EPTjust read my PM that I am replacing Conversion. This is my first time playing a forum mafia game.
I will catch up reading first. I guess I should post an analysis on someone to contribute?
TL Mafia XXXIX
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Germany358 Posts
just read my PM that I am replacing Conversion. This is my first time playing a forum mafia game. I will catch up reading first. I guess I should post an analysis on someone to contribute? | ||
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I think we should consider Impervious as mafia strongly. | ||
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I didn't remember why orgolove was suspected that much and checked his posts, because he was not on "kenpachi's last list": + Show Spoiler + On May 16 2011 03:29 Kenpachi wrote: That Summary is a bit butchered because Medics most likely exist. Lets study the Mafia List GGQ - Roleblocker Amber[Light] - Goon sinani206 - Goon Irish_Punk13 - Goon Now then, through my inexistent humble insight, i believe the other two mafia are well experienced players. Why? well, 1 of them is the Godfather which is GOING to be top tier in the mafia. The Goon that is left is most likely experienced because of the Mafia META. You would never put more newbies that experienced players in the mafia due to heavy imbalance. Our prime suspects are.. redtooth ilovejonn impervious airbladeorange hey theyre all experienced. Either redtooth or ilovejonn is going to be the godfather because i believe they are the 2 most experienced of the 4 What I found on orgolove is that he is he is very focused on ilovejohn, calling for lynching him every day: + Show Spoiler + On May 16 2011 14:10 orgolove wrote: So. ilovejonn. Lets go. + Show Spoiler + On May 15 2011 15:49 orgolove wrote: I dodn't quote his whole post, its the one with his "tabelatutory" analysis + Show Spoiler + To me, the data clearly shows that ilovejonn and AirbladeOrange are the remaining two reds. I strongly push for ilovejonn's lynch. + Show Spoiler + [QUOTE]On May 15 2011 12:55 orgolove wrote: [QUOTE]On May 15 2011 12:50 ilovejonn wrote: bet he's still gonna stick to his data sheet and go with whoever has the highest points after tonight. because vote analysis is the best and only analysis am I right orgolove? Nah, I'm still sticking my vote on you, scum.[/QUOTE] For me it is very clear that either ilovejon or orgolove is mafia, ilovejon is attacking orgolove for only contributing with his excel stuff (I don't find it very helpful, to little sample size), and orgolove is tunneling (I hope i used that correctly) ilovejon, because he is so high on his list. If we lynch orgolove or ilovejon we know the alignment of the other player. On Impervious and redtooth: redtooth has not contributed at all, I find that very suspicious, maybe we should force him into contributing? Impervious as I said is on my scumlist, but if he contributes a bit more today he can live. Summary: I think we should lynch orgolove or ilovejon today, as it gives us information of the other player and they are prime suspects. P.S.: I will eat something now and maybe if I am bored after I will analyze ilovejon a bit. I would really like to see an analysis of ilovejon that is not in form of an excelsheet. I know that I did not touch orgoloves voting at all, I am not very experienced in analyzing that so maybe someone else can look into it? | ||
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Germany358 Posts
On orgolove, I do not remember who wrote it, but someone said that orgolove does not act scummy but more like a butthurt townie who has worked a lot on his (tabulatory) analysis and after no one accepts it as sound reasoning for a lynch is a bit inactive. I also think that what orgolove wrote is not that scummy and he was not on kenpachi's list what gives him town credit for me. I would really like an analysis by orgolove about ilovejon. | ||
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On May 16 2011 17:53 elmizzt wrote: What would be AO's agenda in killing off Kenpachi based on that? Revenge? I think you're reading too much into that. It was simply an easy kill to give no info, a delaying tactic by the last red because he feels no pressure from town. I also think that AO would be stupid if he was mafia and killed kenpachi because of that, AO was not on most peoples list anymore, if killing kenpachi does something it is making us focus on AO more. | ||
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Again, please orgolove, if you are pro town write an analysis of ilovejon. | ||
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I also find his inactivity very suspicious and he is on my list. I just think that lynching him would not give us as much information, he has to post at least once not to be modkilled, if he does post something and it looks scummy I might switch my vote to him. Redtooth's inactivity is almost incriminating him too much. He contributed a fair amount and then suddenly he is dead quiet, I think it might have to do with real life stuff he does. Look at his post history, his last post here was may 17th, his last post on TL may 18th. This is not to say that he is not scummy, I just think that lynching him might not give us any information and he would be modkilled regardless. | ||
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I made a little list of "inactive" people: Not voted until now: Jaminz,elmizzt,Mig,kitaman27,redtooth zero posts: redtooth one post: Jaminz (one post night) low post count: Airbladeorange, elmizzt,kitaman27 (each 3 posts) only posted during night: ilovejonn (1 post day, 4 night) | ||
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why wasn't I online the last minutes. I really think analyzing who switched when could help us finding scum this time... With Imp defending orgolove I would actually back away from lynching him, but I am not too convinced on ilovejonn either. I have a gut feeling that neither orgolove nor ilovejonn are scum, but I have no Idea who could be then... | ||
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I think everyone who is still in the game has been accused of being scummy at least once. ilovejonn and orgolove keep acusing each other, Jaminz has some strange voting (IIRC) and has been accused and Airblade orange has also been accused of being scummy a few times and that are just the ones I remember and I just skimmed a lot of pages in the past. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On May 18 2011 10:26 jaminz wrote: I've been pretty MIA thus far, as you all have undoubtedly seen. I've been reading the thread, but just barely. I'm going to vote for Impervious after looking over his post history and reading the analysis from Kita and others. I'm not voting for ilovejonn because the only two people who are currently voting for him are people I don't really trust (orgolove and Impervious). I'm not voting for orgolove (yet) because I think that while his posting has been very erratic, I don't really think it's possible that scum would be that wild/weird this late in the game (and with only two of them left). I'm not voting for redtooth (yet) because while his analysis was completely wrong in the early game, I don't think he's done enough to raise my suspicion about him to the point where I'd vote for him over Impervious. If I had to rank my top suspects it'd probably look something like this: 1. Impervious 2. ilovejonn 3. redtooth 4. orgolove . . . (5). Kitaman and some others I just have weird gut feelings about He tells us why ne finds ilovejonn and orgolove are not that suspicious, like people before have done. Then he says redtooth is not as suspicious as impervious and thats why he votes for Impervious. He actually never tells us why he finds Impervious is suspicious. If he was mafia and knew that redtooth is a townie that would be modkilled, that explains why he wanted another townie to get lynched. Also this post is the only one where he wrote anything that could be called a contribution, except for posting the remaining players at the beginning of night 5, which can be seen at page one of the thread. That is why I will vote for him for now, maybe I can pressure him into being more active in spirit of VarpuliS. | ||
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I wanted to lynch him over redtooth yesterday because redtooth would be modkilled and I wanted to pressure orgolove into contributing differently. It is to note that Impervious defended orgolove with his last breath and that sandroba didn't get a scumread on him. For this day, even if you are uncertain about orgolove I urge you not to vote for him. It is the same than with Impervious yesterday, orgolove and Impervious contribute and post at least. I think scummy players that are inactive like jaminz are worst than players like orgolove that contribute but you don't trust them as much. | ||
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