EPTTL Mafia XVIII
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
Regarding the clues: now that everyone has a detailed profile my intuition is that the analytical value of the clues should be higher. Especially since if it is easier for the host to create the killer profile it will be easier for us to reach the same conclusions, as it will not be too obscure given you have more stuff to base it on. On February 14 2010 12:16 Ace wrote: We should NEVER rely on clues are our primary weapon for catching Mafia. Remember they are based on interpretation NOT fact. This is why I said it DOES NOT MATTER how many more people in the game are Mafia, it's always going to come down to guesswork. At the very least we can focus on behavior. Look at all the people vying for clue work when it's an easily acceptable fact by anyone that has played before that it's a bad idea. Ace, I find myself disagreeing with you here. Mainly because you may think that behavioral clues are stronger but the problem with them is that you might be interpreting an interpretation. I.e. its easy for players to get in character and assume some sort of posting pattern that would not reflect their usual written style or speech. This is especially true for veteran players, of which there are a lot in this game. Sure clue analysis still has interpretation issues but at least we know that the host has decided on a profile for every mobster and will be consistent with it. I do however think that day 1 clues are always a long stretch but thats all we got right now so they cant be ignored totally. I dont know much about Incognito's narration style, but in BC's last game some of the clues were really obvious and others were more obscure and this makes them harder to interpret. So based on that I dont think we can eliminate the connection to ace on the grounds of it being too obvious. With regards to the election Im having a hard time deciding right now since its quite late here, but Ill look through the candidatures and subsequent posts tomorrow and post my reasoning. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [ All candidatures] + NB: These are in chronological order. + Show Spoiler [BloodyC0bbler] + On February 14 2010 07:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote: As the game as begun, it is time to get it started. I, BloodyC0bbler, am running for the position of mayor. I believe the town can easily win this if we work together, as a concise unit, and do so before the mafia can create their own plans. Action must happen now. My campaign is on a platform of strength. I believe I have the strength to help pull this town together. I can analyze clues, behaviour, and can help guide blues to where they should act. The more we work together, the less we have to lose. The first lynch at the moment, as there is nothing to really go on, I believe is moot unless someone gives themself away obviously. Therefore I would lynch the most inactive player, or in the case of someone giving themself away, that person. Any other choice should be pardon'd instantly. Vote for unity, Vote for strength, Vote for bloodyc0bbler On February 14 2010 11:53 BloodyC0bbler wrote: A mayor should lynch someone who is inactive, or someone who is so obviously mafia that even their own family would sell them out. Aside from that, people start talking, more voting alllright. + Show Spoiler [Chezinu] + On February 14 2010 07:55 Chezinu wrote: I am running too!!! I always wanted to run for a position but either couldn't from inexperience or there wasn't ever one! VOTE FOR ME!!!!!! On February 14 2010 09:31 Chezinu wrote: Reason to vote me for mayor: If I was mafia: I will try to lynch the other competing mafia team and not focus on the town until we take care of our biggest threat. If I am town: I will end my insane talk and talk normally for the first time for I wouldn't have to dodge any reads. If I am either of above: I don't want to die... Tons of people already want me dead from previous games. Please don't spite... + Show Spoiler [L] + On February 14 2010 08:30 L wrote: 1) I've been trying to change my picture, but I need to find out my password. 2) I'll be running for mayor. 3) Ver's retarded and looking at clues is plenty helpful, especially since it lets you see who's pushing against who. Regardless, having people talking is better than having people not talking. Its far easier to let people be silent in a 50 man game than have them actively feign town interests. Proof? Pretty much every large game we've had. In the current game, a full 40% of people playing are mafia; while clues shouldn't be the only thing you have on someone, they should definitely play a part. Then again this is probably just my interpretation, given that I'm one of the only people who is responsible for a clue kill on day 1 or 2. + Show Spoiler [l10f] + On February 14 2010 09:06 l10f wrote: Hello fellow town members, I would like to run for mayor. And you should vote for me. I don't want to die on the first night like last time, and since my star is blue, that must mean I have a blue role! So everyone vote for me  I also agree with Ver that we shouldn't be pointing fingers with one piece of information. We should wait till we have more, and if several clues point to one person, we have a better chance of catching the mafia. Well, everyone GL HF! On February 14 2010 09:45 l10f wrote: If I get elected mayor, I plan on lynching one of the mafia from the last game I played. On February 14 2010 13:20 l10f wrote: Hmm, it looks like I won't be getting the mayor spot so easily! How about this, if I am elected mayor, instead of going on my vengeful rampage and lynching the people responsible for my quick death last game, I will lynch CHEZINU. You want to vote me now, don't you? + Show Spoiler [BillMurray] + On February 14 2010 09:48 Bill Murray wrote: I am going to run for mayor. There are two people who will benifit from this election, and I want at least one of them (me) to help the town. If you vote for people other than me, you will not be happy I am promising guaranteed liberty, equality, and power. If I am elected, I will go with the majority, because I trust people will make the right decision overall and at least two groups of ten will be working for a separate goal. That leaves the remaining 31 to try and work to eliminate these groups in the correct numbers... this is deceptively hard. You can indirectly cause one Mafia to win if you offset their numbers inappropriately. The Pardoner could win the game for the town be pardoning a mafia member that is from a group that has less mafia than the other group. I doubt many of you will vote for me, but to be honest this is a mistake. Please vote for me if you want to save the town. + Show Spoiler [meeple] + On February 14 2010 09:57 meeple wrote: I'm going to run for an elected position again. Last time as mayor it turned out really well for the town and while obviously there was a concerted effort and I won't even attempt to take credit for that, I think having an active and coherent mayor/sheriff is crucial to the town's success. So vote for me! + Show Spoiler [DoctorHelvetica] + On February 14 2010 10:09 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I'll be running for mayor/pardoner. It's always nice to have a special role, makes the game more interesting. If I am mayor, I will lynch whoever the town wants me to lynch and use my votes the way the town wants them used unless I strongly feel the town consensus is wrong, in which case I will do my best to justify my vote. I don't really like the pardoner power to be honest, I guess I would only use it to save someone who I suspected/knew was blue or under some sort of special circumstance. My limited experience hurts me here, but can any more experienced players let me in on what kind of pro-town role the pardoner really holds? On February 14 2010 13:44 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Ver has been the most sensible so far imo His accusation of bloodycobbler is based on a change in bc's posting strategy and not the loose and broad clues from Day 1. He's advocating keeping the clues in mind until they become effective later in the game: a reasonable assertion. On February 14 2010 14:10 DoctorHelvetica wrote: If I were elected, I'd probably lynch Bloodycobbler. The accusations against him are at least based on posting behavior and referenced through other mafia games + Show Spoiler [MasterDana] + On February 14 2010 10:34 MasterDana wrote: I'll run for mayor too! I think I'm a pretty nice guy and can do nice things! <: + Show Spoiler [Ace] + On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote: Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started. First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on. Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid. Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this. I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon. + Show Spoiler [citi.zen] + On February 14 2010 13:17 citi.zen wrote: So many pages of text in just a few hours - this is going to be crazy! At any rate, to the business of the day we go: 1. I will run for office. If you did not follow Incognito's last game, click here for my quals. No fancy slogans or banners. All I can tell you is that, as a rule, I trust nobody, regardless of previous game history or in-game behavior. As an example, in my last game, I kept a vigilante on call just in case meeple (the mayor) was red. At that point we had a single unidentified mafia alive and 11 townies (I think). Furthermore, meeple had already been of great help catching many of the mafia. Still, I had no way of knowing 100% that this wasn't all some devious mafia plot, so I kept the vigilante hit available. This is how I play. 2. I don't agree with Ver/Ace's contention that analyzing clues helps the mafia. Don't get me wrong, I do think it will probably not lead to correct lynches on days 1 or 2, but it will force the mafia to leave a paper trail and provide us with mid-game behavioral clues. Recognizing that was a somewhat atypical experience, that thick paper trail helped a lot in the last game. An example from this thread: the exchange between L and Ace could be very useful at some point. The conversation started from L talking about clues. That small "hook" created juicy thread. So analyze/talk/argue away I say. + Show Spoiler [Ver] + On February 14 2010 20:14 Ver wrote: Excellent. A bunch of things to cover. This thread is exploding as fast as Qatol's game. Hopefully it doesn't turn into that quagmire. 1) Bill Murray is looking very innocent to me, based on his reaction. It's the same type of scenario that those who played in Incognito's game saw with t_co, who ended up townie. 2) Clues. It's natural that new players are obsessed with clues. They seem more reliable. Clue analysis and behavior analysis are both very difficult at first, behavior slightly more so though again only Camlito and MTF have gotten people on clues in more than 1 game. To new players, behavior seems much more sketchy, so these responses are natural.. I think nearly all of the people who are crazy about clues are both more than likely innocent and simply haven't seen the terrifying power that good analysis skills can do. For an example see here chuius game 5 (despite what may be posted in the thread nobody was actually gotten on clues, that's just a coverup for reasons I don't want to go into). This game was the best town performance ever, and it went like this (7/8 mafia on lynches) because all of the best analysts and planners were on the town's side. We had 2 mafia confirmed by day 1 along with probably 15 innocents and several power roles, and several more mafia outted by day 2. That is NEVER going to happen with clues. Because the thing with clues is that you cannot know if someone is innocent. Analysis can do that. Exactly why I'm calling Bill Murray innocent. If you want to support using clues this early, then you better provide good support for it and not some lazy gibberish (like L has been doing, this is good). Just posting 'i think clues this early are still useful' with no support means absolutely nothing and doesn't help us learn anything about you. Remember as an innocent, part of your job is to find mafia. The other part is to make your innocence clear. 3) Running for Mayor. As all the vets know, I hate being in the spotlight, it's too time taxing. I ran for mayor awhile back as part of an elaborate plan and I ended up going insane because I was getting 60+ pm's a day. So my decision to run for mayor is basically, do I want to even possibly subject myself to that again (as it will affect my performance), or do I take the risk of letting another mafia get into power? And perhaps just as importantly, do I risk trusting the medics to keep me alive (hasn't worked in the past lol). I know I'm going to take hits because red blood will fly. Of course the ideal solution is that I become mayor/pardoner and I stick in the shadows without being bombarbed by half the town every day. You guys okay with that? I simply don't have the time to be answering that many pm's plus doing in depth analysis on a bunch of mafia. My plan is still under construction, not enough time yet to fully get something together. Until that plan is finalized I'll simply try to keep the town on the right track and to get people talking about suspects, because a lot of people are being very suspicious so far. More coming shortly. Okay, so here are my thoughts on the candidates: The most obvious thing first: MasterDana's nonexistent campaign and 2 liner post doesnt show any brain activity/ commitment to the role. I think either of these are pretty self-explanatory as to why we shouldnt elect him. meeple's main arguments are that he played a game where he was elected and the game turned out well for the town. Significant? I think not. BillMurray: "guaranteed liberty"??? Presents some vague clarifications of the game structure and concludes that not voting for him will be a mistake. Well if it was surely you would want to lay out a more coherent campaign convincing us of your special traits or plan. So basically not selling yourself and then blaming people for not voting for you is your fault not theirs. Also there was an incident with him last game so IMO enough responsibility for him. Chezinu: far too weird whats the point of writing gibberish all the time? I find myself subconsciously skipping over his posts and have to really concentrate to read them just for the sake of completeness. l10f: Dont like his campaign motivation plus his first voting decisions are very erratic and irrational. The others I think are all decent candidatures but I find myself disagreeing with some of the stuff. First of all I dont think DrH is a good pick, purely because the "i will lynch whoever the town wants to lycnh" sounds spinelessness to me. Also I dont like how he doesnt present a concrete target himself but agrees with another candidate (BC) on who to lynch, when he should be competing instead. Why should I vote for him rather than that BC in this case? Secondly the thing I dont like so much about citi.zen is that he has established quite a lot of credibility with people playing in Incognito's last game. Sure he did good but he was helped out by some rather unforeseen events and his blues quite a lot. So given this if he turns out to be scum loads of townies will go along with him purely because he played a good townie last game. I.e. there is a risk of the majority accepting his viewpoints not because they have thought it through but because he played well last game and hes a mayor in this game so he must be trustworthy. I dont want to vote for either L or Ace, not because I see anything suspicious about them right now, but purely because not having either of them immune to rolechecks is a good thing. Basically DTs should verify the high profile vets first, since a) The mob is likely to put forward a proven good player and not some lowlife scrub who gains no credibility by himself and b) establishing such a player as a green gives a good foundation on which to build the "circle of trust", and if they are red then their big paper trail will again be useful. This reasoning I think can be applied to BC and Ver as well, since Ver accused BC who basically said whatever. So I think our DTs going for rolechecks on these high rollers first will benefit us in the long run and so we should keep them out of immunity. So based on all of this my conclusion is that I find myself unable to put my finger on someone who I strongly trust. However I think that in all mafia games, indecision along with inactivity are the worst things that can happen. Therefore I will vote for citi.zen purely because I think that the above concerns I had can be rectified if one always keeps his "perceived trustworthiness" in mind when doing analysis. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On February 15 2010 10:58 meeple wrote: I could understand that he would get support from his analysis in Incog's last name, but 3 of those people: Fishball MasterDana dozko Weren't in that game, so in the very least, these people probably shouldn't blindly trust them. I can actually understand why people miss out some posts due to the supernova that has become this thread, but I dont think its a very good excuse. To others who have missed the argumentation of my vote its on page 29 towards the bottom. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
1: In general people who come out with large clue analysis posts in the beginning of the game are more likely to be pro town. This is because they are eager to play and help the town and so generally find it easier to write longer clue analysis posts (in the beginning of the game), as they are not burdened by the additional knowledge that a mafioso has nor have they the need to wait to communicate with the other scum to form a plan prior to posting. 2: The voting pattern. Firstly it didnt seem very chaotic to me, in the sense that it was a gradual build up without any sudden random transfers (although do correct me if I am wrong here since I cant be bothered to go through the pages again). Secondly and more importantly look at the people who have voted for him. These include three of the most active posters in the game so far - laaan, DoctorHelvetica and redtooth. This leads me to believe that he is unlikely to be a mafia candidate because if he was supported by other reds this would leave far too large a paper trail than they would like. Im not so sure what to think of redtooth but his medic roleclaim, which I believe he used to get more votes than Ver, but I am certain it was a strategy of some sort. It could either be a green survival strategy (i.e. makes the town less likely to lynch him because he is blue, but at the same time one of the more unimportant blue roles right now, with mafia KPs being high, so that he would not be killed) or a red gamble (i.e. if he knew he was going to be in office because the mafia planned to support him straight after his "roleclaim" he could use this as a strategy to conceal the sudden influx of votes, by making people think that votes are coming in for him because he claimed an important role, when in fact its an elaborate cover for his red buddies). Either way, whats important to take away from this is that he had an incentive to claim as he did, it was not accidental. Therefore until that incentive becomes clear high suspicion levels are warranted imo. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
PS. Foolishness, maybe NOBODY CARES but Im informing you guys anyway so you dont go medieval on my ass  | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
1. Gambinos: iNfuNdiBuLuM, SugiuraMidori, Mystlord + Show Spoiler + Okay so looking at the voting patterns I dont really see anything jumping out at me. All of these people voted for different election/lynch candidates or abstained. However given that the abstainee list is some 20-odd deep every vote, I think its reasonable to conclude that a large proportion of those are red, will come back to that in a bit. Im not going to cover Mystlord, since he basically made no accusations and spent the whole game defending himself/agreeing with people. SiguraMidori's first accusations: + Show Spoiler + On February 15 2010 10:15 SugiuraMidori wrote: Ver BloodyC0bbler DoctorHelvetica -M? --Just a lot of useless posts that worship the word of Ver MasterDana johnnyspazz -M? --What Malongo said, and I tend to agree. Ace citi.zen Vivi57 Empyrean LucasWoJ XeliN Amber[Light] Fishball QuickStriker 789 dozko Nikoner tree.hugger ShoCkeyy Zato-1 - M1 Fulgrim meeple Chezinu Scamp d3_crescentia L Zona Iaaan ~OpZ~ sidesprang Shikyo Caller ohN Abenson nemY Mystlord redtooth CynanMachae Phrujbaz tredmasta SugiuraMidori Bill Murray iNfuNdiBuLuM [NyC]HoBbes Versatile Faronel Malongo decafchicken l10f Foolishness madnessman ______________________________________________ Keep in mind, I refuse to label anyone as blue, so green can be green or blue! If they have no color.. I have yet to figure them out! If they are underlined.. they made at least 3 posts.. or a combined posting of about 100 words. Bold indicates any comments I made. Also refer to quotes below. Italic can be saved for something else... not sure yet, will prolly be those that abstain from a vote. Relevant Quotes: Indicates he's with S and doesn't want to lose. Wants G gone. Followed by: I got really sick and tired reading a dozen pages ago... this is really too damn much for me to deal with while trying to pass my last semester of college... I'll contribute what I can, but I'm not going to waste my time reading all the useless repetitive and often just word-worshiping that is going on here.... once some people die off and stop being pointless and repetitive I'll keep up. I also refuse to read blatant flaming or other posts with curse words or just stupid biased finger pointing without logical reasoning behind it. [flame flame flame] DrH.. you got the writer symbol.. be original, stop worshiping Ver... jeez. Ver/L/Ace... stop being redundant and pointless by posting and reposting rules and crap.. if they can't read, let the newbies suffer.. or they can ask mods.. not a hard concept. [/flame flame flame] Now mafia in general never accuse any of their own in public unless they have a valid reason. Such a reason for example are irrefutably strong clue links. As a proof of this conjecture, note how in her first accusation post Mystlord is painted green, since the focus was on the electoral race and Emp, but when on the next day it becomes clear Myst isnt gonna survive she quickly posts another list and uses it as an "insurance" that she wont be linked to him, by painting him red. So the main thing we can conclude from the above post is that DoctorHelvetica (confirmed), johnnyspazz and Zato-1 (confirmed) are not Gambino. SiguraMidori's second accusations: + Show Spoiler + On February 16 2010 09:53 SugiuraMidori wrote: Ver - Always a town suspicion BloodyC0bbler - Early town suspicion DoctorHelvetica - Town suspicion MasterDana johnnyspazz Ace - Swing Voter citi.zen Vivi57 LucasWoJ XeliN Amber[Light] Fishball QuickStriker 789 - Admitted to profile-clue matches. dozko Nikoner - Swing Voter tree.hugger ShoCkeyy Zato-1 - I still think he's red Fulgrim meeple - Swing Voter Chezinu - Has claimed DT for what his word is worth Scamp d3_crescentia - Swing Voter L - Pardoner Zona - Odd behavior Iaaan ~OpZ~ sidesprang Shikyo Caller ohN Abenson nemY Mystlord - Profile clue match? redtooth - Mayor (Claimed Medic) CynanMachae Phrujbaz tredmasta - Swing Voter SugiuraMidori Bill Murray - Swing Voter iNfuNdiBuLuM [NyC]HoBbes Versatile Faronel Malongo decafchicken l10f Foolishness - Acted red to me. madnessman _________________________________________________ I'll save Italics for potential lynch candidates. If anyone would like a medic list, I can use underline for that. Up for suggestions, updates, and fixes. I'd love if we could keep this updated and have it act as a summary. From this we see that Ver, BloodyC0bbler (confirmed), DoctorHelvetica (confirmed), Ace (confirmed), 789 (confirmed), Nikoner, Zato-1 (confirmed), meeple, d3_crescentia (confirmed), Zona, Mystlord, tredmasta, Bill Murray (confirmed) and Foolishness are not Gambino (with the exception of myst who we have accounted for). SiguraMidori's third accusations: + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2010 07:01 SugiuraMidori wrote: All right, something I've noticed, and don't go trying to hide now.. is based on the votes being made for individuals.. as there are only a few possibilities of each, and thus we can begin to stick people into groups!!! Anyone that votes for someone that isn't a main vote (bandwagon type) or abstain has the following possibilities: 1) They're both green/blue, just trying to peg another target without following the thread much or using their own suspicions and ignoring the rest of town. 2) They're both red, but they have to be on opposite teams if this is the case. 3) At least one is red and the other is anything as who would individually vote for their own team without a damn good reason in the thread or first following many others. This makes the following groups of people.. • Cheznu and Ver.. likely both fit into category 1. • Opz and DrH.. could be either 2 or 3 as there are many that suspect DrH could be red still? • Zona and 789.. L has mentioned 789 before, and others have mentioned Zona. This leads me to think category 2. • Faronel and Malango.. Again, both have been accused (if memory serves me well) thus category 2. • Opz & Lucas and nemY.. This means that there is a high chance that Lucas and OpZ are the opposite of NemY, I guess category 1. • Nikoner and myself and Scamp.. I think Nikoner is red, so Scamp won't be on the same red team, so he's either opposing or green. • Xelin and Nemy.. Could be anything. Now, applying logic... • We can group OpZ, Lucas, and Xelin as either all a red/green team, or a mix of red and greens all on the opposite side as Nemy. • We can group DrH and Nemy, most likely both red, thus making the above three a set of red on the opposite side, or more likely, a mix of the colors. As for the rest, can't correlate much at the time. And of course all the abstainers cause issues and could likely all be in a group themselves! Confused townies or various mixes of both red families not wanting to vote for fellow innocent townies or family members that have been called out in the thread. And lastly.. a post count just prior to the day end: + Show Spoiler + bill murray = 63 redtooth = 27 l = 26 malongo = 25 meeple = 24 citi.zen = 16 sugiuramidori = 14 chezinu = 13 lucaswoj = 12 mystlord = 12 ver = 12 789 = 12 amber[light] = 11 doctorhelvetica = 11 madnessman = 10 scamp = 7 nemy = 6 vivi57 = 6 xelin = 6 faronel = 5 fishball = 4 caller = 4 foolishness = 4 iaaan = 4 infundibulum = 4 [nyc]hobbes = 3 masterdana = 3 shockeyy = 3 johnnyspazz = 3 phrujbaz = 3 abenson = 3 dozko = 3 versatile = 2 nikoner = 2 quickstriker = 1 shikyo = 1 I used blank lines to seperate out groups of Heavy/Moderate/Light posters. Note how this list excludes all of the confirmed Gambinos. Therefore I think that its reasonable to assume that most of these should in fact not be Gambino: Cheznu and Ver, Opz and DrH, Zona and 789, Faronel and Malango, Opz & Lucas and nemY, Nikoner and Scamp, Xelin and Nemy. Now apart from those who are confirmed, I think the only one in the above list who has a high probability of being Gambino is XeliN. This is for several reasons. Number one: his voting pattern last game compared to it now. He never abstained from a vote (except for the election because he was running) when he had so little to go by with all the inactivity of BC's game. Yet this game with pages and pages of stuff to base his decisions on he abstains from all votes. The second reason is that with Mystlord's death the family might've been a bit intimidated by the large paper trail he left (in fact mostly irrelevant posts) and so may have decided to shift attention from the people they usually call out in public to some of their own to mix it up. Given Xelin's posting is also in stark contrast to last game's i.e. very little, they could've considered him a safe bet to "bus off" in the future and therefore started to set the scene for that to possibly happen a bit later on. The last post to consider is this one by iNfuNdiBuLuM: + Show Spoiler + On February 16 2010 08:52 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote: of course it makes sense from your perspective. a bit of a truism lol  Please keep in mind i wasnt trying to attack you, but caution you against the way you had offered yourself as pardoner. If you really are innocent you need to be more careful because the things you have said in the thread can be misconstrued. and i'll play your little game. IF you were mafia... Ace would be green L would be red - opposite team, unless he's trying to just play a heel off you right now Caller - green, his posting this game has been consistently good Chez - green Ver - red on your team. maybe? i can never read him anyway But, I never said I thought you were mafia. Of course it could have been inferred, but really I explained the point of my posts above so don't just assume I called you red Given that he is an experienced player and that no one had accused him directly its safe to assume that any people he mentions in his posts are unlikely to be mafia. Now that we have so much data on who is not Gambino, lets look at the abstainee list - following from my previous reasoning: Election + Show Spoiler + On February 16 2010 09:06 Incognito wrote: Day 1 Vote Count BloodyC0bbler (0) citi.zen (3) Fishball Faronel dozko l10f (1) Malongo meeple (0) Ver (6) Amber[LighT] Vivi57 XeliN 789 iNfuNdiBuLuM tredmasta Ace (1) Abenson redtooth (10) Ver Chezinu Caller citi.zen decafchicken meeple d3_crescentia Ace Empyrean Bill Murray L (9) Iaaan ~OpZ~ Madnessman Zato-1 Scamp DoctorHelvetica redtooth SugiuraMidori sidesprang DoctorHelvetica (2) Fulgrim tree.hugger Bill Murray (1) Foolishness Chezinu (1) L Abstain (16) l10f Mystlord ShoCkeyy QuickStriker johnnyspazz Phrujbaz LucasWoJ Shikyo [NyC]HoBbes CynanMachae BloodyC0bbler nemY ohN MasterDana tredmasta Zona Nikoner Non-voters : (1) Versatile Voting is closed. redtooth will become mayor and L will become Pardoner. Note: Versatile will not be modkilled due to forum access issues. Lynch + Show Spoiler + On February 19 2010 09:19 flamewheel91 wrote: Day 2 Lynch Vote Ver Votes: 1 Chezinu Bill Murray Votes: 2 Iaaan Amber[LighT] Mystlord Votes: 10 redtooth (x3) Fishball [NyC]HoBbes DoctorHelvetica meeple L Ver citi.zen DoctorHelvetica Votes: 0 Zona Votes: 1 789 Faronel Votes: 1 Malongo nemY Votes: 5 ~OpZ~ LucasWoJ Foolishness Bill Murray iNfuNdiBuLuM Nikoner Votes: 2 SugiuraMidori Scamp XeliN Votes: 1 nemY Chezinu Votes: 1 L Votes: 1 madnessman Abstain (19) Mystlord Shikyo QuickStriker Versatile Faronel Nikoner l10f tredmasta tree.hugger ShoCkeyy XeliN decafchicken MasterDana Vivi57 CynanMachae Caller Ohn Zona johnnyspazz LET OFF WITH A STRICT WARNING Abenson Voting is closed. Mystlord will be lynched. Phrujbaz is to be modkilled. So now we exclude those mentioned in the above posts and add Xelin as per my reasoning above and we have the Gambino Shortlist: + Show Spoiler + Shikyo Versatile l10f tree.hugger ShoCkeyy XeliN decafchicken MasterDana Vivi57 CynanMachae Caller Ohn Of those I think the most likely to be Gambino are Xelin and decafchicken. My reasons for decaf are that in the last game he played as mafia, he played in the exact same fashion to the tee; my reasons for Xelin are above. Now lets look at the Sumiyoshi and we'll cross reference and reduce the above list. 2. Sumiyoshi: DoctorHelvetica, Phrujbaz NB from these I will be excluding the obvious confirmed list of dead people, since this post is getting rather too massive. + Show Spoiler + Phrujbaz's accusations: + Show Spoiler + On February 18 2010 05:11 Phrujbaz wrote: by the way, Nikoner is Mafia. I can't believe none of you guys have noticed this yet. On February 19 2010 06:00 Phrujbaz wrote: This is a very tough lynch (as also evidenced by the large number of abstains). I think we shouldn't (yet) lynch anyone that has made at least some useful contributions. That means we should not lynch the following people: Ver Bill Murray Mystlord DoctorHelvetica nemY Zona did post a lot of text, but not really much useful. He seems to have a lot of time though, so maybe if we give him a chance, he will turn those walls of gibberish into walls of win. I do not think we should lynch him yet either. From currently voted for people, that leaves Faronel, Nikoner, and Xelin as acceptable lynch candidates, although I don't really feel enthusiastic about lynching any of them. From here we can deduce Nikoner, Faronel and Xelin are not Sumiyoshi. DoctorHelvetica's accusations: + Show Spoiler + On February 15 2010 10:21 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I got the writer symbol, be original, stop worshipping ver. Have you read the last few pages. I explained at length why i initially agreed with ver and why I changed my mind. I guess you haven't read past page 30, so maybe you aren't in the best place to be pointing fingers. A lot of useless posts? Maybe you don't think so, but I think I've been pretty useful insofar as documenting peoples arguments and points. johnnyspazz's quote isn't really even remotely incriminating. IRL things do come up, that isn't enough to immediatly paint someone red imo On February 15 2010 11:49 DoctorHelvetica wrote: meeple didn't imply that in the slightest he's just saying the trap sucks because greens could fall into it easily and he's right These arent so much accusations, but rather defenses. However given that in the previous millions of posts DrH made in the thread he had not really made any commitments for/against any players I think this could hint that johnnyspazz and meeple could very well be Sumiyoshi. He also accuses BM/Mystlord several times throughout the thread, but given they are revealed green/red I dont think we can draw any information from that + Show Spoiler [Zona] + On February 16 2010 09:40 DoctorHelvetica wrote: The "angelic killer" is not human, but rather a creature. BloodyC0bblers profile has a magician surrounded by blue light with what appears to be some sort of blue fire in his hand. However this magician is obviously human. Zona's profile leads me to believe it might possibly point to him? ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/28646.jpg?1265809096) That's Zona's profile picture. It is a bit confusing but definitely falls under "blue light" and there are no human like characteristics to be found in it. Also consider Zona's very inactive posting behavior compared to the last game. That's all I could come up with and neither seem as strong as Empyrean did : / Its pretty clear that Zona is not Sumiyoshi given that after so many worthless posts DrH finally decides to do some clue analysis, so its not going to be radically good or point towards anyone in his family. Now going back to the Gambino shortlist, we see that Nikoner is basically 100% green, unless we are very unlucky, since he is shunned by both mafia families. This same line goes for Faronel. Im very certain that both of these are townies. Xelin is hinted at not being Sumiyoshi, but given my strong argument for him being Gambino I think this post by Phrujbaz is an additional argument as to why this is the case. From DoctorHelvetica's posts we can gather that Zona isnt in his family and that also perhaps meeple and johnnyspaz are. Given that meeple is not on the abstainee list this analysis cant really conclude anything about him, but notice how johnnyspazz is not likely to be gambino from my previous section. Therefore why would DrH go out of his usual line of spamming, in order to defend some random townie? This is a pretty strong case of johnnyspazz being Sumiyoshi IMO. In conclusion: I believe that the people most likely to be mafia are: Xelin (Gambino), decafchicken (Gambino/Sumiyoshi) and johnnyspazz (Sumiyoshi). Given my experiences from the previous game however, I will vote for Xelin for now. However I strongly believe that all of these are red. The remainder of the people in red in the Gambino Shortlist are people who I have suspicions about, but who remain under the radar because the revealed scum have not made any reference to them. I also suggest that people look at those very closely. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
The clues against mystlord were pretty strong and so its natural for your team to avoid his defense or push for his lynch when you saw what was coming. Also bear In mind this was an analysis on rooting reds from the "abstainee" list and as such is abstracted from any clues. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
Today: Lynch QS Tomorrow: Lynch jspaz, decafchicken Look at my post from Feb 21 to see why we should be lynching jspaz and decaf already. L im virtually certain is townie but is playing rather badly and whats even worse people trusted him "cause hes a vet". I think a better solution than lynching him is just to ignore whatever he says, although if the above 3 all turn sumiyoshi we can safely take our nerdrage out on him, just not now. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
People voting for jspazz I can understand, I firmly believe he is mafia due to his earlier voting patterns (+ the fact that he radically changed them after my post was out) and due to the words of his fellow scum. Given that I already wrote loads on that and that his posting pattern is plainly red I dont understand why we are sparing him any longer? L i can also understand, I mean intentionally or not the fact is he screwed us over and his subsequent posts did not really offer any reparations so to speak. However as I have previously stated I do not think he is red but I can get why people want to get rid of him out of anger and the desire to satisfy their curiosity. Here's two things I do not understand though. Firstly why are people voting Chez off ? Surely he proved himself by the QS lynch (unless I missed something here), else we'd still be looking at a sumiyoshi family with 3 kp. So why are people suddenly voting for him, surely there are much better candidates? It does not make any sense; people voting for him have no justification in my eyes apart from random selection. The other person not collecting any votes, which I find surprising, is tree.hugger. I mean I played in the same game as him and his lack of activity this game seems highly suspicious. Plus I thought ver's postmortem (ha) analysis was very convincing. I think the only clear lynch right now should be jspazz. I would very much appreciate it if people voting for Chezinu could post their reasons, especially my earlier suspect XeliN who I dont want people to lose sight of; and Abenson, whose entire game participation consists of 1 liner posts and yet he is always quick to vote on an uncertain lynch. To me it seems like he might be the puppet of a more experienced mafioso. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On February 27 2010 14:18 johnnyspazz wrote: dozko, its obvious you are mafia and thats why im voting to lynch you Interesting why you post this without being asked? Although it does seem rational you would try to undermine my credibility with empty threats, after my analysis pretty much outed you before your "roleclaim" fiascos even began. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
On February 27 2010 14:24 Malongo wrote: Dozco how do you feel about lynching Shockeyy¿ Guy is nowhere to be seen and his voting pattern is fishy as hell. Add a few notes here and there and the fact that he was voting along with Quickstriker (he voted with 1 minute diff first day). What about the same in Cynanmachae¿ A quick look through the posts they made quickly explains why my initial thoughts were "these guys could be anything". They basically did not produce a single concrete accusation in any of their posts and most of them were on "narrating" events or some random general mafia theory/spam. The lack of content does indeed generally hint red, however as I stated previously lets go after the people we have already discussed and have seemingly solid leads on first. Strategies conditionally based on current information, I believe, are more valuable in comparison to the "general mafia theory red tell" that they are exhibiting. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
talking through the plan for a day and then on the last minute 50% go inactive, fucking swell. | ||
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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dozko
United Kingdom160 Posts
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