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Finally some clear headed thinking! Thank you.
I'll address some of the points that are coming up.
1st: I know that millers /framers / godfathers may be present. This doesn't change anything. Why?
I am not the detective if that is what you are concerned about. Evidence in favor of this?
Jaj22 was detective. He is dead 100% confirmed detective. Could there be multiple? Sure, but probably not.
More importantly, I started my case day 1, and continued before night 1 ended. Detective checks come back at day if I am not mistaken. You do not need to fear my case being tunneling due to a framed/miller check.
2nd: People are starting to think that I am tunneling. You guys are mistaken. I am making sure that this lynch is going through. The reason why I haven't moved on to openly discussing my reads on other players is because there is serious clutter and spam going on in the thread and already a few people have been persuaded to move their votes off DYH.
I can see you guys hungry for direction and experience. The only reason why I've withheld from posting is for the sole reason of getting this lynch through. Put your vote on DYH, put my mind at ease and I will be more free to scumhunt rather than focus town.
Posting a couple of my reads after this.
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On February 21 2012 12:04 trackd00r wrote:
I'm afraid that after lynching DYH, regardless of he flips green or red, we might be in the same situation that we were on day 1, with no clear cases or too many that could risk a no-lynch.
There are a number of avenues we could pursue, as laid out by multiple people in this thread. Mattchew's scum-team-list is an obvious one, my scum reads last night also, also other people's reads on others, etc. We have a lot of options at this point, but we should not get derailed from the focus of today's lynch. Which is DYH.
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These are who I will probably go for after DYH lynch.
1st suspect:
Alderan
(as reference MG already has a read on him, but I will be looking at his newer content).
On February 21 2012 05:51 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +As for where I'm leaning currently, I don't buy the DoYouHas case. If you start analysis from the when DoYouHas ended the fight with Sloosh on the first day, all I see is Sloosh hardline tunneling and/or a horrendous case of confirmation bias. The only suspicious play I read from DoYouHas was after that initial drop in the fight with Sloosh he actually returned and voted for him. Sloosh I find far more suspicious. He has tunneled harder than anyone in this thread, while attempting to squash any other discussion (discussion about me included). A quote like this is the most damning. On February 20 2012 14:05 slOosh wrote:
Sounds good. My read on you was based upon you thinking DYH as town. As you state that you don't, I drop my suspicion.
My point about him making a case is that he will actually try making a proper case.
Notice he FOSed you, not voted. He has drawn such a distinct line in the sand that anyone who feels DYH is town must be scum. That flies in the face of optimal town play, so much so that I would say he is my number one suspicion at the moment.
On February 21 2012 09:26 Alderan wrote:Show nested quote +Sloosh, you wanted me to skim through your filter and I did. You told me that I would find evidence that you were being pro town, supporting discussion and not tunneling DYH. I took your advice and here's all the pro-discussion posts I found: What we need right now is focus. Work with the current cases unless you have something really compelling to share. Your stance on DYH and MG? MidnightGladius: What do you think of DoYouHas? And THEN you realize DYH is gonna be lynched so you say this: It is in our best interest to now redirect our focus on finding new scum candidates, rather than taking a break until he gets lynched. Time is valuable and I do not want people to become lax. Saying that you are not hard lining DYH is asinine, you absolutely are. You just think there no more reason to pursue him as your goal is already complete. But this is the one I ESPECIALLY LOVE Whether DYH flips red or green should not direct us to our next lynch target.
Mafia know each other and can manipulate their connections, knowing that they might be linked.
This is the equivalent of saying, "Guys, guys, check it out, we totally shouldn't look at who started the train on DYH if he flips green, I'm sure it doesn't mean anything..... Let's be real though, all this "pro-town" discussion didn't get in the way of you throwing out gems like this: WOW. Lynch him NOW.... Don't even wait for his case. Lynch him. TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN??? Sounds good. My read on you was based upon you thinking DYH as town. As you state that you don't, I drop my suspicion.
I've been ignoring him because hasn't given anything substantial but it seems like some of you are actually taking this guy seriously.
Read the bold in the 1st quote and think about his stance on me. Then look at where his vote is.
Oh, surely it would be found on slOosh, his "number one suspicion" no?
Well, no. It's nowhere to be found. Why wouldn't you put your vote on your #1 suspect when you clearly don't have anything else? I said it of DYH and I'll say it now of Alderan.
The townie's power is in his vote. Townies do not treat their votes like trash.
Secondly, he is trying to tarnish my name with mudslinging. He has been prodded a few times to give actual argument as to why he thinks I am scum or DYH is town and he hasn't. Read his little filter and he has a couple of weak lines but nothing as substantial as my case. Just some "I don't buy it, slOosh is tunneling and therefore mafia" etc.
I've explained in my latest post why I am not tunneling.
As for his accusation that I am trying to resolve myself of a mislynch blame:
If you read the context of the posts and think about what I have been doing.
I moved on after securing the lynch. It's what I've been saying the whole time.
I'll say it right here: I take full responsibility as the creator and supporter and advocate of the DYH case.
The stuff where I talk about his flip is advice on how to logically respond to an unlikely DYH town flip, not me trying to ditch responsibility. I really don't know how anyone could think I wouldn't be thought of should DYH flip green.
His actions and reasoning doesn't match at all. I can't really give more analysis since he hasn't posted anything of substance.
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rgTheSchworz, we need you in the thread asap. Post your thoughts and the current happenings on the thread, even if you haven't been quite able to read everything.
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2nd suspect:
Mattchew
1st: He doesn't post his reasoning publicly, but says stuff like "its the obvious choice". This is refusal to take any responsibility or help other people understand where he is coming from is scum play, or extremely anti-town at best.
2nd: On February 21 2012 10:39 slOosh wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 12:52 Mattchew wrote:On February 20 2012 12:42 slOosh wrote:
TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN???
We have ONE Lynch. ONE. If you want to FOS someone else you better have a good reason why you aren't voting DYH or Midnight or Echelon or whoever.
We find and lynch mafia ONE AT A TIME.
this. 100x over this Not reading anything till you explain this.
And I stand by it. Read his quote. Then look at what he does. If he is of firm belief in taking out mafia one at a time, why the heck would he post four suspects at the same time, then draw people to look at these new guys?
On February 21 2012 09:21 Mattchew wrote:
sloosh i want you to drop the DYH tunnel you have and actually look at this
DYH you were already on hawkins a little read this through
gumshoe read this carefully and quote it properly if you want to reply
ald and steve i think you might have been starting to head this way, I will now take you to the promised land
ET you might have been getting at this but idk where you were actually headed
Janaan you seem to just want a lynch read this and want these lynches
##unvote Doyouhas
##vote TKHawkins
His words and actions are contradictory. Even if he truly believed DYH is town (which he has provided no reasoning for), there is no reason he would fling out 4 suspects at once. His posts have an effect of derailing town off the DYH lynch. Whether intentional (I think so) or not, it is both anti-town and contradictory play.
3rd: Discrepancy between his magic vig shot list (again something posted without reasoning) and his massive conspiracy theory.
On February 21 2012 00:41 Mattchew wrote:
As of right now
rgTheSchworz - lets give him a chance to post a little
DoYouHas - should be lynched today
Of these five, 2 or 3 should be the remaining scum team (+/- rg) This is who vig should shoot into in this order
Alderan
TKHawkins
trackd00r
Janaan
zelblade
Remaining Skeptical of
EchelonTee
When is night post?
anyone can answer this
How did Alderan and Janaan disappear without reason and get replaced with MidnightGladius?
4th:
Read that last quote on his thought on DYH. Then read his filter observing his stance on DYH.
On February 21 2012 00:46 Mattchew wrote:
I read DYH's filter and there are a bunch of good cases on him. That is my reason for voting him. I am accountable for my vote and my agreeing with others reads.
On February 21 2012 03:30 Mattchew wrote:
I don't want to de-rail the DYH lynching I think it is the right play
Jumps to
On February 21 2012 09:26 Mattchew wrote:
oh... and wouldnt you know they are all on DYH... doesnt that lynch seem to be going through just TOO easily... yes it does.
(i know this is a little WIFOM but combined with my prior posts it turns more into logic) On February 21 2012 11:21 Mattchew wrote:regarding DYH This is Palmar's smurf (Palmar isone of the best scum hunters on TL, he found every mafia in this newbie game day 1) Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 10:33 ElectricBlack wrote:
If he is scum, he's the first scum I've ever seen actually trying to push the town away from lynching lurkers on day 1. I'd say I have a pretty strong town read on Velinath at this point. The only thing that worries me in his play is the lack of people under serious pressure, but I can sort-of relate to that, as it's already evident this town is going to be both active and hold a fairly high quality of posting.
( post link) Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 11:51 DoYouHas wrote:
The point is not to lynch lurkers, it is to lynch scum. If a lynching a lurker is the best option we have near a deadline, then by all means, let's do it. But policy lynching is just a terrible idea. I am already looking suspiciously at the ET for espousing it.
FOS: EchelonTee this is DYH pushing town away from lynching lurkers
Still an extreme lack of reasoning and additional contradiction (saying he does not want to derail DYH lynch but in fact trying to do the exact opposite)
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Eh, I don't agree with you on Mattchew. I can't see a scum team with both him and DYH.
While I don't like that Mattchew isn't posting his reasoning, I don't find that to be incriminating as of yet.
I feel that you are simply going after people that are not voting for DYH at this moment; there is plenty of reason to think that a scum is busing DYH.
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Yea, they were just preliminary reads. I haven't had much chance to actually build another solid case as I spent all my efforts securing this lynch. I'll be taking some time off for IRL stuff and hopefully be back with refreshed mind and a proper case.
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Day 2, with 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Current votes:
DoYouHas (9): slOosh, Mattchew, Janaan, gumshoe, MidnightGladius, EchelonTee, zelblade, trackd00r, Steveling, TKHawkins, -Mattchew, -Janaan, Janaan
MidnightGladius (1): gumshoe, -gumshoe, DoYouHas
TKHawkins (1): Mattchew
Not voting: Alderan, rgTheSchworz
The Day deadline is at 2012-02-22 09:00:00. (That's approximately 17:38:20 from now.)
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Thread is slowing down. Alderan / rgTheSchworz, you really have to commit soon.
@TKHawkins, if you could kill anyone besides DYH right now, who would that be?
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On February 21 2012 16:01 EchelonTee wrote:
Thread is slowing down. Alderan / rgTheSchworz, you really have to commit soon.
@TKHawkins, if you could kill anyone besides DYH right now, who would that be?
I think it's just because of the time, most people aren't going to be very active right now. I'm barely awake as it is. As for Schworz, I don't think he's posted even one post yet, it's possible he doesn't even know he's playing yet. Hopefully he starts posting soon, though, and doesn't come in right before the deadline.
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On February 21 2012 16:07 Janaan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 16:01 EchelonTee wrote:
Thread is slowing down. Alderan / rgTheSchworz, you really have to commit soon.
@TKHawkins, if you could kill anyone besides DYH right now, who would that be? I think it's just because of the time, most people aren't going to be very active right now. I'm barely awake as it is. As for Schworz, I don't think he's posted even one post yet, it's possible he doesn't even know he's playing yet. Hopefully he starts posting soon, though, and doesn't come in right before the deadline.
I know, I'm not implying any duplicity at the lack of activity; I'd just like it if anyone who is currently reading the thread, to post their thoughts on it. You included, of course.
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Well, lets see. First thing that comes to mind is the vote on DoYouHas. Assuming that DYH does, in fact, flip red, I'm almost certain that there's at least some bussing going on, it looked pretty obvious that the vote would at least 90% happen about when Midnight, Echelon, and Steveling posted. The voters after then were Trackd00r and Hawkins, with Mattchew vote-changing to Hawkins.
I'm not saying that this in any way means that those players are mafia, but it can at least give us a direction to head I think.
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On February 21 2012 09:16 Mattchew wrote:i think i found the scum team... the entire scum team. Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 05:06 Mattchew wrote:
Zelblade, trackd00r, MidnightGladius, TKHawkins
all switched from ET to Dimmu outstandingly quickly.
This set off an alarm, so I went back and read the exchange of the final hour before the mislynch. The four of them take over the thread here CLICK MEor for those of us to lazy to click and re-read + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:57 jaj22 wrote:
TKHawkins? Gumshoe? Anyone?
I'm thinking this is so tough to get a majority that we might even have picked scum.
On February 19 2012 08:58 MidnightGladius wrote:
TKHawkins, you mispelled it. It won't get counted. On February 19 2012 08:58 trackd00r wrote:hawkins you wrote wrong!!  On February 19 2012 08:59 slOosh wrote:
Copy paste one of our votes
On February 19 2012 08:26 zelblade wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:07 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 07:59 slOosh wrote:MidnightGladius played totally weird day 1 when he was vig. I can understand the conclusions he came to, and maybe his difference in play is attributable to him not being a vig this time around. On February 19 2012 06:23 slOosh wrote:On February 19 2012 05:20 MidnightGladius wrote:
sl00sh has been quiet, but I'm going to leave him be for now. He doesn't stand out from the rest of the lurkers, and I don't think pressuring him with this little time left in the day will be as effective as just confirming our lynch for the day. Your post left out your thoughts on EchelonTee. What are your thoughts on him and his posting? I discourage trying to lynch MidnightGladius today. Not because he is leaving me alone, but because his focus is on finding scum, not using his precious first day vote to pressure me. I'm not saying he isn't mafia. I'm saying that right now DoYouHas seems like a much better suspect. Midnight is at least following town logic, and I agree with the logic he uses (such as not wanting to share town reads right now. I don't agree with some conclusions he is coming to but the logic is sound). DoYouHas, however is not being logical at all, even though he demonstrates that he knows what town should do in NMMIII. Him not going for any solid reads is very suspicious, I agree. He posted a lot, early last game, even though he was blue, so he would have no reason to be so under the radar at the moment. If he seriously does not change his vote before deadline, then I will find that highly suspicious. His case on you is not solid enough to leave his vote there. However, there is no way enough momentum will be achieved to lynch him atm, and any attempt to do so would be a massive vote switch with not enough discussion. which is bad. MidnightGladius not wanting to share town reads is good logic, but that just means that he is skilled enough to know to say that. You say that he is trying to find scum, but I argue he is only looking for easy mislynches. Im pretty sure that DYH has stated that he will not be around for the lynch, and a few hours after it. Which solidifies the notion that he is scum. I seriously doubt a townie DYH would just dump his vote on such a weak read heavily based on his expactations of sl0osh, formed on ONE game. He is a good player, and this doesnt seem like him. On February 19 2012 08:26 MidnightGladius wrote:
We have less than an hour to reach a consensus. How many people are even active right now?
Mattchew, I thought you wouldn't be around. Why are you voting for me? On February 19 2012 08:28 zelblade wrote:
Midnight, can u adress the case posted by ET? What are your thoughts on him after his defense and what do you think of his case on you? On February 19 2012 08:29 MidnightGladius wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 08:13 MidnightGladius wrote:
EchelonTee:
1. My first post in NMM3 responded to other posts because other people had posted. In this game, I was the second poster, concurrent with DYH. Your allegation is baseless.
2. Our posting styles are different. You dislike mine, and I dislike yours. Fine. What specifically have I not contributed to? What topics have I failed to address? What questions have I failed to answer?
3. I was referring to FP's terrible use of statistics (saying that 30% chance on a random lynch was good), not the fact that he was green. Anyone trying to use bad reasoning is anti-town in my eyes.
4. jaj22 has no valid case on me. If he did, he would be presenting one. I don't see it. Do you? Don't push him into taking shots at me that he clearly isn't willing to take.
5. gumshoe and I had been the only ones going back and forth for quite some time. He asked me some questions, I answered them, and suggested that we both back off for a bit to cool down and sleep on our thoughts. I happen to think that my reasoning is good, and you still haven't convinced me otherwise. If you think that I'm completely and utterly scummy, then you really need to take a step back and fully re-evaluate the claims that you're making and the evidence from which you're making them. On February 19 2012 08:33 MidnightGladius wrote:
People who seem to be active right now:
1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe
We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.
Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess. On February 19 2012 08:35 trackd00r wrote:Lynch time is approaching. ET, I just hope that you keep posting good cases like that. Even though I disagree with MG lynch, your last posts are making up my mind. I'm going to unvote by now. As for the candidates we have now, I think that our biggest option is DimmuKlok. Yes, it's been a while since you haven't posted good content. This post caught my attention: Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 14:27 DimmuKlok wrote:
I accidentally posted before I was finished. I will continue from where i left off.
I'm not actually sure what you meant by that, but nothing in that post was sarcasm. I'm was not bandwagoning when it came to gumshoe. He was one of my highest suspicions at the time of the post, and remains the highest on my list. For this reason I'm giving him my vote.
If there is anything I can do for you guys to help prove my innocence then feel free to post it.
##vote: gumshoe Proving your innocence is something that you should be doing subconsciously when playing as town. You know that you are innocent, and that should be enough to show your confidence to us. I expect a mafia player trying to ask for help, but not a townie. Your other posts were your defense against alderan, apologies and calling out lurkers. I think that scum is making it's best effort to hide your case, but as the lynch is coming, I have to cast a realistic vote that doesn't hurt the town. ##Unvote: EchelonTee##Vote: DimmuKlokThe is a chance that I miss the lynch, but I'll try to not. On February 19 2012 08:35 zelblade wrote:
I am quite sure that both of you arent scum. Can we get a switch to DYH? I will add my vote onto one of you guys if neccessary, but only to prevent a no lynch - as that would be disatrious. On February 19 2012 08:39 zelblade wrote:
Just filtered DimmuKlok. Wouldnt terribly mind lynching him.
Guys if you are here, please chime in. Dont bring up new candidates please. Also, those on gumshoe should switch since it seems like he wont be lynched if you are here. Its going to be hard to achieve a majority and we need every single one of you here, and if you are, vote for one of the four NOW. On February 19 2012 08:44 zelblade wrote:
Gosh we are gonna no lynch at this rate. On February 19 2012 08:44 MidnightGladius wrote:
20 minutes left. Are we seriously just going to sit idly and let the first day go by?
##Unvote: EchelonTee
##Vote: DimmuKlok On February 19 2012 08:45 jaj22 wrote:
I don't want to lynch DYH, as I think his posting was fine up to the lynch business. It's possible he felt it was the best of two bad options.
DimmuKlok is plausible scum due to lack of contribution but also plausible scared-town. I'm considering him as a compromise vote.
TKHawkins and Sloosh should still be around.
On February 19 2012 08:46 EchelonTee wrote:
I'm fine with DimmuKlok lynch. Obviously don want no lynch still dotaing. On February 19 2012 08:46 zelblade wrote:
##Unvote
##Vote: DimmuKlok
DYH will sadly not be lynched today, so Im switching to my 2nd strongest read (on the four current candidates) On February 19 2012 08:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
In that case we still need 1 more vote on DimmuKlok to get majority. Where did everyone who was posting earlier go?
I still don't have replies from:
- gumshoe
- Mattchew
- Janaan
gumshoe was active all of yesterday, and now he suddenly decides to disappear? At the most important time? And then Mattchew pops into the thread, posts a one-liner, and vanishes again? When he said earlier that he wouldn't be back until after the lynch? Christ in buckets. On February 19 2012 08:52 jaj22 wrote:
Switching to DimmuKlok. That makes six, and seven if ET switches. Need one more to lynch.
##Unvote
##Vote DimmuKlok
On February 19 2012 08:52 slOosh wrote:
Not letting no lynch happen.
##Unvote
##Vote DimmuKlok Now tell me this doesn't look like teamwork. They don't even have to provide a reason other than "i don't want a no-lynch and I dont like the midnight case" Sloosh and Jaj get pulled into the lynching is pro-town atmosphere and then when 1 more vote is needed TKHAWKINS MAGICALLY ARRIVES READY TO CHANGE HIS VOTE WOO WOO. reading their filters they are all afraid to talk about one another... do a ctrl f of eachMidnightGladiusMG has 3 pages of filter, yet only mention zelblade once here + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:33 MidnightGladius wrote:
People who seem to be active right now:
1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe
We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.
Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess. he only mentions tkhawk once here + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 08:59 MidnightGladius wrote:
In buckets! and a ctrl-f of track provides 0 results ZelbladeZelblade reads midnight from null to town very quickly and back to null again Ctrl-F reveals + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 14:02 zelblade wrote:
I am null on MidnightGladius for now. His posts have been related to the setup as mentioned, but he did seem to focus alot on the setup in Newbie Mini Mafia III too. Could go either way for now. On February 19 2012 08:24 zelblade wrote:
Now onto MidnightGladius. I do not believe that he is mafia. He seems to be playing really similiar to NMMIII, where he (on day 1 at least) constantly posts fluff and speculates on the setup. However, ET raises some good points against MG, and I would like to see his responses especially to the "scumslip" raised by ET. I am not willing to lynch him for now.
On February 19 2012 08:28 zelblade wrote:
Midnight, can u adress the case posted by ET? What are your thoughts on him after his defense and what do you think of his case on you? As for EchelonTee and MidnightGladius, The two of them were the main candidates for lynch today before the last minute switch to dimmu since the players present couldnt achieve a majority on either of them. Honestly, I had them pegged as both town. The main reason for my suspisions on ET earlier was for his sheep vote before going away without any sort of reasoning - and I expect more from him due to the fact that he seems to be a good and experienced player. His responses to my suspisions and the many other cases on him are also good, and he clearly addresses them, as well as posting a detailed case on MG. As such, I dropped my vote on him. I have also repetadely stated that MG is probably town - he seems to be playing similar to last game, with a tendancy to post fluff and speculation regarding the setup. I also didnt really find his actions condemning. However, having reread his filter and taken another look at ET's case, he does seem to have a tendancy to push only the easiest targerts. I would really like to see him make a few more reads. Another thing that is suspisious about the both of them is their actions leading up to the lynch. Despite apparently being convinced that each other was scum, they hardly did anything about it, hardly pushing each other. If my strongest scum read was closest to majority along with me, I would definately attempt to get as many as possible to switch off me and onto my scum read. I can understand their reasons for switching, but them not pushing harder seems wierd to me. For now, these two could, imo, flip any way. They could be 2 townies tunneling each other, a townie and a mafia going at each other, or perhaps even 2 mafia bussing each other (doubtful). Either way, my reads on both of them are Null for now. With Tk its 1 post leaning town + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:
TKHawkins - As with Janaan, transparent. Even though I dont really agree with some of his reads and logic, I get the feel of townie trying to help from him. Leaning [green]town[/green].
with track he's null + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:trackdo0r - He has been transparent with his reads during the first part of the day. However, he has started to post less, and the content of his posts have also dwindled. Im gonna just quote you here: Show nested quote +-Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. Do what you have asked me to do. Instead of apologising for your inactivity, post your reads, and push them. You have promised them though, and i will be looking forward to seeing them. Null for now. His soft defenses and weak town reads on midnight + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote:
-MidnightGladius has somewhat posted in the begging of the game. However, he does still have that flaw present in the past game, which is to make useless calculations and proportions about the mafia/town ratio. I feel that doesn't really contributes much to the dialogue. His next post have been better though, analyzing and commenting about the Echelon-sloosh clash and the not that succesful plan of gumshoe. I hope he keeps like that.
Important to mention that those 3 players had blue roles in NMM3, so looking through their posts in the next days can make a clearer picture of them and their attitude to everything in general.
On February 18 2012 11:39 trackd00r wrote:
MidnightGladius: You are in the very edge of what I consider constructive posting and what is just repeating what others said. I look you more to the path of constructiveness, but I'm expecting more about you. Your posting was slightly better in NMM3, although limited still (you were vig that game). Be a little more aggressive, but that's all.
On February 18 2012 12:54 trackd00r wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 12:49 EchelonTee wrote:
trackdoor, my plan is to lynch scum. as townie, i'm nost supposed to have elaborate plans. why would u assume that i have a master plan
can ppl stop ignoring my post on dimmuklok. stop saying that i'm doing nothing and posting "flashy", i posted some analysis. OK, fine. Now I would like to hear some analysis about your vote on MidnightGladius On February 20 2012 12:23 trackd00r wrote:
Personally, I'm not convinced with MidnightGladius case. I don't agree with the reasoning that jaj and ET gave. I'm not going to get into details about that, since we need to focus in other targets that don't create chaos.
His softest pressure in the world into friendly town read on Zelblade + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 01:59 trackd00r wrote:
-Zelbalde has only posted once, giving advice to us and apologizing. This was his biggest flaw last game. We know that you are a busy person zelblade, but posting just once is fine, instead of refilling your posts with more 'sorry' and making you either difficult to read or a scum candidate. On February 18 2012 23:41 trackd00r wrote:
Zelblade, I'm glad you are posting again
On February 21 2012 01:15 trackd00r wrote:
Regarding the DYH situation, I believe the best we can do is hold the vote to him. The only real and possibly working solution that scum can pull if DYH is red is to push other cases now. I agree with the points that Zelblade made. No one is going to jump into the spotlight and defend him.
Next to nothing on TK + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 11:39 trackd00r wrote:TWhawkins This has been his only contribution so far: Show nested quote +On February 17 2012 13:56 TKHawkins wrote:
Welcome.
First game on this forum. Anyway, I don't think Gumshoes poll is scummy. It's more likely he just thought "he I wonder if this idea would work." Clearly the answer is no and he didn't really think it through. Seems like more of newbie attempt at something more then anything else. I'm sure the obsever quick thread is already LOLing hard at us. I laughed too (and didn't vote since I hadn't known the game had started).
As for the policy on Lurker hunting, it's obviously a bit early to call people lurkers since many people might not even know the game has started yet (though definately not too early to discuss how to handle lurkers). It is best not to go after lurkers right away. The mafia generally aren't going to be completely inactive at the start. Rather, they are going to try to blend in. Scum post a reasonable amount, but don't contribute.
And finally, the Sl0osh vs Ech thing, I do think it's suspicious for Sl0osh to be acting defensive already. We need to hear more. Please, don't be shy. Come with some accusations. Your posts somewhat seem to you to look interested, but your post count says to opposite. On February 18 2012 23:41 trackd00r wrote:
@TKhawkins: There is a huge difference between a player who posts lots of content less posts and one who post a few but deep and content. For example blae000 hasn't posted a lot of times, but his posts are good. Ech and gumshoe, in the other hand...
Literally the worst post about a player I have ever seen... about zelblade... from "I don't see how he is contributing" to "Pro-town" IN LESS THAN 2 SENTENCES LOL + Show Spoiler +On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Zelblade Says Ech is mafia and... that's it? I don't see how he is contributing if he is only going to comment on one or two players. The stuff he says about Ech though is good. Pro-town, but lurking too much.
On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Midnight I can't get a solid read on him.
On February 19 2012 02:53 TKHawkins wrote:
Blae, since I have you here, what do you think of Midnight? On February 19 2012 04:37 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 03:34 jaj22 wrote:On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
jaj Says flashy and aggressive play are not scummy when talking about Ech. But that's also how he is playing. Convenient eh? Would like more of an explanation about why Midnight in particular deserves a pressure vote, when there are so many others that could have used that too. 1. If you don't believe me on that point, you can PM Palmar and ask him. Or you can just read Palmar's town play. 2. That's not a pressure vote. I think he's scum. You can tell because I wrote a case on him with his name in bold red text. While his contribution to town is no lower than a lot of other players, he's the one who should know better. I'll be writing another post covering his play since my case shortly. It's not that I don't think the point is generally valid. It's that I think it's self serving. It's like one blonde saying to another blonde that "blondes have more fun." Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:31 jaj22 wrote:
Ok, screw it. I'm making a case.
MidnightGladius:
1. Starts off with a number of completely useless posts on setup. Didn't even do the probability.
2. Makes the usual post on ET vs Sloosh and Gumshoe's poll. Yeah, so did everyone else.
3. Votes the easy target (MannerKiss) with an elaborate lurker-lynch reasoning.
4. Votes the easy target (Gumshoe) because he spams and sucks at statistics.
That's it. Low post count apart from the setup filler. No interest in anyone in except the easy targets, and contributing next to nothing to town as a result. I don't think he posted much more in Newbie Mini III, but he had the excuse of being blue there, and it was a slower game (too damn slow). He should know better.
Probably much too early to be putting people in bold red, but I'm bored waiting for all the lurkers to post.
Like I said earlier, I still can't get a good read on Midnight, and looking through filters neither can a few other people. Even your accusation starts with "oh, screw it. I'm making a case." That makes me think you don't even believe the accusation yourself. You even say the only reason you did it was because you were bored. If you have something more since then to back it up, please post. Otherwise there is no way in hell I'm voting for Midnight based on just that. On February 19 2012 05:50 TKHawkins wrote:##Vote: EchelonTeeHe rides the coat tails of other people's thoughts + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 09:54 EchelonTee wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2012 09:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
Finally some excitement! Or are you just going to run some of that point-by-point analysis with the red numbers? you're hilarious. DoYouHas, I'm soft defending gumshoe now. I guess you were writing up your post without seeing the updates. We have the same thoughts though. Let's lynch MidnightGladius. Or DimmuKloK no seriously, I gtg. I love the activity though, so refreshing  He then jumps along with jaj22's post and votes for Midnight. He would not be on my radar if it wasn't for that. I can't see a strong reason for the MidnightGladius vote especially with both the people voting for him not backing up their vote once it's questioned. On February 19 2012 08:57 TKHawkins wrote:
Bah accidentally deleted my post because I was flipping through various windows. ##unvote: EchelonTee While I don't completely believe his read on Midnight enough to vote for Midnight, Ech at least followed through with his word and eventually gave a reason (abiet, giving people like me very little time left to change our votes).
##Vote DimmunKlok He's the best candidate we got right now. On February 19 2012 11:27 TKHawkins wrote:Alright, having reread some stuff after the flip, Alderan was the first to put up a case for DDimmuKlok and stuck on him. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:34 Alderan wrote:On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:
Dimmuklok responded adequately to Alderan's post, which was similar to mine. DYH and sloosh need more info as far as I'm concerned, so that only leaves:
Can someone please explain this sentiment? Am I missing something? To my case he responded:"I'm new, I'm new, I don't understand your case, I'm new." His play after my case:"I'm still on my gumshoe wagon, I don't know what to think about Midnight, I don't know what I think about Hawkin and Manner, and I'm too tired to give an opinion on Steveling" If someone can please point me to the direction of pro town play I would greatly appreciate it. And he is another player posting his inability to read Midnight and some weak calls. On February 20 2012 05:29 TKHawkins wrote:Thoughts on EchelonTee I still don't buy the Midnight argument. There is sorta a WIFOM argument to his post's existence. Half the town had told him if he didn't post something against Midnight, we were lynching him. So, he posted something against Midnight. He'd post that regardless of whether he was town or scum. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 07:24 EchelonTee wrote:On February 18 2012 06:31 MidnightGladius wrote:On February 18 2012 06:14 gumshoe wrote:On February 18 2012 05:53 DoYouHas wrote:On February 18 2012 05:44 gumshoe wrote:
Definitley need to take the risk of a lurker lynch, there are three lurkers currently in the game, manner zell and one more I forget, theres a 75 percent chance one of them is mafia. A chance I think we need to take cause were one townie short.
Could you explain this further? I don't follow the 75% chance. In a sample group of 4 random players in a 16 player game with 4 mafia its almost a 100 percent chance that one of the 4 in the random group is mafia, this is not a random group though, none of these 3 specific lurkers have contributed much making them suspeicius which increases the odds of them bieng mafia. Overall if we pick a lynch from of the three random lurkers there is statistically speaking a good chance that one of them will be mafia, because a) one in four players is probably mafia and b) there behaviour is suspicious. I only see three obvious lurkers therefore the odds are not 100 percent of one of them being mafia. There is a 60 percent chance rather(15 divided by 5 = 3 three is 20 percent of 15. So the odds of three random players being lurkers is twenty percent, but the odds of one of them being mafia is 60 percent exactly. Christ in buckets, it's FakePromise all over again :S Gumshoe's statistical analysis is misleading and flawed. I'd rather not clutter up this topic with the details, but in non-technical terms, he's making WIFOM assumptions in setting up the problem, not counting the distribution of outcomes properly, and I don't even know how what he means by: [redacted] At this point I'm going to have to assume malicious intent. Several of us have warned him about this, and he's continuing to try and derail the discussion. He's been spamming even more than before, using really bizarre logic to defend himself, and he still has yet to provide much in the way of content. In a way, this is worse than lurking, and it's way beyond what I would expect an innocent newbie to do :/ ##Unvote: MannerKiss##Vote: Gumshoe 3..........this has to be a scum slip. FakePromise was a GREEN, TOWNIE last game. If you see another fakepromise, why are you voting him??? How is he being malicious, hes just making bad statistical analysis!! at this point you are pushing a terrible lynch. So he thinks Midnight voting Gumshoe is a terrible lynch push and comparing Gumshoe to FakePromise is a scum slip. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:27 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 08:19 gumshoe wrote:
I have an aching feeling that Ech will flip green if we kill him ) : that opening move of his was almost as bad as mine and hes supposed to be good, I cant imagine him being coached by other mafia through all this. I hate it but its gonna have to be a no lynch unless gladeus says he eats babies or something. Maybe we can vote for one of the lurkers? Manner/michael? Zell?
1. i'm not good. why suggest this so openly. this is my 4th game playing. 2. as mattchew said, this could be a scumslip; he knows I would flip green and is planting this. After my aggressive opening towards gumshoe I dont know why he would support me as such. Thoughts? Oh so pushing Gumshoe back into the center of attention. Ech thinks Gumshoe could be scum now. So that means Midnight's push to lynch him wasn't terrible. So your justification for going after Midnight has gone away right? Nope. Show nested quote +On February 19 2012 09:38 EchelonTee wrote:On February 19 2012 09:33 slOosh wrote:
So ... the lynch is over and you two (EchelonTee & MidnightGladius) just drop the cases on each other?
What do you guys think of each other? I still think he's scum. Going after Mattchew, Mannerkiss's replacement is consistent, so I can't fault him for that, but I can't agree with him wanting to vote him for 1. voting himself, aka OMGUS, and 2. being AWOL from thread with excuse. he could be using his phone you know. Or maybe he hasn't quite left yet. Point is, mattchew isn't being constructive but he not an autovote. especially because he's only posted a bit. However, I think examining the other happenings in the thread is a good idea. I could endlessly tunnel Midnight, but I need to get a good look at the bigger picture. Besides, you really think its strange that I'm addressing the lynch that just happened, over midnight? I was literally the last voter on him, I should be scrutinized for doing so. On February 20 2012 11:28 TKHawkins wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2012 10:43 gumshoe wrote:
DYH what do you think of my argument about Jaj being the best pick due to his death leaving so many conflicts intact, and what do you think of Hawk? The reason I ask the first question is because I think you and sloosh might have to drop your fight and I think I have to stop attacking Steveling as well, because I feel like the mafia took care to leave these flimsy conflicts intact so they could continue to create chaos, thats why I think they killed jaj despite the fact that the case for him being blue was not 100 percent(though as I mentioned earlier it did seem pretty strong from my perspective). That is unless Jaj posed the biggest threat regardless and just had to die. Which do you think was the bigger reason? conflict preservation or threat elimination?
Oh and the second question about Hawk is just out of curiosity(SUSPICIOUS CURIOSITY!) That's the definition of WIFOM logic. Best not to over think it. As for your suspicions against me because I was against the Midnight vote. I couldn't get a good read on Midnight, and neither can a lot of people. The only people who did have a read on him were reading him as scum. That fact alone is odd and suspicious. I'm not sure Midnight is town, I'm just more comfortable following my own reads then blindly following somebody else's. On February 20 2012 12:08 TKHawkins wrote:
I'm not sold on the logic of the Midnight read, but I'm not going to go after you anymore based on just a bad read.
Track - from 1 question, 1 answer to pro-town + Show Spoiler +On February 18 2012 16:25 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor, just a question. I seem to recall you being one of the few who didn't want to lynch lurkers. But your analysis seems to be mostly, this guy is posting a lot so he's town. Have you changed your policy on lynching lurkers or is this just your way to make them post? On February 19 2012 01:05 TKHawkins wrote:
@Trackdoor. Alright, I get your explanation on the lurker thing. On February 19 2012 02:45 TKHawkins wrote:
Trackdoor Pressuring lurkers to post. Makes reasonable statements about Ech. Isn't being super aggressive, but rather analytic. Pro-town read.
I think that this is a load of bullcrap. In that list of mine that you mention, I have many other leaning town and null reads - such as bale, janaan and steve. I dont see how the four of us are connected just because we are "all afraid to talk about one another". In fact, I seriously doubt mafia is sitting still with all town reads on each other and I am relatively sure that they at the very least have dumped some suspision on each other.
Also, regarding the day one lynch, I have stated many times my reason for pushing a dimmuklok lynch is simple. I believe that a no-lynch greatly hurts town as it just gives mafia a free night for kills and provides hardly any information whatsoever. The main candidates at that time were ET and MG - both of whom I didnt believe would flip scum at that time. Therefore, I attempted to push out a lynch on DYH - which apparently failed due to the lack of support from the active townies. Thus, I went on to the next best lynch in my mind - dimmuklok - which i felt had a higher chance to flip scum than any of the top candidates. As such, I pushed forward for his lynch and tried to get people to switch. I dont see how doing so is scummy in any way, nor do I see how it connects me to the rest who were actively trying to secure a lynch. In fact, if I was scum, I would just have afk'd and watched a no-lynch happen and give my team a free kill at night.
In my opinion, you are forming non-exsistent links among a few players just because we seem like we are "afraid" to mention each other.
Also, why the sudden switch? Sloosh makes extermely good points regarding you - on how you simply throw out four candidates on weak reasoning - and state that DYH is town without a decent amount of reasoning.
I think we have found a scum here guys. Of course I still want DYH to flip today, but we hang Mattchew tomorrow.
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On February 21 2012 11:00 gumshoe wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2012 10:39 slOosh wrote:On February 20 2012 12:52 Mattchew wrote:On February 20 2012 12:42 slOosh wrote:
TOWN ARE YOU TRYING TO GO FOR NO LYNCH AGAIN???
We have ONE Lynch. ONE. If you want to FOS someone else you better have a good reason why you aren't voting DYH or Midnight or Echelon or whoever.
We find and lynch mafia ONE AT A TIME.
this. 100x over this Not reading anything till you explain this. DYH will be lynched today. Unless anyone has substantial evidence as to why he is town,
HE WILL BE LYNCHED TODAY. Sloosh, you know there can be framers in this game right?
What the hell is this? If you have spotted a blue, I see ZERO reason to point it out to the rest of the thread - unless they are gonna get lynched, and even so im pretty sure they can claim themselves at that point - which definately isnt the case here. Just be quiet and let them do their job. All this does is give additional targerts to mafia. Dont ever do this please.
Also, possible scumslip? Why do you think that there are framers in the game? Framers arent really a common role from what I understand, and if I did think that sloosh was tunneling due to a wrong check I would be much more open to the idea of a miller rather than a framer, as I believe that they are a much more common role as opposed to framers.
Why, gumshoe, did you think that (note that all this is under gum's apparent suspision that sloosh DT'd DYH and got a wrong check) DYH being framed is more likely than him being a miller?
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rG needs to get in here and post.
Alderan needs to provide something more subsantial.
trackdoor and hawkins are lurking hardcore.
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...what? gumshoe has not spotted a blue. what are you talking about. I see it as gumshoe is implying that the "substantial evidence" would be someoneELSE's DT check "exonerating" DYH; he never directly implicates sloosh as blue. My last Normal Mini (hosted by GMarshal interestingly enough), I was the Framer, rendering your speculation moot. Your discussion is idle, inaccurate role discussion. So was gumshoe's, but there is no reason for you to continue this line of thought.
Your words on mattchew are more interesting however.
something to note:
Steveling's response to Mattchew's case: Best thing since Klondike Bars.
My response: I like his font (aka I think there are at least 2 scum in his list.)
Mostly Everyone else: Mattchew is a scumbag, faker, liar.
Kind of a large disparity in that. You guys all really don't think the "scum don't interact with each other" thing is, at the very least, a tell that should be looked into?
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Besides, as sloosh said, it's pretty unlikely that there's another DT, and even if there was, it wouldn't convince me to get off DYH. Reliance on DT's is not the best thing, and for better or for worse, we're forced into a position where all we have are our reads to win the game.
Sleeping now; I expect to see a post from rG and TKHawkins when I get back.
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There are a lot of players here, you and I included, that just play that way. It's an interesting note in theory, and in hindsight it does prove to be quite strong, but I think the high false positive rate makes it an unreliable predictive tool.
I do agree with you that it's more likely than not that there's 1 or more scum in his list, just going off of the odds and regardless of whether he's right or wrong. With 15 players, the odds were ~76%, and with two innocents dead it's ~82%.
It's way past my bedtime
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On February 21 2012 17:38 EchelonTee wrote:
...what? gumshoe has not spotted a blue. what are you talking about. I see it as gumshoe is implying that the "substantial evidence" would be someoneELSE's DT check "exonerating" DYH; he never directly implicates sloosh as blue. My last Normal Mini (hosted by GMarshal interestingly enough), I was the Framer, rendering your speculation moot. Your discussion is idle, inaccurate role discussion. So was gumshoe's, but there is no reason for you to continue this line of thought.
Your words on mattchew are more interesting however.
something to note:
Steveling's response to Mattchew's case: Best thing since Klondike Bars.
My response: I like his font (aka I think there are at least 2 scum in his list.)
Mostly Everyone else: Mattchew is a scumbag, faker, liar.
Kind of a large disparity in that. You guys all really don't think the "scum don't interact with each other" thing is, at the very least, a tell that should be looked into?
I interpreted that gumshoe seems to think that sloosh did DT check dyh, since he mentioned framer. I agree that this is a dumb point, and I will drop it.
I do agree that there are probably scum in that list though. The "scum dont interact with each other" thing is a really weak point imo. It is all WIFOM as we dont know how scum act. People have different playstyles and I, as said, doubt that mafia are that unwilling to mention each other. Add that to the fact that his case is totally based off what I believe is a weak point and that he has contributed no other major reads whilst being so confident that he has found the entire scum team on day 2 due to some non-exsistent links screams scum to me.
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It is sad that it has come to this, but I need to die.
I mean for this to be my last post unless I see something I really want to respond to, I will still be watching the game.
slOosh - Remember: step back, take a breath, refocus, don't get timid.
ET - You are absolutely right that I have not followed the meta that I established in NMM3. I have had fun this game toying with lots of different ways of posting. From analytical defenses to emotional defenses, from general behavior analysis to long PBPAs, and trying to be a part of the action instead of holding myself apart and only presenting well thought out cases. It is this scattered approach which I think has made me ring false with so many of you. I used this game to experiment instead of sticking to my rather narrow established meta, and I think the town has suffered because of it. I apologize for that.
The Important Stuff
mattchew - I think you nailed it. You made the case that I wanted to make. I'm positive you hit 2 mafia out of 4, pretty sure you hit 3, and I wouldn't be surprised if you got all of them with that case. As for those of you who don't think that his case proves anything, I think you are wrong.
One of the hardest things for a scum team to do is to interact with each other in thread. They generally are not going to bus one another early for town cred, but they also don't want to be seen as supporting each other, lest the town catch on that they are connected. Similarly, incessant null reads on each other prove damning later if they start dying. The best way to avoid this is hard, which is to very intentionally plan interactions between members that seem legitimate. The worse way is much easier, and much more likely, especially with an inexperienced scum team, which is to avoid association with each other and/or stay very non-committal about their opinions on each other. Because it is difficult to avoid this behavior as scum, it makes it an extremely valid basis for analysis.
Midnight brings up a decent point which is that most commonly this kind of analysis is brought out after 1 or 2 scum have been killed, and you can use their filter to incriminate the rest of the scum based on who they don't refer to. And while that is true and that situation is ideal. I think that makes mattchew's case even more impressive. He found cohesive evidence against Midnight, TKHawkins, zelblade, and trackd00r, without the convenience of having a confirmed scum to start from.
I would like to add one observation of my own to your case against zelblade, matt.
On February 19 2012 23:27 zelblade wrote:
Im posting my reads in case I die tonight. I would have prefered posting this closer towards the end of night, but am posting it now as I have school tomorrow and need to go sleep now, and will not be online from around now to about 5.00 KST (+8).
Why did zelblade feel the need to point out his fear about dying last night? If he is a townie then he should realize that he was not active, trusted, or influential enough to be anywhere near the top of the mafia's hit list at this point. This leaves me with 2 possibilities. The first is that he is overcompensating for his knowledge that he won't be hit by posting his fear. The second is that he is blue and slipped up. I wouldn't even post this analysis except for the fact that I think the former is much more likely than the latter atm.
I need to die. Even if for some reason this last post convinced you of my innocence, still kill me. I will not have night2 and day3 plagued with discussion about how I wriggled out of a lynch today. Instead, the town needs to put me behind them, realize the truth of mattchew's case, and win this freaking game.
Good Luck
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EPT
