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Team Melee Mini Mafia II

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 19 2010 23:47 GMT
#211
I think Foolishness pointed out all the reason's why Incognito's plan is bad: especially true are that no one ever seems to follow them and that medics should protect themselves until they get a really good read on someone else.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 19 2010 23:51 GMT
#212
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 20 2010 02:57 GMT
#223
On September 20 2010 09:01 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2010 08:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
I don't have any suspicions at this point. I'll probably want to kill Bill Murray when he gets active but he is tied to Ace so perhaps he will be moderated.


What is the point of this post?

Encourage Bill Murray to post / state where I am / encourage Ace and Bill Murray to act as a team rather than two people with one vote if they are town
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 20 2010 06:30 GMT
#226
On September 20 2010 14:15 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2010 09:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
So this is a really basic game of mafia. If the scenario is 2 mafia 6 townies, we're best of lynching from day 1, no buts or ifs. If we have only have a doctor the scenario is the same, lynch from day 1. The only difference is that we have a better chance of survival. The thing about a cop only scenario is that if mafia claims cop and the real cop counterclaims, we'll end up in a scenario where we'll have 1 mafia, 3 townies with the cop most likely dead. We'll most likely have 1 confirmed, 2 townies and 1 mafia at the end in which case we have a 1/3 shot at winning. Now what the mafia has to be careful of is if we have both a cop and a doctor in which case our chances of winning rise significantly because we'll be able to protect the confirmed cop after we realize that we were duped by the mafia fakecop. Now our two possible options are: 1) Lynch right away or 2) Wait a day for a possible guilty report and proceed to lynch regardless if cop outs himself. If we lynch right away for a scenario where we have a cop, we have a slight chance of outting our cop but it's nothing significant. In the end because we end the game on a mylo, it won't make a difference. However if we wait a day in a situation where we do not have a cop, it'll reduce our chances of winning. It doesn't really matter what we choose to do because we don't the setup of the game.

TL;DR We can choose NL or Lynch but it all depends on which of the game setups we have. Since we don't know which one it is, it doesn't matter which we pick.


This was a really long, elegant way of saying absolutely jack shit.

That's all SR ever posts. I don't think he posts any better when townie. I think he thinks he is contributing a lot but... he just manages to state the obvious and make it mind bangingly esoteric. Very unnerving.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 20 2010 07:44 GMT
#231
On September 20 2010 16:00 Incognito wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 20 2010 09:27 Foolishness wrote:
On September 20 2010 08:52 Incognito wrote:


On September 20 2010 05:53 Foolishness wrote:
3) I've never seen a game where there was a medic/DT list created and the actual medic/DT followed it. This is forum mafia and let's not kid ourselves here, everyone thinks they're the best. I don't find it reasonable at all that the medic actually listen to what the town voted for. Add in the fact that each team has 2/3 players on it, which is going to lead to more disagreements about who to protect.


First of all, this is not true. For example, madnessman (DT) checked Sidesprang day 1, who was on the DT list in Mafia XX. Anyway, the publicity of a medic list is hard for the mafia to ignore, regardless of whether or not medic chooses to follow it. And that's the point. The point of the list is not to result in 100% anythings, and is certainly not to confirm people. The point is merely psychological. Mafia must be preoccupied worrying about things even if town doesn't follow through on it. This has nothing to do with town compliance. Unlike some other recent terribly formed schemes, this one doesn't really rely on town agreeing with it.

As for the rest of the post...when did Korynne say medics can protect themselves? I don't remember that being stated anywhere.

How do you intend to analyze the mafia without PMs and without people talking about something? Notice how people read my post and decide to respond to only a certain portion of it...

I'm still going to revert back to the point of we should be hunting mafia and not worrying about who's going to be on the medic list. If a person/team seems pro-town or more innocent than anyone else, good for them. I'm not going to waste my time thinking about who's more pro-town than who. Everyone here is well versed in mafia, we can all make decisions for ourselves about who's clearly innocent.

Not to mention once the numbers start to dwindle we can't afford to make a medic list, especially when we have days of information to analyze people by. But I can understand making a list today, or you doing this to see who votes for whom, as that can be pertinent information in the late game.

And still, medics should save themselves anyways. Everyone in this game knows that, so a list doesn't matter to the mafia since they know the medics are saving themselves anyways. I don't think the psychological impacts on the mafia are going to be there because of this fact.

I asked Korynne in a PM. It would be helpful for her to say so in the thread and/or update the rules with this fact as well, to avoid confusion in the future.


Ah. It seems that we are on the same page now.

Anyway, on to real business: [Vote]Team 1

We don't have much time till the end of the day, and very few posts to go off, but Team 1 is playing totally out of character to me. First off, LSB. In TL Mafia XXX we saw LSB the planner. Throughout all the discussion from day 1, multiple plans get proposed and shot down. LSB participated in the discussion and tried to come up with a better plan. It turns out that the town used his plan in the end. While it was flawed, this game shows that LSB as town actively contributes to the town discussion and tries to move the game forward/improve the town's situation. In PYP2, LSB didn't take such a pronounced role in the town, but still supported Radfield's plan/stated why it was fairly solid even though there could be some flaws. LSB ended up picking traitor that game, but since he was town before the role picks it cannot be assumed that he was playing the game with a mafia mindset.

In this game, LSB's activity is way down. Looking at his first substantial post, he speculates on why South could have been put on divinek/bum's team. The second post is more telling. First sentence he immediately casts doubt upon my proposal. Really, that first sentence isn't a problem with my plan, as I have addressed the non-existence of a DT/medic already. The sentence in itself doesn't necessarily say anything about alignment. Once I point out this erroneous logic however, he says he really did read my post and switches what he claims is the "main problem". This time, instead of pointing to the non-existence of DT/medic, he says blue actions will be wasted and that DT/medic won't follow the plan so its all circular logic and won't work. A valid criticism, but different from the previous criticism. In both of these posts, what does LSB propose to fix these? Nothing. Absolutely nothing. In both posts, he criticizes the plan and expresses his "concern" for the flaws. This is definitely not typical LSB behavior. LSB asks if I have an example game where this idea has been used. Relevance? I think there's none. LSB is just trying to stir the pot here. Another interesting post is when LSB states the two accusations that have been made and then says he doesn't like either of them. Its a neutral statement that says nothing. Very uncharacteristic for someone who often gives input and opinion when innocent.

Next is Pyrr. Pyrr echoes Foolishness. Doesn't tell us much. Second post is neutral/ambiguous and implies a threat against BM/Ace but otherwise says nothing. Stating that he has no suspicions is somewhat suspicious to me though. Pyrr is normally active, aggressive, and accusatory. Here, he just sits on the fence. Claiming he is trying to encourage certain behavior, when really there is little point in encouraging that at this point. Pyrr's post is meaningless and looks like fluff post. Isn't really solid evidence either way, but this behavior doesn't make me want to think Pyrr is innocent AT ALL. Given a strong case against LSB and some unconvincing behavior from Pyrr, I believe Team 1 is today's best choice for lynch.

Unless you (Foolishness) or someone else comes up with a better target. Given your attention to behavior analysis, if I could have found something, I'm sure you could have too. Looking forward to see what you think of Team 1, or any other teams.

Main Points:

1) LSB is suspicious, acting out of character, and is being wishy washy.
2) Pyrr has done nothing spectacularly pro-town.
3) Team 1 is the most scummy team right now.
4) Vote for Team 1 for lynch

LSB's plan was based on coordinating blues - we might not have a single blue this game. We can't really confirm anything because for the few roles we have... we don't even know how they work. LSB had a plan in one game - a plan that was started by Bill Murray and then edited by Pandain and then picked up by LSB. So LSB is suspicious because he hasn't posted a plan yet? I suppose the Medic plan would be an okay idea if it got us talking, but another problem I have is that I don't know who I would vote for other than LSB and I. If the medic can prot themselves, that would be their best option. The deterrence factor could be a good reason for it so we might as well do it.

My post wasn't meaningless - you asked me why I made it and I told you. Not only has BM been quieter than usual, so has Ace, who is certainly more known for plans than LSB. He usually doesn't show up and ask for an explanation unless he is subbing in and he usually tries to browbeat the town into doing something when town (same with BM who doesn't mind making crazy plans and FoSing anyone who criticizes them).

Also, I don't know BC to usually use this "RVS" tactic - it is usually a Bill Murray move. Any bandwagoning in a game this small is dangerous so if their vote sits tight under bad circumstances I will be onto them.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 20 2010 07:48 GMT
#232
On September 20 2010 16:04 Incognito wrote:
Also Korynne, as a good host you really should answer reasonable questions and be consistent in your answers. As much as its cute to answer in story mode, its just a headache if you don't tell people the rules. Not to mention unfair. Especially if you are clarifying rules in PM land.

Show nested quote +
On September 20 2010 09:35 Pandain wrote:
P.S. in addition, I'd like Korynne to confirm medics can protect themselves.


Also the no-lynch thing: A no-lynch should be allowed. Depriving the town of that option is pro-mafia and is nonsensical especially in a small game. In 30 player games, a single lynch doesn't hurt all too much, but being forced to lynch in an 8 person game is brutal. Especially since you have to lynch when there are an odd number of players left.

Yes, please clarify this stuff publicly.

I have no idea what you mean about things becoming gradually clear. Are you going to give us the rules post on Day 2? Or is there some weird Caller/Shyamalan secret twist in the rules? I don't think either of those are true but the fact I am even thinking about them at least lets you know what effect your cryptic talk is having.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 20 2010 19:53 GMT
#250
On September 21 2010 02:39 rastaban wrote:
That said I don't even know that this is a slip up since for it to be one then both players would have to be scum. It seems he is replying tho the BB's insinuated accusation that since the post is bad he is scum. Pyrr says well he doesn't post any better when he is town.

This. I've been on I think at least two scum teams (in previous games, because I apparently have to clarify that) with SR. I think I've only been in one game where he was town. Both games he made a lot of long, seemingly complicated posts at first glance that just showed the gears of his mind working like that.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 00:46 GMT
#281
On September 21 2010 05:59 Bill Murray wrote:
LSB's admission is only icing on the cake
@LSB: how would you be so CERTAIN they're scum? You have a scumlist, buddy?

Show nested quote +
On September 21 2010 04:43 SouthRawrea wrote:
So you're saying I'm posting nothing when really what I'm doing is making a post that shows that there is really no plan that we can come up with? Then pray, tell me what sort of content-filled posts you can make this early in the game? @Pyrr


This makes me confident in my earlier read
he is appealing to pyrr's authority.
Scummy, scummy, scummy.


I don't get what you mean about SR appealing to my authority. All I did was say that SR always posts these stream of consciousness posts that say very little with many words. When I was on scum team(s) with SR these worried me. When both SR and I were town aligned last game, they made me suspicious of him. I have come to the conclusion that he makes posts like these all the time. Now, when red he has made some suspicious votes so I can recommend we watch his voting carefully. If anything strikes me as scummy about SR so far, it is that he got really defensive, thinking I was attacking him when I was, in fact, pointing out that he was posting in his usual way.

I honestly don't know why LSB is suspicious of team 2. He said "we" were somehow almost certain that team 2 was mafia so maybe he has another partner I don't know about, given that I posted earlier in the thread to say SR was being SR.

To answer SR: I just thought that the fact there was no easy confirmation plan on Day 1 was rather self-explanatory but thank you for posting.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 01:21 GMT
#286
I do think that Divinek and South Rawrea are both weirdly defensive, but BM's idea for the medic was really good. I didn't realize Divinek was also on Team 2 when we talked about him.

I guess I'll have to see what SR says about that plan since he has seemed to hold steadfast that plans are bad.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 04:18 GMT
#295
On September 21 2010 13:00 bumatlarge wrote:
This is kinda funny I get to see divine in all his real towny glory, now I cant push for him

The medic plan can be used whenever so there is really no rush. I think it should be used if a player gets protected in the night, then medic can claim and be safe the rest of the game, giving us 2 confirmed. We can hold onto it til later. Hopefully we have a medic.

And do we really have to defend against every FoS against us... look at our team and then to the FoS now back to our team. Can you guys just like hold off on the finger pointing based on history for now? I I cant really keep track of this team even when Im on it

You forgot to say "this team is now diamonds!"
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 16:56 GMT
#336
Eesh. Looks like Penalty Mafia all over again. The last few games I started out placing blame all over the place and I was way off. This game I try to be more careful and be more accurate about how suspicious something is and I am "just pointing the finger" and "not taking a stance on anything." Whatever dudes.

As for my partner, he was wrong to get locked in to team 2 when he thought bumatlarge was acting pro-town. I don't know why that mistake is so suspicious but the world will never make sense to me. Going forward you should all try to avoid this mistake and go after teams that are acting in concerted ways (3,4,5,6,8).

vote no lynch
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 20:47 GMT
#358
On September 22 2010 04:50 Infundibulum wrote:
If you guys think it's wise to use our no lynch today then I'm fine with backing off. Unless i'm mistaken, the math works out the same either way as long as we use it, right? @ Foolishness, YellowInk posted an argument of substantial length detailing why he thinks we should save No Lynch for later (it's in a spoiler in his post in case you missed it).

To team 1's credit, Pyrr is not playing the way he usually does when he is mafia - it's mostly LSB that send off alarms for me. Still I think it's weird that LSB goes "we're certain team 2 is mafia" and then Pyrr denies it.

Well I agreed with him that Divinek was acting suspiciously but I didn't realize he was on team 2 when we discussed it. And I said he was acting similarly to SR; so that is how LSB got to his inaccurate statement, as far I can tell.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 20:52 GMT
#361
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate.

I think he is worried because if the votes are split between two teams it is likely the mafia will be able to save the guilty one, if one of the two are guilty.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 20:55 GMT
#363
On September 22 2010 05:51 meeple wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2010 05:39 Incognito wrote:
This post is interesting. YI wants to avoid a situation where town is divided with votes? That's interesting, since usually town gains more information from close votes...note how he splits his vote from his own team mate.

Like Pandain, the only weird votes I see are coming from Divinek and YI. Otherwise its just two teams voting for Team 1.

On September 22 2010 04:33 meeple wrote:
Well... even though I'm hesitant to use our only no-lynch this early... in a game this small we will need every scrap of information we can get... that bandwagon on team 1 seems interesting too...

unvote Team 6

vote: No lynch


If town, meeple and YI should be coordinating votes. While both voted for team 6 previously, one switched to Team 1 while one switched to no lynch. No real reason to split your votes if you're town...this 1-1 split vote makes it interesting because meeple effectively negates YI's vote. The thing is, why is this bandwagon interesting? I don't see anything interesting about it except what your partner voted.

Meeple, how are we screwed later if we "waste" our no lynch today? The only reason I can see is if a medic makes a save. And that is a terrible reason.

On September 22 2010 04:41 Foolishness wrote:
On September 19 2010 18:44 Incognito wrote:
I'm going to count on Team 3 and 6 for some strong analysis within the next 24 hours. Please do not disappoint.


On September 21 2010 17:43 Incognito wrote:
At this point we have enough information to lynch. I believe that all the mafia are out there in the open.

Foolishness needs to analyze the information we have now instead of rotting away while insisting we need more time to get information before lynch. There is plenty information out there. Anyone claiming otherwise is just too lazy to read the information here. There is no reason to wait.

So let's see, I'm running through all my past mafia games, and counting the number of mafia I nailed because they said things like this. I'm at 3 so far.

I'm very excited to see you be the fourth.


Aww, this is disappointing. You only start fishing for info now? Pretty pathetic, I might say.

***

I get why people want to no lynch. In a 1 KP game town always wants to lynch when there are an odd number of townies and don't want to lynch when theres an even number. The reason why we probably won't get any information from this lynch is because of the nolynch. Not that hard for anyone to policy no lynch when theres an even number of townies. There's nothing fishy about this lynch. The general apathy in this game is astonishing in its ability to do that. I'd rather there be something fishy about this lynch, but apparently we won't be graced with that information.


Eh you're right, me and YI aren't really coordinating that much... probably should be. I never agreed with a Team 1 vote...

About the wasting our no lynch... I was just summarizing the reservations I picked up... could've been misinterpreted though. I thought that saving our No lynch could possibly avoid a situation where we are forced to lynch but don't have a good target and as a result we lose. In any case, I don't mind using it now, since we don't really have alot of evidence or solid leads.


The thing is, if we ever get to a spot where we need to use the no lynch to avoid a bad situation, we are helped out of that bad situation even if we use it day 1... in a sense.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 21 2010 21:04 GMT
#367
RoL has been a little more active than he usually is. He's usually hella inactive green or red. But BC is surely too quiet for my liking. Where are you James?

I thought they were maybe acting similar and blue but actually RoL is way more active than normal and BC is more inactive than normal which I don't know what to think about. RVS by BC makes me suspicious, especially when he puts it on a good player and criticizes lynching inactives while doing it. Of course that teams votes have been changed to meeple / yellowink, I believe, who Incog is now criticizing. Not sure what to think on m/yi yet, other than Incog's post did not convince me.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 22 2010 02:41 GMT
#415
On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.

But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.

Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.

Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"

Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check).

What if we don't have a cop? Well the medic can let us know (or keep that to himself if he thinks it would help mafia to know). Medic claiming, as you said, "is just a useless tidbit," it won't help mafia that much because the medic can just bluff and decide to say he will prot himself while protting someone else or say he will prot someone else and prot himself, etc.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 22 2010 02:44 GMT
#416
On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.

But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.

Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.

Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"

Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check).

What if we don't have a cop? Well the medic can let us know (or keep that to himself if he thinks it would help mafia to know). Medic claiming, as you said, "is just a useless tidbit," it won't help mafia that much because the medic can just bluff and decide to say he will prot himself while protting someone else or say he will prot someone else and prot himself, etc.

Now of course mafia could fake claim medic or cop but the DT will never be at risk of claiming to a fake medic and can 100% check any tomfoolery. Maybe we don't have a DT, but any fake claim will give us a short list with at least half the reds on it. This is a small game so sorting out a fake claim could be troublesome but at least it will mean a lot of juicy discussion and if we are good we should be able to sort through it and use our judgment to find the faker and lynch them.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 22 2010 03:03 GMT
#417
On September 22 2010 10:53 LSB wrote:
Okay, lets just stop arguing combinatorics.

Medic Protecting self:
Pro: higher chance of success

Medic Protecting other
Pro: could confirm two people.

Medic, pick what you want. Take a larger or smaller risk?

Hmm... could also depend on how big of a profile the medic is. IE, if the medic is Team 2 maybe they are unlikely to get hit day 1 due to suspicion on them and less "prestige" so they will be safer protting someone perhaps more likely to get hit. Of course, the mafia may go after people unlikely to be protted just to get their hits through - I've certainly seen both strategies employed but here at TL, hitting the most prestigious (I won't say best) seems to occur more often at about a 3:1 ratio.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 22 2010 03:06 GMT
#418
I don't see anything in the rules barring mafia from hitting themselves. Highly unlikely but it does make protting someone else very very slightly less attractive since we don't know for sure they are innocent.
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
September 22 2010 07:22 GMT
#422
On September 22 2010 13:23 Infundibulum wrote:
Show nested quote +
On September 22 2010 11:41 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
On September 22 2010 08:50 Pandain wrote:
No you silly mongoose, you don't understand. You see, if we had medic claim he would have to protect himself. And then mafia would know to avoid him. Now, so what are the benefits of this?
1. We have confirmed townie(or mafia, so this isn't even that good.) We know not to lynch him.

But if he just protects himself without saying anything, then it will still have the same benefits but mafia won't know to avoid him, therefore we have the possibility of drawing hits into medic protection.

Medic claiming is just a useless tidbit that will help mafia.

Also, you got me killed because "I had no plan" that game, even though that setup was worse for plans!(no role information whatsoever) So shut that "Well we can't make plans"

Well if the medic gets confirmed it would give the cop someone to claim to, if we also have a cop. The cop could check the medic and then pass info through the medic (there's no GF role or anything to make a faulty check).


this doesn't work, no PMs between teams.

oh yeah sorry
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