EPTI may be a bit bitter about my most recent game, but I still enjoy playing this game.
I'm still learning, and I'm looking forward to a chance to rebound
.Newbie Mini Mafia XXIV
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
I may be a bit bitter about my most recent game, but I still enjoy playing this game. I'm still learning, and I'm looking forward to a chance to rebound . | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Yeah. Got me last game as scum with that but tbh I would have been just about as active day one as town. I still don't really have day one figured out, so don't expect me to go into hyperactive mode for day one this game. In the context of last game, it was used as a last resort which imho is the only time it should be considered. Active discussion of suspects and the cases created day one are far more valuable than trying for a "lucky lynch." And regarding the vote for Shady Sands: If you're going to make a vote try to make at least a few "case points" behind it. Otherwise we're going to have a pretty ridiculous situation where everyone finger points each other over pretty much nothing. Look at Mordanis's (who was town) play in NMM XXII. He started the game with a WIFOM case, and lo and behold was actively accused all game. That suspicion could have been better spent elsewhere, so make your cases thorough before voting please. Lastly: Now would be a great time to discuss policy. The ever-popular "lurker-lynch" policy is a great point of discussion. Also, if there's an experience that comes to mind that you feel we could benefit from via a policy feel free to bring it up . | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Sigh... I really hope this entire day doesn't revolve around you because you got off to a bad start. I feel it's more likely you're an overaggressive townie right now. Seeing as how this is your first game I would recommend you take a look at prior games and how people present "cases" on other people. Try to show us why you feel someone is scummy rather than blindly accusing people. The last thing I want is for us to waste an entire day getting a bad townie lynched. And obligatory game filters: Vanilla townie: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=353315&user=81106 Godfather: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=355874&user=81106 | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Vanilla Townie is NMM XXII Godfather is NMM XXIII | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Game only started about four hours ago... Let's give people a little time before FOSing them for not posting. And I still believe an explanation of some kind is called for for your sudden change of opinion on Solarsail. "It will sort itself out" isn't very transparent... | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
A couple quick comments before bed though... Regarding the suspicions going at Shady: Yes, he may have maintained a high degree of activity with few case points presented by himself, but to his credit he has gotten town talking and meaningful discussion rolling. I'm content to see him "prod" people, as someone needs to do this. And his case on YourHarry is definitely a good start in the right direction. Let's keep in mind there's three scum, not just one. So let's each try to give multiple scum reads where possible instead of tunneling one person at a time. Especially since if everyone tunnels the same guy today, and doesn't discuss other suspects in any detail, we pretty much go into day one all over again (if we mislynch) come day 2. I would have liked, for example, to hear a little more about Shady's "scum reads" on some of the people he's prodded prior and taken a break from, especially Solarsail. And regarding reading our filters from prior games: This is a newbie game, meaning filters are very sparse. A two-game "meta read" is hardly anything to go off of, as you can't honestly expect people to make exactly the same mistakes in their play over and over again. Everyone's gameplay will definitely change in the first few games. It's near-impossible to get a real "play pattern" off like two games, and I don't feel a "meta-read" is really going to be that valuable... If anything, it will make people over-suspicious of people who have a strong scum history, and overly-trusting of those with a strong town history. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Going away from this "troll" playstyle gives us more insight into Solarsail's motivation behind his posts, which is not a good idea from a scum perspective. As scum, he could have hidden behind his troll behavior until getting lynched. If he did a good job of it, he would be so disruptive there would be no meaningful conversation about other scum reads. Further, when the time came to lynch him there would be such consensus that no meaningful leads would come from his lynching. As I've just mentioned, there is a legitimate scum reason for his early postings. But as I've already discussed, I feel his aggressive early stance was most likely town-motivated. This is because in a newbie game, I would not expect such a scum play, but rather for scum to play more "safely." Further, the scum playstyle I've described would be a bit high risk, high reward. The longer a "troll scum" could stay alive, the more derailed the town would be and the better off the scum team would be. However, drawing attention to one's self like Solarsail did so early in the game would definitely put scum in a situation where they might have to bus Solarsail day one, and I can't think of many situations where a voluntary day one scum bus is ever really a good idea. Therefore, even though I could see a "troll scum" motivation, Solarsail's early play felt too aggressive even for that. TL;DR: Solarsail, like anyone else here, could be scum, but my impression of his early play was that he was more likely an aggressive townie. I feel there is more of a plausible town motivation than a scum motivation for him to now change his playstyle to be more constructive. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@Darthpunk: I get that Shady is on your "suspects list." Who else, though, do you feel is scummy? You're definitely not the only person guilty of doing this, and it is pretty early still in the game. But I'm honestly hoping that we don't see a repeat of your relentless tunneling (e.g. Mordanis in XXII) to the point of pretty much excluding reads on anyone else. You should be especially aware of this, given you were scum in that game... @thrawn: Focusing exclusively on archrun isn't going to be very productive right now. If you want to note him as a great choice for a "lurker back-up lynch," then feel free to do so and move on. Scum reads are more important right now than hunting lurkers. You could prod him all day one if you like, but honestly even then he very well might not contribute anything. And you will have wasted a day on a lurker, which makes you look bad because making cases on lurkers is so easy to do and a "safe" scum move. @Golbat, Archrun, Juhyt: Your filters are especially sparse. I'd like to hear more from you. It's not limited to these people, but a cursory glance at their filters shows them to be especially guilty of being "lurky." As a general observation: conversation seems to be dominated right now by only a handful of people. If we want to increase town's chances, everyone (especially the lurky) needs to step up and become more involved. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
@Darthpunk: Re-read your filter right after finishing my post. Looks like you're also pressuring YourHarry. So forget what I said about you tunneling, but it's still something I'm definitely keeping an eye out for. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Tbh, I didn't respond because you haven't given me anything worth responding to. I clearly explained my position on Solar. I even made a follow-up post on my thought process behind my early Solar impression. I'm not going back on anything. Never did I say Solar is "confirmed town." I have only said my read on him is that it's more likely he's town than scum. And the "Sigh..." comment that you're embellishing has nothing to do with me thinking Solar was a "confirmed town." It had to do with frustration with the scenario of us wasting our entire day tunneling and lynching a bad town (which I still believe Solar to be). In said scenario, we go into day two without any information. It's a terrible situation, because it makes day two into another day one with fewer town. So how could I conclude that Solar is probably town? It's called intuition and wit. I strongly encourage you to use some in your future arguments. Now onto my read on you. You've already mentioned you like to tunnel other people, and change your vote on short notice.: On August 15 2012 11:48 YourHarry wrote: My meta: -snip- To summarize my meta, in the first 2.5 games, I am quick to make accusations and switch my vote players with little explanation. I decided to change my meta in game 3 where I drew vanilla townie. I played more conservative to avoid suspicion. This is your fourth game, so my mind is a bit blown trying to conceive how you could think that quickly vote switching between players is strong pro-town play. From how I look at it, you've specifically given us this summary of your own meta to justify doing whoever you want without the transparency the town needs to understand your motivation. You're entitled to your own opinion, and you're more than entitled to vote for me. But tunneling with such a weak case and comments such as the one above are actions that could easily be scum-motivated.: ##FoS: YourHarry I look forward to your reply, but right now... I need to review everyone's filters and make my cases on top scum suspects as promised. Darthpunk is excited to hear them, and I'm not going to let him down  | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
(like latest Batman movie disappointing  )But here's my case. It's going to be short and sweet.: A big part of day one is establishing a good future town atmosphere. To that end, there are several people that are not participating as they should. The guiltiest of these are: Jhuyt and Golbat. Jhuyt: Jhuyt is especially suspicious to me right now. I have read the recent case presented against him by Archrun above. I tend to agree heavily with his first point: about Jhuyt's experience with Solar's post history on TL being consistent with his posting. I'm not ready to call Jhuyt a liar, but claiming Solar is troll/emotional generally on TL requires further explanation. Upon looking through some of his posts, I haven't seen this to be the case. If he is lying, this is enough reason to lynch him. Now the other part of Jhuyt that is scummy is how wishy-washy he is in the limited amount of content he has posted. Let's look at his latest post. In bold are his current "reads" on certain people. Notice how hesitant he is to take a stance on anyone.: On August 15 2012 20:18 Jhuyt wrote: Hmm, you're right, I should try to be more helpful. On Solar: This is just how he is in general from what I've seen on TL, so I don't have anything there. On Shady: Shady tries to control the game, which is an act that I don't often see in normal townies, I've most often encountered it when a scum tries to make everybody think he's the sheriff. It is, however, a game of high risk and relies heavily on the actual sheriff being useless. He might be the sheriff as well, and this is why I think the first day is kinda silly, I don't know what to think solely based on his posts, they seem consistent. I still think that YourHarry is something scummy simply because his posting behavior is strange, on everybody else, I need more evidence before making up my mind. Also, he is currently the winner of the "lurker prize." It is clear from what he has contributed that he has little interest in scum hunting. Therefore: ##Vote: Jyuht Consider it both a vote based on scum behavior and on "lurker policy." In the absence of a stronger scum read my vote goes on him. Golbat: I expected more from you. I know that it really sucks being mislynched day 1, and I haven't ruled out your lurkiness as being from over-reacting to your poor play in XXII by playing almost the exact opposite of how you played then. But you have to step up and continue posting your reads. What got you in trouble then was vote-swapping without giving much explanation. As long as you give an explanation for your reads, don't be afraid to FoS and vote. What you're doing now makes you look just as scummy as how you looked in XXII. ##FoS: Golbat YourHarry: I haven't forgotten about you. However poorly I feel you'd be playing as town by playing the way you are right now, I can't say it would be inconsistent with what I'd expect based on your previous play. I'm not un-FoS-ing you but I'm not ready to vote you as my top scum read right now either. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Just read SolarSail's point on Jhuyt, so he's not a liar. But the remainder of what I said of him still remains, and is enough for my vote to stay on him. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
(mis-spelling): ##Vote: Jhuyt | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 16 2012 19:42 Shady Sands wrote: I am going to say this again very clearly: ## Vote Thrawn2112, ## FoS Ochrow Everyone just do it. My response to this can be summarized in one word: NO. The absolute last thing we need is for everyone to sheep onto a candidate. Everyone who hasn't voted needs to clearly spell out their scum suspects and their reasoning for voting for who they do. Our reasoning for our lynch candidates is just as important (if not more) than who we choose on day one. Sheeping leads to two scenarios: What information do we get on everyone's motivations if we mislynch? Pretty much nothing... Well, everyone voted for this one person because they were told to. It pretty much leads to day two turning into an extended day one. The vote will have meant pretty much nothing, since everyone blindly ganged up on the wrong candidate... If we lynch a scum, then great. Everyone celebrates and forgets how bad sheeping is. But it's just not worth it. Part of day one is encouraging a good town atmosphere, and sheeping is never a part of that. If you're going to try to position yourself as a town leader, then this is not the way to do it. I'd go so far as to give you a "light": ##FoS: Shady Sands Encouraging sheeping is very anti-town. From a town perspective, I think it's very plausible you're a little overexcited about your findings on Thrawn, and what you perceive to be a sure scum day one lynch, and that's why I'd call it a "light FoS." Honestly, though, this post was alarming to me, and looks like a great way to herd town behind a scum agenda. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Btw: Lynch is plurality, which is something I'm actually pretty happy with. It means everyone can vote their own candidate without fear of a no lynch. There's no reason or excuse for people to sheep other people's votes to secure a majority. Everyone can vote their strongest read .Regarding Thrawn: I will look at Shady's case summary points one by one and describe my own assessment. On August 17 2012 01:29 Shady Sands wrote: -snip- Here's the summary of the Thrawn case: 1) Lots of soft-defenses of multiple players through the first half of D1 2) Jumping on the Archrun train with poor justification ("non-contributing lurker") 3) Chainsawing a neutral player (Z-Boson) for attacking the player who he used to justify the Archrun FoS (Ochrow) 4) Continuing to FoS Archrun even after he posted content, sheeping Ochrow, the same player who he was defending against Z-Boson 5) Coordinating *all* his reads with Ochrow (including the ones on YH and Solar, the two other contentious players in the game) 6) Threatening to OMGUS lynch me if I don't reread his defense and reconsider my accusations against him (based off the exact opposite justifications that he used to accuse Archrun) 7) OMGUS voting me anyhow 1) So I see he comments on a few people who came under suspicion early on, including: Solarsail, YourHarry, and Ochrow. He more or less decides all of them are town. I feel he was a little hasty in doing so, but if you look at his wording, it seems his logic (at least for YourHarry) is that he doesn't believe what said person has mentioned so far is scummy. Therefore, he's town... Not the best logic to be following, but I can at least see where he's coming from and understand a (bad) townie motivation. The main post I believe Shady is referencing is below: + Show Spoiler + On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? 2) Yeah, "non-contributing lurker" may not be the best motivation, but Archrun was definitely the guiltiest among them at the beginning, when Thrawn's initial accusation of Archrun was made. 3) This is a pretty weak case point. I see where this came from, and the clarification seems to be justified. Honestly, I don't see any real scumminess from this post. It's down below for everyone's benefit: On August 16 2012 08:29 thrawn2112 wrote: Z-Boson, are you thinking that Ochrow has a read on NH that he isn't explaining? What I got from that quote is that ochrow thinks NH could be town. The opening statement of that quote you referenced was "So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him" followed by "he too is giving off a town feel." I don't understand if you are saying Ochrow has a town or scum read on NH. 4) As best I can tell he jumps on the "lurker lynch train." He then focuses on Archrun for being the worst lurker. He then sees Archrun's first big non-lurker post, and tunnels harder on him after feeling the case is weak. This is certainly not the best way to play town, but I could understand how Thrawn might have done this as town. I in fact did a similar thing when I first started my first game in NMM XXII (as a VT). I said "I'm lynching a lurker." I saw the guiltiest guy of lurking. Then when he posted some stuff and became a little less lurky, I still tunneled in on him because I felt what he said was scummy... 5) I'm not a fan of connection-based theories for scum reads, but there is some uncanny similarities between the two's stances. The post timing (aka exactly the same time) of their similar stances on both YH and solar early game is the most suspicious. I'd dismiss it as two people posting independently, but considering YH "town" was hardly the most mainstream idea. Yet both do it at the same time. They also manage to comment on two of the same people in that post. This strongly implies to me they might be sharing a QT. But I would still consider it possible they are masons. 6 & 7) OMGUS-ing is an emotional response that Thrawn could easily do as either town or scum. This is a null read in my opinion. Another point I noticed reading Shady's earlier posts on this: Regarding asking questions during "slow times": This is generally a neutral read to me motivation-wise. Both as scum and as town Thrawn could be asking questions. Shady's been doing the same kind of thing, so it's a bit ironic to me this was one of his earlier case points against Thrawn. Honestly, I felt some of Thrawn's questions were made with the intention of pushing discussion on his suspects (specifically the YourHarry top read question). This to me is actually a pro-town trait. So in summary, Shady's fifth case point in his summary is most valid, and I could understand people voting Thrawn on that point alone. However, I don't feel any of the others really are enough, even combined, to be voting for Thrawn. I might go so far as to say that Thrawn and Och are more likely masons than scum, since even as a newbie scum it should be pretty obvious that tying each other's viewpoints together as closely as they have is suicidal. However, as masons, they would have no problem coming to a consensus on and aligning their views. In fact, this could be a great thing to do as they can double their influence on town. I love plurality lynch. It means I can keep my vote on Juhyt without dreading a no-lynch, who is still my strongest scum read. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
If it wasn't already obvious to you: waiting until the last minute to cast your vote is very anti-town. You're not going to give us any chance to assess your voting case arguments when you stall like this. Get it on the forum. As town, you shouldn't be afraid of being wrong. And if you're scum, don't worry. Do this again on day 2 and expect an FoS coming your way. @Mkfuba: You might have to settle for casting your vote now, even if your explanation is rushed. You only have ~5 1/2 hours before the deadline... | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
It's plurality lynch, meaning a majority isn't needed to get someone lynched. Vote your best scum read. | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
On August 17 2012 05:34 YourHarry wrote: Whether or not it's a plurality, what is the point of casting a vote on someone who is not going to get majority of the votes? No one has the vast majority of the votes right now. You have no way of knowing your best scum read won't gain enough support before the deadline... | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
You've been fairly quiet. Could you discuss your read on Thrawn in a little more detail? This is the first time you've discussed him sheeping, and I'd be interested to know where you've seen him do this. I wouldn't call everything he's said original, but from what I've seen his vote on Shady was made pretty independently. And what about him specifically makes you think he's town? | ||
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goodkarma
United States1067 Posts
Evidence of a shared QT: First, I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention the evidence that both Thrawn and Ochrow are sharing a QT. Shady has brought this up before, and so have I, but I don’t feel everyone has looked back on their filters to determine how obvious this is. Listed below, for your reference are the two posts that show this most clearly. Notice the timestamps, as they are identical. There is zero chance that one came in and later “copied” the other: On August 16 2012 05:27 Ochrow wrote: My two cents on Shady: My initial inclination when I see somebody being as aggressive as he is, this coming only from live games not forum, is that they are scum. However, every single time that I have been in this sort of situation and gotten a scum vibe from somebody being overly aggressive I have been wrong. So for me that history has me thinking that that Shady is town, just an incredibly aggressive one. However at the same time I think that he may be a bit overly aggressive and reading too much into people's posts, as he has made two rather strong accusations against Solar and JHyut that I feel are more or less unfounded. On Solar: As I originally said I felt that his play was not at all pro-town but, assuming he is telling the truth about the acting and that he didn't just pull it out of his ass, he has really turned around and is very much giving off a townie feel. On YH: So far I haven't really been able to get much of a read on him. While he was posting one-liners at the beginning, as he said he was actually able to get his point across in them, granted that his point wasn't always a great one to get across (ie Oh I have a secret read but I'm not sharing it). But since his explanation, which to me seems to be entirely understandable, he too is giving off a town feel. As for any reads I have, in most of the games I've played there has been at least one scum that was just purely a lurker, and as such I get a bit of a scum feeling from Archrun. He has only three posts all only a few sentences, long enough to not be pointed out as one-liners but only just. I guess I also get suspicious of any first post that just focuses on O hai thar I'm a townie yay killing scum. While I know everybody is trying to prove themselves as town I just get bad feelings when the substance of somebody's post is: On top of that in his three posts he doesn't get into what he thinks about who might be scum but is just theorizing or throwing out a soft defense. I may be totally off on here but until he posts a bit more or contributes something of substance I am going to throw out ##FoS Archrun As per Solar's question I hope this helps, and if there was any curiosity about the reasoning behind my general consensus post, it seemed like a lot of people were in more or less violent agreement over the Solar issue so I wanted to throw out my understanding of events in the hope that it might lead to shorter and/or fewer posts beating that dead horse. On August 16 2012 05:27 thrawn2112 wrote: Policy? A few people started talking about policy at the beginning and we never actually came to an agreement on that because of solar's trolling. Can we say whether or not we are going to FOS lurkers? Of course this doesnt not mean an automatic lynching, but it will help to keep everyone posting so that we can all get better reads. My vote is that yes, this policy should be put in effect, even though we have almost wasted the opportunity to do so. Concerning the YH topic: 3 possibilities immediately come to mind: One, that YH is being honest about him thinking that solar and gk are masons. That will explain basically all of his scummy sounding posting earlier in the game. Two, that he and solar are masons. This would explain his strong conviction that solar is town, and could also explain why he posted like he had information to hide. Three, YH and solar, or maybe just YH is scum. This would also account for the cryptic way he was posting. The only part that I'm having trouble with, is that 4 minutes after voting for me for being suspicious of shady, he unvoted me and changed his vote to solar. 21 minutes later is when according to him, he came up with his 'solar as mason' theory and unvoted again. So if YH is scum and solar is scum, why would YH ever vote for solar in the first place? It could be a sneaky manipulation but i doubt that is the case. This makes me believe that no, YH and solar cannot BOTH be scum. YH's quick changing of votes is what I'm currently looking at to see if I can make any reads as far as YH is concerned. At this point I think YH's alliance hinges on whether or not you believe his story about suspecting solar and gk of being masons. At one point in the game I was willing to indulge the thought that YH and solar were masons based off a weak read I was making, (the extra information YH was hinting at) so it is easy for me to believe that YH did the same. YH, for now I believe your story and do not think either you or solar are scum. Solarsail Just to confirm what I'm thinking, do we all trust solarsail's account of his first few posts, that he was trolling to get responses? I'm assuming we all do? Myself, I believe him. I don't think a player who posts like he initially posted would be able to post how he is posting now unless they were trolling. Initially he was the most scummy player, but at that point in the game less than half the players had even posted. As time went on I began to think that no he's not scum, but he's a town player who just doesn't understand what the tone of this game is supposed to be. Honestly solar you were posting like you had just come in from a sc2 tournament thread, it was very hard to know what to make of that. IMO you actually caused more harm than if you would have allowed the discussion to remain on policy talk. The first few pages of posting were very chaotic and full of people making baseless accusations set by the tone of how you chose to play the game. Yes, I do think that myself and maybe some other people are able to make reads off the situation you created, but I think that those reads could have come regardless of your trolling. mkfuba07, after reading my post do you agree with my claim that YH is town? If not, why not? Now look also at the nature of the posts. What is discussed is almost identical. Both talk about Solarsail, and both conclude that he is not currently suspicious. Both also conclude that YourHarry is town. This point should bring up red flags on everyone’s radars, as this is simply not the prevailing viewpoint of the thread at the time, and they both give pretty weak reasoning for their conclusion. Both also discuss policy lurker lynching. Here, Ochrow FoS’s Archrun (in the same post), and thrawn FoS’s Archrun about two hours later. What are the odds that that many different topics were discussed by two people randomly at the exact same time without the help of a QT? I’d say pretty much none. As I originally posted, though, I felt that two scum associating themselves this closely was nearly suicidal. I suspected them to be masons. But neither have come forward with such a claim, even as Thrawn was nearly lynched day one. Additionally, neither of them have been interested in scum-hunting, spending much of their energies with wishy-washy “I don’t know” posts on others’ reads and pursuing the lurker lynch of Archrun. I will lay this out in my posts against each candidate below: Case against Thrawn: So the underlying theme here is that none of these three is interested in scum-hunting. Let’s summarize Thrawn’s posting history, in chronological order: -Wastes a bunch of time discussing the possibility of an SK -dismisses case on solarsail as emotional response either town or scum could do -casts light suspicion on YourHarry -Summarizes stance on solarsail, magically decides YourHarry is now town, and starts “lurker lynch” policy -Tunnels Archrun -OMGUS votes Shady That pretty much sums up his play to date. The only real stances I’ve gotten from his play so far: -YourHarry is town because his mason case was “believable.” He has to date not said anything to address the scum behavior others have pointed out in YourHarry’s play. This is a weak claim with very little to back it up. I find it interesting that he doesn’t go so far as to determine Solar to be town by the same logic. Most players would say YourHarry is a neutral read by Thrawn’s logic, as believing YourHarry’s mason case was genuinely made does not in any way support that YourHarry’s case was made with a town motivation in the first place. He also has mentioned his FOS on YourHarry was hastily made, which is true. It didn’t really feel like he had any conviction behind it, and it feels like two scum trying to distance themselves. I originally said that he was thinking in binary. “If I can’t confirm YourHarry is scum, then he’s town.” But looking at how wishy-washy he’s been on SolarSail, this isn’t the case. This was a deliberate choice, and why I believe scum Thrawn is covering for scum YourHarry here. Regarding Ochrow: His posting history is much more straightforward, as he himself has been semi-lurky: -Take’s Thrawn’s same stances on YourHarry, SolarSail, and policy lurker lynching. -pursues Archrun aggressively on “lurker policy.” Tunnels him more after his weak case. -That’s pretty much it. What more can I say here? Ochrow is obviously not interested in active scum hunting. He has set out on a policy lurker lynch. Like Thrawn, he has declared YourHarry to have a “town feel” with little explanation. He goes after Archrun and tunnels him… Below is the quote, though, that condemns him as scum: On August 17 2012 05:54 Ochrow wrote: -snip- On Thrawn: I really can't get a read on Thrawn. To be honest when I first read Shady's post I almost instantly began to feel that Thrawn was scum but after reading his defense I do not think that he is. But I will say that I find him a bit too sheepish. It seems to me that anytime he a read that might be right he just jumps on the bandwagon without posting much of anything different unless heavily prodded, so I feel that this is something we need to look out for because it does feel somewhat scummy. On the case against Thrawn and I: I feel like once again Shady is reading too much into things. As far as the combined case claiming that we are both scum and are working together goes it is based almost entirely off of the timing of our post and the fact that Thrawn copied what I said. However, saying that we are obviously working together makes no sense when it is based purely off of the fact that the second person, in this case Thrawn, merely rewords a public post that I made. I can understand why you would be a bit suspicious, but by your logic one scum could just go around copying and rewording the posts of every person in the game and would therefore have to be in secret contact with every single one of them. The fact of the matter is that there was no insider information that was shared all that happened was that Thrawn piggybacked on somebody else's post and just agree with them. As for my fair and balanced posts or however it was that Shady described them, I simply have not been able to divine that much from what most people are saying, though I will admit to being a timid poster. But at the moment I don't feel I have solid reads on pretty much anyone and so the result of that is I try not to alienate people, though I understand why Shady would be suspicious of that because his goal seems to be to piss off everybody and alienate them all. On YourHarry: As far as the stuff from early on goes I believe his explanation in that he had a mason misread and I think that was it, and as I said before while he was posting very short messages he really didn't appear to have much to say outside of those short messages, but going by his posting history it looks like as soon as he started to get actual reads he began to post them. I feel that his swingyness is suspicious and that his posts haven't been great, particularly the case against GK, but I don't really get a scum read from him. -snip- As you can see, he claims that Thrawn “copies him.” This is literally impossible as their post that was similar was posted at the exact same time. In other words, Ochrow is lying. He also makes a few interesting points here about how YourHarry is still not scum, and also some wishy-washy stuff (that I have snipped out for clarity… I meant to put it back in but I have 8 mins to post this look at time stamp you can find the rest sorry guys…) about how he doesn’t think Shady is scum but wouldn’t mind voting him anyway. He also comments on a few lurkers, which is a pretty value-less thing that is easy for scum to do. In other words, he is not actively involved in the scum hunting. But let me say this again, as it’s the most damning evidence against Ochrow: OCHROW LIED TO US!!!!!!!!! There is no doubt in my mind at this point that both Ochrow and Thrawn are scum. They associated with each other far too closely to not have shared a QT. On top of that instead of coming clean about it (or just not saying anything), as I’d suspect masons would, they turn around and lie about it to try to cover it up! ##FoS: Thrawn ##FoS: Ochrow Now onto YourHarry: I have already said how wishy-washy he’s been with his voting. He will flash change vote people on a whim. His play is so sporadic (and imho terrible) that it’s hard to peg him as either scum or a really bad town. However, looking at his latest vote flip fiasco, I can safely say that he is probably the third scum. He switches to Shady with only a few minutes left in the day to go, after taking the same anti-Archrun stance that both Thrawn and Ochrow took. He goes on to discuss his reasoning for doing so.: On August 17 2012 14:11 YourHarry wrote: I have additional evidence why I think Thrawn is town, which confirm my scum read on Archrun. Minutes before the deadline the vote count was tied between Shady and Thrawn, with four votes each. Unless three scums were all already voting for ShadySands, if Thrawn is indeed scum, one of his scum partners would have tried to move his vote to ShadySands. While Shady was set to be lynched because he was the first player to receive 4 votes, it would have been still dangerous from scum's perspective because all it takes is one townie to switch his vote to Thrawn and the scum would be lynched. But this did not happen, which is consistent with Thrawn being town. Two possible scenarios that counter this argument are that: 1) Scums were simply not around to make last minute changes in this vote. This seems possible because it was pretty close to the deadline when I changed my vote from Shady to Archrun and Golbat placed his vote on Thrawn. This is not completely out of the question, but A) considering that scums still had one hour window to make the move and B) that scum Thrawn means that his scum partners would have been very well aware that Thrawn was a strong lynch candidate (based on discussion that happened hours prior to the deadline), I suspect that Tharwn's scum teammates would have been watching things closely. 2) Thrawn's scum partners were too hesitant to switch their votes, in fear that it would make them suspicious. This is possible, but maybe it would not have been too difficult to fabricate some wishy-washy with reasons for change in opinion. And I do realize that by my own analysis, my last minute switch in voting from Archrun to Shady could make me suspicious... But at this point, my scum reads were Archrun > Shady > Thrawn. So when it looked like Archrun lynch seemed impossible, I wanted to make sure Archrun lynch over Thrawn lynch happens. But in summary, until I changed my vote from Archrun to Shady, which happened like 2 minutes before the deadline, the scums had some window of opportunity to switch their votes to Shady (unless all three were already voting for Shady) in order to provide a some protection against last minutes switch of votes to their scum partner Thrawn. This is not a fool-proof evidence, as there are possible exceptions listed above 1) and 2) but I think this should render additional evidence that Thrawn is town (and thus both Thrawn and Shady are town) which would confirm my suspicion that Archrun is attempting to benefit from mislynching two townies. So, in other words, he knows exactly how his vote change looks, and now he’s trying to do some “damage control” by being the first to bring it up. What YourHarry doesn’t mention here is how difficult it would be for mafia to come back from a day one lynch when they’ve connected themselves together so neatly. Securing the Shady lynch day one wasn’t “optional,” it was mandatory to secure any chance of a mafia victory. And if by YourHarry’s logic, wouldn’t it be a good thing if someone last minute switched? Because then we’d know for sure who one of our scum is. Especially when the only person you feel is “strong town” (Thrawn) isn’t on track to be lynched. I have no problem using YourHarry’s logic here, as it’s the first thing he’s said that makes sense to me. YourHarry switched his vote to Shady for the reasons he’s already highlighted. Because if Thrawn went down day one mafia’s winning chances would go down substantially. Mafia couldn’t afford Thrawn going down, so YourHarry last minute switched to secure the lynch. And looking at how Thrawn and Ochrow both think YourHarry has a “townie feel” when no one else does makes YourHarry stick out even more. So that sums up my case. I hope you all enjoyed it . If before now you were to tell me I could get all three scum pegged in one day like this, I would never have believed you. With this evidence, I am confident thrawn, Ochrow, and YourHarry are all but “confirmed scum.” GG. | ||
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