The thing is when I was roleblocked, and your shot going off. We had two townies. That should make the third townie know all three townies. Which would make this game a walk in the park for that person. The only person however who's gotten more excited is Mattchew. In addition I had a townread on him before that so I'm pretty sure he's the townie.

prplhz

Denmark8045 Posts

June 29 2012 11:38 GMT

#1503

On June 29 2012 20:19 marvellosity wrote:
risk, the problem is I get a townie vibe off rastaban

yeah maybe he's scum and I fucked up, but meh. I'm leaning on the opinions of the most recent dead and confirmed townies too (VE, Probulous) so if I'm wrong I can at least blame someone else (jk jk). And prplhz is not roleblocker and that's our best shot of remotely winning.

prplhz, I've done the cold hard analysis:

Show nested quote +

That was not 4 hours spent crying or being emotional, believe you me.

I can't really care about analysis that isn't in this thread. If

On June 29 2012 19:08 marvellosity wrote:
fuck you. seriously, just fuck you.

isn't emotional then I don't know what is. You are still not responding and it's not like I made an overwhelming post. It was one single paragraph explaining why it is not necessary to lynch the roleblocker today and because of that we shouldn't take any chances to achieve that. We lynch most likely scum and then if he isn't roleblocker then we have another shot tomorrow. I don't even get why you think Snarfs is roleblocker but that's again because you are not saying anything in this thread. Anybody can say a random number and then claim they got the answer from that. 4 is actually the standard random number in RFC1149.5.

prplhz

Denmark8045 Posts

June 29 2012 11:53 GMT

#1504

I don't even get why you think Snarfs is scum but I guess it's more likely than not in 3-3-1. I can't focus on finding 3 scum and an SK, you find one scum at a time.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36156 Posts

June 29 2012 11:59 GMT

#1505

you handily missed out the bit where you said "where he spent the entire game screwing up". You don't think I was fuck youing at the roleblocker bit do you?

marvellosity

United Kingdom36156 Posts

June 29 2012 12:14 GMT

#1506

ugh, gonna look at some setup shizzle in the next hour or two.

marvellosity

United Kingdom36156 Posts

June 29 2012 12:41 GMT

#1507

Assuming we lynch scum, overnight it will be 3-2-1.

Town lynches the roleblocker

3-2-1 will likely become 2-1-1. Town cannot possibly win.

Is the mafia's best ploy to kill a townie? Presumably any sane SK (rofl :/) chose one-shot bulletproof for situations just like these (BH chose it last game). So if mafia tries to shoot at SK then likely it ends up 3-1-1, worse for mafia than 2-1-1 (obviously)

Town doesn't lynch the roleblocker

3-2-1 becomes 2-2-1. An even worse situation for town numerically speaking, where the only hope is for town to lynch a mafia and then mafia and SK to shoot each other (extremely unlikely...)

Basically town cannot possibly win unless by some miracle mafia hits the SK tonight. Presuming this happens:

If SK gets roleblocked, it will be 3-2-1 tomorrow and we can potentially win by lynching scum.
If SK does not get roleblocked, it will be 3-1-1 tomorrow, where fate is entirely in town's hands.

In other words, town can only win if mafia does not kill town tomorrow. This being the case, our chances are greatly increased if we manage to hit the roleblocker.

Everyone please comment. Am I making correct assumptions here?

The one of course that it's based on is a 3-1 scum/SK split.

In Emergency it was 3/1 and town had cop, roleblocker, jailer, similar blue powers to here, so it seems reasonable.

rastaban

United States2294 Posts

June 29 2012 14:18 GMT

#1508

On June 29 2012 21:41 marvellosity wrote:
Assuming we lynch scum, overnight it will be 3-2-1.

Town lynches the roleblocker

3-2-1 will likely become 2-1-1. Town cannot possibly win.

Is the mafia's best ploy to kill a townie? Presumably any sane SK (rofl :/) chose one-shot bulletproof for situations just like these (BH chose it last game). So if mafia tries to shoot at SK then likely it ends up 3-1-1, worse for mafia than 2-1-1 (obviously)

Town doesn't lynch the roleblocker

3-2-1 becomes 2-2-1. An even worse situation for town numerically speaking, where the only hope is for town to lynch a mafia and then mafia and SK to shoot each other (extremely unlikely...)

Don't forget we can no lynch. in a 2-1-1 or scenario town's best chance is to go for a no lynch. It doesn't assure a victory but it ends up making the the SK and Mafia play WIFOM with a possibility of town taking the game.

There might be a possibility for a 3-2 tomorrow as well, If the SK chose investigation immune or if bulletproof can be suppressed (In my previous game this was the case but RB didn't block KP then so it might not) and mafia try and eliminate him tonight.

Does Roleblock suppress the SK's one shot bulletproof?

marvellosity

United Kingdom36156 Posts

June 29 2012 14:22 GMT

#1509

I can't believe RB would stop both the shot and one-shot bulletproof.

It's like the veteran's ability which is passive and unblockable.

So a no-lynch at 2-1-1.

That still relies on mafia and SK shooting at each other though...oh i see...

this is a bit like game theory

marvellosity

United Kingdom36156 Posts

June 29 2012 14:23 GMT

#1510

do you agree with me though our chances are increased by killing roleblocker? (2-1-1 instead of 2-2-1)?

rastaban

United States2294 Posts

June 29 2012 14:27 GMT

#1511

Also 3/1 is prettu much a given. I looked over the C9++ link Probulous linked at the beginning of the game, now WBG could have modified things but according to that list and our current revealed roles we got a CCDVTTT
where TTT = 2 Goons + Roleblocker, Serial Killer (Investigation Immune OR 1-Shot Bulletproof) which matches with the general consensus right now.

rastaban

United States2294 Posts

June 29 2012 14:41 GMT

#1512

On June 29 2012 23:23 marvellosity wrote:
do you agree with me though our chances are increased by killing roleblocker? (2-1-1 instead of 2-2-1)?

A no lynch at 2-1-1 and lynching mafia at 2-2-1 going into night means both situation resolve to a 2-1-1 night phase. The difference is that in one SK has to hit mafia at night and in one we as a town have to lynch mafia during the day. The SK can't win if he hits town tonight so he will be aiming for mafia.

Now the other problem is that you are almost certainty going to die tonight unless Mafia tries to kill SK. So tomorrow town won't have a confirmed townie to spear head the vote. When todays lynch flips red I think it will confirm your theory so town will vote accordingly. I think you should list out after the lynch who the next target should be to be sure whichever case it is the shot/lynch goes accordingly.