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Recently a lot of people have been crediting Lyoto Machida with being unbeatable after his dismantling TKOs of Rashad Evans and Thiago Silva. Now I’ll go out on a limb now and say Rampage Jackson stands the best chance to win the title from Lyoto, but before we get into that, let’s look at what Machida does well, and how he approaches certain situations.
What Machida Does Really Well
Machida’s wide stance gives people fits because it sacrifices power but allows for him to throw untelegraphed kicks from any position mostly to opponent’s thighs or midsection as well as avoid takedown attempts. The fact that he’s a southpaw also means that he can hit your lead leg very quickly and easily which slows down the opponent and frustrates his rhythm.
He also maintains a very strange posture where he leans backwards making it very hard to counter his kicks with a right straight. For anyone that didn’t know, the best counter to a kick is to crash into it and follow up with boxing combos as the closer you get to the start of the kick the more it reduces the strength of the kick, as well as most people have a tendency to throw there hand down on the side of the body they are kicking with which leaves them open for a right straight. Machida’s unique posture and larger frame than most of his opponents makes this difficult to do. This leads to opponents backing up from him which is the opposite reaction they need to take.
Lyoto Machida is probably the best out-fighter (think Ali) in MMA History. He will pick you apart slowly at the legs if you give him room or try to dance around like Rashad Evans did without really pressuring him. Once your legs start to fail you won’t be able to catch him or evade him as he circles around until he eventually wears you down and knocks you out.
Next, you have to look at what happens when an opponent actually gets close enough to Machida to clinch or go for a takedown. Machida has one of the best bases in MMA balance wise. I would say he’s up there with BJ Penn in that regard. When opponents try to clinch with them there is one common occurrence, they end up on their back. Machida’s foot trips are a thing of beauty, finding just when his opponent is off balance and capitalizing on it. Also, in the rare event that someone grabs one of his legs or gets past his sprawl, he usually has enough balance to stand and jump out on the other leg. In the rare event where he gets taken down by the opponent, his awareness often allows him to sweep the opponent nearly instantaneously to the takedown.
Machida also has a very methodical ground game, not only can he defend from the bottom (he hasn’t really attacked from the bottom in any of his fights) but is never on his back for very long with great sweeps and escapes. Coupled with this is an amazing top game which also focuses on his balance to stay on top of the opponent while gaining mount, and then raining down elbows and fists onto the opponent.
Feints. Machida has been able to plant a seed of fear into all of his opponents because of his strong hands which he uses to abuse them with feints. If you watch the Rashad Evans fight, every time Lyoto moves like he could throw a strike Rashad overreacts and puts his feet together (very bad). If you watch the Tito Ortiz fight he also feint a right hand before landing a crushing knee in the 3rd Round.
Machida is also deceptively strong. If you watch his fights, the way he is able to control and throw around much bigger opponents is awe inspiring.
One of the least talked about strength of Machida is his Timing. Like I said before, the best counter to a kick is to crash the line, and then throw boxing combos. If you want to see how this is done, watch Machida. He seems to know all the tell tale signs people exhibit before throwing a kick and has no fear of stepping into it which allows him to often tag people, some even before they can kick. He also has an amazing ability to know just when opponents are going to drop there hands to throw a punch, and using his speed hits them before they hit him. If you watch the Rich Franklin fight, Rich starts to throw a left from the chest and before it even gets halfway to Machida he already got hit in the face.
Lastly, Machida studies. He formulated a game plan for each of his fights tailor made to illuminate their weaknesses. He basically has a rolodex of when people drop there hands and has made a career of induces that, stunning people with a shot, then hitting them with a barrage. He also finds out how to frustrate opponents really early into the fight, while sticking to his game plan.
Cliff Notes: Machida’s best qualities include Amazing Timing, Balance, and Speed.
His favorite techniques are foot sweeps, left leg kicks, and counter left straights.
Machida’s Few Weaknesses
One of the problems with Machida's stance is that when he is forces to back up his hands are always wide. Now using traditional Karate Blocks (using a twist of your forearm to change the course of a straight punch) he is able to block most straight punches, and he's fast enough to dodge most hooking punches. The problem is that there is an opening for a straight as well as if you can pressure him into a corner (hard to do in an octagon) he is vulnerable to hooks to the head and body.
Another one of Machida's weaknesses is that his guard is very wide and if you get in close to him you can hit him with uppercuts like in the Nakamura fight. If a fighter were to press closer to him like Thiago Silva did, but without throwing anything for him to counter, and with a tighter guard up they could be able to get into a close range fight with Lyoto where he is the weakest.
Lastly, Machida's final weakness is a product of the UFC. He's become a more aggressive fighter trying to impress the UFC and the American fans, which means that he himself has become vulnerable to counters and feints.
Cliff Notes: Machida's weaknesses are punches right down the middle and in-fighting uppercuts as well as his desire to end the fight early.
Well? So How do we beat this Monster?
Lyoto is a freak. He has such a mix of strengths that apply in almost any situation that it will be very hard for anyone to beat him. Some of the keys to beat him will be Basic, not Flashy boxing, good balance, and weak single leg takedowns that don't create much momentum.
Some advice I would give to anyone trying to fight Machida, would be that they should keep their guard up at all times and be cautious while moving forward and try to get into a clinch where they can force Machida against the cage. Here they need to keep their feet planted strongly and watch out for the sweeps. If possibly, becuase he usually tries to sweep your lead foot especially when you pick it up and put it back down, fake doing that and then do a foot sweep of your own to his back leg. This could catch him completely off balance and let you secure a top position (hopefully get a few punches in as he falls too).
Next, he's too quick to take down unless he's up against the cage. Don't try to shoot or else hes just going to move and tag you on the way up. The best way to take Machida down would be to catch one of his kicks and do a slow single leg jujitsu take down, or to clinch with him then go for it. What I mean for this is a single leg that doesn't use the persons driving force to take the opponent down.(similar video below)This kind of take down will limit the advantage Machida's balance and quickness give him over sweeping people as they get the take down.
So why do I think Rampage Jackson has the best chance to taking out Machida when he obviously isn't going to go for a take down like that, do any sort of foot sweep, and probably won't clinch? Basically because he has the best defense of anyone in the division with a great counter hook (that beat Liddell and Silva). The real question about this fight is whether after the Forest Griffin fight, Rampage learned how to check kicks. If not, he'd be destroyed by Lyoto, but if he did he could do what no one else has, and take the W from him.
