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As of today, seventy-two players have played at least one game in Proleague. Their successes and failures range all the way from KT Rolster's Flash, with thirteen wins in thirteen games, to Samsung KHAN's Juni, who was brought on to play one game and lost so badly even Coach January hasn't sent him out again.
While not purporting to represent authentically how well or badly a player is playing, I did fiddle around until I found a basic calculation to sort unequal records. It's got weaknesses: a loss with no offsetting wins simply isn't counted, so Juni and Grape (0-4) end up with the same goose-egg (then again, Grape's better than Juni). But at the top I think it does a decent job sorting out players, at least by actual wins and losses if not skill. The top 18:
1. Flash (KT), 13.00 (13-0) 2. Fantasy (SKT), 9.31 (11-2) 3. Neo.G_Soulkey (Stars), 8.64 (11-3) 4. Stork (KHAN), 7.56 (11-5) 5. Jaedong (T8), 6.67 (10-5) 6. Bisu (SKT), 5.88 (10-7) 7. Stats (KT), 5.79 (9-5) 8. BaBy (T8), 5.33 (8-4) 9. BeSt (SKT), 5.06 (9-7) 10. Last (STX), 4.92 (8-5) 11. Leta (CJ), 4.90 (7-3) 12. TurN (KHAN), 4.17 (5-1) 12. Dear (STX), 4. 17 (5-1) 14. EffOrt (CJ), 4.08 (7-5) 14. JangBi (KHAN), 4.08 (7-5) 16. Brave (KHAN), 4.00 (6-3) 16. Calm (STX), 4.00 (6-3) 18. Crazy-Hydra (KT), 3.57 (5-2)
I realize 18 is a sort of odd number. It's (neatly) 25% of the 72 I mentioned up at the top of the post, but I attach no real importance to that curiosity. The real point is that everyone below CH is either short on wins or winning percentage to keep up. A few games, and some of the bottom of this list and the top of the rest could trade places. As may be.
The important point to this topic is noting who's at the top, however they got there. Breaking it down by team:
Air Force ACE: 0 ( Kal ranks #t19 with a 6-5 record.) Woongjin Stars: 1 (#3 Neo.G_Soulkey. Stars' other stars are clustered in the 20-25 area.) CJ Entus 2 (#11 Leta, #14 EffOrt. Other Entusmen are within shouting distance: Hydra (#t19) and Movie (#t26).) Team 8 2 (#5 Jaedong, #8 BaBy. Jaehoon is #23. The others...) STX SouL 3 (#10 Last, #13 Dear, #17 Calm.) KT Rolster 3 (#1 Flash, #7 Stats, #18 Crazy-Hydra. Wooki is #24.) SK Telecom t1 3 (#2 Fantasy, #6 Bisu, #9 BeSt. SKT's 4th best, n.Die_soO, doesn't show up until #t30.) Samsung KHAN 4 (#4 Stork, #12 TurN, #t14 JangBi, #t16 Brave. Reality is tied at 26th with Movie.)
That Samsung KHAN is the deepest team in Proleague should come as no surprise. Last year's campaign featured somewhere between two and four impressive rookies, depending on your impressions of TurN, Grape, Brave, and Reality. With an extra year of playing time, and smart additions of Shine and RorO to finally bolster their Zerg line, KHAN should have been among the favorites to take it all - as they have amply demonstrated by now by vaulting to the top of the league, hammering previous leaders KT Rolster twice in two weeks.
Of those not quite at that level, KT Rolster and SK Telecom T1 follow them closely in depth and in the standings. In fact, while the dreaded three-headed dragon of SKT is well-known and maybe even over-rated, KT's success deserves a notice.
Compare KT to Woongjin. If you asked the average Brood War fan - certainly before the season, but maybe even now - which was the deeper team, you would get about 70% saying Woongjin, and the number would be higher except KT has a lot of fans. But in reality, so far KT's the one putting up solid results across the board - Crazy-Hydra's 5-2 would be a nice addition to Woongjin's record if Stars had kept him - and Woongjin is, essentially, barely hanging on behind an all-star performance from their newest ace, Neo.G_Soulkey.
The ace match may have gone, but I'm inclined to think that it's not a coincidence the top four teams right now are the four teams with the four best players in the game, by record: Flash, fantasy, Soulkey, and Stork.
Of course, what you do with your good players also matters: for instance, STX's initially apparent depth is belied by their placement - all at the bottom of the good end - and the utter lack of anything behind those three. Bogus is now 5-8 on the year; hyvaa is somehow STX's 5th, and is 4-6.
I said at the beginning my calculation doesn't sort out losing players if all they do is lose: however, by comparing the number for the whole team to the numbers put up by each player, we can see, team by team, which one's doing the best with what they have:
Flash puts KT way out in front, but continued play with poor results from Mind, HoeJJa, and Action is hurting them. Of course, the Proleague season is a marathon, and none of those three are scrubs, and KT *does* need a fifth player sometimes. So long-term it's not a bad thing. But the idea that Flash is being let down by his teammates persists because it is still a real thing. It's just that now it's the tail end of the order that's weak, not the #3 spot (or #2 if Lux was off doing sinister things that week).
We should also be developing the idea that Calm (or maybe Last?) simply doesn't have a team behind him. STX's results compared to its best players are actually worse than KT's, which is depressing: STX ought to be in contention, but just can't get there. One wonders what KHAN's or SKT's coaches could do with this group.
On the other end of the spectrum, Woongjin and CJ - two teams with assumed star power but mediocre results - are actually showing almost as well as they could be. In Woongjin's case, this is because they have nobody else to play - Team Eight shows the same pattern. In CJ's case, it seems to be more that all of their players are identical pretty good automatons, with better or worse luck as may be.
(It's worth nothing that even though I've talked up the differences, they may not be that significant: the worst team by this comparison (STX) still is playing at 82% of their players' raw value; the best (Woongjin) only has 92%. Does that 10% matter?
Also worth noting: I'm tracking games only, here, so good or bad luck with 3-2 matches shifts teams *coughkhancough* in the standings while that doesn't necessarily match the overall game records.)
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very nice analysis, thanks ^_^
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I said that KT has the deeper team at the beginning of the season and I have a Woongjin tag? O.o? I think the notion that KT is shallow came from anti-fans who basically recycled the whole lolKTFlash idea.
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zOmGdz liek plz sp0ilar diZ plXz
Honeztly, I have too much I want to zay about diz...
User was temp banned for this post.
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I think we should gimp the statistics by only looking at the top 10 because that's a neat number and not at all because it'd make SKT look like the powerhouse it should be.
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i think we all knew khan was the deepest team without any analysis at all
that being said, cool analysis, m8
i always enjoy your reports
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Very interesting stats. I think it would be worth applying these methods to some older seasons. See if your analysis really does show a difference in the gap between player performance and team performance with an ace match or without. Also, it would be good to have this with a larger data set.
I always wondered, and you briefly mention it, if there is a sort of cut off on "useful" player skill. There is the sense that having good players improves your team, but realistically, a team with a few stars and lots of scrubs will win a few matches while a team with several average players has a decent chance on losing every match in a close fashion. STX has a pretty reasonable line up but does poorly in overall score; perhaps see if the standard deviation of the player "skill" has any correlation with the team standing. Intuitively, it seems that the teams with a nice sized std dev will be the ones like KT. On the other hand, a huge std. dev. could be a team like woongjin while a small std. dev. could be stx. Both of these teams may use their players effectively and still fail either because of the failure of most players to play up to the standards of the ace or the failure of all players to win much despite all being reasonably skilled.
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Woohoo, KHAN! Nice analysis. I know the results have to rank the players in a particular order... but I honest think every team is "deep" enough in the Bo5 format (yes, even ACE) to take a game away from another team in legitimate fashion. Bo7, and things change. We'll have to wait until the playoffs to see how these teams fair in Bo7, I guess.
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too bad Jaedong is fighting alone for team 8 in the top 10.
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I agree Khan is probably the deepest team, but technically it should be CJ if you look at the lineups. They just botch their picks so much and everybody on there is slumping.
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On February 23 2012 07:54 XenOsky- wrote: too bad Jaedong is fighting alone for team 8 in the top 10. Baby?
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United States10026 Posts
KT!!!
On paper, CJ is actually the deepest team, followed by Khan and SKT. However, because for some reason CJ's players are beginning to have slumps...
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"Deepness" is a hard thing to asses. The issue with this method is that if a team has some good players, then we don't get to see much of the others. Maybe skyhigh, bbyong, miso, and snow are just as good as effort or hydra, but they just never get a chance to start. That would make CJ the deepest by far. I think the bast way is to look at OSL/MSL qualifiers would paint a better picture, but that has problems too.
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SKT/Cj has the deepest team but their poor stats hasn't shone it imo.
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Guys, call it depth instead of "deepness" xd Deepness just sounds weird
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Nice analysis!
I hope Samsung can keep it together. Their dismantling by CJ last week was depressing -_-
I had a strange dream last night that Flash lost a game...I had to check TLPD to make sure lol.
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On February 23 2012 08:43 SkimGuy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 23 2012 07:54 XenOsky- wrote: too bad Jaedong is fighting alone for team 8 in the top 10. Baby?
ahhh u're right... thanks for the correction.
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On February 23 2012 09:00 hacklebeast wrote: "Deepness" is a hard thing to asses. The issue with this method is that if a team has some good players, then we don't get to see much of the others. Maybe skyhigh, bbyong, miso, and snow are just as good as effort or hydra, but they just never get a chance to start. That would make CJ the deepest by far. I think the bast way is to look at OSL/MSL qualifiers would paint a better picture, but that has problems too.
Not to mention that judging only by their performance this PL means that a small bad streak (even 2-3 games) can influence the rankings a lot. Still really interesting to see though, hoping for Zero to actually start winning games sometime in the future >_>.
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CJ doing way worse than I thought they would be before this year ;_;
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