EPTTL Mafia XLII
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
GL HF everyone. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
I propose a DT that has a number on the player list lesser or equal 15 to check me this night. He then pms me my role and I post in the thread that I got checked, of course not revealing his ID. Everyone that has a blue role mansons me. A medic who has a number inferior or equal 10 protects me this night. This should keep mafia guessing, because no one knows how many medics, if any, there are in the first 10 numbers. This can make mafia waste many kp on me or let the plan work. I will not reveal any roles to ANYONE so there are no possible leaks, and will single handly coordinate all the blue force, of course taking into consideration all lists posted in thread and sugested to me via pm's. Possible scenarios: 1) I'm GF, then town is pretty much screwed, but you guys can lynch me if many blues are dead after day1 if you think that's the case. That's the worst possible scenario and a pretty huge loss for town, but I assure I'm not. 2) I'm mafia goon or miller. If I'm mafia I'm pretty dumb proposing this plan, but either way of course the DT will not manson me. If I'm mafia I can lie and tell you guys that a DT has checked me and confirmed my role, causing many blues to roleclaim to me, but then I would risk that there was a DT in the first 15 numbers that can instantly out me as scum randomly mansoning another player and using him as mouth. So it doesn't work well if I'm mafia. If I'm miller I'll of course say in thread that no DT has messaged me (because he won't) and the plan has failed, we can proceed to go by our business and ignore the plan. 3) I'm any other town aligned role (most likely scenario and the real one). If there's a DT who pm's me I'll say so in thread and other blues who have night actions role claim to me. Town proceeds to rape mafia miserably. If no one checks and pms me we ignore this plan and move on. Why this plan is good: First I'm experienced and intuitive enough to make good reads and calls, but not "well known" enough to have a high chance of being mafia GF. Making another praised veteran take this role raises the chance he's the mafia godfather. Second, it has a very slim chance of needlessly tieing up many of our blue roles, since I've limited the possible DTs/Medic protects using the player list. Third, it's pretty hard to make a secure blue coordination center without previously determining a player to be checked or outing the DT, so this is the best I could come up so far. Any criticisms and sugestions are welcome. Let's make this plan the best we possibly can. Cheers. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
You didn't read the plan carefully. If I'm miller the DT will NOT manson me, so I'll post that he didn't and we ignore the plan. If there are no DTs in the first 15 it's the same. Mafia doesn't know if there are medics on the first 10 so they have to risk hitting me and getting their kp blocked OR letting the plan work. You are assuming mafia has knowledge of this which they do not. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
How can mafia mess with me? They have to guess my role AND I'll only tell them who to check. What advantage can mafia derive from this? Maybe organizing blues through one person is not ideal, but it's a start. People still have another manson oportunity which they can use in case I die/ they opt to not trust me. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
So no, in that scenario there is no possible bad outcome for town. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
@Pondo Games are usually balanced around the players aswel, so there's a very high chance there is at least 2 mafia amongst those 8. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
The plan does not exclude analysis, it only speeds up the process of clearing and confirming the subjects of analysis. Let's supose there is a list of suspicious people based on behaviour and voting paterns on a previous inocent lynch. I can organize DTs/Vigs to check supicious players on that list and hit the dubious lurkers more efficiently. It does not stops or hinders any kind of discussion, and it's not like the opinion of the "circle" will be taken at face value either (because even the "circle" does not know each other). Even if a guy is confirmed does not mean he's right as we can tell from many previous games. The plan I'm sugesting is merely an optimization tool for the efficiency of our blues. The plan itself is blue efficient because it's player list dependant and it's not "required" to work. If no DTs check me or if I die night 0 due to no medic protect we can move on with our lifes. You guys can figure out if I'm mafia or not, hopefully. (clue: I'm not) | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
-This plan is not like the mafia 30 plan, because I'm not trying to form a confirmed circle and I'm not tieing up multiple blue roles. Also there is no framer this game, so it's more likely to work. Also, it doesn't HAVE to work, this is just a good start. -It does not stop smaller town circles from forming since our blues will have another mason ability they can use. -It's not a circle per se, since only I will know about other people involved. For people discouraging discussion: I trust our blues not to out themselves. If you are blue I recomend you try to act exactly like you acted in a previous game you were town. Do not refrain from posting. Do not show hesitation or fear to commit to your opinions. Don't actvily try to hide your role and do not make it obvious (i.e.: comment on every other blue action except your own / talk only about your role). This should be kind of obvious, but we see every game blues slip like that. Just forget that you are blue and play like you have no role, except for night actions. So mafia starts with a lot of information, while our blues start with none. We can conclude from this point alone that discussion during night time help town way more than it helps mafia. Let's please keep the discussion going guys. Leaving our blues to act at random is not a good plan. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
However, there is one point I actually found really suspicious, and I think it's the main point of his analysis: Your random list of inactive townies. First, you don't sugest we do anything with it. A random out of place list adds nothing if there is no opinion behind it. You don't say "let's pressure those players into posting" or "Let's lynch the inactives". It's a empity contribution. Second is the fact that even though you had posted 7 times so far, you actually contributed exactly the same as those players. If your intention with that list is putting those players under scrutiny on the bases they have not contributed, your behaviour is certainly controversial. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
I've read the thread kind of quickly and will post more thoughts tomorrow when I wake up. From what I see so far neither sinani or aidanai have solid analysis on them to warrant a lynch. Their posting feels too much out in the open, and not like they are trying to hide something. I don't think jonn's defense is scummy per se, but he still has not responded to the main point (imo) of minii's analysis, which is the out of place lurker's list he posted on the beggining of day1. I've explained why I found it suspicious already on a previous post and would like him to adress it. To me he seems the most solid lynch option so far, along with lynching the various lurkers which have yet to post anything. The way this thread is going, it's a perfectly fine strategy for mafia to be hinding there, so we should adress it before it becomes a real problem. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
I think mataza might be onto something in his DeMorcef analysis. Specially given how quickily he responded to it and the emphasis of being new at the end. Also note that he says he's supicious of jonn and sinani, but he soft attacks sinani in his post. This giraff fellow has a grand total of one post saying he's gonna vote for sinani "after reading the thread". He's a nice candidate aswel, since he claim to have read the thread, but yet he doesn't feel like helping the discussion at all. For myself, I'll be voting jonn for now. I urge you people to take your votes away from sinani/aidnai and onto jonn/demorcef/lurkers. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
LancenC and lazorbear have yet to post, they might get modkilled, so it's silly to waste a vote on them right now. I'm indeed suspicious of grassgiraffe, since he claimed he read the thread, jumped on sinani's bandwagon providing no reasoning and didn't feel the need to contribute anything. I think we should keep the lynch between jonn/demorcef/giraffe. | ||
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