EPT
)Good lynch on Sheth - i just can't picture the manner bear being scum though :p
Newbie Mini Mafia II
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bkrow
Australia8532 Posts
)Good lynch on Sheth - i just can't picture the manner bear being scum though :p | ||
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bkrow
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bkrow
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Sorry if i am rehashing old stuff i am just catching up still; i think we should be looking at: a) people who were hesitant to vote Sheth b) those who tried to offer alternate targets but once Sheth came up jumped on the "bandwagon" and c) the lurkers who make me angry | ||
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I would love to hear from Paperscraps after he has caught up on the thread | ||
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On January 09 2012 13:18 CatsnHats wrote: Sounds alot like the guy you replaced, AnxiousHippo.... I can't really speak for my predecessor but i think the fact that he got replaced illustrates his involvement with the game and provides an explanation for his inactivity. As for the dodging questions - well again, if he was inactive enough to get replaced then i doubt he was actively dodging questions - if he was, well then lol he is bad. I looked through Xeris' filter - all 3 (?) posts? Lurkers are particularly dangerous not only because they add nothing, but they are just so hard to read as there is nothing to go off. Also because this is a mini mafia, a mislynch on a lurker can do some damage. I say we place FoS on Xeris (his replacement) and at the very least it will give him a chance to explain himself. For now i see Xeris as a more viable target based on Sheth's comments - but then again, to come out in such defence of a particular person when you are scum is basically tying your fates, so this may have been Sheth's attempt to latch onto a townie and at least secure some result if he was lynched. | ||
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On January 10 2012 10:31 Probulous wrote: Re: Roleblock I am going to assume that no-one has been roleblocked for the past two nights. Why? Well we are in one of the following situations
WIFOM, I know but I think it is much more likely that scum would use everything in their power to deny us information. Given we have two nights with no roleblock and we have lynched a scum I think there is no roleblocker in this setup. That gives one of three situations
I just wanted to be sure that my assumptions were correct, hence the question regarding roleblock. THERE IS NO REASON FOR A BLUE, IF WE HAVE ONE, TO CLAIM. DO NOT CLAIM For those unaware, I believe you are told whether you have been roleblocked regardless of whether you have a role or not. There is no reason to claim you are correct; however if there is a DT in the mix, things can get complicated. I can explain a method of using a DT effectively that i have witnessed before if people are interested. Anyway, BL jitsu - you will be missed. I am reading through Cats' and Jitsu's filter; mainly to try get a read on Cats and then see if Jitsu's claims line up with that reading. There were definite alarm bells going off when i was reading Cats' interaction with Sheth; how when Sheth was pressuring him, Cats wasn't really responding in a normal way. Through his analysis Jitsu claimed that for Sheth and Cats, whatever one flips the other will most likely flip. This was based off their interactions in the thread, all of which JItsu covered in his post HERE On January 08 2012 11:58 CatsnHats wrote: @Prob yeah I do think they are (Blurry too) better scum targets than Sheth. I think we are letting the terrible activity level of half this town make us point the finger at each other. @Sheth you're exactly right. I'm ghosting on Prob's analysis of you. Gonzaw ghosted on it too and has already put a placeholder vote on you. I REALLY don't like that. He says that your words in your defense could have an effect on changing his mind, but that he won't be around to see it. WHAT IS THAT? This is a really important time in this game. We really need a lynch on mafia. That doesn't sit well with me. @Everyone The phrase I bolded is really interesting to me. It seems like the town (including myself) has followed Probulous without much question. He has posted so much many long posts so often that we have written him off as town without thought and reanalysis. Do you think that Probulous is getting by without enough criticism? He's not a D2 lynch target by any means, but do you think that is true? This is NOT FOS, I'm just asking a question. This last part really confused me Cats; why soft accuse Prob and then end with THIS IS NOT FOS but provide no analysis? | ||
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The thing that got me most sold on Cats was jitsu to be honest; he seemed so sure of it, and his play before his death was very pro town. You are probably going to call this sheeping but it seems everyone in this thread has to have an original idea about something otherwise they are sheeping. Gretorp was probably the first person i was suspicious of when reading through the thread; he is just nowhere to be found, promises analysis with no follow up and posts a bunch of filler and some OMGUS. Paperscraps has been less than convincing but has at least provided some reads. @Paperscraps - if you were town who would you vote for after Cats as the remaining scum? | ||
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On January 10 2012 13:07 Probulous wrote: Ok it may be my sentence structure but i was trying to say that the case against Blurry IS NOT as convincing as the case against Gretorp i.e. Gretorp > Blurry on my scum-0-meter. The "well yeah" refers to the fact that he promised analysis and reads but never provided; there was just so little to go on but all the empty promises and fluff posts made me very suspicious. There was nothing wishy washy about it - why can i only be suspicious of one person at a time? Gretorp looks suspicious by the posts he had made. Sheth's comments about Xeris got me thinking about Xeris' alignment and how his inactivity and sheth's defence of him gives me a scum feel. FoS does not mean i am saying HE IS SCUM - FoS refers to placing suspicion on him to try get him to talk more and provide more information. The last line was me saying Sheth's defence of Xeris should not be a clinching blow to Xeris' credibility. I thought it would be a pretty clever strategy of a scum player to tie their fate to a townie; this happened in the one previous game of mafia i was in and it was so effective it cost town one of their most active players. I think it was based mostly on this past experience; i don't know what Occam's razor is but i will go find out about it @BK, can you please respond to this. I would also like your thoughts on who the third mafia is, assuming Cats flips scum. Your thoughts on Gonz would be welcome too, try and ignore what I have written about him. Thanks! Lol sorry i completely missed this; my responses are in bold - hope the formatting works :p | ||
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Ok i feel like this is devolving into YOU ACCUSED ME, SO NOW I AM GOING TO ACCUSE YOU! So this may seem like old/obvious information, but i feel like it will put us on track Player List AnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw Blurry Probulous CatsnHats So basically from the above list there are 8 players left in the game. From that list we have 2 mafia remaining after the lynch on Sheth. That means we have 25% chance to lynch correctly based off ZERO reads or analyses. If we use common assumptions and reads into it (without personal bias) we have the following; Player List AnxiousHippo Replaced by bkrow Cephiro (town vibe) Xeris Replaced by Kronhjort Gretorp Replaced by Paperscraps Gonzaw (probably town) Blurry Probulous (probably town) CatsnHats That means there are 2 mafia in a remaining 5 players; that is a 40% chance to lynch correctly. If we factor in personal bias i.e. i know that i am town, it increases to a 50% chance to lynch correctly. So from Kronhjort Paperscraps Blurry CatsnHats 2 are most likely mafia, from my perception of the game so far, and 2 are most likely town. If we minus Kronhjort for being a lame ass nonposterino we get left with 3 people. If Kron is mafia, we have a 1/3 chance. So now it is time to compare the cases for Paperscraps, Blurry and CatsnHats - ONE OF YOU WILL BE LYNCHED, THE QUESTION IS WHICH ONE? Case against CatsinHats: 1 2 3 Case against Paperscraps 1 Case against Blurry 1 I am suggest to everyone, as i will be doing myself, to read very carefully through these posts before the deadline and come to a majority decision to ensure a lynch. | ||
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On January 11 2012 14:36 Paperscraps wrote: I agree that lynching Xeris is stupid, but I would rather lynch him that lynch nobody at all. This is all fine and dandy Bk, but you have to form an opinion of your own! Post like these don't add anything we don't already know. Who are you leaning towards? Where do you stand? Also, you aren't out of the picture as well.  1) I am trying to form an opinion based on reading through peoples posts, just because i don't cut and paste an image macro and insta-vote someone doesn't mean i don't have an opinion - you are my number 1 target based on Gretorp's earlier posts but i am trying to read what you are saying and see if it still fits with how i feel about you 2) I am not too sold on anyone else; that main analysis for people seems to be that someone is "wishy-washy" or "sheeping" neither of which i feel are solid indicators of anything, particularly in a newbie game; there needs to be more than that for me. 3) I like gonz's post about players that avoid conversation between each other and feel that deserves a closer look. 4) Posts like these do add something; a focus for the town. The last few pages was --> Blurry accuses Cats, Cats accuses Blurry, Someone accuses you, you accuse someone (haven't checked the exact order of events); i think the post i made at least provides the town (the majority) with a key focus point on 3 main targets (i know i am town, believe what you want based on my posts) | ||
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On January 11 2012 14:38 Cephiro wrote: Sheesh, before I post anything longer I just have to say this. WHY ARE YOU GUYS EVEN THINKING ABOUT LYNCHING XERIS WHEN HE IS GOING TO BE MODKILLED? If he shows up before lynch time, then we can check into that again. The only one that suggested that was Probu; and 2 of us quickly suggested it would be a complete waste of a lynch | ||
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bkrow
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Sigh. What a waste. | ||
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i.e. lynch paper, he flips green, Cats goes bye-bye lynch Cats, he flips green, paper is a good next target lynch paper, he flips red, Cats is probably town lynch cats, he flips red, Paper is probably town Obviously, lynching a townie is shit but at this stage i highly doubt they are both scum, so there is chance we get it wrong. So after reading through the filters again, i am definitely leaning on Paper; if you consider how Cats has been posting, and his activity, at the very least i feel he has been more contributory than paper. Furthermore, i just can't shake that scum vibe i got from the early posts by Gretorp. I also feel lynching him will give us information on Cats due to their recent exchanges. DISCLAIMER: If the vote ends up being a split i will gladly change my vote to Cats to ensure a lynch, as i said above, i am not to concerned with the order, just more worried about lynching a townie :\ ##vote Paperscraps | ||
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Sigh. Please can we just have a consensus on paper vs cats? | ||
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##unvote: Paperscraps ##vote: Blurry | ||
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PLEASE | ||
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