Paranoid Mafia

On July 02 2011 00:49 Pyo wrote:


I also want to point out the irony in this post by RoL...

On July 02 2011 13:47 Pyo wrote:


Difference is that they got scum reads...

On July 02 2011 16:02 Pyo wrote:


Am I the only one who thinks that this whole like of thinking is completely non-sensical. Why would giving away an advantage be a good thing?

First you say, "information, although useful, is not going to win us the game."

Then you say "I rather dts claim now then us lose information."

You're contradicting yourself. You want scum-hunting, there you have it. I was going to vote for whoever's brilliant idea it was to have DT's out themselves day 1 when nothing can be confirmed by it, and low and behold, it's you.

Until I see evidence to the contrary, I think we've just found our mafia pair: sinani206 and Misder.

##vote: Misder

On July 03 2011 00:37 sinani206 wrote:
People who are not confirmed:

3. RebirthOfLeGenD
4. VisceraEyes
5. Sandroba
6. Pyo
7. supersoft
8. nard

Of the three townie claims here, one is town, one is vigilante, and one is mafia.
Of the three detective claims here, two are detectives and one is mafia.

If vigilante claims:
We have one mafia and one town left.

A) If we kill the townie today, vigilante can shoot the mafia tonight and the Mafia will use their KP on me, misder, or the vigilante: the confirmed sane detective or the two confirmed townies.
If they kill me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If they kill a town there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/2 = 1/3

B) If we kill the mafia today, vigilante can shoot an unconfirmed detective tonight and have a 1/3 chance of hitting the second mafia, and Mafia will still kill me, misder, the vigilante, or the townie.
If the vigilante hits a Mafia, town wins. 1/3*1/2 = 1/6
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills me there will be 2 detectives, 2 townies, and 1 mafia left. 2/3*1/4*1/2 = 1/12
If the vigilante hits a detective and Mafia kills a townie there will be 3 detectives, 1 townie, and 1 mafia tonight. 2/3*3/4*1/2 = 1/4

Chance of 2/2/1: 3/12 25%
Chance of 3/1/1: 7/12 58%
Chance of win: 2/12 17%

I think that the vigilante claiming is our best course of action.

On July 04 2011 07:43 sinani206 wrote:
Not killing the vig claim...
##Vote: Fishball