EPTPMs.
Normal Game ^_^
TL Mafia XLIII
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
PMs. Normal Game ^_^ | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
Confirmed townie is definitely better. Have you heard how Ace talked about Masons in that Mafias #1 targets thread? It's because they're confirmed so easily. A confirmed townie is valuable, and that's just 1 person less to shoot at. Furthermore, even hitting a townie can give us a lot of information for our first official lynch. It also gives us new information to re-evaluate our thoughts. If he dies because mafia stacks, all the better. This means, if we miss, we killed 1 extra townie day 1, but also saved 1 extra townie night 1. Pretty even. If the Day Vig doesn't shoot, there is a chance that he gets sniped night 1, especially with all the talk about him. I think it's beneficial to have him shoot. The problem is... is there a Day Vig? o.O | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On August 02 2011 08:50 heist wrote: Are you opposed to this plan in general? Or its use day 1? I fully support this plan day 2, and tentatively day 1 depending on town's conviction of the victim. After 24 hours if we don't have a strongly suitable candidate, I don't think we should use the day vig just yet. The soldier is the most powerful role for the town: a day vig that can confirm himself. Let's not waste it on someone who is sorta fishy/lurky just to get a confirmed townie. We can wait till day 2. I can't see mafia not double stacking the day vig night 1 if he is revealed. He provides an easy outlet for dt checks and the ability to coordinate all roleblocks and protections. If we wait till day 2, it'll be a lot clearer for the day vig to coordinate who to roleblock/kill/protect etc. Also if we wait till day 2, the night 1 DT checks will provide confirmed townie/scum. So if the day vig is doublestacked, he can pass his entire network to the confirmed townies. That way everything isn't completely destroyed if the day vig dies. Wait, what? No, there wouldn't be confirmed townies aside from the Dayvig unless you're risking letting the info fall into the hands of the godfather. Why would you suggest that? I understand picking townie isn't likely, but it's still a possibility we CANNOT rule out. There are confirmed scum through DT checks, but no confirmed townies. Also, day2 reveals a problem as well. If the DT checks the dayvig, he's essentially wasted a DT check. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On August 02 2011 09:00 Curu wrote: No, it goes like this: Mafia-I will be protecting player x Confirmed townie-stfu I choose who you protect, you'll be protecting player y Mafia-Okay... Yup, and if Mafia shoots player Y, and player Y dies, then clearly the medic isn't a medic but is mafia. :/ So if mafia tries to be medic, it effectively hurts them. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On August 03 2011 12:42 JeeJee wrote: actually screw it let's get the ball rolling. anyone disagree with drazerk as a candidate? Yeah, I do. I played with Drazerk AA and he acted the same way. If I recall, it was basically a "Lynch Wiggles" post and then afk. I'm down for either varpulis or Kenpachi. I don't get why sandroba's supposed to have seemed town. I mean, looking back on the plan, I realize it's incredibly bad. and this post by sandroba docH, how is the simple fact that it's no longer day1 is going to make lynches more acurate down the line? If we can speed up the process and basically skip night 1 how is it possibly bad for town? What? He knows better than this. So the plan basically becomes let's out the dayvig and give mafia a free blue. :/ | ||
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ghrur
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ghrur
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Don't be a pessimist. I support the shooting of JeeJee | ||
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ghrur
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Yes, I understand lynching for information was bad. I was making the point that losing 3 townies is losing 3 townies until I realized day-vigis get 2 shots so we still effectively lose a vigi, and later shots are more accurate. Why did I change positions? I argued with DrH about this in Mafia IRC and reconsidered my position. Still supports the plan, but here he actually makes a nonsensical point. Nobody was suggesting the mafia would claim protecting someone and then shoot them instead... Neither was I... I was stating how fake-claims by mafia would hurt them under the plan... Like, do you not understand that that was a continuation of thought from what Curu said? >_> Also, you're tunneling by the third "point." Did you not read "looking back?" I re-evaluated my position. Would you like to hear why I realize it's a bad plan? A. It lures out a confirmed townie and ends up with him getting shot. B. We lose a vigi shot early with the opportunity cost of getting a better shot later on. C. Vigis get 2 shots, so even if Dayvig dies, it's not a confirmed townie that dies, but a confirmed blue. D. Instead of ending up with 3 greens dead if mafia stacks, we end up with 2 greens dead and 1 blue dead. Much worse. So what does this effectively do? Lure out a blue for mafia to kill! Why would Sandroba suggest such a plan then! Why was I stupid enough to support it? Because I was stupid. I never mentioned JeeJee before... except in IRC and talking about it to TAA. Guess what? I also find Munk-E scummy but I've never mentioned him before in thread either. I don't post everything I think. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On August 04 2011 08:23 redFF wrote: lol ur scum I got called scummy for talking about stuff on the public irc channel, your talking about all your reads in pms to a couple of people. that is scummy as fuck. Please post your thoughts on both JeeJee and Munk-E. you have 10 minutes because if you already talked about it to other then i assume you will be able to post about it.. What? I talked about it in the public IRC channel except for TAA whom i just talked in IRC privately. And to be honest, I don't really care. Lol. I'm not gonna bullshit an analysis in 10 minutes to protect you so you can tunnel me harder. | ||
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ghrur
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On August 04 2011 08:53 redFF wrote: alanismorisette: ghrur ur mafia too stfu [7:57pm] alanismorisette: post that analysis [7:57pm] alanismorisette: its not bullshit if you have already discussed it with people [7:57pm] alanismorisette: just post what you talked about with them [7:57pm] alanismorisette: quick! [7:57pm] ghrur: It's been past 10 minutes [7:57pm] ghrur: My deadline is gone [7:58pm] ghrur: and I wanna play basketball [7:58pm] alanismorisette: ... [7:58pm] ghrur: Besides, I already said [7:58pm] chaos13 joined the chat room. [7:58pm] ghrur: I didn't save the chat log [7:58pm] alanismorisette: doesnt matter [7:58pm] ghrur: Ask TAA if he has it [7:58pm] alanismorisette: just post the gist of ur position on them [7:58pm] alanismorisette: easy [7:58pm] alanismorisette: just do that for me [7:58pm] ghrur: Sure, I'll do it [7:58pm] ghrur: But I'd rather play basketball [7:58pm] alanismorisette: ... [7:58pm] ghrur: I'll post it afterwards kay? [7:58pm] alanismorisette: do it please [7:58pm] alanismorisette: no [7:58pm] alanismorisette: now [7:58pm] ghrur: No, real life > mafia [7:58pm] alanismorisette: im sorry but everyone is seeing this right [7:59pm] alanismorisette: it will take [7:59pm] alanismorisette: like 5 minutes [7:59pm] alanismorisette: dude [7:59pm] youngmin: i'm laughing my ass off [7:59pm] alanismorisette: you could have finished it by now [7:59pm] ghrur: ??? YM? [7:59pm] ghrur: Cya later [7:59pm] ghrur: <3 [7:59pm] alanismorisette: but instead you are gonna go think about it [7:59pm] ghrur: I'll post it after [7:59pm] youngmin: lolololol [7:59pm] alanismorisette: then post it [7:59pm] alanismorisette: ... [7:59pm] ghrur: Yes, I didn't need to think about my defense [7:59pm] ghrur: <3 [7:59pm] ghrur: Cya [8:00pm] alanismorisette: ... fuck this guy HAHAHAHAHAHA, sorry red. xD No, I really did go play basketball, hahaha. I didn't mean any ill will. Hahahaha. I'm glad YM had a good laugh though. Besides, 10 minutes had passed and nothing happened.  Anyway, down to business. Why Munk-E? + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler [monk-e's analysis] + On August 03 2011 07:21 Munk-E wrote: Below is some analysis of varpulis' posts i'll do more people later. Here he says to not shoot day 1, unless you want to that is, then just reveal your plan forcing you to shoot anyways because you're gonna die, because you revealed your role. I don't see his opinion, because he keeps changing it in this post. at the beginning he says to not shoot, as always and it is especially important in this game, followed by him saying it's okay for dayvigs to shoot. Furthermore he tells them to claim before shooting! Claiming is a death sentence, and it means they'd have to shoot to take people down with them, because they're gonna die anyway. As an aside, does anyone know what his favorite role is? So, here he fully supports the plan again despite his own extra important rule of not shooting day 1. He first says no shooting, then says maybe IF you make sure your going to get yourself killed, and finally now he's all for it! Here he will eat his hat if his plan that he loves so much which goes against his extra important rule actually works... this is after being asked why he likes the plan after he gave his own piece of evidence against it (above)! He gives no answer. Instead, he reverts to a compromise of his beloved plan. and no varpulis, it's a 20% chance. I'm not willing to take that risk, especially because it's roughly the same odds we'll hit a blue. Here his is accusing redff for taking the position of the argument HE'S taking! (Maybe he lost track by now!) It seems like he's just trying to accuse someone for the sake of accusing! Wishy-washy doesn't even begin to explain this. He just won't make up his mind! While I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum, it is VERY suspicious. Unfortunately however, I don't think it's possible to brand him as scum from JUST this. but he's certainly quite possibly scum. + Show Spoiler [missed post] + On August 03 2011 07:34 Lucidity wrote: I think you missed one of Varpulis' important posts Munk-E: Well, in his analysis of Varpulis, notice first that he misses an important post which Lucidity points out. He seemed to be doing a post-by-post style analysis (which btw, is bad), yet misses that important post? Why? To hid Varpulis's scumminess. To be nicer to his teammate. Also notice in this analysis how adamant he is with the attack on Varpulis. He uses multiple exclamation points, capitalization for emphasis, and even calls him VERY suspicious. BUT WAIT! He backs out of it. Notice: I'm not sure this indicates him 100% as being scum but he's certainly quite possibly scum. Certainly quite possibly scum. LOL. I have never seen more wishy-washyness than that. Hahaha, god. That's just backing out of it completely man. Oh, and notice how there's no vote until nearly the end of the day, probably to bus. Oh, and he never votes in the voting thread (booooooooooo). Now, on Munk-E's next analysis, his style totally changes! Someone in Loonybin pointed this out: Munk-E's posts go like this - 1. Stuff about plan. 2. Play-by-play "analysis" 3. Normal, concise analysis. How does one person's posting style change that much? I don't know, seems like he has a team behind him. Look at his arguments as well. Are they new? Are they original? Or are they just parroting OriginalName? Yeah, they're just parroting ON's analysis that Varp was wishy-washy. Note this remark too. On August 04 2011 03:53 Munk-E wrote:He seems VERY eager to get everyone's opinion on everyone, he PMed me asking my opinion on chaos and varp, to which i responded blandly and generically. I don't get why that's bad. It's good that Mig is trying to get people's opinions out and into the open. It's also good that he's pressuring people and using PMs well. Calling that scummy is just trying to stifle PMs and opinions.On August 04 2011 03:53 Munk-E wrote:I don't see why activity is a "town" thing to do. and why lurking is a mafia thing really, especially if being a lurker makes them suspected as being mafia. (Meta, huh?) Anyway, i might vote for him depending on if i think lucidity is more scummy or not Activity is of course good for town because this means we get more to analyze. Stifling activity and supporting lurking is just trying to ruin the town atmosphere. Mig did nothing wrong, even with his words, yet he's attacking him randomly. Why? Why is he also jumping from person to person and throwing out random accusations that don't even make sense? Why doesn't h vote for either of the people he analyzed? To get the town in chaos. To get votes off of Varpulis. Also, if he suspected Lucidity, why doesn't he analyze HIM instead? Now, keep this in mind when you read this: On August 04 2011 06:33 Munk-E wrote: TBH, It would have been a toss up between varp and lucid for me, but I haven't done proper analysis of lucid, so voting for him would look VERY suspicious. I think both are scum anyway. Where is Mig in this equation? Why wouldn't he mention Mig if he did a full blown analysis calling him suspicious? That makes no sense... unless he did it just to seem town. If he found Lucid suspicious, he should've analyzed Lucidity first instead of going after Mig. Unless he's just trying to cast doubt, out one of our top scumhunters, seem town in the process through analysis posts, and end up not voting for them until the end of the day. :/ Yeah, seems about right. Now, onto JeeJee. + Show Spoiler + On August 03 2011 01:41 JeeJee wrote: pressure votes are stupid, where did this trend come from? you know when you say "yeah this is a pressure vote", that's pretty much equivalent to "idk who to vote so i'm voting you, but i'm not actually suspicious of you because all you need to do is say something and i'll remove my vote from you". nobody can seriously feel threatened from a pressure vote, so there's no 'pressure' it's just a throwaway vote Okay, this post was stupid. yes, pressure votes are bad. No, you do not need to point them out. If the person being pressured doesn't know this, they might slip up. Now that he knows this, the chances are lessened. Why would you post this? It provides no benefit to town, and only serves to help mafia. I'm not arguing against the logic here, but the purpose. It serves no good purpose. i see re-evaluation there, not wishy-washiness. do you see otherwise? random fos are just as useless as pressure votes. sandro and varp are both bad in that department as far as i'm concerned. by itself though, it doesn't mean much, and there's nothing else yet. as for me, i don't have scum leanings on anyone. town leans yes, scum leans no. Defense of Varp, and aside from that, no information really. I mean, he seems to suspect YM at this point, but doesn't say anything about it. Not even a scum lean? Really? Hmmmmm, Idk. still not voting, but i'll be here before the deadline tomorrow, no worries. Wishy washyyyyyyyyyyy. Yeah... why would you call someone scum and then not vote? I don't know. On August 03 2011 12:42 JeeJee wrote: actually screw it let's get the ball rolling. anyone disagree with drazerk as a candidate? Why would you ask if other people disagree? Who cares if other people disagree? You still push them anyway. They'll voice their disagreements anyway. Do you need town's permission or something? No! So why all the caution? Serves no purpose. On August 04 2011 05:14 JeeJee wrote: i still think the case against varp is terrible. it's pretty much equivalent to redff's case, which is equally bad. drazerk is still deliberately avoiding this thread while posting in others but sadly not enough people care. seems to be off to a wonderful start. This is just saying, yes, you lynched a mafia, but you're still not off to a good start. It doesn't mean much. Well, why wouldn't it? We lynched scum, we have voting records, and we have defenses. He defended Varp. He's trying to justify it in this post. He's trying to throw off suspicion. I don't like it. He also shifts the attention off the Varp lynch and onto Drazerk again. Why do that? The lynch means a lot since a red just died. Focus on it. :/ Seems like he's throwing doubt around with that remark. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On August 04 2011 11:33 DoctorHelvetica wrote: really you pick munke over sevryn or bc Idk what BC's up to to be honest. | ||
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ghrur
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??? It wasn't post by post... | ||
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ghrur
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Well, it's true, lol. Like, I haven't even PMed the guy yet. On August 04 2011 11:45 JeeJee wrote: oh ghrur you're so amusing. i'd do a rebuttal but everything you wrote is so pointless, it works as its own rebuttal! hurrah. Ty, ty. *bow* I try. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On August 04 2011 11:54 redFF wrote: btw so ghrur lied about playing basketball so he could have time to make up fos's on 2 people he told me he had fos's of already. RIIIIIIIIIGHT Okay, now it's just getting retarded. | ||
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ghrur
United States3786 Posts
On August 04 2011 22:29 TheAwesomeAll wrote: cb and jeejee could both be scum, this is chaos 13 protecting mig (might be a scum hug of dead) fossing for very weak reasons for very weak reasons voting on drazerk, a trend weve been seeing with all scummy people. Imo chaos is very likely scum. He hasnt formed a real opinion the whole game the 2 people he accused were munk e for not delivering and drazerk for lurking. Also there was a logical flaw in why he accused drazerk namely that people thought he drazerk scum because of the lurking, but chaos went a step further by saying drazerk is scum BECAUSE hes lurking AND hes lurking on top of that so he was more scummy then varp. ( he counted the lurking twice) imo there is a clear line between jee jee and chaos, both calling out drazerk for lurking. Its their talking point. If there are vigis in the house hit one of those two, you cant miss. You know, at first, Chaos's posts seemed okay, but that last post you quoted along with this: On August 03 2011 22:02 chaos13 wrote: No, something doesn't sit right with me about Drazerk. Read over some of his past stuff and he's usually quite active as scum. He may disappear for a while, but when he's around, he posts a lot. Varp doesn't fit his meta this time. As someone already mentioned, he's usually very confident with his opinions, but this time he's really being wishy-washy. I'm gonna have to go with Varpulis here, and hope I'm not making a mistake. I'm not a fan of Munk-E either. Remember earlier when he promised to post some analysis on more players? Still haven't seen it. If we had more time I would make a case against him for today, but there is no point bringing in another suspect this late in the day. Make him seem really fish. He said he was going to go with Varp, but he never did. He also seems really hesitant about voting varp. "Hope I'm not hiding a mistake." Townies shouldn't feel that careful about making a mistake, especially since everything was pretty much decided by then. He also calls him out for being wishy-washy, against meta, and scummy. Meanwhile, he says Drazerk's meta doesn't fit his scum. Idk why a vote wasn't placed on Varp by him unless he is scum. | ||
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On August 06 2011 02:37 Lucidity wrote: Not true. Another Vig could have killed a 3rd player. Scum/Vigs could hit a Vet/Med protected player etc. The fact is there are too many variables to confirm the player at night. But MAFIA can't rely on that. Have you forgotten the beginning of Curu's argument? Mafia wouldn't fake-claim Vig without being pressured because they cannot RELY on creating a third KP. It would be too dangerous. Oh, and if they hit a vet/med prot, then the hit person claims and the KPs add up. You're also forgetting the fact that if Mig is red, then he'd die the next day and force the mafia down to 1 KP. So they'll have 1 KP to kill, idk, maybe 2 blues? It's horrible for mafia whatever alignment Mig is. | ||
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