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Newbie Mini Mafia VII

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 02 2012 00:17 GMT
#10
First to die in Newbie VI. Can I join as soon as I'm out of another game? If so...

/in

This would make this my second game ever, by the way.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 02 2012 17:10 GMT
#26
Good morning everyone. Hopefully we can track those scum down right quick.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 02 2012 21:07 GMT
#33
Sad, that's always the way it works Nova. Make a masterpiece, it gets deleted, make a summary.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 03 2012 19:28 GMT
#51
I have no suspicions thus far. The thread is too inactive to start to get any information. Plus, correct day one reads are quite a rarity anyway. Still, I would like to lynch for information as opposed to lurkers. Day one lurkers don't really tell us too much, in my opinion. At the same time, I would like to hear from everyone this day or I might get more suspicious of them on day two.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 04 2012 16:54 GMT
#98
Yes, I'll hear what he has to say and then cast my vote. He's already had enough of a bandwagon that we don't need to all hop on him immediately. Hopefully he arrives and responds, as it is a completely random vote so far and I'd hate to vote a blue.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 04 2012 19:20 GMT
#110
##Vote: Lyter

By not responding he's really not adding anything to this game at all. May as well throw the vote in on him and see how it goes.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 04 2012 19:22 GMT
#115
Yes I'll be keeping up before the deadline for sure.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 04 2012 20:23 GMT
#120
Such a quiet day one. I am going to agree with Lyter that Gossemerr did manage to contradict himself already by lynching a lurker straight after saying he didn't want to lynch a lurker. Pretty strange.

##Unvote
##Vote: Gossemerr
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 04 2012 21:46 GMT
#144
There's not enough evidence to do one thing over another at this point. After today's lynching and the night actions we'll actually have something to work with. I have no reason to believe anyone is town over mafia at this point. You're probably right - chances are that he was in fact just trying to kick some conversation up. And it did work.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 04 2012 22:03 GMT
#147
Unfortunate, but not unexpected. There was a 7/9 chance of him being a townie. This was such a bandwagon lynch, I'm not sure how much information we can really take out of this. The only potential thing I can think of is that the convenience of Lyter being a lurker might've made him a prime target for Gossemerr if he were mafia to randomly call out. Although drawing attention to himself and getting conversation started isn't the way a mafia would want to behave. Maybe we'll get a night read from someone.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 05 2012 00:24 GMT
#157
Era's pretty accusatory. But who isn't day one? He jumped off the bandwagon against Lyter which I thought was the right thing to do. So far I don't think he's very likely to be mafia, but he hasn't said much.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 05 2012 17:24 GMT
#168
As I saw it, the main reason we were voting for Lyter to begin with was to apply pressure and get him to post. It was successful and he did post and he defended himself, so there was really no reason to continue voting for him since he really didn't say anything scummy at all. Therefore, both votes did not really have EQUAL value anymore. I would have liked for Gossemerr to defend himself at that point and get the conversation going, but pretty much everyone either got set on their original Lyter vote for whatever reason or just didn't show up/discuss at all before the deadline. It was an unfortunately inactive time which cost us a lack of additional information in my opinion.

DId you guys really jump on the Lyter bandwagon intending to go all the way and lynch him no matter what? I don't see what the advantage of doing that could possibly be. There's a difference between pressure moves and kill moves.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 05 2012 20:11 GMT
#176
We weren't looking for him to fully remove all possibility of him being mafia. We were looking for him to speak. To make a case. SOME case. There's no way for him to make a strong case for himself just like we can't make a strong case AGAINST him. What would you have liked him to do to absolve himself of all wrongdoing?
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 05 2012 22:21 GMT
#212
Man that's pretty lucky by mafia to get the jailkeeper. I have an event this evening, but I'll post an analysis of some kind tonight in 4 or 5 hours.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 06 2012 22:58 GMT
#226
Sorry about the delay on this post. My local Verizon decided to give out last night and put a damper on my plans for the evening. Anyway, my analysis thus far is as follows.

4. Gossemerr
Gossemerr started out not wanting to lynch a lurker. But as the inactivity of the day went on, he felt a need to get some activity going, so he voted for a lurker. I now see this not as a contradiction, but just as annoyance that no one was posting anything. This has been a rather lurky bunch, so I don't blame him. It is confusing however that he didn't change his vote once Lyter replied, but he claims being unavailable. I agree with his decision to apply some pressure... and it is even more understandable that he didn't change his vote since now that I remember it would have made him get voted off. I am leaning towards Townie for Gossemerr.

---------
5. BlueyD
BlueyD is really going after Gossemerr for no particular reason. I personally voted Gossemerr day one because of the mild contradiction he made and Lyter's defense of himself. It was the only other place I could really go. But then after that and rethinking about it, Gossemerr made a lot more sense to me and there was no major contradiction in his decision making. BlueyD has no such opinion and immediately sets his sights on Gossemerr, writing out an attack against him. I'm not sure why this attack is necessary, because there was really no scum behavior from Gossemerr. You seem awfully focused on someone who took the lead in getting information for us. You poke in at me for changing my vote on day one. Doesn't really make sense for you to be suspicious of me for it, but I guess that's the nature of the game. I feel like your posts are over accusatory at this point with very little information to go by. This makes me suspicious of you.

------------
6.LazinCajun
I can't get too much of a read on LazinCajun because he came late to the game and has a very short filter. At the same time, he's mostly staying out of things. He's making some posts here and there replying to things, but none of them have any real content. He's basically just saying over and over again that he has no opinion. I would really like to hear what he has to say based on looking through peoples' filters. As such, I can just say that I think he is suspiciously laying low.

------
7. Era
Era posts very little content for awhile, and then goes into what is in my opinion a shoddy argument against BlueyD. I think that you can make an argument against BlueyD, but I don't think his post really has anything meaningful to say. I agree that it's strange to be joking and such like he is, but I dont' see why he shouldn't. People can have whatever flavor they want really and we can't really get a read from the fact that he's having a little fun with his posts. Most of the argument has to do with his flavor, but he also claims a contradiction when BlueyD talks about threatening based on meta being difficult in a newbie game. It makes sense because there's either 1. No history to work with, or 2. Not enough experience to recognize behaviors as they apply to the game. I don't think era is necessarily scummy, but his posts really don't seem to have too much meaning outside of some little tidbits here and there.

--------
8. Bocki
He was practically completely silent day one, letting people find their own way to a green and then jumping on the bandwagon as it came up. Everything is "okay, I agree" for whatever case people are making up until it's against him. If he continues to mostly just jump on bandwagons, I will get more suspicious. As of right now, I am in the middle on Bocky.

-------------
9. Nova_Terra
By far the most active poster who seems to spend a bit too much time critisizing the style of responses rather than providing meaningful analysis of the responses. At the same time, he does provide lots of analysis and keeps the conversation going quite effectively. I would be sad to see him lynched purely on the basis that he keeps things moving. Plus, I don't think his efforts to draw attention to himself and expose so many other people are very scummy. I think Nova is pretty town at this point.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 07 2012 14:59 GMT
#242
In terms of voting connections, the times I've posted closely to others are merely a coincidence of when I've refreshed the thread. If I were mafia, would I not seek to delay and prevent such connections because of arguments like these coming up? Perhaps I would avoid sharing a vote with the partner in crime altogether if enough people jumped on the bandwagon.

Either way, I'm not sure how much I'll be able to post close to the deadline today unfortunately, but I will try to use my phone to do so. Just to make sure that I get a vote in, I will cast a vote for BlueyD in the meantime, but this does not mean that he is my set-in-stone read for this voting period nor does it mean I am totally convinced his being scum. I intend to keep up and potentially change if the need arises. I simply need to go with my strongest read for the time being to make sure I'm not modkilled.

##Vote: BlueyD
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 07 2012 16:47 GMT
#255
On April 08 2012 01:20 Bocki wrote:
Hmm.. era voting for BlueyD.. that is strange.. maybe its scenario 3?

I'm not convinced that era is not guilty but even less convinced that era is not guilty.

My vote stays.


I sure hope it's not scenario 3 as I am also voting for BlueyD. Seems like it'd be poor play to vote for your teammate early unless it's late in the game the person being voted for has been established as 100% scum.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 08 2012 16:10 GMT
#300
Another town lynched. Things are looking pretty hairy for the Town, but we can still take it. I'm interested to see who the Mafia will choose to shoot night 2.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 09 2012 02:04 GMT
#326
I don't believe BlueyD to be mafia. I strongly disagree with bandwagoning onto him immediately. Instead, I would question the motives behind Bocki and LazinCajun INSTANTLY throwing down votes on BlueyD. For the time being I am going to focus my analysis on the two of them and see what I can come up with. AT LEAST one of them is 100% mafia in my opinion. I'll post more details later, but I really wanted to get this out there that I think those two should be the focus of our investigation for day 3.
Therapist.
Profile Joined January 2009
United States207 Posts
April 09 2012 18:58 GMT
#352
Let me preface this post by stating that we are in Lynch or Lose. People who are throwing their votes in without a second thought with no convincing necessary are misinformed. This is the point where we absolutely must try as hard as possible to get an accurate mafia read. Instantly jumping on a bandwagon because someone made a case you think to be convincing is misinformed. Instead, let me recommend that we meet a case that someone proposes and try to either make it stronger or debunk it. None of this "Glad we agree, vote this person!" stuff.

Now let's think about this for just a moment. It's LYLO for the town. All the votes go on me. Everyone agrees without a second thought. Whoever is in the mafia feels no need to defend me, because if the lynch on me goes through, the game is over and mafia wins.

BlueyD, shame on you for immediately dropping your strong case against Bocki and going for me. Bluey is one of my highest town reads for the moment, so I urge him especially to take a second look and re-analyze the situation.

From my point of view, 2 of these 3 are definitely mafia. 100% no doubt in my mind it is 2 out these three: Bocki, LazinCajun, and NovaTerra. Operating from this perspective, we see that Bocki doesn't take much to be convinced to change his vote. He votes for BlueyD from the start, which is one of my strongest town reads. Then, with no additional information offerred or even thinking of a possibility that I'm not scum, Bocki changes his vote to me as soon as someone makes a case against me. I believe this to be in expectation of the bandwagon that followed against me, planning to keep the momentum in his favor against me. Bocki is my strongest scum read for this game.

Lazin seems the most intent on actually rooting out the mafia, and his focus on Bocki rather than on BlueyD or myself is a lot of proof of this from my standpoint of confidence in BlueyD and confidence in myself. I like that Lazin's eye is on Bocki through all of this and he agrees that voting on someone like me to root out a response is the right way to do it. I believe him to be the most willing to change his vote and be convinced that someone is mafia. Out of my 3 mafia reads, Lazin is the most likely to be town.

That brings us to NovaTerra. He posts a huge amount of fluff in the thread. He mostly spends his time calling out other peoples' arguments without offering any counter argument of his own. He just lets people know what's wrong with their argument. The two times he has posted a long analysis on somebody, they have both been town. Earlier in the thread, he made a long post against era, going post by post and trying to make each of his posts sound as mafia as possible. Now, he's come back with a long post against me saying that I am scum. I know myself to be town, so this second long post against a town member leads me to believe he already knows I'm town. Him immediately getting a bandwagon going instead of looking for some discussion also shows this to me. I believe NovaTerra to be the second scum over Lazin at this point.

--------------

Anyway, as to NovaTerra's argument... he starts off focused on the inactivity. He doesn't even entertain the possibility that there is a reason for laying low besides being mafia. He jumps right on the inactivity as a certain mafia read and in fact dedicates half his long post to talking about my inactivity. You could've justified voting me based on inactivity earlier in the game as you could say that I "wasn't adding much to the game." But at this point, it's easy to call out a lurker as mafia and get them lynched based on the limited information that has been brought out on your target.

He calls me out a lot in this post as well for supposed contradictions. I change my mind about BlueyD and all of a sudden that's a major contradiction and I'm scum? No, I changed my mind about BlueyD and choose to focus my investigation elsewhere. Changing one's mind doesn't make one scum, it makes one intelligent. You have to look at the game as it develops and see what's really going on. And try to look past peoples' posts and speculate reasons for them playing as they do. You all scream MAFIA, but that's not the only reason someone would want to sit back.
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