EPTNewbie Mini Mafia XXI - Page 31
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
iamperfection
United States9634 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
| ||
|
JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
I'm pointing out the reasoning for vig NOT to shoot you based on limited information, Perfection. And asking Calgar if he's so confident in your guilt based off the limited information we had at the time, because he wanted to tell the Vig that they should definitely shoot a person to save us time or whatever. Now granted, you're selling me more and more on your guilt, but I'm entirely unsure of your logic. Although your guilt wouldn't confirm Calgar for me at this point, because frankly, if you were scum, at this point, your best value would be as proof of other scum's innocence. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 19 2012 04:30 Mufaa wrote: I might be missing something, but how does this confirm a townie d2 if a vig shoots? Wouldn't it just confirm that we have a vig who has no shots (unless he claims). If he claims though and we don't have a medic it stands to reason he'd die next night to remove the confirmed townie since they're much more dangerous to scum than the other townies that aren't trustworthy. If the mafia targets him n2 and he lives we gain save a person and break even compared to if he hadn't shot at all at the expense of confirming a medic among the 7/6 remaining town. To me this feels like a very high-risk play for a very low reward unless the Vig is so confident in his read that he's almost positive he can hit scum. Yes, what I meant was that it confirms vigilante to be the confirmed townie. Since he used his shot, there is no reason for him to not claim. And he would be confirmed because no one would fake claim vig. unless scum playing sub-optimally risky. And although there is some chance that vigilante would be targeted next by scum, there are at least two reasons for scums to target think about targeting another player. 1. It is better for scums to NK medic or detective. 2. Because it is highly likely that there is a medic, and even if there isn't, scums would not know that there isn't a medic. So trying to NK the spent vig may lead to a waste of their kill power. I do not understand your second paragraph. Please explain. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 19 2012 04:32 Mufaa wrote: EBWOP: If the mafia targets him n2 and he lives we gain save a person and come out ahead/break even compared to if he hadn't shot at all at the expense of confirming a medic among the 7/6 remaining town. I am trying to understand this. Sorry that I cannot. Are you proposing that vigilante to claim before he shoots? That would mean that he could be roleblocked OR killed. I don't think that would be a good idea. | ||
|
YourHarry
United States1152 Posts
On July 19 2012 04:50 iamperfection wrote: Because your thinking it in too simple of terms. If im mafia i know that obvious is town i wasent wishy washy at when i voted for obvious so according to your own logic my action at that time was more likely town. Take it further. When obvious is killed its natural to look at who caused the votes to happen how did it benfit me going later into the game how is it going to help the mafia win. Sure i could get the mis lynch on day one but im not set up in benfitual way at all on day 2. Ive been saying all along the goal is to win not looking good with logic or survivng lynches the goal is to make the town win. If im mafia my position makes no sense. Imagine a player who was wishy-wash about a player and then voted him, who then flipped town. The player would be very suspicious (LOL, this is actually exactly how I acted on D1, but I have an excuse  ) ..So the other side of the coin is that, scums would act decisive and firm in their opinion - because typically that's how townies act and they want to fit in.Also, you are saying everyone who didn't act wishy washy when they voted Obvious.660 is town? I think that's pretty much everyone except me. | ||
|
Mufaa
219 Posts
On July 19 2012 05:12 YourHarry wrote: I am trying to understand this. Sorry that I cannot. Are you proposing that vigilante to claim before he shoots? That would mean that he could be roleblocked OR killed. I don't think that would be a good idea. Sorry I should have been more clear. What I mean is if a Vig shoots tonight and claims tomorrow it seems like we're in a terrible position unless he hits a scum. If he doesn't shoot tonight and doesn't claim there is a small chance of him getting NK'd of course but it would presumably increase his odds of hitting scum with more posts to analyze and more reads. I'm just a bit apprehensive of a shot tonight missing and knocking us down another townie just to confirm someone. A miss would bring us to 6town 3 scum as this was a strategy I considered to bait out the knowledge of a medic to roleblock/kill them in the next night. Your points about the Medic/Detective though make sense, and I've never been in a game with this situation (or even one with a confirmed townie) so take my words from a theorycrafting perspective not practical. I just want to make sure we weigh our options before we commit to something this major. | ||
|
Mufaa
219 Posts
| ||
|
calgar
United States1277 Posts
@hapa I’ll agree with you that it may be too soon to call a vig hit. I’m with you on the YourHarry case. Whatever they say, it’s process of elimination and if out of 11 players remaining there are 6-7 behaving town-ish and 3-4 behaving mafia-ish then we need to go for those in the 3-4. Fulla doesn’t know what’s going on which is funny to me in some sense. Better case for being a bad-townie I think than YourHarry. But it’s definitely anti-town play. I’d say YourHarry is higher on the list because his anti-town play is more extensive. about iamperfection: The problem is that, as far as I’m concerned, we’re already at the end of the road. He’s either mafia or a bad townie. Watching him post more bad reads, contradictions, and poor logic (which he continues to do) isn’t going to change any of that. He’s already crazy suspicious, what is more dirt on him going to do? It’s still back to the basic problem of whether or not he’s just a bad town. An invest on him is risky because he is a likely candidate for the role change cloak since so much attention is targeted at him. I've got to laugh and shake my head at "ill be back later tonight" that he said. Did he consider the chance of being killed? So sure that he won't be? Probably right, since he's so anti-town. Even if he was town they wouldn't touch him. His haphazard play would be poor for both town and mafia so it's a tough call. @fulla There isn’t much to say about you. I’ll start with your pledge at the beginning of the game “I will be active Very active /in x100” You don’t seem so excited now. You contribute absolutely nothing in the first 24 hours. You seem to have contributed a fair amount in your magic mafia game so don’t know what happened. You make one or two short posts that contribute relatively little content-wise. You said “Where the hell is obvious?” - my response to that is where the hell are YOU? I don’t even have anything to analyze here you’ve been so inactive. @YourHarry You’ve been called out for anti-town play and you haven’t done a single thing in my eyes to change. I can’t come up with a list this long for any other player besides iamperfection. 1. Your “read” on how fulla is “positively town” is very bad logic. Piling on to a vote right before the deadline is far from pro-town. I’m pretty sure you’re the only one getting that feeling because he is crazy suspicious to me. You then backtrack – see #9. 2. You lack any strong reads or dedicated suspicion. See what I’m doing here with this list? 3. I think it’s possible that you bussed iamperfection in your post: “Jingle, iamperfection, tube... Can't be this easy right.” 4. Your analysis of obvious’ summary quote as sounding like “like forced narration to seem pro townie” is a weak justification for piling onto the veteran. In fact, your words sound like what is quoted. 5. My reads are all different than yours so maybe I just suck. Or maybe you’re purposely spreading suspicion on other players I have pegged as town. 6. “And, I want you guys to be convinced that if tube is town, so am I.” WHAT? You just called him out for being suspicious for piling on. Where does this one liner come from? Where is your reasoning, your logic? Why would a town drop random one-liners like that making vague suggestions about innocence. You don’t need to claim innocence, you show it, which you haven’t. 7. Your posts have attempted to spread blame to me (subtly), jingle, iamperfection, tube, and obvious. Which is it, now? 8. You began the game with contentless, spammy, directionless one-liners until you were pressured. Anti-town as I have said before. You even agree with me on this one! 9. Your votes lack conviction and you backtrack. Obvious backtracked also but we agreed on most things and he pressured people to talk. That's why I felt strongly he was town. You happen to share neither category with obvious. 10. Mind telling me what this great excuse that explains your anti-town play is? “(LOL, this is actually exactly how I acted on D1, but I have an excuse )” Your days are numbered playing like this. IGMEOY iamperfection, YourHarry, fulla As for town direction, I propose to pressure the above and decide from there. | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
| ||
|
JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
I'm going to skip perfection, because we all know the deal with him. At this point, I plan to start working up a case against Calgar if I live long enough. If Perfection is scum, the calling for a vigi hit was an attempt to earn calgar town credit, and if Perfection is town, he's an easy sell for a mislynch. Regardless, Calgar's late in the day effort to "Save" obvious once it became clear saving him would be difficult looks like an effort at town cred. It's heavy WIFOM, but it was a mediocre effort, and too little too late. Certainly not enough to make him look clean to me. Furthermore, he jumps votes like it's going out of style, and despite pushing his side bandwagon on perfection late D1, he didn't change his vote until he got Hapa onboard with it. Check the timing in the filter. Despite his seeming desperation to "save" obvious by pushing perfection, Calgar left his vote on YourHarry until AFTER Hapa changed votes. What? Go back to the very beginning of D1, he was pointing to his lack of history to analyze, and hoping to cast doubts on the various methods people can use to spot scum. He was actively spreading the seeds of doubt for any analysis that could be directed his way. On July 16 2012 09:06 calgar wrote: I have to disagree with you here. We saw firsthand how hapa crushed hopeless last game with a thorough meta-analysis. This means it is at least worth something. Having said that, I think it will be less useful this game since those who saw what happened will be more careful to avoid similar mistakes. And some players (like me) have no history to analyze. On July 16 2012 10:07 calgar wrote: Moreover, I think that the ‘newb cover’ strategy has been way overplayed. Kind of like the lurk-and-hope-no-one-notices-you strategy. I would imagine any mafia trying to use such an obvious excuse like that would only be drawing unwanted attention. In other words, a very poor game move so early that intelligent players would not make. This second one casts huge WIFOM type doubts around, he can point to it later as needed. "See guys, I even said back then we should avoid watching this stuff". I plan to go through and work up a complete case once it's daytime, unless I'm dead. This should be enough to at least consider if I do die. Also, Calgar was, at first, one of the people calling me scummy for saying we don't have sufficient info for a vigi kill to feel really safe. When Hapa agreed, I'm suddenly not on Calgar's scumlist in his recent post? Again, "me-too"-ing on Hapa. | ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
| ||
|
Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
![[image loading]](http://2pep.com/funny%20pics/laughing%20humorous%20pictures/super_funny_cute%20images_a2e2b88240a623120f90b234fd771bfb.jpg) So nightime fell and the old people headed to bed. The deaths of the day just a natural part of life in the home. When you're old death becomes part of life and at least these were interesting. So the seniors snuggled into their beds safe in the knowledge that tomorrow the youngters would still be ruining the world with their hippity hop and their iTelephones. Everone that is except EvulRabbitz. Clearly distressed by the events of the day he decided to evacuate the building post haste. The mess with diapers was particularly disturbing and he just had to get from them. Unfortunately his addled braind sent him out the wrong exit and onto the main road. In an ironic twist of fate he was flattened by a semi-trailer carrying a load of adult diapers. EvulRabbitz is now a road pancake. It is Day. You have 48hrs to vote. | ||
|
JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
| ||
|
Fulla
United Kingdom519 Posts
On July 18 2012 18:31 Evulrabbitz wrote: Due to some unforeseen circumstances I cannot be active for a few days so I require a replacement. I apologize for this. Are mafia retarded or was he hit? Or was somebody attacked and healed. | ||
|
Fulla
United Kingdom519 Posts
AND hit him. | ||
|
Fulla
United Kingdom519 Posts
On July 19 2012 07:30 calgar wrote: @fulla There isn’t much to say about you. I’ll start with your pledge at the beginning of the game “I will be active Very active /in x100” You don’t seem so excited now. You contribute absolutely nothing in the first 24 hours. You seem to have contributed a fair amount in your magic mafia game so don’t know what happened. You make one or two short posts that contribute relatively little content-wise. You said “Where the hell is obvious?” - my response to that is where the hell are YOU? I don’t even have anything to analyze here you’ve been so inactive. I'm available usually just before the deadlines each night, for my timezone the deadline is exactly midnight. I'll be more active now, I didn't have much to say. Before it was random guys shouting at each other, with pages of raging about ego's. Atleast now I things to discuss. I'm off tomorrow afternoon expect some posts tomorrow. | ||
|
Hapahauli
United States9305 Posts
Evul was pretty quiet all game, so maybe Mafia was trying to kill a blue? Regardless, I'm happy to be alive, and let's make this day of discussion better than the last. | ||
|
JingleHell
United States11308 Posts
| ||
| ||
