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We're into our second round of groups here in the MST, and there's no turning back. The cruel test of the Bo1 has made some of our champions stumble, and made others crumble, and still others have made their case convincingly. There were some surprises this last week, and if you want to know them, I guess you'll just have to keep reading!
Also included is a look ahead to groups 7, 8 and 9, which begin in just a few short days, so there's plenty more from the MST to look forward to, and plenty of chances to cross your fingers for your favorite players.
MSL Survivor Groups 4-6 Recap
Group 4
Live Report Thread
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAOrIy9HmHY
This game was, frankly, over before it began. PianO's TvP is his worst matchup, by far, and BeSt, sporting very solid PvT, was the only player to beat Flash during his rampage. PianO's only shot was to escape into the midgame unmolested and exploit some unexpected aggression. Unfortunately, PianO was gas stolen—twice, and his bunker rush was rejected. It didn't help PianO either when BeSt sent 3 dragoons on a rampage though his main. Those three plays really put PianO, who only had a shot if everything went his way, too far behind to come back. BeSt's reaver just made things worse, and put an already desperate PianO in a helpless position. With an arbiter a short time later, BeSt's macro clicked in and finished PianO off.
This game was, frankly, over before it began. PianO's TvP is his worst matchup, by far, and BeSt, sporting very solid PvT, was the only player to beat Flash during his rampage. PianO's only shot was to escape into the midgame unmolested and exploit some unexpected aggression. Unfortunately, PianO was gas stolen—twice, and his bunker rush was rejected. It didn't help PianO either when BeSt sent 3 dragoons on a rampage though his main. Those three plays really put PianO, who only had a shot if everything went his way, too far behind to come back. BeSt's reaver just made things worse, and put an already desperate PianO in a helpless position. With an arbiter a short time later, BeSt's macro clicked in and finished PianO off.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k-H1mzPVwCc
Firefist opened with a 12 pool, while Leta opted to block Firefist's natural with his engineering bay. Firefist dropped a hatchery beside it, and had his second one placed before Leta had even completed his wall-in. All Firefist needed to see after that was the one factory to know for sure that Leta has become a one-trick TvZ pony, and dropped his spire to prepare for the coming wraiths. After his wraiths produced no economic damage, Leta secured his natural, and the wraith/muta ling/rine battles began with some firebats, scourge and valkyries thrown in. Leta moved out to Firefist's newly secured third, but some clutch lurker timing saved the expansion and destroyed Leta's army and it was downhill from there, as Firefist rode his economic advantage to the win.
Firefist opened with a 12 pool, while Leta opted to block Firefist's natural with his engineering bay. Firefist dropped a hatchery beside it, and had his second one placed before Leta had even completed his wall-in. All Firefist needed to see after that was the one factory to know for sure that Leta has become a one-trick TvZ pony, and dropped his spire to prepare for the coming wraiths. After his wraiths produced no economic damage, Leta secured his natural, and the wraith/muta ling/rine battles began with some firebats, scourge and valkyries thrown in. Leta moved out to Firefist's newly secured third, but some clutch lurker timing saved the expansion and destroyed Leta's army and it was downhill from there, as Firefist rode his economic advantage to the win.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfajUZ_h_ew
BeSt impressed in this game. His PvZ has always been his weakest matchup, and Firefist has been looking very good lately. BeSt was poised, collected, and brutal in this game, which is more than can be said for Bisu's loss to Shine. Firefist opened mutalisks, which appeared to do a lot more damage than they actually did, and instead of panicking, BeSt morphed an archon and built corsairs, chasing the mutalisks away, while his zealot raid killed a good number of drones at Firefist's natural. BeSt moved swiftly to secure an expansion. Firefist attacked it mindlessly for basically the rest of the game, and BeSt displayed his new PvZ confidence by holding on, gathering himself, and then completely overpowering a depleted Firefist, to take the MSL berth.
BeSt impressed in this game. His PvZ has always been his weakest matchup, and Firefist has been looking very good lately. BeSt was poised, collected, and brutal in this game, which is more than can be said for Bisu's loss to Shine. Firefist opened mutalisks, which appeared to do a lot more damage than they actually did, and instead of panicking, BeSt morphed an archon and built corsairs, chasing the mutalisks away, while his zealot raid killed a good number of drones at Firefist's natural. BeSt moved swiftly to secure an expansion. Firefist attacked it mindlessly for basically the rest of the game, and BeSt displayed his new PvZ confidence by holding on, gathering himself, and then completely overpowering a depleted Firefist, to take the MSL berth.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhS_axT5wQo
Leta and PianO met in the loser's game on Byzantium, with Leta spawning at the 7 o'clock position, PianO at 4 o'clock. This game was pretty one sided, as would be expected, and the interest factor was not assisted by how similarly they opened. Both opened with similar fast factory builds, but Leta committed to vultures. Despite PianO's SCV antics, he was in an un-winnable position, and Leta earned himself a second shot.
Leta and PianO met in the loser's game on Byzantium, with Leta spawning at the 7 o'clock position, PianO at 4 o'clock. This game was pretty one sided, as would be expected, and the interest factor was not assisted by how similarly they opened. Both opened with similar fast factory builds, but Leta committed to vultures. Despite PianO's SCV antics, he was in an un-winnable position, and Leta earned himself a second shot.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGoleMdUv2g
Surprise! Leta delayed Firefist's expansion again. Leta went double port wraith again. And the wraiths didn't inflict any economic damage on Firefist once again. Sigh. Leta's wraiths grappled with Firefist's mutalisks, Firefist secured a third, etc., etc., etc. It was clear Leta learned nothing from their first encounter. Firefist was never really pressured in a strategy that really depends on applying pressure to make up for the lack of the economic benefits of a fast expansion. It didn't help that Firefist absolutely rejected Leta's first sneaky vulture, but it would be remiss to blame his failure on that. Firefist overwhelmed Leta with his economic advantage to win the game and gain the second berth from this group.
Surprise! Leta delayed Firefist's expansion again. Leta went double port wraith again. And the wraiths didn't inflict any economic damage on Firefist once again. Sigh. Leta's wraiths grappled with Firefist's mutalisks, Firefist secured a third, etc., etc., etc. It was clear Leta learned nothing from their first encounter. Firefist was never really pressured in a strategy that really depends on applying pressure to make up for the lack of the economic benefits of a fast expansion. It didn't help that Firefist absolutely rejected Leta's first sneaky vulture, but it would be remiss to blame his failure on that. Firefist overwhelmed Leta with his economic advantage to win the game and gain the second berth from this group.
Group 5
Live Report Thread
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g7wY8j3AB_E
Apparently Flash used the KesPA referee disconnect to contemplate how many factories he was going to make before he added a third command center. His answer was 2. Despite DaezanG's early pressure off of one gate tech, Flash repelled the assault and just started doing that obnoxious macro thing he does. The two players basically left each other alone until Flash sent a vulture drop into DaezanG's main, which looked as though it would hardly accomplish anything until a couple of lucky mine explosions destroyed every probe in DaezanG's main. DaezanG moved out and forced a liftoff of Flash's third and made him cancel his fourth, and they traded blows across Byzantium, but Flash gained ground with nearly each engagement. DaezanG used his arbiters extremely well throughout the game, but it wasn't enough to stop Flash's TvP.
Apparently Flash used the KesPA referee disconnect to contemplate how many factories he was going to make before he added a third command center. His answer was 2. Despite DaezanG's early pressure off of one gate tech, Flash repelled the assault and just started doing that obnoxious macro thing he does. The two players basically left each other alone until Flash sent a vulture drop into DaezanG's main, which looked as though it would hardly accomplish anything until a couple of lucky mine explosions destroyed every probe in DaezanG's main. DaezanG moved out and forced a liftoff of Flash's third and made him cancel his fourth, and they traded blows across Byzantium, but Flash gained ground with nearly each engagement. DaezanG used his arbiters extremely well throughout the game, but it wasn't enough to stop Flash's TvP.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBDovZ7BPEQ
This game looked mysteriously like the BeSt/Firefist game, except Anytime isn't BeSt, and Firefist isn't hero. hero's ZvP is not to be underestimated, as he has consistently shown a deep understanding of the matchup, and Anytime is on a slow decline. That was essentially the difference in this game, as Anytime failed repeatedly to protect his templar, and could not hold the swarm of hydralisks away from this third. hero won the game with ease, showing confidence and aptitude, and loads of promise.
This game looked mysteriously like the BeSt/Firefist game, except Anytime isn't BeSt, and Firefist isn't hero. hero's ZvP is not to be underestimated, as he has consistently shown a deep understanding of the matchup, and Anytime is on a slow decline. That was essentially the difference in this game, as Anytime failed repeatedly to protect his templar, and could not hold the swarm of hydralisks away from this third. hero won the game with ease, showing confidence and aptitude, and loads of promise.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCCSsVi-Yg0
The first thing that stuck out about this game was that Flash was showing us pure bio play again. There was no mech spin on it, no early vulture or wraith harass, even on a map that's typically quite apt for mech play in Heartbreak Ridge. All things considered that may have confused hero, but he nonetheless opted for a build that covers most bases in 2 hatch muta, but then, 2 hatch muta which does no damage and which is followed up by lurkers generally has a hard time succeeding, especially against Flash. The game turned into a 5 minute muta/marine dance, and it shouldn't take long to figure out who wins that battle. Flash slowly gained ground with his m&m numbers, then his lead exploded when he took down hero's third, and the deficit became nigh insurmountable by the time Flash dropped hero's main. hero looked completely outclassed the whole game, and he was. Flash looks like he's been polishing his m&m play, which would go a long way to strengthening his relatively weak TvZ (okay, it's not weak, but it is his worst matchup). Flash was everywhere this game, and showing us some of his strongest play in some time, he took the first MSL berth from this group commandingly.
The first thing that stuck out about this game was that Flash was showing us pure bio play again. There was no mech spin on it, no early vulture or wraith harass, even on a map that's typically quite apt for mech play in Heartbreak Ridge. All things considered that may have confused hero, but he nonetheless opted for a build that covers most bases in 2 hatch muta, but then, 2 hatch muta which does no damage and which is followed up by lurkers generally has a hard time succeeding, especially against Flash. The game turned into a 5 minute muta/marine dance, and it shouldn't take long to figure out who wins that battle. Flash slowly gained ground with his m&m numbers, then his lead exploded when he took down hero's third, and the deficit became nigh insurmountable by the time Flash dropped hero's main. hero looked completely outclassed the whole game, and he was. Flash looks like he's been polishing his m&m play, which would go a long way to strengthening his relatively weak TvZ (okay, it's not weak, but it is his worst matchup). Flash was everywhere this game, and showing us some of his strongest play in some time, he took the first MSL berth from this group commandingly.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbb7jWthg6Y
DaezanG and Anytime met in the loser's match in probably the least inspiring game of the MST. What transpired was essentially what happens when one player chooses to expand in a mirror matchup, and the other chooses to build units and attack. With halfway decent micro, the outcome should be obvious. DaezanG didn't play particularly well, Anytime didn't play particularly poorly, though his quick and unaffecting performance was something of a disappointment. DaezanG moved on to for a second shot at qualifying.
DaezanG and Anytime met in the loser's match in probably the least inspiring game of the MST. What transpired was essentially what happens when one player chooses to expand in a mirror matchup, and the other chooses to build units and attack. With halfway decent micro, the outcome should be obvious. DaezanG didn't play particularly well, Anytime didn't play particularly poorly, though his quick and unaffecting performance was something of a disappointment. DaezanG moved on to for a second shot at qualifying.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LT5tI8U54XQ
First off, you have to give DaezanG credit for having, per the colloquialism, “balls.” He built only one cannon against a 9 pool he scouted, and managed to minimize the damage hero did, losing only a probe or two. Indeed, up until hero's mutalisks showed up, it looked as like DaezanG was in the thick of it, though it would have been charitable to say he was ahead because of a failed zealot attack on hero's third. The rest was pretty much downhill for hero, as his mutalisks did way more damage than they should have, and his macro is just plain better than DaezanG's. hero didn't have to work too hard to make it through to the MSL.
First off, you have to give DaezanG credit for having, per the colloquialism, “balls.” He built only one cannon against a 9 pool he scouted, and managed to minimize the damage hero did, losing only a probe or two. Indeed, up until hero's mutalisks showed up, it looked as like DaezanG was in the thick of it, though it would have been charitable to say he was ahead because of a failed zealot attack on hero's third. The rest was pretty much downhill for hero, as his mutalisks did way more damage than they should have, and his macro is just plain better than DaezanG's. hero didn't have to work too hard to make it through to the MSL.
Group 6
Live Report Thread
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQKBok4c62Y
I've found myself on occasion asking why certain progamers open 9 pool on maps like Heartbreak Ridge, but I never question anything July does in ZvP, and I didn't even when his 9 pool flopped horribly against Pure's deft probe deflection. I can't shake the feeling that that failed 9 pool, though, in conjunction with July's rather benign mutalisk attack, is what allowed Pure to be so bold in moving out with the zealot attack on the third that we've seen oh-so-many times on Heartbreak Ridge, and move out to be the aggressor rather than the passive defender of his third. When you watch the game, July just didn't have enough units, and sacrificing a more solid economy for early aggression may have cost July the game here. He may also just not be the player we knew, but I never thought his ZvP would look so harmless. I don't mean to take anything away from Pure's play; he played well and reacted exactly how he should have, but with all the Protoss players dropping games to Zergs lately, I didn't really see the master of ZvP dropping to an inconsistent Pure, so maybe it was just his build, maybe it was a lack of focus, or maybe he's just not the July we used to know.
I've found myself on occasion asking why certain progamers open 9 pool on maps like Heartbreak Ridge, but I never question anything July does in ZvP, and I didn't even when his 9 pool flopped horribly against Pure's deft probe deflection. I can't shake the feeling that that failed 9 pool, though, in conjunction with July's rather benign mutalisk attack, is what allowed Pure to be so bold in moving out with the zealot attack on the third that we've seen oh-so-many times on Heartbreak Ridge, and move out to be the aggressor rather than the passive defender of his third. When you watch the game, July just didn't have enough units, and sacrificing a more solid economy for early aggression may have cost July the game here. He may also just not be the player we knew, but I never thought his ZvP would look so harmless. I don't mean to take anything away from Pure's play; he played well and reacted exactly how he should have, but with all the Protoss players dropping games to Zergs lately, I didn't really see the master of ZvP dropping to an inconsistent Pure, so maybe it was just his build, maybe it was a lack of focus, or maybe he's just not the July we used to know.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOGr2AQYlQ0
This has to be the kind of game that just makes a coach furious. Is Yarnc the better player? Absolutely. But you could just feel that Yarnc was severly underestimating RuBy, who, while his other matchups leave something to be desired, has TvZ that must be respected. It's a terrible sign when you see one player commit to early aggression and you can feel throughout the game that the game is firmly in the control of their opponent. This game was a perfect example of why Yarnc will never be a Starleague champion in this current state: his decision making can be just plain awful sometimes. I know Heartbreak Ridge screws with zergs trying to take a fourth gas, but Yarnc's late game defiler/lurker/ling play is in the end probably better than RuBy's late game control, so I don't understand the choice to go all-in, and I think that's more or less where Yarnc underestimated his opponent's micro and general ability. Yarnc made it very easy for RuBy by doing two things: not building drones, and overestimating his own micro. While I don't criticize him for going 2 hatch muta, which I think is as strong a ZvT build as any on Heartbreak Ridge, I do criticize his commitment to lings in the early going, which is also where I think he underestimated RuBy and RuBy's marine control. This was was very easy game for RuBy to take after he shut down Yarnc's lings with a couple firebats.
This has to be the kind of game that just makes a coach furious. Is Yarnc the better player? Absolutely. But you could just feel that Yarnc was severly underestimating RuBy, who, while his other matchups leave something to be desired, has TvZ that must be respected. It's a terrible sign when you see one player commit to early aggression and you can feel throughout the game that the game is firmly in the control of their opponent. This game was a perfect example of why Yarnc will never be a Starleague champion in this current state: his decision making can be just plain awful sometimes. I know Heartbreak Ridge screws with zergs trying to take a fourth gas, but Yarnc's late game defiler/lurker/ling play is in the end probably better than RuBy's late game control, so I don't understand the choice to go all-in, and I think that's more or less where Yarnc underestimated his opponent's micro and general ability. Yarnc made it very easy for RuBy by doing two things: not building drones, and overestimating his own micro. While I don't criticize him for going 2 hatch muta, which I think is as strong a ZvT build as any on Heartbreak Ridge, I do criticize his commitment to lings in the early going, which is also where I think he underestimated RuBy and RuBy's marine control. This was was very easy game for RuBy to take after he shut down Yarnc's lings with a couple firebats.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o9pdQBRDzOQ
This game started out like many a PvT, with RuBy opening 1 factory expand, and Pure putting some early pressure on the wall-in before expanding. Everything was looking rather good for Pure, who got away with taking a fast third, and even did a decent job in his reaver harassment. Things started to go wrong when he made the transition to carriers. He was still on only two gates when he started his third, and so RuBy took the timing window before the carriers were ready to take a shot at Pure's third, which forced the carriers to be revealed a little earlier than Pure would have liked. From there, with Pure having no ground army after suiciding it into RuBy's front, it was all up to the carriers, and RuBy looked stronger than normal in his TvP as he made the rest of the game a nightmare for his opponent, attacking multiple locations, defending solidly and standing alert and on top of his game. Though I doubt many saw it coming, RuBy definitely earned his berth.
This game started out like many a PvT, with RuBy opening 1 factory expand, and Pure putting some early pressure on the wall-in before expanding. Everything was looking rather good for Pure, who got away with taking a fast third, and even did a decent job in his reaver harassment. Things started to go wrong when he made the transition to carriers. He was still on only two gates when he started his third, and so RuBy took the timing window before the carriers were ready to take a shot at Pure's third, which forced the carriers to be revealed a little earlier than Pure would have liked. From there, with Pure having no ground army after suiciding it into RuBy's front, it was all up to the carriers, and RuBy looked stronger than normal in his TvP as he made the rest of the game a nightmare for his opponent, attacking multiple locations, defending solidly and standing alert and on top of his game. Though I doubt many saw it coming, RuBy definitely earned his berth.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6MipGtzqhs
The golden mouse winner against the OSL runner up in the losers match. It was disheartening for me, both a Yarnc fan and a July admirer, to see these two meet here. In a battle to see who had come less prepared for the day's games, July won out, despite being contained and never quite looking comfortable, but in the end he displayed crisper micro and better sense, despite suiciding his lings and a little brain mistake in letting Yarnc's scourge hit his first 3 mutalisks. Though Yarnc continued his stretch of poor decision making and generally uninspiring play, July did earn his second chance.
The golden mouse winner against the OSL runner up in the losers match. It was disheartening for me, both a Yarnc fan and a July admirer, to see these two meet here. In a battle to see who had come less prepared for the day's games, July won out, despite being contained and never quite looking comfortable, but in the end he displayed crisper micro and better sense, despite suiciding his lings and a little brain mistake in letting Yarnc's scourge hit his first 3 mutalisks. Though Yarnc continued his stretch of poor decision making and generally uninspiring play, July did earn his second chance.
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+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eqdn-ErVR78
I was really glad to see the Pure/July rematch here, because I wanted to see if what we saw in the first game was real. This time July opted for 5 hatch hydra on Byzantium 3, forsaking the 9 pool for the 12 hatch foundation. Pure sent some dark templar wandering around the map, really not doing anything of note because of July's preventative defense. Pure demonstrated that he really has no fear of hydralisks, or July for that matter, trading blows with July up and down the map while securing his third. But the hydras proved to be too much, as even in spite of some good storms July got a decisive leg up in the constant conflicts and a group of hydras leveled Pure's third. Pure attempted a half-hearted counter to July's as yet unpopulated fourth, but he would much rather have had those zealots at his main, as the hydras which laid his third low moved for the natural bust, and were not stopped. The dominant performance in the final set against Pure secured July the second slot from his group, and redeemed for his first set loss, and maybe let fly another spark of hope for this old legend.
I was really glad to see the Pure/July rematch here, because I wanted to see if what we saw in the first game was real. This time July opted for 5 hatch hydra on Byzantium 3, forsaking the 9 pool for the 12 hatch foundation. Pure sent some dark templar wandering around the map, really not doing anything of note because of July's preventative defense. Pure demonstrated that he really has no fear of hydralisks, or July for that matter, trading blows with July up and down the map while securing his third. But the hydras proved to be too much, as even in spite of some good storms July got a decisive leg up in the constant conflicts and a group of hydras leveled Pure's third. Pure attempted a half-hearted counter to July's as yet unpopulated fourth, but he would much rather have had those zealots at his main, as the hydras which laid his third low moved for the natural bust, and were not stopped. The dominant performance in the final set against Pure secured July the second slot from his group, and redeemed for his first set loss, and maybe let fly another spark of hope for this old legend.
MSL Survivor Groups 7-9 Preview
Group 7
Game 1:
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Game 2:
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Winners Game: Game 1 Winner < Byzantium 3 > Game 2 Winner
Losers Game: Game 1 Loser < Byzantium 3 > Game 2 Loser
Final Game: Game 3 Loser < Heartbreak Ridge > Game 4 Winner
Every game by fOrGG is interesting. He is the most anemic player in professional Starcraft today, perhaps in the history of the game. They're not interesting in the sense that he has a bold cunning, or an interesting style, or that he just has some dumb random luck where he plays a standard style and his games end up being exciting. No, fOrGG is interesting because he was so good, but now he's bad. Every game he's played since his MSL victory is another look at what's happened to him since that peak. I definitely didn't mean his style was interesting--don't get me wrong, his play is boring. Very boring.
To contrast with the player he will be facing off against, most games by RorO are funny, if you think that medicore Zergs are funny. Now, I'm not trying to alienate the 3 RorO fans on Teamliquid, especially because I'm actually something of a RorO fan, if you can call it that. I like him because he always looks like he's trying really hard, no matter what, and that's worthy of respect, but he's just generally outclassed.
It's fascinating that when you put a Terran who plays a boring style and a mediocre Zerg together, you get what looks to me like a very interesting game. fOrGG has played better Starcraft than RorO has, and he arguably has more talent, but RorO can play very well sometimes, and his games against e-Sport's version of watching paint dry will be fascinating to see who comes out: the robotic former Starleague winner or the kid with a ton of heart, but marginal talent.
The next game, Nbs against Stork, should be a sleeper. Stork has displayed fantastic PvP in the past, and Nbs on the other hand has never won a broadcasted PvP match. In his defense, he hardly plays in televised matches (which is hardly a reason to be confident in him winning), but his only recorded PvP wins have been in prelims, and then usually against generally middling opponents.
I expect RorO against Stork in the winner's game, which is probably going to go to Stork but is more of a tossup than it seems on its face. Perhaps I'm showing my largely unconscious and inexplicable RorO bias, but he is definitely capable of taking the game. Still, it's been a while since we've seen any of Stork and he is the one of the most consistent players in the game today, so he should be expected to advance regardless of his opponent.
Nbs against fOrGG will be even less riveting than Nbs against Stork. With all fairness, Nbs' PvT is probably worse than his PvP, and the fact that it's so difficult to be sure is definitely not a vote of confidence for Nbs. At this point, it makes sense to lean on fOrGG's history over Nbs' consistent medicority.
So, the final match should be RorO and fOrGG again. And I'm taking RorO again, but it could easily go either way, especially if RorO makes, as is typical of him, some silly micro mistakes.
Predictions:
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Group 8
Game 1:
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Game 2:
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Winners Game: Game 1 Winner < Destination > Game 2 Winner
Losers Game: Game 1 Loser < Destination > Game 2 Loser
Final Game: Game 3 Loser < Byzantium 3 > Game 4 Winner
Playing by name recognition you'd be tempted to pick Kal, but not so fast. Kal's once-proud PvZ has taken a turn for the worse. He is 3-9 in his last 12, including two losses to no-name Zerg
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The next set is go.go against Orion, a Sparkyz Terran against a CJ Zerg. Though I've seen some rallying cries here and there, it seems as though nobody wants to get on the Bug Terran bandwagon. Nobody. And why should we? Aside from a couple tough wins in Winner's League, he's not been impressive. Across from him is Orion, a CJ Zerg of possibly the least note in the entire lineup. These two met before, about two years ago in the 13th MST, where they split their games. I expect a tight contest, but Heartbreak Ridge might be the determining factor here, so I expect a go.go win.
If Kal escapes Hydra, and go.go battles through Orion, Kal will get to show us his best matchup, and go.go his worst. If Kal makes it, Kal should make this MSL. If Hydra does, as much as my spleen disagrees with this proposition, go.go should take the first berth in this group. The fact of the matter is that Hydra has never shown much flair, and his ZvT is unpredictable. Kal against Orion, though, is probably the most interesting possibility. If Kal makes it through Hydra, it is possible that his PvZ is back in form, and Orion's ZvP is his best matchup. I'm willing to drink the Kal kool-aid if he can beat Hydra, mostly because I've been consistently unimpressed by practically every game Orion has played.
Hydra against Orion will be an absolutely depressing contest if it happens, while simultaneously being unpredictable. This will take us to the final game, where the fact that one of these players must be given a berth into the MSL being a sobering fact. Assuming that Kal has done his practicing, it'll be go.go against an unaccomplished Zerg. go.go has occasionally been dominant in the matchup, so it should probably go to him.
Predictions:
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Group 9
Game 1:
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Game 2:
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Winners Game: Game 1 Winner < Heartbreak Ridge > Game 2 Winner
Losers Game: Game 1 Loser < Heartbreak Ridge > Game 2 Loser
Final Game: Game 3 Loser < Destination > Game 4 Winner
It's really a shame that Violet should have two Terrans in his group. His PvT is undoubtedly his worst matchup, and sKyHigh has distinguished himself in the past in TvP (particularly against BeSt in GOM), though his statistics do not exactly bore out what we've seen from him in that matchup in the past. sKyHigh has the clear edge in this set, and as much as I pull for Violet, I just don't think he has it in him to get past sKyHigh, who's looking for some momentum after Iris took the #1 Terran spot back in the CJ house.
As for Light and Shine, Light has been a Zerg steamroller of late. He has wins against Jaedong, Luxury, hero, and ZerO among others in the last year, and indeed one against Shine himself. This will be a very tough game for Shine, as Light was MBC's rock during the last round of the Proleague, and MBC all around is looking back on track, and a rising tide lifts all ships. Light should take this set easily.
Those two are pretty easy to call, given that everything is in order in the heavens. So, with that gigantic assumption behind us, sKyHigh and Light should meet in this set. This is really bad news for Light. sKyHigh has damn near perfect TvT in clutch situations, and Light's TvT, while not bad, is no where near sKyHigh's. With that, I expect actually a very easy run for sKyHigh.
That sends Light to the fifth game, waiting for the victor of Violet and Shine. And, sad as I am to say it, Shine should take this one convincingly. My reasoning? Shine beat Bisu, and Violet's PvZ resembles Nbs' way more that it resembles Bisu's. Some creative cheese might bring him to the fifth game, but it really doesn't matter, because Light will be ready for either Violet or Shine, and manhandle either of them.
Predictions:
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So sit back and refresh the VOD page until your fingers are numb, as MST comes back for some more entertaining games.