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Good morning, everyone. I'll be running for office.
First of all, if I'll be selected as Mayor, I'm planning on lynching someone who's extremely suspicious, if there is one. Because it is highly unlikely for there to be a really suspicious red this early in the game(even if this is the newbies' game), there are other options. Even if day 1 clues can't really be put too much emphasis on, if they point at a relatively suspicious person, that person would be high on my lynching list. That's basically how I'm planning on using the day 1's clues; As a support for suspicious people, and also as a support for future clues. In the case there is absolutely no one suspicious(highly unlikely), I will think about it according to the situation, most likely someone relatively inactive.
I don't believe in relying primarily on the day 1 clues to lynch someone, since they're normally way too vague to be able to fully determine a mafia just by analysing them. We could all see what happened with Pyrr's analysis in Chuiu's last Mafia.
In the case that I'll be elected as the town's Sheriff, I'll only be able to incarcenate 2 people, which is quite low. I'm planning on using my incarceration ability to incarcerate either
1. A good player I believe to be a townie that I believe for whatever reason won't receive the medic protection he would require in order to survive the night(This is the most likely use) or
2. In the case that the town has figured out at least 2 surefire Mafia, but we only have a single lynch available. Now, if the incarceration would reduce Mafia's firepower, I think it might be a good idea to incarcerate the other Mafia and lynching the other, and then lynching the incarcerated Mafia the next day. However, this will be rarer, and I will more likely be using the incarceration to just protect the good players who require it.
My voting policy is to mostly vote for the people the town wants dead, assuming it makes sense. I will not fall for stupid bandwagons, and will try to make the town come to it's senses. I might abstain from voting as well, if there is no one I see as highly suspicious or if I believe my vote won't be needed, however, that should be rare. I will always follow logic, and will not make too hasty decisions. I will generally vote for a suspicious player who can be connected to clues.
However, I'll be wary of Mafia attempting to make the clues seem to point at someone they obviously are not. I will also be suspicious of everyone except confirmed townies, especially bandwagon starters and people acting inconsistantly. If there are no good targets for lynch, I might have to abstain, or possibly vote for an inactive who is acting fishy.
My information policy is to tell mostly everything to everyone, unless it is information that would benefit Mafia. I will generally not send many PM's and I won't reveal my role to anyone. I also suggest everyone to not reveal their role to me or anyone else, regardless of if I am going to be elected or not. However, sometimes PMing might be necessary in order to keep information from Mafia, but I'm still planning on doing it the absolute, bare minimum.
My experience with Mafia is limited to watching the past 2 games and I'm also following Mafia VIII closely. I haven't personally player any Mafia games, except a few very small ones with my school class a while back.
I would say that my strong point would be behavioral analysis and logic, and also finding logic in others and where it should be when it's not. For example, I was able to figure out that Qatol was Mafia in the last game quite early on(Then again, who couldn't?). I'm not all that confident about my skill at analysing clues, though. Even though in the last game I was able to figure something out and some things made sense, in Chuiu's game before that, I didn't get almost any of the clues even after they were revealed. That's why, even though I'm going to do my best in clue analysing, I'm planning on mostly leaving it for others to handle.
I also know how people acted in the past few Mafia games somewhat, so that might be able to help me figure out who is being inconsistant with their behavior. I am going to make my decisions logically and I am going to think and consider every situation calmly. However, I am able to use slightly stronger language in order to get my point accross when it's needed.
I started running for office partly because that was my plan even before the game started, and partly because I wasn't happy at all with the other people's platform's.
Jimtudor's platform is essentially "I'm good at everything, although you know nothing of me, and I won't tell you what I'm going to do, but we'll kill all reds", which is less than satisfactory, even if the anti-red talk might sound nice and all.
iLoveKTF's platform seems slightly bette... actually, no it doesn't. He's just telling who he'd lynch if he was selected as mayor, and that's that, even disregarding the role of sheriff completely. Even if he did play well as a medic in the last game, that doesn't mean that he can simply run for office without a platform whatsoever. Also, I absolutely detest the picture he stole from Caller.
For now, all I'm going to ask for everyone is to vote, be it for me or anyone else. It's all we have, so be sure to use your power wisely.
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On May 18 2009 20:44 wurm wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 17:10 The_Master wrote:
I am up for lynching inactive people on the first day. First of all, they are going to get killed anyway in a couple days, and if there is not enough evidence to pinpoint anyone it's better than just choosing a random active person (who is more than likely a townie).
Yes, it is possible that we might accidentally kill a blue role, but we might get a maffie as well. Anyway, there isn't much difference a blue role who doesn't do anything and dead blue role.
If someone is acting suspicious, I'm all for it - but I doubt that will happen on the first day. I think this is a bad idea. Yes we may hit a mafioso, but last game I played we voted for lynching an inactive we hit blue. A mad-hatter at that. I'm sure there will be some sort of inactivity from some of the players, but immediately going for them after not posting for one day is not the way to go. I say we watch for anything weird during the elections.
Well, even if inactives might or might not be the first choice, if we don't ever hit the inactives the Mafia can easily just hide amongst them and have us running around after each other like headless chickens. "We might hit a blue" isn't really a good argument, there's always the chance.
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On May 18 2009 21:47 wurm wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 21:27 Shikyo wrote:On May 18 2009 20:44 wurm wrote:On May 18 2009 17:10 The_Master wrote:
I am up for lynching inactive people on the first day. First of all, they are going to get killed anyway in a couple days, and if there is not enough evidence to pinpoint anyone it's better than just choosing a random active person (who is more than likely a townie).
Yes, it is possible that we might accidentally kill a blue role, but we might get a maffie as well. Anyway, there isn't much difference a blue role who doesn't do anything and dead blue role.
If someone is acting suspicious, I'm all for it - but I doubt that will happen on the first day. I think this is a bad idea. Yes we may hit a mafioso, but last game I played we voted for lynching an inactive we hit blue. A mad-hatter at that. I'm sure there will be some sort of inactivity from some of the players, but immediately going for them after not posting for one day is not the way to go. I say we watch for anything weird during the elections. Well, even if inactives might or might not be the first choice, if we don't ever hit the inactives the Mafia can easily just hide amongst them and have us running around after each other like headless chickens. "We might hit a blue" isn't really a good argument, there's always the chance. I just don't want them to be the first choice. I didn't say we never hit the inactives. At this point there will be some level of inactivity at the start and most of the players are first timers, I don't expect them to post immediately after a day post. Just because them being inactive isn't a reason to lynch them outright. Like I said, the best way to weed out the suspicious ones right now is how everybody acts during the elections.
Yeah, I agree. Lynching inactives should be for when we have no good information. However, the suspicions need to be quite strong in order to lynch an actively posting player. On town's side, they're always more valuable than inactives are. And during the first day, it's usually quite difficult to find out who exactly would be mafia. Although we can probably narrow it down slightly. For example, posting a lot early and discussing things actively reduces the chance of someone being mafia. I doubt they would be posting much yet, they need to somehow get organized first. Some mafia are most likely still asleep, and I doubt the others would dare to post too much without discussing with the ones who are asleep.
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About the candidates? As far as I can see, there are only 2 candidates besides me, and no one has any votes yet. It's kind of interesting that no one has voted yet. I personally can't say anything about myself, but I don't like either of the other candidates' platforms as of yet.
I'm wondering why iLoveKTF is specifically requesting to be Mayor. What might his motives be for that?
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Oh, by the way, I think that the clue analysis by softer is the best one we have thus far, although I still wouldn't bet anything on it. However, if we see some similiarities in day 2 or day 3 posts, we might have a reasonable suspect.
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On May 18 2009 23:13 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:
Shikyo, I think going off of "I doubt the others would dare to post too much without discussing with the ones who are asleep." is going to work here, because this is a new game. That leaves a lot of wild cards for us.
I won't vote for a mayor who is going to lynch an inactive because like someone else said, an mafia can just echo other people to stay alive, while we risk just killing ourselves. There are a lack of solid clues, but we still have some solid things working here. A couple people come up in multiple clue hits (Teks, Jayme) and depending on what others see come up, we might be able to actually nail one of these guys right off.
Especially since it's a newbie game, I believe that the players wouldn't want to screw the rest of the mafia over, and would indeed try to consult others instead of acting alone. Of course, they could post harmless posts, but I doubt they would post anything significant.
If we never lynch inactives, Mafia can just hide amongs them. And I don't mean the no-vote inactives, I mean the vote-and-post-an-one-liner-now-and-then inactives. If there are better targets, we'll go for them. However, if we have no suspects, lynching an inactive should be better than lynching an active townie.
About Jayme and Teks, even if it's still too early to say anything definite, Jayme might be the most suspicious thus far, although not enough for me to think he's definitely a mafia. Teks... it'd help to know if Pyrr knew how much he likes Erlend Loe.
Also, it's nice to see some quality posting. Seems like the Americans are starting to wake up.
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Excessive clue analysis based on the clues of day 1 is never a good thing, and we should never lynch anyone based solely, or even primarily, on then. They're best used as support for other clues.
About the lynching of an inactive. It's not just a stab to the dark. First of all, it encourages players to be active. Second, an inactive townie would be useless anyway and enable Mafia to hide amongst them, as mentioned. Third, it forces the Mafia to come out and start posting more, possibly exposing themselves somewhat. We can't just let inactive people be. A missed lynch of an inactive makes the mafia come out and makes other players be more active. And an inactive townie never was useful in the first place.
And about lynching an active poster who some clues might point at, that we can only do by day 2 or 3. Day 1 clues are far too subtle to be able to make out anything off them alone. If we were to lynch someone based on them, it had better have some quite strong support by behavioral analysis, as well.
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Hmmm chaoser just said what I've been saying all along, and that's a good point about blues.
Everyone, more people should try to run for the office. Assuming there's one Mafia running for the office now, we'll only have one combination where a Mafia wouldn't be in the office. Another reason is that the posts for the election have been mostly lackluster, and I really would like to place my vote on someone.
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I'm not exactly sure if KTF is slumping, though... it might be a bit too far-fetched. But of course, we have to keep this stuff in mind some clues come up later that might relate to these. Still, day 1 clues are day 1 clues, so please don't draw any strange conclusions off them. + Show Spoiler [very minor Death Note spoilers] +L actually isn't the main character of Death Note; Light is. And he's not a police officer, but rather a righteous/religious school boy.
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Oh, actually the latter part of the spoiler is semi - incorrect, but I won't edit it I guess.
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On May 19 2009 00:51 teks wrote:(although he mentioned that he didn't check his role before nominating himself).
To me, this little bit actually increases the chance of mafia slightly. I'm not accusing him of anything, but it still does.
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On May 19 2009 01:10 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 19 2009 00:56 vx70GTOJudgexv wrote:It's definitely worth keeping track of all these things even if they seem wild now, it may all come together at one point, and best to be prepared. On May 19 2009 00:51 teks wrote:On May 19 2009 00:47 chaoser wrote:
Like i said before, the fact that so MANY clues are being pointed at someone seems kinda weird (horn, glass breaking, slump all "point" to iLoveKTF) Perhaps only one of those clues point to him. The hard thing about this game is that most people are new so there's hardly any behavior analysis to go off of =[ Yeah, it's not very likely that they are all valid clues pointing to the same person, it would make things too easy for a day 1 clue imo. But for each possible clue the chance that one of them is real increases, and this is something we should keep in mind when voting, seeing how he IS running for office (although he mentioned that he didn't check his role before nominating himself). This is Mafia. He could be lying. We never know. what is mafia?
"Pyrry's --->Mafia<--- Game - Day 1"
I too do think that the mafia shouldn't have posted too actively yet, and I doubt they would have anyone running for office yet. I think we should wait for a while longer, until everyone in America is able to post as well, and then possibly compose a list of inactive users.
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On May 19 2009 01:12 Knutti wrote:You wouldn't be saying that if you had KTF in FPL  @teks: everyone can say they didn't check their roles before nominating for sheriff/mayor but that doesn't make it any more true and imo anyone who says that are only trying to draw suspicion away from themself
I don't think KTF really was a favorite in the first place.
And that's correct, that's why I think the chance of being mafia is higher if someone says that.
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Okay, at least there's one more person running for office, now. The game has been quite quiet thus far, I wonder if it'll at any point become more active.
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I would make a list of inactives if that wasn't like 2/3th's of the town. ^_^ Well, iLoveKTF hasn't really said anything after his office announcement and the first few posts, and hasn't addressed the clues in any way. That, to me, seems quite suspicious.
JeeJee's platform is based mostly on "I'm experienced"... which still is better than the other candidates', I guess. Lynching inactives is always good, though. Which brings me to vx70GTOJudgexv.
Could you please tell me the reason why you are against lynching inactives so much? You seem like an intelligent person, and it seems like you've been following the last few Mafia games. You should know how important activity is for the town, and how lynching inactives nearly always helps the town somehow.
You also should know that there's a good chance of hitting a Mafia by lynching an inactive. So how come you are so strongly against lynching inactives, despire what you've seen and learnt in the past Mafia games? I would love to hear something about this from you.
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Yeah, I still have no idea if I should keep my vote abstained or actually vote for someone. For now, it seems like iLoveKTF is the lowest on my list of people to vote. I'm trying to figure something out right now, might possibly post something later.
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Oh yes, I forgot. Pyrr, is it too much work if you had links on the front page for every day and every night, just like Chuiu did in his last game? It's incredibly useful and convenient, so if it's not too troublesome, it'd be great. Or were you going to only include them in the OP? That works too, I just think it'd be useful when trying to find certain posts that happened at a certain time.
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All right, guys. I'm going to tell you something that caught my eye.
BWdero has thus far only made one post in this topic. The post was this:
On May 19 2009 00:31 BWdero wrote:That would be Black Bolt, King of the Inhumans. @chaoser Even if we do lynch an inactive blue we don't really hurt the town because they were inactive anyways. I support killing off an inactive. But only if no major suspects come up. Seeing how this is only the first day I seriously doubt any suspects will come up. Seeing as how day 1 clue analysis is rubbish and only an idiot mafia would betray himself so early.
This post can basically be considered as just repeating information that already has been said, without adding anything new. So what's so interesting about this post? It is the usage of some powerful words, especially "idiot" and "rubbish". I checked all of BWdero's post from the last 3 games he played in, and indeed, he never used this kind of language, rather, his posts were respective most of the time, although there were sometimes a few sarcastic lines mixed in. He was a townie in all 3 games.
Also, the word "betray" feels slightly strange here. Would a townie use the word "betray" like this? To me, it seems more likely that he would feel like they themselves would be betrayed to use such a word. Which would make me believe he'd be mafia.
Also, there's the issue of him voting for JeeJee, which is what made me initially check him up, after his first post had caught my eye before. He basically only came on and voted. Isn't that strange? Now, I checked his voting history the past 3 games, and he has generally been bandwagoning, as in, voting for the person with the most votes.In one case in the last mafia, there were multiple possible lynchables, where he abstained. In the same mafia, he voted for Qatol for office after 4 people had voted him before him.
In all the lynch votes, he was generally voting for the person who had the most votes. In mafia 5, however, he voted for semioldguy, although BC had more votes at the moment. After that, however, he changed his vote to Pyrruloxia right after 3 people had voted for him.
So in this case, it seems really strange for him to come on just to vote for JeeJee without having really said anything in the thread for a long time. And his language and word choice seem suspicious to me, as well.
What do you guys think about this?
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On May 19 2009 08:12 Jayme wrote:
What bothers me most about this bandwagon... or start of one really is that Shikyo hasn't really done anything for his platform to warrant this sort of response.
It's a game filled with newer players, a great deal of which might just wait behind the scenes and go with what popular opinion is to not get lynched. All you would really need is a few confidence votes or at least the illusion of one and you'd definitely get the surge of voting needed to bring out other people to your cause.
It's just a wild guess of mine, but maybe it's the same reason why I haven't voted yet... I don't believe their platforms are good enough, really. Jimtudor's would probably be the best thus far, but I'm not really sure about all the with-me-we-kill-all-red attitude in his first post for office cancidacy. The experience and the lynching inactives etc. are, well, pretty obvious in a sense. He's done some decent clue analysis, though, and his later posts have been better, so maybe he'd be my first pick for now. But really, it's still ... yeah.
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Oh yeah, Jayme. What do you think about all the clues people are trying to link to you?
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EPT
