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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
I like the probabalistic way of looking at things. If your pool is "people who voted for BByte and aren't Blazinghand or Velinath" you know more about it than I do since you know your own alignment. However, entering into this argument you have walked into the territory of WIFOM and expected mafia scrutinized actions. That is where I think you make a mistak e
On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. xtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. So this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player.
There's a well-known mafia tactic known as "bussing" (from: to throw under the bus) in which two mafia players interact in an adversarial fashion if one of them is in danger, or just in general. For example, if BByte and EB with both mafia and the public opinion was moving to lynch BByte, EB might try to lead the charge, in order to prove himself innocent. However, for this to be believable they'd be aggressive towards each other beforehand so if either of them got in danger, they'd have a justification for bussing. "Oh, I suspected him all a long."
Mafia members, assuming they're not enormously incompetent (see: JB) will do their best to not appear to be working/voting together. You noted that it's probably a 2/1 split since they want to appear like normal voters. It stands to reason that they'd disagree and argue on other things, including each other's alignments, to appear like normal voters.
That being said, this takes nothing away from the probabilistic arguments. I just wouldn't go completely ruling out combinations like Grackaroni/ey215 or xsksc/xtfftc solely on the grounds that they got into an argument or disagreed on some issue.
Also, I'd like to hear your reasoning on the "Velinath is town" read, ideally something besides "Well he agrees with Blazinghand a lot and BH is town". Agreeing with me doesn't make you town. It's possible you've made this case and I just herped and missed it with all the JB interaction that's happened recently, so just quote yourself or link me if that's the case.
Is there a recorded final vote count for previous lynchings (day 1, day 2 etc?)
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
EBWOP: xsksc is now Starshard.
Also, Tunkeg and Starshard(aka xsksc) have not voted in this election. You guys have 7 hours left. Your votes are very important, and however you vote you must justify. Granted, assuming nobody changes their votes, you can't stop the JB lynch. But I, and many others, will judge you based on the reasoning behind your vote. So if you do something dumb like say make a post like this:
Herp derp voting JB cause he's gonna get lynched anyways #vote JB
or this:
Herp derp voting for random player cause JB's gonna get lynched anyways #vote JB
This kind of vote and justification is anti-town. So even though it's currently 7 JB, 1 Veli, 1 ey, cast your vote like whoever you vote is literally gonna get lynched, and justify your shit.
Just a friendly reminder.
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On December 09 2011 02:45 Blazinghand wrote:I like the probabalistic way of looking at things. If your pool is "people who voted for BByte and aren't Blazinghand or Velinath" you know more about it than I do since you know your own alignment. However, entering into this argument you have walked into the territory of WIFOM and expected mafia scrutinized actions. That is where I think you make a mistak e Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote:On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. xtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. So this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player. There's a well-known mafia tactic known as "bussing" (from: to throw under the bus) in which two mafia players interact in an adversarial fashion if one of them is in danger, or just in general. For example, if BByte and EB with both mafia and the public opinion was moving to lynch BByte, EB might try to lead the charge, in order to prove himself innocent. However, for this to be believable they'd be aggressive towards each other beforehand so if either of them got in danger, they'd have a justification for bussing. "Oh, I suspected him all a long." Mafia members, assuming they're not enormously incompetent (see: JB) will do their best to not appear to be working/voting together. You noted that it's probably a 2/1 split since they want to appear like normal voters. It stands to reason that they'd disagree and argue on other things, including each other's alignments, to appear like normal voters. That being said, this takes nothing away from the probabilistic arguments. I just wouldn't go completely ruling out combinations like Grackaroni/ey215 or xsksc/xtfftc solely on the grounds that they got into an argument or disagreed on some issue. Also, I'd like to hear your reasoning on the "Velinath is town" read, ideally something besides "Well he agrees with Blazinghand a lot and BH is town". Agreeing with me doesn't make you town. It's possible you've made this case and I just herped and missed it with all the JB interaction that's happened recently, so just quote yourself or link me if that's the case. Is there a recorded final vote count for previous lynchings (day 1, day 2 etc?)
Your point about bussing is fair. Even though a possibility I think it is not very likely that xtfftc is in bed with xsksc. The option of ey215/Grackaroni I see as abit more likely but not much.
For the Velinath is town question, I am not sold on the fact that he is town. Neither am I sold on you. I see you both as leaning town. I see Velinath leaning town because of the way he have been actively going after lurkers and encouraging them to post. He have also haven't been afraid voicing his opinion on cases. On the negative side he have some posts that are slightly suspicious, like this one:
On December 07 2011 11:33 Velinath wrote:
First off, I was roleblocked last night.
Secondly, yes, I agree with this lynch. Scummy posts after Night 1 and the analyses posted? No question. Hassy can be saved for tomorrow.
##Vote: jaybrundage
The only reason for this post is for the rest of us to see him as a town. And seeing no one else claimng to have been roleblocked for the night it is either true or the scum team decided that thye wouldn't roleblock and then have Velinath claim it to give him creds. I only see this as confusing though, as it cannot be proven that he was roleblocked or not.
This beeing said I only have him slightly leaning town (if you guys are lynching jaybrundage and it goes wrong I will reasses my read on both Velinath and you).
But compared to the four others I see both of you as more green. xsksc I see as red (as previously stated), Grackorini I find somewhat suspicious (how quick he jumped in on xsksc's side in my case, how quickly and easily he followed in on the BByte case and how he now is in on the jaybrundage case after stating that ey215 have been in on all bandwagons), ey215 got a case on him with some good points (he have been in on every bandwagon so far) and xtfft is also somewhat suspicious (his overall play, his take on the EB lynch, him beeing abit sheepish towards you and me).
If I am to rate them from most scummy to least scummy I'd say:
xsksc (I'll call him that until Starshard actually posts)>Grackorini>ey215>xtfftc
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On December 09 2011 02:50 Blazinghand wrote:EBWOP: xsksc is now Starshard. Also, Tunkeg and Starshard(aka xsksc) have not voted in this election. You guys have 7 hours left. Your votes are very important, and however you vote you must justify. Granted, assuming nobody changes their votes, you can't stop the JB lynch. But I, and many others, will judge you based on the reasoning behind your vote. So if you do something dumb like say make a post like this: or this: Show nested quote +Herp derp voting for random player cause JB's gonna get lynched anyways #vote JB This kind of vote and justification is anti-town. So even though it's currently 7 JB, 1 Veli, 1 ey, cast your vote like whoever you vote is literally gonna get lynched, and justify your shit. Just a friendly reminder.
I will vote, don't worry. I want to see if any of the cases on one of the four I mentioned in my post before is going to get pushed. But I don't see me voting for jaybrundage, I am not sold on his case. Only reason I will be voting for him is if it looks like it will be a close race between two candidates, and I read the other candidate as more town.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 09 2011 03:44 Tunkeg wrote:
xsksc (I'll call him that until Starshard actually posts)
Starshard has made two posts so far, despite not voting. Here's his filter:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291067&user=160133
On December 07 2011 22:19 Starshard wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 19:29 Adam4167 wrote:
Welcome to the party Starshard.
Finally someone around my timezone :> Thank you. Seems like the thread is pretty dead as we share different timezones with the others. Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 21:53 Tunkeg wrote:
Just read up on this during lunch, and while just reading through it really fast I have to say that the case you guys are building on jay, and the reasoning behind it is thin. 3 votes allready? Was it the the kill on EB that changed your mind?Many thought my case on xsksc was thin, but this is thinner, and it allready have 3 votes.
Yeah, I think that there really isn't much reasoning behind the call for Jay's lynch, despite that, we still have time and room for discussion to come up with a better list of scum reads, I have not read through the entire thread in detail so I shall reserve my vote for now, once I get back from party and start reading the thread in detail, then I would cast my vote. I hope that others will not jump on the bandwagon without providing any form of in depth analysis. Also, keep in mind that we have 2 inactive players at the moment, it would be great if they get replaced by active individuals or start posting so that we can have more opinions.
Filler; not unreasonable filler, though, since it's basically his first post. He's catching up on reading. He makes the weird statement that he thinks there isn't much reasoning behind the JB lynch while at the same time saying that he hasn't read the thread in detail.
On December 08 2011 11:34 Starshard wrote:Posting some of my own reads. Though it is not very detailed ATM, I hope that it will be enough to get some discussion rolling. Blazinghand + Show Spoiler +On December 04 2011 13:17 Blazinghand wrote:You say that like we all have to be in perfect agreement. You have the freedom to implement LALurkers conditionally in your own actions. Barring a good case on a Mafia member, though, I will lynch a lurker. ##Vote Electricblackhttp://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291067&user=235503ElectricBlack literally hasn't posted. ElectricBlack, come out and start talking, or I see no reason to change my vote. That being said, if you come by and start contributing, I see no reason to vote for you :D I'm mostly doing this to get you out here and helping. So hurry up.
BH brings the pressure to other players so as to generate contributions and discussion, giving himself a pro town image.On December 04 2011 13:35 Blazinghand wrote:In fact, given that most of those people are European, it's fairly likely they're asleep. I'm going to discuss our other semi-lurkers. ey215 has made a single post so far: Show nested quote +On December 04 2011 13:01 ey215 wrote:On December 04 2011 12:52 xsksc wrote:On December 04 2011 12:35 xtfftc wrote:On December 04 2011 12:06 xsksc wrote:
What do you guys think of policy lynches in general? Do you think they are a good idea, if so, why?
Personally I disagree with lynching a lurker JUST because they're lurking, in a game like this anyway. The risk of hitting a townie is way too high.
Lynch all liars is a great idea though. It discourages people from lying right from day 1, the only people with a good reason to lie are scum. Both sound great but in reality they don't work. Lynch All Liars.. People get lies and opinions mixed up all the time, and even when a lie is a lie, eventually you realise that there are different types of lies and lynching for some of them is a bit too much. Then comes the argument that if we lynch everyone caught in a lie, townies would stop lying, so we would not have to deal with all of this. But the reality is that you lynch a townie for lying, then you lose the game because of wasting a lynch in order to teach the liars a lesson, then you join another game and you realise that there's so many other players you have to teach that same lesson, and so on. If we start doing it in every single game, it might work after a while. But when you've invested a week in the game, you don't want to throw it away just because some townie attempted a stupid gamble. All you are focused on is lynching mafia. And townies tend to get lynched for lying all the time anyway, even without having the policy in place - simply becase when someone is caught lying, they are usually accused of being mafia. Agreeing upon whether someone is lukring or not is easier but simply lynching all lurkers is not optimal. What's important is that people realise that sometimes every active player is a townie. If your analysis leads you to the conclussion that the active players are townies, then you start lynching lurkers. That's the best we can do. I don't understand your part about lynch all liars. Think about it logically, if we say, "Lie and you're gonna get lynched" then no townie is going to lie, are they? It's not just to teach a lesson, scum benefit greatly from lies and deceit. I want lynch-all-liers in effect today. Also, on day 1 it's very easy for scum to post nonsense and get away with it, because day 1 can be such a mess, hell, sometimes the most active players are scum. Just because someone posts a lot doesn't make them town, lol. Look at the last newbie mini-game. Ciryandor was scum, and he posted more analysis than anyone, everyone assumed he was town and that was a big reason why town lost. Hi all!  Lynch all Liars is rough, sometimes you need to use your head and be able to tell the difference between a lie and a misunderstanding or misstatement. In games where people are posting a lot it's very easy for people to misspeak not realizing what exactly they've said in the past. I would think some common sense would help here. If it's an outright lie, by all means lynch away. If it's a misstatement and we've got a better case on someone it's better to let it slide. On the lurker bit, I do think there's a time and place for lynching. If we don't have a case on someone it's better to lynch a lurker than someone active. If they're lurking then they're not contributing or giving us something to go on. Of course, if we've got a good case on someone it's better to lynch them. Looking forward to this. He basically says... absolutely nothing. He indicates that we need to use common sense about lies, and that we should lynch scum before lurkers if possible. That's very accurate, ey215, but it's clever how you've managed to say nothing of any import, and this is your sole post, AND you're awake (american). No substance, all fluff. Noob or Mafia? too early to tell. Show nested quote +On December 04 2011 13:11 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Hey guys!
Great to be joining. I think that when we vote we should make sure people did not mispeak.
I think that we all need to figure out what we want to do as a group.
What do you think? Another guy with literally 1 post that says nothing. obvious we shouldn't lynch people for misspeaking. And... of COURSE we need to figure out what to do as a group. We VOTE on the lynch. What do I think? I think you're either absurdly unhelpful or a mafioso doing a bad job of blending in. You're the same as the people who haven't posted yet, because YOU HAVEN'T POSTED ANYTHING YET.
In this post, he goes after the 1post lurkers and exert pressure on the lurkers, once the lurkers start contributing, he unvote them and goes after the other lurkers.To me, BH feels like a townie, he is being very aggressive against lurkers to start getting content out of them. Without his active contribution during, we might not have enough content to form our reads, he also provides reasonable analysis so I would not consider him a mafia now. Alignment : Town Velinath + Show Spoiler +On December 04 2011 15:20 Velinath wrote:This is my first game as well (believe it or not), and I'm still contributing (at least, I think so). I feel like we could stand to hear more from you. As jaybrundage said, try to give some opinions. At the moment you're the best scumread I have, and given that, I'd like to hear what you have to say more than what I've heard so far. Show nested quote +On December 04 2011 15:18 ey215 wrote:
However, we need to be careful about what we define lurking as. If it's just they never post, that's easy. If it's they post, but only a couple lines then that's more of an decision to be made through analysis. I'd rather see a few posts a day that are failry well thought out and longer than a bunch of one liners that don't mean anything. I agree, and I think the town will be able to see that especially as we start building cases. Filtering and seeing one-liners is something that raises a red flag in my eyes. He is trying to actively get other newbies to start contributing, this action benefits the town as we would be able to get more content for our reads. He also brings out a good point on the potential mafia lurkers and exert pressure on them so that they would not be able to get away with lurking and posting useless content.
On December 05 2011 23:50 Velinath wrote:Good morning. Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 20:34 ElectricBlack wrote:On December 05 2011 20:24 xsksc wrote:
What's interesting? I can't make a big post about you right now cause I'm playing SC2, I'm posting quickly inbetween games. I'll do it when I'm finished. Velinath agreed with BH's reasoning that I must be scum because I decided not to vote, He already has shown himself to be willing to be critical of the situation, so I'm not worried about him. Once he realizes my choice of not voting was actually optimal in the situation (as explained when I first started responding to the cases built while I slept), I think he will find something more productive to do. Hi! I never said you were scum. I said you were playing anti-town. There's a key difference - check out ... oh, shoot, I can't remember if it was Kenpachi or Coagulation in 46. One (or both) of them was lurking extremely hardcore, promised analysis "tomorrow" that never got there, posted a few one-liners here and there - and then they flipped town. The players in 46 didn't necessarily assume that they were scum - just not playing to the best interests of the town. I thought the same thing about you here. Now, that said, both the reasoning you posted for why you didn't post and your case on Hassy are quite good. I think if you had just said "Hey, it's 1 am here, I'll post some thougts in the morning" I think that would have been fine - time zones are things we can understand. What's happened has happened, though. ##UnvoteNow, some questions. Tunkeg posted some good content early, and now he's completely disappeared. I'd like to hear more from him, because right now he's gone from being a helpful member to lurking pretty hard for a while now. BByte still hasn't checked in despite both myself and, later, xtfftc mentioning him. I want to hear from him - he's provided minimal content including a very half-assed case on me and some sketchy analysis on ey215. This could just be lazy play but it's starting to worry me, since after voting me (posts doing so comprise almost half of his filter!) he's disappeared. I would be happy to see him lynched, especially since the two people I previously had worries about content generation have stepped up in a big way and helped out. ##Vote: BByteAdam and EB have both stepped up and provided some good analysis (and I was really impressed by EB's case. I'm going to take a closer look at Hassybaby. Calling someone "Serejai" after watching 47, even if not voting them, reeks of OMGUS as I said earlier in the thread, and is an overreaction to light pressure - plus, the bandwagoning is, as noted here in addition to your case, a matter for some concern. Headed to class but I should be able to keep an eye on the thread. He shares the details of an old game and what we could learn from it. He is actively going after anti-town and lurkers to get them to contribute and create a better town atmosphere, although he has some filler post, i feel that he is pro town.Alignment : Town jaybrundage + Show Spoiler +Now lets move on to the poor guy jay who is getting targeted. On December 07 2011 13:10 jaybrundage wrote:
Lol BH you don't get it. I was on page 26 the entire time typing my response.
While the New day post was on page 30 is it really that hard to understand.
I posted what i had to say about your post for me and then looked over the new posts.
If you dont believe me great i said i cant prove it. You act like this was a scum slip. When i just hadn't seen the day post.
Regardless i want to get more input from people before i start typing a case. Adam is still might have my vote but lets see what new information the new day brings It seems like some of the aggression came from jay not keeping up with the new day post. He could lying about it but it might also be true. However , his next post came into my mind + Show Spoiler +On December 08 2011 00:00 jaybrundage wrote:Well so after rereading alot. And going through lots of filters. I have my thoughts on who i think is mafia. Try to have a open mind tho. So at the start of the game BH has been a leading factor for this game. Because of this and his very aggressive playstyle people began to follow him. He the closest you can come to confirmed townie. And because of this people began sheeping to him. One of these people almost to a dot has been Veli. The first person that noticed this trend was Adam. Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 01:38 Adam4167 wrote:
My thoughts on Blazinghands aggression so far is that I feel he is trying to generate discussion. However, I question whether he is trying too hard to establish himself as a townie by his badgering. This, coupled with his apparent buddy-buddy relationship with Velinath has me keeping a close eye on both of them as I find it strange that they are apparently “BFF’s” after only 12 hours of play. So to directly answer your question, Tunkeg, I find his behaviour suspicious and erring on the side of Anti-town. 5 separate votes in 12 hours is akin to spam and is just leading the town around in circles, rather than focusing on any one target.
You’ve caught my attention Blazinghand, don’t slip =).
Who then got voted for by BH first shortly followed by Veli. I did participate on the vote with adam however i gave my own reasoning. Instead of just hoping on the bandwagon. Veli has had filler posts the entire game. following BH lead almost the entire game hear are some examples. Show nested quote +On December 04 2011 13:24 Velinath wrote:
EBWOP because you guys post too fast:
Blazinghand, I completely agree with your idea here. If we lack a case on a poster in the thread, lurkers are, regardless of alignment, anti-town, and they should be lynched in preference to a no-lynch.
Given that,
##Vote: Bbite
Let's hear from another nonposter. Show nested quote +On December 04 2011 14:34 Velinath wrote:
Blazinghand, that's a good point. It looks like all of the people who have not posted are probably doing so because of time zones.
As such, I'm dropping my vote (assuming I'm formatting properly!) and will put it back on if one of our four "lurkers" hasn't posted in the next 12-16 hours.
##Unvote: BByte Show nested quote +On December 04 2011 14:42 Velinath wrote:On December 04 2011 14:20 Blazinghand wrote:I want to hear what you have to say. Don't flop around like you did in your first post. Be a man. Do the right thing. On December 04 2011 14:36 BroodKingEXE wrote:
Hey Blazinghand sorry if I came around to be a little shady.
I was just trying to feed into the conversation, about the voting. How do we want to plan the lynching with the time zone difference? I feel like this will be a major roadblock as it will be 12 AM for our friends in the UK.
As for my earlier comment I just wanted to say hi. Did not mean to get off on the wrong foot Hi,
this also feels noncontributive. I feel like what Blazinghand was looking for was more of an opinion on one of the matters we've been discussing in the thread. If you wouldn't mind, I'd like to hear what you have to say about the Lynch All Lurkers policy discussed a couple of pages back. Adding questions but no answers isn't really posting content, at least not in my eyes. Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 03:29 Velinath wrote:Whee, time to copy in my reads. Keeping a spreadsheet is going to be quite helpful, I think. Blazinghand: Feels very Townie to me. Posting reasonable content and post analysis already. Willing to take actions on his stances. Softclaimed Vanilla Townie http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291067¤tpage=8#152 Bringing lurkers out, which can ONLY help town. I approve. Call it 90% town. Also, his discussion with ey215 looked good, and convinced me further of his townieness. Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 08:53 Velinath wrote:
On Adam4167:
So far, two posts. I can see why everyone's suspicious of him - he made a mistake in attacking the most vocal (and, in some people's minds, most pro-town) player. That said, I feel like it could be just defensiveness to BH's style. I'll have to wait for more posts, but for now he's just made my watchlist.
Alot of Veli's post where filler and have been following BH in almost everycase. The other big factor to my case is the mislynch of Bbyte. I do agree that he was lurking a good bit. However what was one of is contribitions. Well lets look back. Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 09:20 BByte wrote:My strongest scum read so far is Velinath. He has been active (very much so actually), but what has he contributed? Some policy discussion, a bit of finger pointing (mostly to spark activity), some fluff. Mostly he has been following other people's ideas, not making his own calls. All of this is something scum could easily do with very little risk.Then there are a couple of posts of light analysis. His "reads post" sums it up best: + Show Spoiler +On December 05 2011 03:29 Velinath wrote:Whee, time to copy in my reads. Keeping a spreadsheet is going to be quite helpful, I think. Blazinghand: Feels very Townie to me. Posting reasonable content and post analysis already. Willing to take actions on his stances. Softclaimed Vanilla Townie http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291067¤tpage=8#152 Bringing lurkers out, which can ONLY help town. I approve. Call it 90% town. Also, his discussion with ey215 looked good, and convinced me further of his townieness. BroodKingEXE: Empty post. Worries me.Feels scummy but could be a noob. Amend: Six posts that don't sit right with me, but again, could be new player. xkskc: Leaning town for now. Started our policy discussion. Discussion is good. While he disagrees with BH's methods, I clearly feel like he's playing a townie game right now. Different methodolgy, same goal. To note, he pointed out that there may be mafia in the group leadership., which should be something to keep in mind. Question is whether it's sowing suspicion or genuine pro-town, and I haven't figured that out yet. xtfftc: Null read. He argued against LAL and LALurkers, and I don't wanna go with that. Let's look again once he posts again. (Amend: Looked through his filter to update this post, and I really liked his post here. Still a null read, but this feels positive to me.) ey215: Pointed out some good things. He sees Blazinghand's methods as creating tension within the town, and that's fine - he's entitled to opinion. Like xkskc, he disagrees with methods but seems to be working towards the same goal. Their discussion, while heated, really brought out to me that they both seem very town-aligned, and willing to take positions and defend them. EB: Makes good points. At this point I'm leaning town, simply because he's pro-discussion this early. That said I'd love to see more posts here. Tunkeg: Posted his reads, and is encouraging discussion. I think this is a good thing, and might peg him as one of the influential voices in the town soon. Largely a null read, but I'm starting to lean town. BByte: I'm not totally impressed yet. One post about breadcrumbs (which is more about the game in general than a content post) and one post about a couple of the players. That post was good, and I agree that we shouldn't be intimidated by one person, but I'd like to see more. jaybrundage: Neutral for now, but a lack of content disturbs me. We've still got like 30 hours though. Adam4167: Two posts, neither of which hugely impress me. I liked how he went through and stated a clear opinion on BH's play. While I disagree with his opinion, I think that the way he put things is pro-town in that post. I'd love to see more content here, but so far looks pretty good. Hassybaby: Disagrees with early targets, and I can see why. I think he is overly defensive towards Tunkeg - not an OMGUS vote, but definitely that kind of idea. Not sure what to think, but this early just a null read. Grackaroni: Posted reads, but before that there's a bunch of policy posts. Not that I haven't made a ton of policy posts too, but I'll wait for more content. Null read. Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 09:18 BByte wrote:Okay, back home and (re-)reading the thread. Boy did I pick up a bad day to be AFK. First note: There's a reason a day lasts 48 hours. The first vote on me was made 9 hours ago, roughly 10 hours before the lynch deadline. Second note: I stand by my earlier statement: There are no real lurkers in this game. Instead of voting based on activity, I'd prefer a vote based on the actual content of the posts. For the people who are voting me: In case there are any specific questions that you'd like for me to answer, please post them and I'll give what answers I can. Whether my answers will be enough to convince you to vote someone else is up to you. On December 06 2011 00:31 Velinath wrote:Alright, that's fair Grack - but let's look at BByte. He posts once a few times 17 hours ago, comes back 8 hours ago to post one thing. He states in the thread that he'd post thoughts if needed, but he hasn't done that - a couple sentences here or there. I did however state that I'd be extremely busy with work today. It's only 9 hours since the first vote on me. That's not really enough time to expect someone to be able to answer. On December 06 2011 03:35 Blazinghand wrote:
As you can see, he's got a vote on velinath, and hasn't made a serious argument. Velinath's arguments on his scumlist might have been vague, but since then, velinath has made a liberal outpouring of posts and BByte remains silent. I don't know who's mafia, but I know we need more commitment than that out of our townies, and BByte's soft case and small vote count make it seem like he's hiding something. How exactly is my vote suspicious? I posted my read (which was against pretty much everyone else, is that mafia behavior?) and I perhaps didn't articulate my case as well as I should have, but what am I hiding? For my activity see above and my previous posts. I also find weird from a quick skim through the posts since the last I've read the thread that no one has actually even commented on the actual content of my accusation on Velinath. What do people think about his posting, especially up to the point I accused him? Was / am I sure he's scum? No, but at least my vote was based on a read instead of a non-read. The post I made about the case was perhaps "half-assed" in hindsight. I did spend a lot of time reading and analyzing, but not enough time in forming my case to a coherent post. Also I didn't use nearly enough quotes. And he gets tagged team by the duo of Veli and BH. He tries to post to defend himself. Tries to show that what he did wasn't scummy. He posted his reads more then some of the people in this thread. After he knows that he is gonna get lynched he posts this. Show nested quote +On December 06 2011 09:59 BByte wrote:
Okay, so it seems I'm about to be lynched. Unfortunately I was pretty much MIA today, and wasn't able to respond to the case (or lack thereof) made against me.
I've tried to post honestly and openly. What I've said so far I still think is pro-town. Apart from that, I'd like the town to note two additional people:
Blazinghand: He has been very active and vocal so far. That paints him as town. However, he could have made all the posts nearly as easily if he were scum. To the townies: Please hold him up to the high standard he has presented so far. He still might be scum, just well hidden in plain sight. He was also the second guy to vote for my lynch.
xtfftc: Some scum vibes off him, not enough time to post an actual case. He posted a case on Veli and was soon voted for by BH and ofc Veli followed like he always does. The reason that adam got off the hook was because he did not continue pursuing BH and Veli. Also remember the sharade that happened with EB. He was going to post a reason why hassybaby was a lynch candadite and did not want to put his vote in because he did not have time to write it up ( he did not say this at the time) But BH could not stand someone stand up to him. He went out and called him anti town and wanted everyone to vote him. This is one part Show nested quote +On December 05 2011 11:01 Blazinghand wrote:On December 05 2011 10:58 ElectricBlack wrote:On December 05 2011 10:50 Blazinghand wrote:On December 05 2011 10:47 Velinath wrote:On December 05 2011 10:43 Blazinghand wrote:On December 05 2011 10:42 Blazinghand wrote:On December 05 2011 10:40 ElectricBlack wrote:
I'd be much more comfortable lynching Hassybaby than any of the current candidates. I need to go to sleep now (it's well past midnight over here), I'll give details as for why this is in the morning. No. Vote. Don't wait, don't delay-- it's anti-town to do so. Cast your vote, even if you don't have time to explain. Actually, this delay is more anti-town than Adam's amazing inactivity. It's anti-worthful, rather than just worthless. ##Vote ElectricBlackVote or die. I disagree with this. He's made a stance, and he'll post information when he has time. I'm okay with that. If he doesn't post his reasoning, then I'll be concerned, but for now I'm willing to wait for that. My point is that he has said who he'd be comfortable voting for. He said he's comfortable voting for Hassybaby, but he's obviously not-- he didn't take the 2-3 seconds to type in his vote. He's leading us by the nose. He's hiding behind the excuse of sleep to avoid an explanation, which I might buy. But to avoid slapping down a simple vote? No, this isn't normal. this is anti-town and I will not stand for it. Think about it-- if he's town, his actions don't make sense at all. Why not slap down the vote? If he's mafia his actions make perfect sense. Now I'm not gonna vote him until the morning just to spite you. I will vote in my own time when I can explain in detail why and how I came to the conclusion. In addition I still have a few people to read up on and form an opinion on, so I might not even end up voting Hassybaby when it comes to it. On December 05 2011 10:59 ElectricBlack wrote:
No.
Good night. Ladies and gentlemen, case closed. EB's just trying to spite me? Trying to spite THE TOWN? We need him out. He's worse than a lurker. Look how it went for trying to spite BH to spiting the town. EB was not spiting the town he was doing it because BH was being pushy and a bully and he would not stand for it. So after Bbyte mislynch he posts this little gem. Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 09:33 Blazinghand wrote:
FYI it's also everyone's fault the lynch went the wrong way, since we all failed to capture a majority. I'm just saying that if you have a solid read, you have a BIG responsibility to convince the rest of us. ESPECIALLY if you're right.
Also, most towns mislynch on the first day. He tries to take all of the blame off himself. He states its everyones fault the lynch went wrong today AND I QUOTE since WE all failed to capture a majority He REFUSES to take responsibility for HIS mislynch. He even has the audacity to blame the town. and then ends it with most towns mislynch first day. He tries to throw a pitiful bandaid on it And then when i call him out on it. Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 09:49 jaybrundage wrote:On December 07 2011 09:33 Blazinghand wrote:
FYI it's also everyone's fault the lynch went the wrong way, since we all failed to capture a majority. I'm just saying that if you have a solid read, you have a BIG responsibility to convince the rest of us. ESPECIALLY if you're right.
Also, most towns mislynch on the first day. Im going to write my post up on what i think went on this night. Sorry for being a bit inactive. I saw BH post about no posting and then was really busy so i didnt get around till now. But BH honestly i find this statement really suspicious. But BH you Succeded to capture the majority. You made the case against Bbyte and your case garnered the majority. It almost seems like your trying to take the chunk of responsibility off your back. I put down what i thought about adam. And said why i didnt like BBytes case. Im going back to make my posts about what else happened tonight. As well as response to your nice post about me. Thank you for that btw :D He comes back at me with this Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 10:13 Blazinghand wrote:On December 07 2011 09:49 jaybrundage wrote:On December 07 2011 09:33 Blazinghand wrote:
FYI it's also everyone's fault the lynch went the wrong way, since we all failed to capture a majority. I'm just saying that if you have a solid read, you have a BIG responsibility to convince the rest of us. ESPECIALLY if you're right.
Also, most towns mislynch on the first day. Im going to write my post up on what i think went on this night. Sorry for being a bit inactive. I saw BH post about no posting and then was really busy so i didnt get around till now. But BH honestly i find this statement really suspicious. But BH you Succeded to capture the majority. You made the case against Bbyte and your case garnered the majority. It almost seems like your trying to take the chunk of responsibility off your back. I put down what i thought about adam. And said why i didnt like BBytes case. Im going back to make my posts about what else happened tonight. As well as response to your nice post about me. Thank you for that btw :D what the dicks is this
scum scum scum Thats the most cohherent response he has? Really? What the dicks is this Wow. Also as a side note. After BH posts his case on me ofc Veli follows like he always does. With no real content of his own. The funniest part is that he even states im not his strongest scum read. But he follows BH like he always does. Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 12:37 Velinath wrote:
Hi Blazing. My best scumread is still Hassybaby right now, as per my comment from the middle of Day 1 (after EB posted that he would post a case the next morning) and later, EB's case that went through the points I made as well as additional points. That said, I'm reluctant to push him as a lynch target until he gets replaced and his replacement shows up - or he comes back from AFK, one of the two. This is my case I would suggest everyone go back and reread with this is mind and look at how Bbyte was Mislynched. Thank you for your time I would be open to vote for either as i think there both scum Veli or BH For now im voting for Veli because thats who BByte wanted to lynch and he ended up getting mislynched. ##Vote Velinath Alignment : Null Thats it for now, I have to go grab some sleep. As a replacement I find it hard to catch up but I will still try to contribute. I'm new so I hope I did ok. Edit: Gl for your finals!
Posts town reads for me and Vel, and a null read for JB, asking for more information.
He edits his post to wish me good luck and gets warned for it, then rides off into the sunset, never to be seen again. So far he hasn't really committed on anything or said much of value. Actually, come to think of it, he's lurking. If I didn't have a scumread on JB I'd be going after him. However, lynching scum > lynching lurkers.
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On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote.
Nice to see that at least one person is interested in looking at EY* but I'm really disappointed that everyone else chose to ignore it. You don't have to agree with my case but we have to catch three mafia, not one. We have a lead on BKE if Jay flips mafia but we need to keep the conversation going. We don't know if Jay is going to flip town or mafia, only mafia does. If it turns out that he's just a dumb townie and considering that everyone tends to keep quiet during the night, we'll be left with pretty much nothing at a LYLO situation when it comes to scum hunting on Day 3 (unless we get lucky with the blues' night actions). Don't rely on the few active players to win the game.
* I don't count Bluesomething because he looks like he's a newbie townie who strugling to form his own opinions. I expect a lot more of him tomorrow though; he should be able to post more analysis after being in the game for 48 hours.
On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote:Probability lynchI think probability should be discussed more before going into a day 2 lynch. Some of you may call this WIFOM and just ignore it, and probably it is somewhat WIFOM, because it involves alot of speculating. The first thing I will speculate about is number of scum involved in the lynch on BByte. As I've mentioned before I belive the probability that 2 scums joined in on the lynch is the biggest: Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 07:24 Tunkeg wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 06:30 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 05:57 Tunkeg wrote:On December 07 2011 04:15 Velinath wrote:On December 07 2011 04:09 Blazinghand wrote:On December 07 2011 04:06 xtfftc wrote:On December 07 2011 03:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Tonight the mafia may have already made their decision, but if we can get the same info without exposing ourselves more by delaying an analysis post another hour, is that really a bad idea? One thought would be that we need as much information as possible, but I'm not saying we shouldn't have the info, just that a minor delay is good. Five hours is what we're talking about here. Yes, because it's not just about your own analysis. It's about your analysis and everyone else reacting to (or ignoring) it. An isolated read isn't as good as being able to analyse people's responces. Hm. That's true, the extra 24 hours may make the difference. On the other hand, it's worth noting that at the beginning of the day, we do receive another piece of information: assuming that either (a) there is no doctor or (b) the doctor guesses wrong, one of us dies and is a confirmed townie or blue. A dead confirmed townie or blue, but a confirmed townie or blue no less. This information might be unhelpful but it could also play a big role in terms of analysis. Going off your assumption that someone will end up dying tonight, why should we hold off on posting analysis? The more conversation that we can have before night ends, the more that the dead townie will be able to contribute before they die. Given this, I feel that we stand to gain more by posting analysis earlier so that we can discuss it with all of the town voices. For the sake of conversation what are you thoughts on the BByte lynch yesterday. You were the first one voting for him, what do you think of the rest of us that ending up voting for him. Any votes you find more suspicious than others? Hi! As far as where I stand on the BByte lynch, despite the flip I think it was the best option we had. As a town I felt that we were somewhat divided between a couple of scumreads from different people, and, given that, it would be too easy for scum to swing a lynch one way or another in that situation. BByte, as a policy lynch, was a good call - lurking is and will always be anti-town play. I wish he would have gotten back earlier to defend himself and avert the lynch, but as it stands it was the right call. I must admit I didn't expect people to jump over and start voting BByte as easily as they did. A couple people even said that they had decent scumreads but "because nobody's going to vote for them, I'll just vote for BByte". This is a little bit of a matter for concern. I don't know whether it's just town complacency or actual suspicious behaviour, but either way people need to step up and push their reads. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2011 04:00 xsksc wrote:
Okay, I'll go with your judgement on this one. He seems like a decent lynch I guess, I'd prefer Tunkeg but that doesn't look like it's happening today.
##vote: BByte
Going to sleep now, will be back and active early tomorow morning. This one stood out to me - "it's not my best lynch choice, but it's not a bad one - and I can be more sure that my vote will help cement a lynch". On December 06 2011 05:13 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm willing to vote for BByte because he has not contributed to the game so far and his lynch target was stupid.
HassyBaby could still be a good lynch for today. Similar thing here. "This guy's a good lynch. Here's another option, but hey, I can actually get BByte lynched". On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote:
I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
Similar to the last couple. What it came down to for a lot of people was "who can I vote for that will be a safe bet to avoid last-minute surprise vote switches?". BByte was a safe lynch. Not the best, perhaps, but safe. His behaviour was scummy, but we could have done some more analysis on other people and maybe gotten a better candidate. EB's case on Hassybaby springs to mind as a pretty impressive case, I think if we had had the time to discuss that he would have maybe made a better lynch target. Now that we have another day ahead of us, we need to start looking less at policy lynching and more at scum reads. While there was a reasonable amount of scumhunting yesterday, we were unable to act on those reads. After filtering the voters on BByte, I can't really see anything suspicious. Every vote was based off of Lynch All Lurkers, meaning it's really hard to distinguish between which voters were motivated by policy and which were scum. Despite my voting first, I really feel like BH led the bandwagon here, and that should merit some scrutiny. As has been said in the last two pages, players thinking for themselves is a good thing. Forming your own reads will always be better than going off of someone else. That said, I find one thing suspicious. xkskc's post stood out to me as just jumping on a bandwagon and really helping to get it rolling. At the time, BH had just gotten things started. An informed mafia would be able to switch votes after seeing as visible a bandwagon as BH got rolling, and allay suspicion. "Yeah, I would prefer we lynch X, but that's not happening so I'll just go along with Y". Seems weird to me, but like anything in this game we could WIFOM it to death. Tomorrow, I think it might be a good move to focus on Hassybaby more. EB posted an interesting case yesterday, and I think I posted some stuff slightly before that. One of the big points there is his complete sheep vote on BKEXE based solely on my reasoning, and then disappearing from the thread. Something to look into. While I don't want to policy lynch him for lurking, his play so far does seem scummy. Thank you for answering. I agree with your thoughts here. It is pretty hard to say anything about which votes are more suspicious. But if I am allowed to speculate I would think at least 1 scum was in on the lynch of BByte, and more likely 2 scums to secure it. 0 and 3 would be very unlikely IMO. 0 is unlikely because I think scum wanted to secure the lynch of a townie. 3 unlikely because then they would put all their eggs in one basket (if all 3 jumped in early), and a change in lynchtarget would mean that at least 2 of them would have to switch to secure themselves (that would cause suspicion). If not all 3 jumped in early it would be no point in jumping in late for a third scum unless the vote weren't secured (for a secound scum, yeah, for a third no). So my view on the lynch yesterday is that there is likely to be two scums among the 7 who voted for BByte: Velinath, Blazinghand, xsksc, Grackorini, ey215, xtfftc and Tunkeg. And one among the rest. This is all speculations though, and probably not very usefull. As I belive BH and Velinath is the most green out of these (as of now) I will leave them out. And I will also leave myself out. This leads me to believe that there is 2 scum out of xsksc, gracken, ey215 and xtfftc. Seeing that ey215 and xtfftc is attacking eachother, and the way they are attacking eachother I don't see it as likely that they both are scum. Seeing that Grackorini is somewhat joining in on xtfftc's analyses: Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. xtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. So this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player.
I like parts of this post - especially the xsksc+EY bit, although I would have to seriously consider one of them being town if Jay and BKE are both red - but focusing exclussively on voting patterns is dangerous. Townies vote for various reasons, so if you're going to analyse the vote, you have to look at all the factors surrounding the decision. Even if the whole mafia team was on the Bbyte lynch (which is very much possible, although I wouldn't count on it), there's some townies on it as well. You don't take into consideration the reasons why those you have townie reads of voted for him, yet you use the vote on its own as a factor when narrowing your mafia list. Why is it perfectly fine for someone you consider to be town to vote for Bbyte, yet someone you are suspicious of is worth lynching for doing the very same thing?
Also, analysing the probabilities while excluding your own town reads and then pushing a lynch depending on the results doesn't help the rest of us.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 09 2011 03:52 Tunkeg wrote:Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:50 Blazinghand wrote:EBWOP: xsksc is now Starshard. Also, Tunkeg and Starshard(aka xsksc) have not voted in this election. You guys have 7 hours left. Your votes are very important, and however you vote you must justify. Granted, assuming nobody changes their votes, you can't stop the JB lynch. But I, and many others, will judge you based on the reasoning behind your vote. So if you do something dumb like say make a post like this: Herp derp voting JB cause he's gonna get lynched anyways #vote JB or this: Herp derp voting for random player cause JB's gonna get lynched anyways #vote JB This kind of vote and justification is anti-town. So even though it's currently 7 JB, 1 Veli, 1 ey, cast your vote like whoever you vote is literally gonna get lynched, and justify your shit. Just a friendly reminder. I will vote, don't worry. I want to see if any of the cases on one of the four I mentioned in my post before is going to get pushed. But I don't see me voting for jaybrundage, I am not sold on his case. Only reason I will be voting for him is if it looks like it will be a close race between two candidates, and I read the other candidate as more town.
Oh that's fine. I don't care how you vote (I mean, I do, I want you to vote JB, but in that paragraph I'm talking in general), I'm just hoping that you justify your vote. Anyone who has voted without sufficiently justifying it (velinath?) will face scrutiny from me tonight.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 09 2011 03:53 xtfftc wrote:
I like parts of this post - especially the xsksc+EY bit, although I would have to seriously consider one of them being town if Jay and BKE are both red - but focusing exclussively on voting patterns is dangerous.
Just as a note, if both JB and BKEXE are red, it's literally impossible for both xsksc and EY to be red, since there are 3 mafia in this game. I think you'd have to literally admit that one of the two of them is town if both JB and BKEXE are red. A nitpick! Yes! A nitpick but an important one since if we're going to think about who's where, etc, you gotta remember there are three mafia.
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Okay, I have limited time, so tell me who you want to me to have a more in-depth look at tonight (or you can have shorter analyses of two/three players, etc.). I consider Grackaroni to be town and I'm less and less suspicious of Veli. My view on the two of you (BH and Tunkeg) hasn't changed - I think you're both town (remind me to go over trusting players you consider to be town even if they're not confirmed if you want to hear why I'm doing it). I'm willing to give Starshard a break even though I would have lynched xsksc, and I'm expecting him to step up and contribute more during Day 3, just like Bluelightz. If Jay flips town, I'd say that EY, xsksc and Adam are the mafia team. If Jay flips red, I think that his partners are BKE and EY/xsk.
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On December 09 2011 03:53 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. Nice to see that at least one person is interested in looking at EY* but I'm really disappointed that everyone else chose to ignore it. You don't have to agree with my case but we have to catch three mafia, not one. We have a lead on BKE if Jay flips mafia but we need to keep the conversation going. We don't know if Jay is going to flip town or mafia, only mafia does. If it turns out that he's just a dumb townie and considering that everyone tends to keep quiet during the night, we'll be left with pretty much nothing at a LYLO situation when it comes to scum hunting on Day 3 (unless we get lucky with the blues' night actions). Don't rely on the few active players to win the game. * I don't count Bluesomething because he looks like he's a newbie townie who strugling to form his own opinions. I expect a lot more of him tomorrow though; he should be able to post more analysis after being in the game for 48 hours. Show nested quote +On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote:Probability lynchI think probability should be discussed more before going into a day 2 lynch. Some of you may call this WIFOM and just ignore it, and probably it is somewhat WIFOM, because it involves alot of speculating. The first thing I will speculate about is number of scum involved in the lynch on BByte. As I've mentioned before I belive the probability that 2 scums joined in on the lynch is the biggest: On December 07 2011 07:24 Tunkeg wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On December 07 2011 06:30 Velinath wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 05:57 Tunkeg wrote:On December 07 2011 04:15 Velinath wrote:On December 07 2011 04:09 Blazinghand wrote:On December 07 2011 04:06 xtfftc wrote:On December 07 2011 03:55 Blazinghand wrote:
Tonight the mafia may have already made their decision, but if we can get the same info without exposing ourselves more by delaying an analysis post another hour, is that really a bad idea? One thought would be that we need as much information as possible, but I'm not saying we shouldn't have the info, just that a minor delay is good. Five hours is what we're talking about here. Yes, because it's not just about your own analysis. It's about your analysis and everyone else reacting to (or ignoring) it. An isolated read isn't as good as being able to analyse people's responces. Hm. That's true, the extra 24 hours may make the difference. On the other hand, it's worth noting that at the beginning of the day, we do receive another piece of information: assuming that either (a) there is no doctor or (b) the doctor guesses wrong, one of us dies and is a confirmed townie or blue. A dead confirmed townie or blue, but a confirmed townie or blue no less. This information might be unhelpful but it could also play a big role in terms of analysis. Going off your assumption that someone will end up dying tonight, why should we hold off on posting analysis? The more conversation that we can have before night ends, the more that the dead townie will be able to contribute before they die. Given this, I feel that we stand to gain more by posting analysis earlier so that we can discuss it with all of the town voices. For the sake of conversation what are you thoughts on the BByte lynch yesterday. You were the first one voting for him, what do you think of the rest of us that ending up voting for him. Any votes you find more suspicious than others? Hi! As far as where I stand on the BByte lynch, despite the flip I think it was the best option we had. As a town I felt that we were somewhat divided between a couple of scumreads from different people, and, given that, it would be too easy for scum to swing a lynch one way or another in that situation. BByte, as a policy lynch, was a good call - lurking is and will always be anti-town play. I wish he would have gotten back earlier to defend himself and avert the lynch, but as it stands it was the right call. I must admit I didn't expect people to jump over and start voting BByte as easily as they did. A couple people even said that they had decent scumreads but "because nobody's going to vote for them, I'll just vote for BByte". This is a little bit of a matter for concern. I don't know whether it's just town complacency or actual suspicious behaviour, but either way people need to step up and push their reads. + Show Spoiler +On December 06 2011 04:00 xsksc wrote:
Okay, I'll go with your judgement on this one. He seems like a decent lynch I guess, I'd prefer Tunkeg but that doesn't look like it's happening today.
##vote: BByte
Going to sleep now, will be back and active early tomorow morning. This one stood out to me - "it's not my best lynch choice, but it's not a bad one - and I can be more sure that my vote will help cement a lynch". On December 06 2011 05:13 Grackaroni wrote:
I'm willing to vote for BByte because he has not contributed to the game so far and his lynch target was stupid.
HassyBaby could still be a good lynch for today. Similar thing here. "This guy's a good lynch. Here's another option, but hey, I can actually get BByte lynched". On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote:
I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise.
##Unvote: xsksc
##Vote: BByte
Similar to the last couple. What it came down to for a lot of people was "who can I vote for that will be a safe bet to avoid last-minute surprise vote switches?". BByte was a safe lynch. Not the best, perhaps, but safe. His behaviour was scummy, but we could have done some more analysis on other people and maybe gotten a better candidate. EB's case on Hassybaby springs to mind as a pretty impressive case, I think if we had had the time to discuss that he would have maybe made a better lynch target. Now that we have another day ahead of us, we need to start looking less at policy lynching and more at scum reads. While there was a reasonable amount of scumhunting yesterday, we were unable to act on those reads. After filtering the voters on BByte, I can't really see anything suspicious. Every vote was based off of Lynch All Lurkers, meaning it's really hard to distinguish between which voters were motivated by policy and which were scum. Despite my voting first, I really feel like BH led the bandwagon here, and that should merit some scrutiny. As has been said in the last two pages, players thinking for themselves is a good thing. Forming your own reads will always be better than going off of someone else. That said, I find one thing suspicious. xkskc's post stood out to me as just jumping on a bandwagon and really helping to get it rolling. At the time, BH had just gotten things started. An informed mafia would be able to switch votes after seeing as visible a bandwagon as BH got rolling, and allay suspicion. "Yeah, I would prefer we lynch X, but that's not happening so I'll just go along with Y". Seems weird to me, but like anything in this game we could WIFOM it to death. Tomorrow, I think it might be a good move to focus on Hassybaby more. EB posted an interesting case yesterday, and I think I posted some stuff slightly before that. One of the big points there is his complete sheep vote on BKEXE based solely on my reasoning, and then disappearing from the thread. Something to look into. While I don't want to policy lynch him for lurking, his play so far does seem scummy. Thank you for answering. I agree with your thoughts here. It is pretty hard to say anything about which votes are more suspicious. But if I am allowed to speculate I would think at least 1 scum was in on the lynch of BByte, and more likely 2 scums to secure it. 0 and 3 would be very unlikely IMO. 0 is unlikely because I think scum wanted to secure the lynch of a townie. 3 unlikely because then they would put all their eggs in one basket (if all 3 jumped in early), and a change in lynchtarget would mean that at least 2 of them would have to switch to secure themselves (that would cause suspicion). If not all 3 jumped in early it would be no point in jumping in late for a third scum unless the vote weren't secured (for a secound scum, yeah, for a third no). So my view on the lynch yesterday is that there is likely to be two scums among the 7 who voted for BByte: Velinath, Blazinghand, xsksc, Grackorini, ey215, xtfftc and Tunkeg. And one among the rest. This is all speculations though, and probably not very usefull. As I belive BH and Velinath is the most green out of these (as of now) I will leave them out. And I will also leave myself out. This leads me to believe that there is 2 scum out of xsksc, gracken, ey215 and xtfftc. Seeing that ey215 and xtfftc is attacking eachother, and the way they are attacking eachother I don't see it as likely that they both are scum. Seeing that Grackorini is somewhat joining in on xtfftc's analyses: On December 08 2011 07:49 Grackaroni wrote:
Ey215 has been on every one of your bandwagons so far from Adam----> EB -----> BByte -------> JayBrundage.
@BH : Why is Ey215 one of your main town reads? I think he is just sheeping your vote. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. xtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. So this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player. I like parts of this post - especially the xsksc+EY bit, although I would have to seriously consider one of them being town if Jay and BKE are both red - but focusing exclussively on voting patterns is dangerous. Townies vote for various reasons, so if you're going to analyse the vote, you have to look at all the factors surrounding the decision. Even if the whole mafia team was on the Bbyte lynch (which is very much possible, although I wouldn't count on it), there's some townies on it as well. You don't take into consideration the reasons why those you have townie reads of voted for him, yet you use the vote on its own as a factor when narrowing your mafia list. Why is it perfectly fine for someone you consider to be town to vote for Bbyte, yet someone you are suspicious of is worth lynching for doing the very same thing? Also, analysing the probabilities while excluding your own town reads and then pushing a lynch depending on the results doesn't help the rest of us.
I think we all need to be held responsible for the lynch on BByte. And I am not the biggest fan of the lynch (because I think the scum actually one up'ed us on this one). But compared to the other candidates for lynch I will say it was the best (xsksc was the best IMO, but this one died when you had to go to bed and wanted to make your vote count, and I did the same).
But the reason I think a lynch on one of those I find suspicious over the one I see as more townie is that I think the probability is bigger for succeeding in hitting scum. Others with other reads will probably put different people as suspicious.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
The two players I'm most suspicious of are BKE and and xskxc aka Starshard. The problem is, Starshard has gone lurker on us. if he doesn't vote, he may be modkilled for inactivity. I don't have a good read on EY.
Given that EY and xsksc is on both your lists, if you could take a look at them that would be great. I'd stick to EY though just because STarshard/xsksc might get replaced by yet another player and hasn't made many contributions recently.
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On December 09 2011 04:05 xtfftc wrote:
Okay, I have limited time, so tell me who you want to me to have a more in-depth look at tonight (or you can have shorter analyses of two/three players, etc.). I consider Grackaroni to be town and I'm less and less suspicious of Veli. My view on the two of you (BH and Tunkeg) hasn't changed - I think you're both town (remind me to go over trusting players you consider to be town even if they're not confirmed if you want to hear why I'm doing it). I'm willing to give Starshard a break even though I would have lynched xsksc, and I'm expecting him to step up and contribute more during Day 3, just like Bluelightz. If Jay flips town, I'd say that EY, xsksc and Adam are the mafia team. If Jay flips red, I think that his partners are BKE and EY/xsk.
If you think Grackoroni is green, you want to give Starshard a break, it limits it to ey215, and him you have allready written a case on. So out of the four I suggested it is really no one left  So I have no advice for you here. Maybe you should look into the Jay case to see if you are on board with the rest that have voted for him.
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I've been looking at EY for a very long time now :D I can carry on with analysing his posts though; there's a lot of stuff to be looked at.
But the reason I think a lynch on one of those I find suspicious over the one I see as more townie is that I think the probability is bigger for succeeding in hitting scum.
Yeah but this defeats the whole purpose of your probabilities analysis. If you agree that lynching them for doing something a lot of people did, then you can simply reduce your argument to "there's bound to be mafia on the Bbyte lynch, so I'm going to exclude the ones I consider to be townies and will take a closer look at the rest."
I'm sure you can see why I have an issue with your logic: you value my vote on Bbyte the same as xsksc, even though I spend a lot of time fighting against it and xsk jumped on board in the blink of an eye. Of course, if I'm mafia I may have faked it in order to have an alibi for the Bbyte lynch - but in this case you should be analysing the reasoning I provided and not the actual vote.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
By the way, Tunkeg, who are you going to vote for?
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Tunkeg, I consider spending time on analysing Jay inefficient now. And I can post my thoughts on why I consider some people to be town as well.
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Blazinghand
United States25550 Posts
On December 09 2011 04:27 xtfftc wrote:
Tunkeg, I consider spending time on analysing Jay inefficient now. And I can post my thoughts on why I consider some people to be town as well.
Ran through your filter to fetch what we know about your stance on JB.
Here's a summary of xtfftc's statements re: JB
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291067¤tpage=36#711
On December 08 2011 04:05 xtfftc wrote:Your original case was good, your new material was herp-derp. I think I am okay with a Jay lynch for now but I have to re-read his posts first. I was planing to make an analysis of him yesterday, so he's on my to-do list for tonight with Velinath. I am not happy with those jumping on the Jay lynch though. You know my case on Adam and Velinath is someone who warrants a good long look, considering his recent posts. Posting about how he's suspicious of people jumping on the Bbyte lynch (not to mention he didn't bother pointing out what actually happened in my case) and then jumping on the Jay bandwagon just like that: Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 11:33 Velinath wrote:
First off, I was roleblocked last night.
Secondly, yes, I agree with this lynch. Scummy posts after Night 1 and the analyses posted? No question. Hassy can be saved for tomorrow.
##Vote: jaybrundage How about posting his own views before voting? He goes on to add some stuff later which sound okay but that's not enough.
Calls part of my case good, part of it bad. Said he's ok with a Jay lynch, but needs to re-read his post. Says he is not happy with those who are lynching him. Hedging.
A page later:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291067¤tpage=37#724
On December 08 2011 04:22 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 16:09 Adam4167 wrote:
It IS everyone’s fault that Bbyte ended up dead. We had 6 people follow BH’s invoking of a lurker lynch almost blindly, that is their failings and as BH has pointed out since, its also the failing of everyone else that none of us had put forward a compelling enough case to keep Bbyte off the hangman’s noose. Parroting what Veli said. Yes, it is everyone's fault that we couldn't consolidate on a proper case but no, we didn't have 6 people follow BH's invoking of a lurker lynch almost blindly. Sounds like mafia trying to make us think that this wasn't as bad of a loss as it was to me. Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 16:09 Adam4167 wrote:On December 07 2011 10:56 jaybrundage wrote:
Briefly looking over you new case its pretty shitty with no content.
Nice use of caps to make it seem like you have a point. Your "core of your argument. Is also dumb is stated multiple times i did not like the Bbyte case. I'm not gonna let you steamroll the townies into another mislynch.
Ill give people some time to read my case before i comment again. I was not expecting EB to get killed i was thinking either BH Veli maybe Grack even. I really wish he had posted his case on me instead of his empty comment that he thinks I'm mafia. Are you kidding? He’s spent hours looking at your filter and you “briefly look” at it. You might want to go back and examine the SHIT out of his case on you and start defending yourself properly. Calling his case “shit” is tantamount to saying “no u r”, it might have worked when you were 7, but its not flying here. This is a great point (Jay either scumslipped really badly or he spends more time writing his own posts than analysing others, which is pretty bad), but Adam sure likes adding fluff to his arguments. All he needed was the bolded bit, everything else is completely pointless. Show nested quote +On December 07 2011 16:09 Adam4167 wrote:
Is this a slip? “I'm not gonna let you steamroll the townies into another mislynch.”. You are part of the town… shouldn’t this read “im not going to let you steamroll us into another myslynch”, unless of course you don’t consider yourself part of the town. This is pretty bad. What is the right way to say it then? "I'm not going to let you steamroll me into mislynching myself"? I will revisit my suspicion from yesteyday when I thought that Adam might be bussing Jay.
This is actually a discussion of Adam's post, but he notes that JB scumslipped, and suspects Adam may be bussing him (which is to say, Adam suspects JB of being scum)
Finally, talking to ey215
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=291067¤tpage=37#729
On December 08 2011 04:56 xtfftc wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 04:15 ey215 wrote:
I'm not 100% sold that he's scum, but I'm sold his behavior has been anti-town.
##vote: jaybrundage ... Town does not vote to punish bad play. Town votes to lynch mafia. Show nested quote +On December 08 2011 04:15 ey215 wrote:
Fuck, I can't believe I'm jumping on the bandwagon but at the moment I don't see a better lynch option. ... How about making a case or pushing the discussion further with some analysis? I know I said I'm going to look at Jay and Velinath like 10 minutes ago but I can't allow ey215 to stay under the radar like this for another day.
It sounds like you don't think JB is mafia. You've admitted he scumslips, you suspect Adam is bussing him, and you found my initial case on him convincing.
Where do you stand?
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On December 09 2011 04:21 xtfftc wrote:I've been looking at EY for a very long time now :D I can carry on with analysing his posts though; there's a lot of stuff to be looked at. Show nested quote +But the reason I think a lynch on one of those I find suspicious over the one I see as more townie is that I think the probability is bigger for succeeding in hitting scum. Yeah but this defeats the whole purpose of your probabilities analysis. If you agree that lynching them for doing something a lot of people did, then you can simply reduce your argument to "there's bound to be mafia on the Bbyte lynch, so I'm going to exclude the ones I consider to be townies and will take a closer look at the rest." I'm sure you can see why I have an issue with your logic: you value my vote on Bbyte the same as xsksc, even though I spend a lot of time fighting against it and xsk jumped on board in the blink of an eye. Of course, if I'm mafia I may have faked it in order to have an alibi for the Bbyte lynch - but in this case you should be analysing the reasoning I provided and not the actual vote.
Good, go for EY then
As I wrote in a post further up I see you as the least scummy of the four mentioned xsksc as most. My reasoning behind go for one of you four is: I think there's two scums among the four mentioned, who voted when, and the reason for voting should be considered. So should also all their post combined.
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On December 09 2011 04:24 Blazinghand wrote:
By the way, Tunkeg, who are you going to vote for?
As of right now I will go for Starshard. But I am reading up on the EY case and his filter.
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Hi!
I'm not sure if it's really eneded, but I'll justify my vote on jaybrundage now - as I've said before, the suspicions from his posting style after the Night 1 post gave me cause for concern, and coupled with the previous cases on him I felt that he was a better lynch target for today especially given his tendency to be vocal (unlike the largely lurking hassybaby, who was much less likely to misdirect the town). Following my vote, JB scumslipped quite hard against both myself and Blazinghand, and outright lied to try and distract everyone from the evidence against him, thus solidifying my opinion of him as scum.
I would also like to point to something that I believe Tunkeg pointed out recently, that jaybrundage and BKEXE (another of my current scum suspects) have been defending each other all game.
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EPT
