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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On October 28 2011 21:20 GMarshal wrote: Oops, sorry about that *brohoof* there you go ^_^ *brohoof* | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
onch i am sober i will post for reals | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
I guess to get things start hacklebeast hasn't posted anything yet. so until he speaks up or a better target comes along ##Vote hacklebeast | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you. Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable. I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point. Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
That said, the 3 people up for the chopping block are Skram, Toad, and myself. Out of those three Skram looks like the best target. Toad has been actively attacking people and creating leads. Skram doesn't seem like 100% scum to me but he seems like the best choice with lynch so close. He has been tentative to vote for anyone till chocolate threw a vote his way which forced him to act. I think he was hopping to slip by day one with attracting to much attention. Which is good enough for me. However if he turns up green I am going to be looking scummy as hell for join the bandwagon. ##unvote hacklebeast ##Vote Skrammen | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On October 31 2011 16:23 xsksc wrote: Zanfada Not posted a lot so far but he looks very strange to me. 1 vote and a FOS in 2 posts. I'd like to hear more out of you. I would also like to know why you defend toad in the first half of your post and then FOS on ciry for defending you. You said the only time you are defended is when scum try to buddy up to you... Seems very contradictory to me. I'm not really seeing anything suspicious out of anyone else yet, need to hear from the inactives. We do have to lynch someone today so please keep posting people! I hope that is the right quote, I thought we were wasting our time going after toad for saying we all should post, I think the first 2 pages were just "post more guys" and not enough things of value. The fos on ciry was more of an afterthought he defended me which pretty much stalled out my first vote because then everyone knew what the vote entailed (though it was pretty obvious). I lost a werewolf game recently were a goddamn scum befriended me and lost because of it so maybe it has been clouding my judgement on games since. I am not going to lie, it was a fluff post. It give some interesting info though. Chocolate responded to it second posting about how it was fluff, seems like an easy bandwagon to get on. If I get lynched today my money is on him being scum right now. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On October 31 2011 08:07 hyshes wrote: You tend to say very little with very much words.. That seems to me like you are overcompensating for the lack of conclusive arguments. just saw this and I agree, I am used to playing IRL and tend to ramble there, it does not translate well to the forums though and I will work on shorter concise points. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On November 01 2011 09:04 Skrammen wrote: If you decide to lynch me anyway, and I do flip green, there's a good chance all of the scum will be among those who are most adamant about lynching me. If I flip red, then risk and bunneh got some 'splaining to do.{ This last statement is really odd, If you are town then there is no reason to bring it up. This seems like a scum slip to me but why say you might be red if you are scum... | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
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Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On November 01 2011 09:40 Zanfada wrote: This last statement is really odd, If you are town then there is no reason to bring it up. This seems like a scum slip to me but why say you might be red if you are scum... can you comment on this skram, the choice of words is still bothering me. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On November 02 2011 00:48 Toadesstern wrote: got home from university now and yeah let's get a little analysis what happened last day. Let's just pretend we don't know a thing. In that scernario everything's possible. I could be green, I could be red, Skrammen could be green and Skrammen could be red. Same with Zanfa and risk but I'm going to talk about Skrammen and me since the two of us are the main subjects in this thread right now. 1) Both red Let's start with the easy one and pretend both Skrammen and I am red. In that case the two of us are stupid and I'm blaming him to be mafia while he is blaming me to be mafia. I know we're not really blameing each other but I did vote for him so I guess that counts, too. That does not sound like a good plan for mafia imo. 2) Both green Next possibilty: We're both green. If that turns out to be true towns horribly fucked. Not because of the fact that both of us are green but since we didn't even get a majority on a green while mafia is probably even helping us or at least spreading their votes and therefore we might have 1 or 2 mafias on Skrammen as well. And still we don't get a majority. If that's true we got a major problem because we're not going to get a lynch anytime soon (= free kill for mafia without having the chance to kill a mafia or at least get GRANTED information). => pretty much everyone could be mafia because they're able to vote whoever they want without having to manipulate votes at least a bit. 3) Skrammen green, I'm red In that case town got a heavy problem as well. Skrammen was closest for having a majority and it's pretty much the same as the second possibility: I'm mafia and I went for a wagon issued by someone else and still town hasn't got a majority. That would mean that out of those 6 votes probably 2 or 3 votes are issued by mafias (my vote at least + maybe my buddies) while 3 townies voted for Skrammen, 3 voted for me, 2 voted for Zanfa and 1 voted for Chocolate. That's not exactly what you want to do as town, no matter what. 4) I'm green, Skrammen is red In that situation mafia is probably not going to vote for skrammen in the first place. They want to safe their buddy as long as it's possible without leaking information of who actually is mafia out of votingbehaviors right before the deadline. Also this would mean we got at most 1 mafia voting for Skrammen (that is if they got balls). I doubt they got the balls to put their mafia buddy on a 6-votes position themselves, just to make those other 2 mafias really hidden. There could always be a hero votechange 1h before the deadline which would have made a lynch. So in that scenario we probably got about 5 townies voting for Skrammen, maybe it's even 6, while mafia is trying to get us on someone else. Therefore they got either 2 votes on me, 1 vote on me + 1 vote on zanfa or 2 votes on zanfa (the third one is Skrammens vote on choc), while 3 townies did not choose to vote for Skrammen. For me it's kind of clear. I can rule out possibilty 1 (let's face it, noone's that stupid). I think 3 is pretty unlikely. I just think town should be able to get more than 3 votes on a single person without mafia therefore I think there's no mafia votes on Skrammen. If there are we're really fucked. 2 and 4 could be possible in my opinion. Having 5 or 6 townies able to focus their votes on 1 single person while 3 are not sure what to do sounds reasonable for me (compare with example 3: I don't think we got only 3 people being able to focus their votes while the rest is spreading their votes for whatever reason). Therefore I'd say its 4 > 2 > 3 > 1 I'm still not saying I think Skrammen's 100% sure red, and if he's green than risk is green as well. But I think it's a better explanation than the two of us being green or 'me red + Skrammen green' or both red. 1) seems unlikely but if 2 mafia keep pointing at each other and get the town split in half then it will be very hard for us to ever get a lynch off making us easy pickings for night hits. 2)If both of you are green then what did the mafia do voting yesterday? With 2 greens on the chopping block if one bandwagon failed they would have started another for the other imo to get atleast 1 town killed. Instead they let the lynch fall apart which makes me think 1 of you are mafia. 3) This is what the votes are kind of showing, 3 townies for both of you and then 3 mafia for skram to save you. I voted for skram to save myself, he hasn't done any analysis other then superficial placing FOS on my for post crap which is just as much as he has done. 4)I am leaning towards this option out of the 4, skram's bandwagon happened throughout the day, however if skram is green then I think chocolate is red. I think one of you are probably mafia but I am not sure which, with the way the votes are split it seems more likely that Toad is mafia over Skram. @skram I hopeing to get more then 4 lines of counterattacks (as town the more information you give will help me analyize and confirm that you are town). Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again? If i can get a better read on you and who you think is guilty rather then quick posts not explaining much then I could leave you be, but right now I have a null read on you, you are all over the place, half the time I think you are town the other half i think you are mafia, I just dont have a good enough read on you to determine if you are town or not. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
I will have post talking about more current stuff when I am down with class and can compile some posts | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
Drem Makes a number of mistakes making him look more like a newbie and easier to ignore. Asking a question that is answered in the general rule + Show Spoiler + On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted? If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider. Editing his post + Show Spoiler + On November 01 2011 03:28 Drem903 wrote: I'll be the first to admit that i am not particularly talkative, although that's mostly because i don't have regular computer access at school.. I have been reading the thread through, and although i still hold zanfada in suspicion, i will also have to agree that SKrammen has not really contributed that much either. His only notable post just recounts information that everyone should know (though some may not have read the thread too carefully and could've forgotten). Although i feel the need to point out, that SKrammen did call out Zanfada for being hasty to vote (even if he could later rescind the vote). If they were both scum, then it wouldn't make sense for them to call suspicion upon one another. Zanfada also hasn't posted in a while, and the only notable parts of his posts were: asking the blues to post more frequently (though not to identify themselves), and to defend himself from hacklebeasts own accusations. So, the people i'm currently very suspicious of are: SKrammen and Zanfada. When i get more time to really look at everyone's posts this might change, but it's just those 2 for now. ##vote Zanfada The whole not voting for skram even though drem thought skram was scummy + Show Spoiler + On November 03 2011 03:21 Drem903 wrote: ##vote Toadesstern Reasons: 1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia. 2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth. 3) one of his earliest posts was to tell blues to post more frequently, which could have been a way to encourage the new Blue's to help the town, or (more likely) try and make them a mafia target. Anyway, now that i'm a genuine target. As i said, my reasoning for not lynching SK was that my suspicion was not enough to risk lynching him if he's town. If Rammen was town, then we would have ended up losing two townies on day 1, leaving us with a bare majority (we would have 6 out of 10 people), which means every one of us would have to agree. The risk is that if one or two mafia make even an ok case, some town may agree with them and then we get split vote once more. I wasn't convinced enough on SK to vote for him so i didn't. This is only my first game, so maybe that's just a nooby mistake and it's usually worth it to take a chance on the lynch, but i just didn't think it was in the town's best interest to take that chance. Skram Has not posted much in days, any his previous posts don’t accually say much. + Show Spoiler + On October 31 2011 23:10 Skrammen wrote: Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it. + Show Spoiler + The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on. I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red. + Show Spoiler + I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that. What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote + Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you. Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable. I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point. Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now. This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse? In that post he says that my quick day one vote was a good move to getting the ball rolling as well as scummy. It has been over 24 hours since he has posted anything, I think after his near miss he has been spoked into hiding. Also Risk died defending him, what is a better claim then saying the person protecting me was innocent so I must be as well. hacklebeast Its been over 48 hours since he has posted that is fucking crazy if you ask me, Hackle you need to post a lot more and now. Otherwise its going to be a mod kill | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On November 03 2011 19:38 hyshes wrote: Actually, for me it's kinda obvious who the 4 (3scum + 1 detective) persons are who have extra information. Obviously I'm not gonna post the 4 names, since otherwise the 3 scum will kill the detective next night. What i will do is try to find in my list of 4 a certain scum and post this with a analysis. Since you seem to want to quit and are committing suicide basically I would like you to expand more on this. Cause right now you seem to be making emotional pleas to get us not to lynch you. Honestly you were on my more likely scum list but without basically giving up it is hard to think of you as anything but scum and you are trying not to give any more info before you die. Please If you are green give us all the reads you have, it is important for town. You say you have 4 good reads and I really would like to hear them. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
On November 03 2011 00:04 hyshes wrote: I jus reread the whole thread and i'm going to post a hard statement here. Ciryandor - Toadesstern - Drem903 These 3 are referring to each other all the time, without direct accusations. This leaves me to think that they don't want eachother lynched.. but wan to have a backup of posts that do kinda disconnect them. There is something really fishy between those 3. I'm willing to go on a vote on one of these three for sure. I have been rereading the thread I and the only connection I have been seeing between these three is when Ciry and Toad talk about the game all three of us were in before this one. Even with all this evidence against you (from HoD's post) and your FOS Ciry he is still voying for Drem, which you said was his scum buddy... It just doesn't add up, please help us not vote for you, tell us your reads. Giving up like this is bullshit so until you have a good arguement you have my vote. ##vote hyshes but that can easily be changed when you post your reads because this bandwagon formed rather fast which means you are either town or getting thrown under the bus by your scum buddies. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
He is from EU so he might as toad brought up be asleep now Also it looks like hackle is going to be mod killed (I think he is town but that is of no help to anyone). He has been posting on other parts of tl which leads me to believe he gave up. | ||
Zanfada
United States53 Posts
People I think are town HoD Ciry People I like are mafia or seem scumish to me Toad – Every town that has died has problems him, it is hard to believe it is a coincidence. Defending the hyshes bandwagon Drem – for day 1 stupidness, but looking at his day 2 stuff I am getting more of a town vibe, still on my watch list though, the hysh bandwagon saved his life imo something to look into Skram – Still on my watch list from day one, he froze up underpreassure on day 1 and night 1. He didn’t really start posting again till the hysh bandwagon That being said these 3 as mafia makes no fucking sense to me and I made this list. I would like to hear more from chocolate IMABUNNEH, I just don’t have a good read on either of you two. | ||
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