCa, 2 - 1 vs DRG, and 3 - 0 vs SeleCT. He might have lost to NaNiwa the last time he played a best of three PvP in the GomTV studio, but that's hardly a blemish considering that NaNiwa is one of the best PvP players in the world (on this point, let there be no controversy). Though Creator hasn't proven that his PvP is as good as his terrifying PvT or PvZ yet, he's accumulated so much momentum going forward, it's hard to pick against him here.

Prediction: Creator 2 – 0 HerO