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I just started this topic because the previous one was closed with the "false" statement, while the point is, it was true.
lets see the chances of finding you oponent: there are 3 starting locations lets call them A, B and C. your oponent will allways be on the position A for this explanation.
Not switching the drone:
there are 3 posibilities you send your drone to;
A) Win
B) Lose
C) Lose
1/3 chances of winning (finding your opponent)
Switching the drone (effectively using the overlord empty scout):
there are 3 posibilities you initially send your drone to;
A) lose
B) Win
C) Win
2/3 chances of winning (finding your opponent)
nothing more to add, just that this is the ideal case where the drone is at the exact same distance from all the starting locations.
User was banned because I flipped a coin, then decided I should roll a die instead of flipping the coin again.
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What? While I understood the last post, even though he made a false assumption (that the overlord knows what base is wrong). I don't even understand yours 
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8751 Posts
If you really think it works, then have fun using it. Make sure to come back to us after you've used it 100 times and show us that your drone picks the right spot significantly more than half the time. 
Everyone else knows it doesn't work. No need to re-post it here.
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Id like you to point where my explanation is wrong. I can throw a coin 100 times and get 80 heads or tails, ¿and? the chances are still 50%.
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What has that got to do with anything?
What youre saying in the first one, seems to be that if you use an overlord to scout 2 places at once, then your chances improve. Well duh.
I dont think you have even understood the principle which the other post was based on, as this seems nonsensical at best.
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wat. its 50%. you're at a. they are either at b or c.
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On April 20 2010 04:59 sovietico wrote:
I just started this topic because the previous one was closed with the "false" statement, while the point is, it was true.
lets see the chances of finding you oponent: there are 3 starting locations lets call them A, B and C. your oponent will allways be on the position A for this explanation.
Not switching the drone:
there are 3 posibilities you send your drone to;
A) Win
B) Lose
C) Lose
1/3 chances of winning (finding your opponent)
Switching the drone (effectively using the overlord empty scout):
there are 3 posibilities you initially send your drone to;
A) lose
B) Win
C) Win
2/3 chances of winning (finding your opponent)
nothing more to add, just that this is the ideal case where the drone is at the exact same distance from all the starting locations.
Holy jesus. Leaving aside the stunning arrogance that would lead you to make this thread, your logic is bad bad bad.
With 2 scouts and three possibilities, its a 2/3 chance you find them without switching anything. The only way its not a 2/3 chance is if you send your drone to the base you scouted with your overlord. We already went over why MH doesn't apply in the other thread.
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Let's brute force this then if our arguments won't convince you.
Python 2.5 code below
+ Show Spoiler +stay = 0
switch = 0
for correct in range(3):
for ovie in range(3):
if ovie == correct: #ignore case where ovie finds correct spot
continue
for drone in range(3):
if drone == ovie: #of course we don't send it to the same place as ovie!
continue
if drone == correct:#should we have stayed?
stay += 1
else:
switch += 1
print (stay,switch)
Output
+ Show Spoiler +
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This is not equivalent to the Monty Hall problem. In Monty Hall, you are given information: the host will only reveal a door that is not the prize. Therefore you increase your increase the probability of picking the correct door when you switch.
If you just arbitrarily switch your drone scout, you are not doing so based on new information. The probabilities stay even and you're probably just wasting travel time.
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This is not the monty hall problem. Reason is that your overlord has a probability of being right, while Monty hall will ALWAYS eliminate the incorrect one.
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Uh... link to the original topic as I have no idea what this is about...
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8751 Posts
On April 20 2010 05:09 sovietico wrote:
Id like you to point where my explanation is wrong.
What's the point? There were literally about 20 people who said in their own words how you were wrong in the last thread. It didn't stop you from just saying "no" to them and making another thread. Now there are like three more people in this thread who have explained how the Monty Hall problem does not apply to Overlord/Drone scouting.
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As mentioned earlier, this is not an application of the monty hall problem. At it's core, the monty hall problem demonstrates how probabilities change, perhaps "unintuitively", when you receive certain types of additional information. The key to the monty hall problem is that the game show host will always reveal a bogus door -- he is an 'omniscient' factor providing information which forces us to re-evaluate our possibilities. As I posted in the other thread, it outlines in wikipedia how if the game show host reveals a door randomly which will sometimes be bogus and sometimes be the prize, switching does nothing.
When you scout someone, it's possible that they're not there. It's possible that they are there. When you arrive to find the base empty, you aren't receiving information from an omniscient third party, so it's not a factor.
Probability and statistics is an exceedingly awesome field, relatively simple to handle if you know basic math, and provides you with all sorts of interesting insight into the goings on of the world. A great introduction book on this topic which covers the monty hall problem and another very confusing problem called "girl named florida" and much more is called 'The Drunkards Walk: How Randomness Rules our Lives"
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On April 20 2010 04:59 sovietico wrote:
I just started this topic because the previous one was closed with the "false" statement, while the point is, it was true.
lets see the chances of finding you oponent: there are 3 starting locations lets call them A, B and C. your oponent will allways be on the position A for this explanation.
Not switching the drone:
there are 3 posibilities you send your drone to;
A) Win
B) Lose
C) Lose
1/3 chances of winning (finding your opponent)
Switching the drone (effectively using the overlord empty scout):
there are 3 posibilities you initially send your drone to;
A) lose
B) Win
C) Win
2/3 chances of winning (finding your opponent)
nothing more to add, just that this is the ideal case where the drone is at the exact same distance from all the starting locations.
over lords are slow. on some maps i can scout all 3 locations with a early drone scout before my over lord gets from point A to point B
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What is "switching the drone"?
I'm not understanding this at all.
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Calgary26004 Posts
Are you fucking serious right now?
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EPT
