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Newbie Mini Mafia XXVIII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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1 2 Next All
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 02 2012 06:31 GMT
#613
Hi guys, I just got told I'm subbing in for Lesrah. In brief, I've played a few rounds before and I'm looking forward to catching some scum with everyone else here.

I'll be off to bed soon and will probably be at work until late tomorrow. Sometime between now and then I'll check through Kushm4sta's filter to see what sort of associative tells I can get. Until then, glhf everyone.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 02 2012 06:34 GMT
#617
ebwop Corrosion. omg i'm so sorry =(
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 02 2012 06:34 GMT
#618
Hi Darth! <3
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 02 2012 07:21 GMT
#623
So at this point I have a moderate scum read on Alsn and strong town read on Darthpunk.

I'm still not sold on Debears yet. Every time people push him as a lynch and everyone just nods along and agrees (this is based on a cursory ready through 30+ pages of filter late at night, so pardon me if I'm totally wrong about this), I get a wierd feeling in the pit of my stomach. Why? Because scum is already down one, there is almost zero chance they'd accede easily to a second consecutive bus. So if everyone is nodding along on Debears, and scum isn't going to roll over and bus again, then, WIFOM as this reasoning is, it doesn't seem reasonable that Debears should be scum.

Alsn, however, feels scummy to me. Why?
  • First, his activity and "choppiness" is way higher than in the last newbie game I played with him, where he flipped town. That game, I was scum, and I whacked him N1 because his analysis was so dead-on, accurate, and well-composed--we actually placed killing him at a higher priority than trying to snipe our top cop read. I don't get that feeling with Alsn this game. Alsn's analysis has been much, much weaker than I usually give him credit for. But overall, meta is a weak way to read a player. Much stronger...
  • ...is his reasoning regarding the Kush switch. He was one of the last to go to Kush and tried to appear as reluctant and thoughtful as possible. He also tried to subtly denigrate the worth of a Kush flip
    First, I'd like to start things with stating so far D1 has pretty much lived up to my exact nightmare scenario that I speculated about when arguing with DP yesterday. Everyone is voting kush with only very little discussion about any other topic(mainly, the debears-boson exchange).

    While we might just think he was being reluctant, part of me thinks Alsn posted like this because it was the only way out of a bad situation. Alsn went to sleep at 03:50, when no one had voted anyone yet. Then wakes up 14 hours and several pages later with a massive wagon forming on scum Kush. At this point, if Alsn was scum, he'd be stuck in a terrible spot: he needs to somehow look like he's been convinced into voting Kush. So he does do this, with a pretty WIFOM starting post that gets pressured and then gives him the ladder he needs to climb down to a kush vote. All in all a pretty neat play... but one that feels just a little too much like play-acting rather than genuine scumhunting for me to like it.
  • Contrast his reads on Kush with his posts on Debears. Before he switches to Kush, he says he did soul searching and hard thinking and found no one as a better lynch. Then all of a sudden, on D2, when there's a fresh slate to push a new lynch, he starts using Debears' D1 posts as evidence that points to scumminess. This is wierd. Why didn't Alsn publish this beforehand? There is no motivation for a town Alsn to change his mind on cut and dry evidence in this fashion.
  • Finally, and this is pure speculation unless a medic/JK comes out and claims an action on DP, the fact that there is no NK might mean that medic/JK saved the obvious confirmed townie (DP) and scum tried to kill him. This is wierd play if scum knows it's likely DP was going to be saved. This means something that DP did during night spooked scum. DP accused Alsn during the night.


All four points are not damning guilt in and of themselves. But combined, they point a pretty compelling picture of a scum Alsn. Right now he's my strongest read and as such

##Vote Alsn

However, he's only a moderate scumread. Depending on what happens between now and when I check in the thread in about 16 or 17 hours, I might change my mind.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 02 2012 16:53 GMT
#684
Why did Z-Boson unvote debears?
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 02 2012 23:38 GMT
#728
Oh wow. I feel kinda retarded right now.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 03 2012 01:01 GMT
#730
Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum.

## Vote debears

Heading out for the night. If I don't make it back by daypost, cop please check omni or remedy and remember it is possible GF is last mafia. That's all, glhf.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 03 2012 04:16 GMT
#734
On October 03 2012 13:12 debears wrote:
@Shady

Show nested quote +
On October 03 2012 10:01 Shady Sands wrote:
Alright, since Lesrah wasn't posting through D2 then that means that if debears was the other scum there was no other scum trying to stop his lynch. Hence the lack of opposition to his lynch becomes less of a town-tell to me. This, coupled with the earlier case on him (which he hasn't adequately responded to, imo) makes me view him as scum.

## Vote debears

Heading out for the night. If I don't make it back by daypost, cop please check omni or remedy and remember it is possible GF is last mafia. That's all, glhf.


If you believe I'm the last scum, why wouldn't you nightcheck me?

Why should I? It wastes a nightcheck on someone I'm certain is scum.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 03 2012 04:17 GMT
#735
Plus, I'm pretty sure that if need be I don't need the additional evidence of a cop check to get you lynched. Omni and Remedy are players I'm suspicious of, but players who town hasn't yet formed a consensus on.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 03 2012 20:15 GMT
#797
Can medic/jk target the same person two nights in a row?
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 05:13 GMT
#886
Surprised no one is posting about me. I feel left out =(
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 05:19 GMT
#890
By the way, I'm reading through the thread. Right now, my top scumread, believe it or not, is Z-Boson. His interaction with Kush D1 was just... strange (it almost feels like half of the discussion there was occurring somewhere else, like in the Scum QT), his unvote of Debears and transfer to Alsn is also wierd, and finally his constant fingerpointing without any commitment D3 fits the profile of being the very last scum trying to stay alive and set up mislynch chains over the next few cycles.

##FoS Z-Boson
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:09 GMT
#908
On October 05 2012 16:41 Z-BosoN wrote:
This is very intriguing...
Thanks for that post SS, it brought out some very interesting reactions.
Of course, your case is laughable, as usual.
Of course, as scum, I would want to switch my vote towards a townie, in favor of, let's see, another townie. I will definitely bother producing a fuckton of text just for that.
Anyways, djodref managed to be even worse. Please reread your points against me, and think of how they could come from me as scum. Think about what your FOS accomplishes for town here today. I'll be accepting donations to make up for you making my eyes bleed.
If Omni doesn't answer, it's either debears/djodref/SS imo. Pointless lynching a modkill. Will decide come tomorrow, I gotta go sleep.
SDM, I'd love to know your input on who you'd rather lynch save Omni.
I'm sleepy as hell and will go to sleep, but probably during class tomorrow I'm gonna make up my mind.
RSC, same thing.
Gnight!

This is exactly the sort of post which I don't like seeing from Z-Boson. Let's see what it does for him here:

1) It makes him look pro-town without contributing independent analysis
2) It lets him potentially join a wagon on nearly anyone in the town without looking suspicious
3) It puts all the onus for scumhunting on other people while not putting his own neck out for anyone
4) It lets him have an excuse to get the last word in/join a wagon late without his timing looking suspicious at all
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:26 GMT
#911
My case on ZB basically boils down to two things:

1) ZB's behavior toward Kush during D1
2) Why ZB is losing focus on Debears

Now let's go back to Z-Boson's words during the Kush meltdown:

First a soft defense:
I'm not against a kush lynch atm, but from what I gather kush's case is mostly meta-based with a side dish of not-scumhunting and also general scummy-looking posts. I think my evidence against debear is much more damning. Please read carefully his posts and my case and see if you don't agree.


Then somehow
But oh they can. Scum can't genuinely scumhunt, and will usually make mistakes in doing so. This early in the game, debears has managed to quickly change his mind about pursuing scum not once, but twice. Him just forgetting all about Djoref and basically assuming him to be town was just ??SDFG ?A?SDF?A?SDF?.

His inconsistencies to me look more scummy then townie, especially when looking at how repetitive his arguments are.

Who do you think is a better lynch then, kush? Grace us with a case.

He asks Kush for a case

And then he keeps asking Kush for cases
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400584
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400729

While still soft-defending Kush:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400743

Still trying to "redeem" Kush
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=16400878

etc. etc.

What is important here is not what Z-Boson is saying to Kush, but how he's saying it: Z-Boson is treating Kush with some degree of good faith while maintaining skepticism of other posters. This is really what's really strange.

At first, I didn't think in a 3-scum setup 2 of the scum could band together so obviously, but after realizing that Lesrah was basically AFK/a potential modkill, then it makes sense: Z-Boson is actually doing everything he can to save the scumteam since one of their members is already gone, and it's showing through in his posts to Kush.

The second part of this case comes about from Z-Boson's case on Debears. The case starts D1, and it starts very strong, so much so that ZB was pushing it over the Kush wagon, but then Z-B somehow is willing to ditch it (after a long explanatory post, of course) for an Alsn wagon.

Then Alsn is mislynched. Now ZB is flinging accusations everywhere at the rest of town without focusing back on Debears. This makes no sense to me, since if Debears is ZB's top read other than the Alsn mislynch wagon which he joined, why isn't he refocusing on his original read?

Answer: because ZB doesn't want Debears townie alignment revealed, obviously, since that would reveal him as pushing a mislynch from D1 and hurt his towncred, which is a vital resource for scum if they want to survive from a 7-1 situation through to LYLO.

This is the second deeper point here: every single post from ZB hasn't necessarily been to advance the scumhunt, but rather generate a lot of noise so as to improve ZB's towncred. Read his filter and see if ZB is actually putting his money where his mouth is, or whether he's just making the right noises to not get lynched himself.

At this point, I'm very convinced that ZB is scum. So should you.

##Vote Z-Boson
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:29 GMT
#913
On October 05 2012 20:27 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2012 20:09 Shady Sands wrote:
On October 05 2012 16:41 Z-BosoN wrote:
This is very intriguing...
Thanks for that post SS, it brought out some very interesting reactions.
Of course, your case is laughable, as usual.
Of course, as scum, I would want to switch my vote towards a townie, in favor of, let's see, another townie. I will definitely bother producing a fuckton of text just for that.
Anyways, djodref managed to be even worse. Please reread your points against me, and think of how they could come from me as scum. Think about what your FOS accomplishes for town here today. I'll be accepting donations to make up for you making my eyes bleed.
If Omni doesn't answer, it's either debears/djodref/SS imo. Pointless lynching a modkill. Will decide come tomorrow, I gotta go sleep.
SDM, I'd love to know your input on who you'd rather lynch save Omni.
I'm sleepy as hell and will go to sleep, but probably during class tomorrow I'm gonna make up my mind.
RSC, same thing.
Gnight!

This is exactly the sort of post which I don't like seeing from Z-Boson. Let's see what it does for him here:

1) It makes him look pro-town without contributing independent analysis
2) It lets him potentially join a wagon on nearly anyone in the town without looking suspicious
3) It puts all the onus for scumhunting on other people while not putting his own neck out for anyone
4) It lets him have an excuse to get the last word in/join a wagon late without his timing looking suspicious at all


You haven't even clarified why you voted Debears.

I voted Alsn??
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:32 GMT
#914
On October 05 2012 20:29 Shady Sands wrote:
Show nested quote +
On October 05 2012 20:27 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
On October 05 2012 20:09 Shady Sands wrote:
On October 05 2012 16:41 Z-BosoN wrote:
This is very intriguing...
Thanks for that post SS, it brought out some very interesting reactions.
Of course, your case is laughable, as usual.
Of course, as scum, I would want to switch my vote towards a townie, in favor of, let's see, another townie. I will definitely bother producing a fuckton of text just for that.
Anyways, djodref managed to be even worse. Please reread your points against me, and think of how they could come from me as scum. Think about what your FOS accomplishes for town here today. I'll be accepting donations to make up for you making my eyes bleed.
If Omni doesn't answer, it's either debears/djodref/SS imo. Pointless lynching a modkill. Will decide come tomorrow, I gotta go sleep.
SDM, I'd love to know your input on who you'd rather lynch save Omni.
I'm sleepy as hell and will go to sleep, but probably during class tomorrow I'm gonna make up my mind.
RSC, same thing.
Gnight!

This is exactly the sort of post which I don't like seeing from Z-Boson. Let's see what it does for him here:

1) It makes him look pro-town without contributing independent analysis
2) It lets him potentially join a wagon on nearly anyone in the town without looking suspicious
3) It puts all the onus for scumhunting on other people while not putting his own neck out for anyone
4) It lets him have an excuse to get the last word in/join a wagon late without his timing looking suspicious at all


You haven't even clarified why you voted Debears.

I voted Alsn??

ebwop I see what you mean here.

I voted Debears because he was playing scummy, and because other than him, there was no good lynch candidate.

But if Z-Boson is scum, then Debears can't be, and it makes me view the case on Debears (a large part of which came from ZB) in a new light.

Does that make sense?
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:39 GMT
#919
On October 05 2012 20:36 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
Besides you voted Debears after Alsn had flipped green. If you think Alsn's green flip means Debears can't be scum, why did you vote on him?

Because I skimmed the thread as opposed to reading everyone's filters closely enough. I fucked up and went for the easy case as opposed to actually doing some digging of my own.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:42 GMT
#922
On October 05 2012 20:37 Djodref wrote:
So why shouldn't we lynch debears first to have his alignment ?

I think we can have a consensus today on debears and hopefully Omni gets modkilled. What do you think about this proposition ?



I'd rather we lynch Z-B first. If Debears flips green and scum whack me or someone who's pushing the Z-B lynch then there's always a chance he can sway the rest of town and slip out of their grasp. If Z-B flips green it's still likely that town can secure a Debears lynch no matter what.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:46 GMT
#926
On October 05 2012 20:39 Sonic Death Monkey wrote:
But it still makes no sense to me. You assume Boson is scum, thus Debears can't be scum and thus Boson must be scum. Your assumption is your conclusion.

No

I know Alsn is town.
I know ZB is trying to avoid pushing hard for a Debears lynch D2/3 even though he pushed a Debears lynch D1.
Thus ZB's case on Debears feels insincere.
Thus most of the case on Debears gets thrown out by me.

At the same time, I ask why ZB would want to push for a D1 Debears lynch even over Kush. Answer: Save Kush since Lesrah is AFK.
I also ask why ZB would suddenly back away D2/D3. Answer: Avoid having town realize that the D1 push on Debears was a mislynch, accrue towncred, survive till endgame.

I cannot find any townie motivation why ZB would flip from pushing Debears over Kush D1 to accepting Alsn D2 and FoSing half the town over Debears D3.
Что?
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
October 05 2012 11:49 GMT
#927
On October 05 2012 20:43 Z-BosoN wrote:
LOL. Shady. Omg. Right now I'm trying to figure out if:
A) shady's vote on me is too retarded to come from scum.
B) shady's vote on me is retarded enough for him to be scum.
Its not that I was wrong about alsn. Its that I want town cred.
Actually the main reasons I'm less suspicious of debears I've already stated. I don't think his actions are necessarily scum-motivated. He also tried convincing kush to stop his antiques, and I don't see him doing that outside the QT to draw attention to himself. Its called reconsidering, not "I want to lynch a townie so as to not lynch a townie" shitfest you have going on.
Going by experience, everytime I've seriously felt like punching you silly, you were town.
That only leaves djodref. Expect some heat buddy. Your fos of me was hella weird.

You FoS'd half the town in your last few posts. Now you focus on Djodref for OMGUS?
Что?
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