I don't really like your jailer usage GM. The chance of making a save or roleblocking a useful role is the same wether you "aim" it at scum or not. Only difference is that it saves a lot of trouble for scum in choosing their shots since they wouldn't bother shooting people that are considered scummy overall, since they are more easily pushed as a lynch. If there is a jailer he should definetely aim for a save as this makes things overall harder for scum. The chance of there being a doc or a jailer is 5/6, while having a doc is only 1/2. Having both aiming for a save is the best in making they choose non-optimal shots.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 01:22 GMT

#251

I have aditional thoughts on the setup which I'll save for discussion half way through the day.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 18:27 GMT

#295

@chaoser I don't see the relevance of any of this stuff you posted regarding another game, but ok. I'm not convinced your team is scum just yet. I think hyshes would be way more careful and consult with chaoser before posting that were he scum. He is a new player and that is what new players who roll scum do: they ask for advice before posting.

Now, for what I said I would post about the setup: Kurumi has said it already. My sugestion is that we no lynch today and save a no lynch for later to prolong this game. This setup has a high chance of benefiting town and generating a lot of info the longer it goes. For people saying "if we don't lynch we have no chance of hitting scum". Sure, but whoever you thought is scummy isn't going to dissapear or if he does that's one saved mislynch. We are basically trading 2 nights of possible info for 1 shot in the dark day1. If someone here can say they are confident someone else is scum and prove it to us, I'm all for lynching. But despite having my suspicions I'm not willing to make this trade based on the odds I think I'm getting. I'd rather wait and no lynch today.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 18:49 GMT

#300

That's why I waited until now to sugest this. We already know who pushed for what day one and got a bunch of reactions. Going ahead with the lynch with the info we have right now has a low chance of hitting scum imo. This is only anti-town if the team we end up lynching amongst those that have a chance of getting lynched based on this day one (your team, team edward and team viking) end up being scum. If you think the odds of us hitting scum today are favorable, then go ahead and consider this anti-town. I don't and I will do my part to ensure we no lynch today, unless someone comes up if a more convincing case. Your case on prpl is no where near good enough and you know it. You'd rather lynch him on this flimsy evidence?

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 18:55 GMT

#301

You are wrong GM, sorry. Lynching is only good for town when it hits scum. The process is good for town regardless, but going ahead with it is only favorable depending on results.
From an optimization stand point regarding the setup I guarantee you town's chances are higher if we prolong the game by one night.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 18:59 GMT

#304

You got wrapped around your head that there is only one way to play all mafia games. You don't even consider the setup when deciding which is the best course of action and this is proven by you not even knowing how many players were in this game to start with. This setup is extremelly unforgiving for mislynches and town benefits from more night actions. All possible roles have a chance of producing good info. Sit back and think for a bit instead of preaching general advice.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 19:00 GMT

#306

If I thought I had a case with high enough chance of hitting scum, I assure you it would already be posted.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 19:03 GMT

#309

On November 04 2011 03:59 GMarshal wrote:

Show nested quote +

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Lynching makes people take stances and react, things like last minute vote switches, counter bandwagons, ect can *only* be seen with a lynch, and usually in the last 2 or so hours of the lynch.

My brain hurts. Seriously. You are giving the mafia team the momentum, you are letting them pick who dies. I might be more ok with this, had you pulled it out 1 hour before the lynch with the main targets looking like townies, but not only is it bad, but your timing is atrocious. You've posted this before any cases have solidified or any wagons really formed, you've basically killed any wagons scum might try to start and sabotaged the will of any townies to do analysis because "a no lynch is better".

Would you be arguing this if the setup were 7 vts vs 2 reds?

Probably not right now, but I could try to do it either way if I didn't like the leading candidate as scum.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 19:46 GMT

#314

@radfield Where did you get that info about mafia choosing who makes the kill? I can't find it in the OP. The spoiler questions didn't lead me to that conclusion.

Can mafia choose who performs the kill?

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 21:55 GMT

#329

One thing I'm curious about is that you took it over in this game, chaoser, while hyshes is still active in the other game he is playing. You stated before that you would be taking a more layed back role in your team, but things seem to have changed. Why is that?

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 03 2011 23:33 GMT

#350

Sevryn is sick and asked to replace out.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 04 2011 02:10 GMT

#368

I agree with you that supersoft is likely town, but I'm interested in your reasoning for forumite/prplhz. This particular post from forumite is pretty scummy to me:

On November 04 2011 09:11 Forumite wrote:

Show nested quote +

Sure, you can pick this lynch, I´ll pick the next one

Not only he shows that he is not concerned about who we lynch today, but also shows a certainty that he will be around longer.
Why exactly do you believe they are town kita?

Also my post about no lynch (despite me agreeing with it) was a method to get reads from people. It's a controversial issue and I would expect a strong reaction from townies regarding that topic, but some consideration aswell. Some players raised good points most of which I agree with and some where impartial or aloof. Obviously I'm aware that I would become easy lynch bait for scum to pile on, but that doesn't bother me as I'm sure there are inteligent players here.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 05 2011 21:24 GMT

#618

Just throwing this out there: I belive mafia is amongst team nipple/edward/switzerland. All the other teams look town to me.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 05 2011 21:59 GMT

#621

Honestly I didn't want anyone lynched ytd, especially after you claimed parity cop.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 06 2011 05:54 GMT

#696

Ok I gather you guys think each other is mafia but I'd like to see a well constructed argument from both of you. It's indeed suspicious that wbg/rad didn't get shot tonight, but honestly they have not been on my radar before the day shift. I want to hear more from hyshes/radfield aswell as rol. Previous game are irrelevant, but of course meta plays a role. The main thing making me lean towards chaoser scum right now is the fact that hyshes is totally gone and that is unexpected considering what chaoser said previously. Also RoL needs to post. I'm not afraid of lynching someone that doesn't give a fuck about this game, and you can bear the blame of the loss if you are town.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 06 2011 06:08 GMT

#698

I'd lynch kurumi and rol.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 06 2011 17:02 GMT

#709

@radfield After a parity cop claim there was no reason not to hit you guys. As decon said both our team and igrok's could be much more easily pushed as a lynch today then yours. It IS suspicious that you are alive, since for me you were the logical hit were you town (based on reputation and the amount of effort wbg is putting on this game as you said).
Also, how much are you following this game or talking to wbg? It's really strange that you are both on the same page on chaoser/hyshes, since the case is not that strong imo. Do you agree completely with everything wbg has been saying? He usually plays this agressive and forces the issue, but that's not your style from what I gather.

sandroba

Canada4998 Posts

November 06 2011 17:14 GMT

#710

Also the fact that I'm still not certain who is scum points toward scum doing a good job. Team chezinu (for being skilled) and team switzerland (for being really inactive) would certainly be a mafia team that fit this scenario. It's also weird that suddenly RoL pops in to call the "rad'wbg still alive" crap, while otherwise saying nothing. He is clearly reading the thread as he shows up when called out, but apparently doesn't have time to say anything about anything else.

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