TL Mafia XXII

On April 20 2010 03:38 Bill Murray wrote:


you are so red

On April 20 2010 09:36 Incognito wrote:

Either way, Rage, I don't think I completely understand your proposal. When I read it I thought you wanted to scrap all the conversation before day 2 as evidence...but that seems really bizzare and ridiculous to me. Did you mean to say something else?

On April 20 2010 21:39 d3_crescentia wrote:
Quick pre-work post; probably won't be able to post that much until late. It's a good point in time to collect our suspicions and accusations so we can prioritize DT checks. We can check RaGe since we've got a lot of people pointing the finger of suspicion at him currently. Then there's others that have been pointed out like Osmoses or unexplained voters like love1another etc. but checking them probably won't give us any substantial information. Also... Zona's been noticeably absent, though he's probably been busy programming - I'd like to see his thoughts on the situation.

On April 21 2010 00:37 Caller wrote:

Rage you have failed to explain any of my concerns that I have of you, each of which individual may be circumstantial but together are quite damning.

Consider that:
a) you type very cautiously and use words like town which, although neutral, give me the impression that you are trying not to be suspicious.

b) you advocate not doing discussion on day 1, when in fact day 1 discussions are absolutely critical for further analysis. The only reason why you would want to shut down day 1 discussion (aside from forcing a lynch on a member of town, anyways) is because you want to hide or create a hiding ground for some of the inactives. It also creates less evidence: consider that mafia have a certain chance of slipping up. It only follows that the more a mafia talks the greater the chance that in one of his posts he will slip up. There's no reason to not encourage discussion, as the more townies talk the more choices mafia will have to shoot at tonight. This is especially true for mad hatters and veterans, who should be constantly being pro-town and trying to draw hits.

c) you haven't actually contributed anything despite the fact that you've read the thread and had time to do so

d) you nonetheless play the whole voice of reason card, which is something that Shinbi-chan did in the WaW game that although made him extremely pro-town served to hide his mafia intentions.

e) You haven't responded to any of the accusations other than by saying "well nobody has said anything" or "my accusers have all backed down," or by saying someone who has criticized you on random grounds as being

f) Anybody who plays the "town order and plan" card is suspicious because that is what I ALWAYS do when I'm mafia.

Please respond promptly.

On April 21 2010 03:01 Caller wrote:
Rage, congratulations, you just confirmed my suspicions of you as mafia.

Consider the facts:

every single piece of evidence I tossed at RaGe was flimsy and easily torn apart by simple, reasonable, logic. In fact look at my post history:

Let's say RaGe is pro-town. Thus he would consider his ideas to be pro-town as well. Thus, anybody that goes against his ideas would be considered anti-town and thus a lynch candidate, or they're a stupid townie. Despite reality and statistics, people generally consider me a good player, so they automatically remove me from the idea of "stupid townie" even though that is usually my role.
Thus the only apparent choice is that I'm anti-town and should therefore be lynched. This is especially because if RaGe truly was pro-town, and I not only go against him but accuse him with basically nonsense and nulltells, that this means that clearly I am mafia and he should advocate for my lynch.

But we already know that several people consider me to be pro-town despite my complete lack of intelligible contributions. Going after me may be risky, especially because it draws attention to yourself. Now what would a townie think?

a) who cares if I die, I have no role anyways, might as well go after Caller b/c he might be mafia godfather or smth!!!!oneoneone
or
b) this is too risky, if I die I might give too much information away, better to play it safe

Remember what I said about how town and mafia play? Most inexperienced mafia tend to play it safe when they can. For instance, notice how Ace (before he went trollcore) was willing to put (well, not himself) but a lot of effort and also draw attention to himself (by the way he still hasn't analyzed my posts, can I pay money for that?) when he accused me. I defended myself, but anyone can see that I instinctively concluded that because he disagreed with me, and I'm pro-town, and he's an intelligent player, that therefore he must be anti-town. Everybody does this when faced with an accusation that's flimsy. Everybody. Even the most experienced players tend to get pissed off when this is the case.

Yet what does RaGe do? He calmly dismantles my argument and then proceeds to pretend like I've done nothing wrong, aside from going against everything he thinks is pro-town (promoting unity or whatever horsehydro-evacuatedremainder he mentions of being pro-town. He himself has mentioned how he hasn't played in a while, so he's probably not pulling something sneaky here. And yet he proceeds to assume that I'm town, because he doesn't go after me at all and is like "you have a few reasonable points, etc." Why would anybody in their right mind do this? Look what even Jugen did when I accused him. He proceeded to burst a blood vessel in his criticism of me, even though it was pretty inarticulate and didn't really do anything to my credibility. Yet RaGe just kind of pretends it doesn't happen without any sort of retaliation. Unless you're the gosuest townie in the world, I think it's pretty easy to conclude what RaGe's true affiliation is.

Please, regardless of who dies tonight, check this man out.

On April 21 2010 04:15 Caller wrote:

ofc im serious everytime i make a wall of text im cereal

On April 21 2010 04:33 Caller wrote:

oh no, this one isn't a game. this one is fully serious.

explain to me the flaws with the logic you used last time, or can you not explain them?

On April 19 2010 12:22 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I know this might seem counter-intuitive, but at this stage of the game with nothing but speculation, flames and no clues, taking a random shot at this point has a 79% of killing a villager. Added to that the only people being accused of being "scummy" at this point are just people who are acting like jerks, and it would be a huge mistake to potentially cut off someone who could be valuable just because of a bad attitude.

I think Radfield is right in suggesting we go after inactives that won't get the mod hammer with our first lynch. That way regardless of whether we hit red or green, we will at least be narrowing down the field of players to those who will actually contribute and make the game more fun for everyone.

For example, whether or not we may feel that Caller is being scummy, it is day 1 and none of us really have anything concrete to go on besides the fact we may disagree with him. I just feel like it would be a waste to make an unfounded accusation and get rid of someone who is at least contributing to the game at large.

Just my two noob cents.

On April 23 2010 01:15 Korynne wrote:
I think we should lean towards protecting Ace, since RoL has not been verified yet.

I think it makes sense to read your archive RoL, since you are accusing BC. So we basically have to make a decision between lynching you and him.

RaGe, is your intent that we share what we find in the archives immediately or tomorrow? Or at all?

On April 20 2010 13:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. I wonder where Zona is though? Busy programming/making love to the robot? I'm sure he'll turn up.

Anyway some suggestions from little old me -

DT list:

Anyone suspicious and/or semi active. From my POV this includes motbob, tree.hugger, BM, TheLardyGooser. Maybe rage because of Day 1? Use your best judgment.

Medic List:

The obvious - Ace (even though he's not helping ... yet, he actually might be a DT), Zona, BC, Incognito, myself (lol )

On April 21 2010 23:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
So we lynch Caller, what happens next?

Say double lynch is in effect.

1. Caller is red. Lynch who and who?
2. Caller is green/blue. Lynch Ace and who?
3. Caller is an assassin. Do we lynch Ace in case he's also an assassin and we don't want him to "win"? But then we still need a 2nd target.

What are some possible people to lynch during the double?
- I personally don't think BC is red. I hope we don't have to lynch him just to clear up RoL's claim
- motbob isn't helping and freely admits it.

- Caller's list: ITW, Meeple, Motbob, BC

no matter what color caller flips, these are important people to look at. I guess if worse comes to worse we can just use 1 of the 2 lynches on an inactive if there aren't any convincing targets. But personally i'd rather hope we see the inactive(s) modkilled.

Gotta agree with this, the big debate only really rested between Ace, Caller, BC, and Rol and i had a couple posts in it. Given the number of people just sitting back and voting i'd wager the mafia just took this as a freebie.

Keep in mind caller's suspect list: BC, meeple, motbob, ITW.

But given the logic posted by Korynne, it wouldn't make sense for BC to be red since he was Aces strongest opponent. I'm more wary of RoL given the circumstances of his roleclaim - right after Ace, and right after I pointed out that he hadn't really contributed anything to the town since he get back, despite saying he would.

On April 19 2010 14:01 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 19 2010 13:53 Incognito wrote:
Ok. Time for some stuff.

First of all, theres a lot of people moaning that we should just lynch an inactive because we don't have enough information. These people should step it up. There is actually quite a bit of information out here to analyze. So instead of waiting for one of us to come up and hand you the information on a plate, please try to go through and look through posts organized by user.

First off, innocents.

A few people have caught my attention as very likely innocents. These people are:

Zona
BC
d3_crescentia
Caller

All the people on this list have been posting rationally. (Ace would probably disagree with me on this about Caller, but from what I remember from Caller's previous games, he didn't post like this as mafia).

Time to pull out the accusation gun.

Osmoses:

On April 18 2010 07:08 Osmoses wrote:
I'm a total newbie but wouldn't it make more sense to save double lynches as late as possible, when you have solid info to go on?


This is his first real post. He plays the I'm a newbie card, and proceeds to ask a question that is already being discussed. No contribution here. He also makes preemptive excuses for his posting, emphasizing that he is a newbie, but...you get the picture. Check out TL Mafia V for an example of Tricode pulling the same stunt. From experience, new pro-town players would not try to emphasize their newbiness, as it adds a burden for the town. On the other hand, new mafia players tend to use this to excuse their useless behavior. Panic usually sets in and they try to play the im confused card.

On April 19 2010 05:58 Osmoses wrote:
Assassins will influence politics, trying to gear lynches in their favor against the ones they suspect to be assassins... Basically they will be the very annoying players that you can't really pin as scum or townie because they have double agendas. They may just appear confused or stupid, I mean they'd have to cook up some pretty elaborate schemes to sway the votes in the favor of someone they want killed if that person doesn't act like scum.

Its really pretty tiring trying to figure out who's what and who and why with such little information, and no clues -_- The only effect assassins have on the town is their votes and their influence, but lynching the right guy seems hard enough already, so if they do sway the vote we might just get a scum anyway... Should we really even be worrying about them? Their night kills, having only 2, will surely be spent on someone they truly believe to be an assassin, so as not to waste them, and the longer the game goes the closer the odds get to 50%. Those seems like good odds.


More confusion. How ironic. Anyway...Ok...So its tiring trying to find out who is who...but you haven't said anything yet about what you HAVE found out. Oh you also say there's little information to go on? Yeah I'm sure its very tiring to look for information that's not there...in which case you might as well just have given up. Oops! Well, if you're so tired trying to information, surely you must have found at least something. Spit it out. We want to hear it.

Anyway, thats the one person who stuck out in my mind. Everyone should be looking for information instead of lying around and complaining how there is no information. Some information is there. And some of it we have to bring out so we get more information. From experience, mafia games are usually more stagnant when theres no pms. You can't call people out as effectively as you can in pmland, partially because of spam, and partially because people don't feel inclined to respond when theres more than one accusation out there. So for now, I'm going to switch strategies and only try to focus on one suspect at a time. I expect responses.


Welcome to the front lines Incog. Glad to see a familiar face whos semi friendly in these unfamiliar times.

I personally would add Bill Murray to your list of innocents. His current play style is extremely hilarious, and based on the reactions garnered has been one of the best fishing hooks I've seen. Deff town or insanely ballsy red. I find him more green however.

I am going to go back over osmosis' posts personally now to see if I have the same reaction to him you do.

However, I personally find RoL, and abenson to be fan favorite's at the moment

On April 20 2010 03:59 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
D3 posted a fairly decent list of "inactive" posters on the previous page. I am stealing said list for use of this post.

Alright, quick morning post before I go to work. I'm glad Jugan is starting to speak up. Here's the list of semi-inactives again, stolen from IntotheWow from some pages ago with some modifications -
- Hide Spoiler -

RebirthOfLegend
Scaramanga
RaGe
[NyC]HoBbes
Fulgrim
krndandaman
nbtnbt5
love1another
jpak
motbob


Now, of that list.

Rage has just started posting as of last page, to jump out of no where and point at RoL. This seems to me a very scummy sort of move.

Krndandaman has made no useful posts so far in this game. Hes don't a random one liner that didn't contribute.

Jpak I have already covered in a post above

scara has posted slightly more than a few others on the list, so i would give him a clear on a lynch target for the day.

RoL is really inactive, very off since hes normally really active.

Fulgrim is surprisingly inactive. He really needs to come out to justify it as well, not excusable based on his experience.

Motbob is being "inactive" really scummy at the moment.

The rest are all names that haven't raised red flags yet, but are stupidly inactive. Motbob and Jpak are the two most suspicious names off the list, followed by rage and RoL. Jpak is a more logical vote as he has given no real contribution nor appears too where as the other three might.

On April 19 2010 14:16 BloodyC0bbler wrote:


If he responds to your accusation, I will be impressed, he seems to be an "inactive" har har

On April 21 2010 14:46 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2010 11:16 Bill Murray wrote:
This just means we have to work harder to win, but i'm worried that there's no town circle forming. veterans like ace and bc need to get off their asses and actually do something instead of appearing bored and letting the town go to shit.

since you guys aren't stepping it up, i'll have to. since i know i'm green, we can create a town circle around me. I'm not asking you to roleclaim to me, but if you are a member of this town, and want to contribute and win then u need to listen to me.

We need to get rid of people who aren't stepping up to the plate. these players are supposed to be good and helpful players but instead they are not helping or are just posting garbage:
Tree.Hugger, Ace, BC, Infundibulum,

There are also people who have scummy suspicious posts or are strangely quiet like meeple, Zona, abenson, or KF91



Hi BM.

This post is the first one of a series I get to analyze because I'm suddenly getting jumped in the time I was at work. Now everyone, lets start the game of fun.

Notice the bolded part of the post of BM's. He wants a town circle going (yay circles) but he specifically mentions creating the circle around him.....HOW. Without the use of private messaging, no circle can form around any specific member, as he can't be their voice. In a game with post in thread only information, a circle is formed via public roleclaims (which would have to be proven). The only real way to accomplish this is for DT's to publically announce their checks, then you have to prove the dt. THey die their info is legit, etc...

Lets carry on.

Show nested quote +
On April 21 2010 10:13 Caller wrote:
obvious blue snipers are obvious
who's capable of blue sniping?

Zona
Ace
BloodyCobbler (he's REALLY good at it)
me
Incognito


Hi caller.

Let me educate you on something. I am by far the worst blue sniper on that list in this format. My entire style is based around manipulation of people via out of thread communication. Anyone who has talked to me previous would also know my style of hitting people as mafia is killing key contributors, not blue sniping. Thanks for playing though.

Show nested quote +
On April 21 2010 13:57 DarthThienAn wrote:
On April 21 2010 13:27 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Great, so I have to nail a mafia every day or you will kill me?

Fine, BC is mafia.

Rolecheck confirmed it.


In light of this, and Ace's alleged RC on Caller, would it be appropriate to double lynch today (Day 2)?

In doing so, we catch either of them if they are lying, or else we kill two scum, which seems like a great result to me.

+ Show Spoiler +

On April 21 2010 13:43 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 21 2010 12:12 KF91 wrote:
Alright, I'm going to go along with Incognito and do my part:

iNfuNdiBuLuM

Important post summaries:
- Urges people to vote to prevent a no lynch

On April 18 2010 04:43 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
I want to remind you guys that this game is running the "majority lynch" rule. This means that if no majority is reached, there won't be a lynch.

No lynch is bad for the town. It's like giving a time walk to the mafia (mtg reference nerd lol). This also means abstaining is bad! So please pay attention during votes as they operate a bit differently in this game than most TL mafias.


- Talks about the timing of the double lynch
On April 18 2010 06:34 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
@ KF91 and radfield

I have never liked double lynching early. Most of the time there just isn't a good amount of information at this time and at least 1 townie gets lynched.

One thing fw needs to clean up is whether we can have a double lynch but then only lynch 1 player. I myself doubt it.However, if we can back out, then double lynching is a little less risky since we won't be forced to do a lynch on bad info.


- Supplies the inactive list
On April 19 2010 02:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
These people have not posted yet since the game started or have made about one post with only a few lines in it of little substance:

Roffles
nbtnbt5
krndandaman
Fishball
Elemenope
tree.hugger
rebirth of legend (but he posted a lot pregame too)
RaGe
Jadefist
TheLardyGooser
Caller (wtf mate)
love1another
jpak

Now this is a rather large list (let me know if i missed anybody). One reason could be that the game started on the weekend, so don't think this is some end all be all declaration of scum/inactivity.

However, two things:

1. if we want to lynch an inactive Day 1 this is where we start
2. if you are new and not posting but are here, you should probably start! we don't bite.


- Defends Caller saying that he wouldn't pull of the same mafia act twice in a row
On April 19 2010 02:19 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
On April 19 2010 02:17 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I still think BMs plan makes the most sense if I understand it right. I feel like it would put the mafia at a much bigger disadvantage but I am still new at this?


The problem is that we have guarantee that everyone will comply, especially the Assns. As i posted before, the plan basically runs contrary to the victory condition of an assassin, so it makes no sense for them to comply. If i was an assassin i'd spend the first couple nights rolechecking people anyway, since you have so few kills.


On April 19 2010 02:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
edit: NO guarantee.


On April 19 2010 05:58 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
On April 19 2010 05:56 Ace wrote:
We can just lynch Caller since it's been shown when he doesn't post he's scum.


I dont know. do you really think he'd expect to get away with the same thing for 2 games in a row?


- Medic and DT list

On April 20 2010 13:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. I wonder where Zona is though? Busy programming/making love to the robot? I'm sure he'll turn up.

Anyway some suggestions from little old me -

DT list:

Anyone suspicious and/or semi active. From my POV this includes motbob, tree.hugger, BM, TheLardyGooser. Maybe rage because of Day 1? Use your best judgment.

Medic List:

The obvious - Ace (even though he's not helping ... yet, he actually might be a DT), Zona, BC, Incognito, myself (lol )


What makes me really suspicious about infun is the fact that he is looking very pro-town by stating is facts clearly and not getting accused that much, but at the same time, he hasn't been giving any ideas as to what the town should do. He's been giving little nudges here and there to guide the town, but he hasn't really put out a plan we should look at. He doesn't make any type of accusations about anybody and I believe that he doesn't even have suspicions against others.

He really hasn't contributed much after the Ace/Caller/nAi incident, and his last few posts have been mostly one-liners (But I guess I can't really blame him, because the thread post-Night 1 has been getting... spammy.), but it is quite noticeable how his long-drawn posts have recently turned into short one-liners.

Random trivia:
- Infun made the most interaction with Caller in his posts.
- He has made 27 posts since the beginning of the game (Using the archive, so I may be wrong)
- Voted for jpak during Day 1

Final Conclusions:
I personally believe that Infun could be a mafia. His non-aggressive posting style and his recent inactivity (Or lack of posts with content) makes me want to believe that he is mafia pretending to be a "helpful" townie member. He might have had something come up in real life, so we'll have to hear what he has to say. Of course, these are just my thoughts, so feel free to criticize me about what I think about him, and Infun can bash on me if he wants to as well. :D


Well I can't hate on you for getting analysis out there, since it's what everyone needs to be doing instead of posting useless garbage. So props. But some things you said about me simply are, well, factually incorrect or misguided.

I already explained my inactivity in another post. Real life shit; I am a busy man. Here I am posting and making up for lost time though.

I'm not sure why you think it's suspicious that I'm contributing to the town. Look at all the players that aren't contributing anything. It sounds like your concerned that I'm contributing, but not contributing enough. That's fine, I'll try to be more direct in my posts. I never bothered posting any sort of town plan in this game, largely since this game is not about specific town plans - e.g. Bodyguard plans or Assassin plans - but largely about town activity and discussion, which is why i was trying to post helpful information and thoughts about general playing strategy that will best benefit the town. Additionally, why do I have to post aggressively to be town? I have never been a particularly aggressive player, except that one time in Mini Mafia I where the town lynched me and I was the medic and I got really mad (jerks).

You say I was never suspicious of anybody..., right after a quote of my DT list of people I thought were suspicious.

I'll add a couple more:

Caller
Abenson (strangely quiet)
meeple - same as others
RoL - based on my previous analysis
Scaramanga - probably pretending to be useless

anyway i ask people to continue the incog idea of player-beneath-you analysis. hopefully this will get some inactives out of the woodworks when they see their name in the thread.





When I was going through Osmoses's posts, I noticed that too... Abenson hasn't really done anything since the beginning of the game.. pretty suspicious.



It has been mentioned multiple times in this thread we can vote on double lynch and it then is able to be used the following day.

Also, with one dt dead, and ace and RoL claiming dt(or assassin). The chances of having any more than the three is slim (possibly 1 more?) plus however remaining assassins. Heres the issue. Why would two veteran players publicly claim that they are assassin/DT day 2. Ace claimed day 1 and spent the day being a complete tard, and RoL was completely inactive. Suddenly both are saviours day 2? hardly. One if not both are completely full of it.



This game is hilarious. In the span of 6 hours, two people who were fully inactive have jumped out to "save our town" and bring us to victory. Both know the flaws of this sort of play.

However, lets start with the fun and excitement of it all.

RebirthofLegend.
RoL is typically insanely active of a player. Hiding in the shadows could be explained if he was a DT, as he would want to avoid being hit. However, with a record of activity then suddenly none at all, this would stand out to any player who has played with him, and most likely led to his death. Sudden change of behaviour like this is something someone would zero in on.
Next, as a random note. While he was posting his incriminating facts against me here he forgot one vital key. When your suddenly posting insanely actively in a thread against someone you talk to daily, blocking them or appearing offline on a messenger client, not the smartest idea (no this isn't a rule break already clarified with flamewheel that it is a legitimate). GG mate.

Motbob.
Don't let this man fool you. He has been active on TL. While he has been ignoring things like mafia, he has been streaming, being heavily active on irc, etc... Again. A player with a history of activity vanishing into thin air but still active elsewhere shows fishyness. GG again.

Zona
Hi buddy, Your on a list of suspects because of one key issue. YOUR NOT POSTING. I don't care if the excuse will be "sorry guys, was building an archiving bot to make our lives glorious". It serves no purpose as you have contributed nothing to this thread. You were initially active then faded for days, while proving you were still around but not posting. Get off your ass and help or get shot like your mafia pals.

Caller
You put me on a list knowing full well where my speciality in this game lies. Then emphasized me over Ace who is much better at behaviourally linking roles in thread. Pushing for my lynch is clever, but sadly with Ace's RC of you, your red. But don't let that stop you, your buddy RoL came in to save your by pointing a RC at me. The days of glory are upon you. A few pages and some countless spam and even you could be saved in a hilarious way yet again!

Bill Murray and DarthThienAn and ITW for all posting stupid crap regarding PM usage, and use of Double lynch that we can only vote on but not use today, are on the derailer list.

I will have more thoughts as i go back and re read. Stop making me play, I was happy relaxing.