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I as well am just waking up, and i was very pleased with the activity. We have learned:
Rise of Fenix is playing in a scummy manner
Sc2system and Ninja4ever. are not posting much aside from introductions and explaining why they werent there, etc.
Gossemerr, Mementoss, and Michaelthe are playing aggressively, which i like, as even if they are scum they are driving discussion and with their current level of activity would probably make a noticable mistake soon.
I would like a lynch on Rise of Fenix more than i would sc2 or ninja, as 1. I find his posts to be relatively wishy washy and scummy and 2. he is either bad scum or bad town(not trying to be offensive, but your play seems very inexperienced, even if this is a newbie game) in either case, it hurts us more than it helps us. When compared with the lurkers (sc2 and ninja) the lurkers behavior, or lack of one, isnt really hurting the town as much as confusing us is.
However, there is still plenty of time for rise and the lurkers to post more content that should be useful. I cant wait to hear Sc2System's 'stronger opinion'.
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Wheres that 9:00 post sc2system xD
im waiiiting....
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Sorry post delayed for luch, becuase I have exams on 5 different subjects. =S last second revision.
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France231 Posts
Some thoughts before going to school :
About the kill lurker strategy : it can make sense, mafia are often lurking as it gives them a way to not be judged and therefore not make mistake. At worst a not so useful townie is killed. Seem like the best thing we can come up with with the lack of information we have on day one.
Although, I'd like to say that, since from the very first posts, we said our strategy would very like be to hit on the lurker list. the probabilities of a mafia lurking aren't that great.
It's also interesting to think about HOW a lurking mafia, if there is one, would react to such a strategy ? Two things come to my mind : an inexperienced mafia would all of a sudden start posting a lot more than he previously was, and a more experienced one would probably stop lurking just enough not to be considered a lurker anymore. Townies wouldn't change their behavior.
I'll analyse more on the lurker list and on the rise of fenix case when I'm back from school, gotta go for now.
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On March 23 2012 14:21 Rise Of Fenix wrote:
My points:
I dont think I was thinking straight, and reading over my posts I have really been really playing terribly. Im sorry.
However, I think it is time for a little bit of analysis.
As I was suspicious of Michaelthe earlier, and then was backed up by froggy. Michael the never defended himself. I think that this is reason enough to lynch him, but until he defends himself I wont.
Just because Michaelthe hasn't defended himself doesn't excuse you from not defending yourself.
You came out VERY defensive. I called for lurkers to post, and they did... But hey, that's not my strategy!: Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 04:54 froggynoddy wrote:
The decision to lynch should therefore be based on 1. information (gathered by pressuring, amongst other ways) 2. Correct analysis. But without 1. we shall never be able to do 2. And therefore any decisions to lynch will be less strong.
Fair enough, I'd rather you post people's posts and explain why they are lacking in content rather than say 'I have a file that says you are posting no content'. Show your evidence and then explain your analysis. You seem to be playing aggressively, which is prob good town play at this stage of the game, but playing aggressively with unclear reasoning/basis is anti-town as it confuses and disorganises a concerted town effort to scumhunt.
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Oh and I was defensive cuz I'd just got home from a uni event (and was somewhat the worse for wear). That being said I stand by the content of what I posted, though perhaps not the tone.
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Haiiii,
Here is my aweosme post:
Even though there are other people that don’t contribute or contribute as much as Rise of Fenix I feel that he should be lynched the first day. He does try to “contribute” but the problem is he seemingly tries to help but ends up confusing the town. I would redraw my vote if he can come up with something that puts town in the right direction instead of confusing us more. I am not contributing a lot because most of the things I want to say are already said and I don’t want to be accusing people on bad arguments because that just ruins the game and complicates it.
##Vote: Rise of Fenix
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Day 1 Vote Count.
Remember, everyone must vote, and you need a majority to lynch (7 people in this case)
Current votes:
Rise Of Fenix (3): Gossemerr, Mementoss, sc2system
Mementoss (0): Gossemerr, -Gossemerr
Not voting: Artanis[Xp], Nova_Terra, michaelthe, froggynoddy, Ninja4ever., Rise Of Fenix, Seviro, virtu, BlueyD
The Day deadline is at 2012-03-24 12:00:00. (That's approximately 12:28:38 from now.)
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Time to bring another suspect to the table.
On March 22 2012 14:55 Seviro wrote:
I just noticed it had started and now I'm going to bed so I can't speak much now. I'll come back tomorrow to participate more.
It's my second game myself (SNMMVIII, perfect win for mafia and I was among the last survivor, yay!)
Introductory post. Pretty much no content other than saying he'll post again later.
On March 23 2012 03:50 Seviro wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On March 22 2012 23:42 BlueyD wrote:
People I consider to be lurkers right now, until further notice:
Seviro (one useless post, but he's there)
Rise of Fenix (one useless post calling me a townie for posting first, I want his opinion on day 1 lynching)
Ninja4Ever (he did say he would post later)
No one is entirely inactive, but most people seem to agree to lynch a lurker day 1. This means we have to start thinking about who to lynch if there's no convenient lurker.
On Gossemer's early vote for Mementoss: He was q My post wasn't useless, I had to post something before going to bed and I can't post while i'm asleep sorry  . As for the lurker lynch we should really put pressure on this, as Mementoss and Nova said, last game all three scums were very active and it was easy for them to control the flow of the game. It is useless to have the number advantage if half of the town only post once in a while just to make sure they are not modkilled. If you look at last day of last game (SNMMVIII) we were 5 town/3 scums and in one day we lynched a townie and 2 others got modkilled, and one of the lurkers was a Blue. This overall inactivity was a good part of why we lose the game since every lurker that we targetted flipped town. That said we should put pressure on lurker but not lynch them to fast because last game's situation will happen again and we will die horribly.
Wants to pressure for lurker lynch when this is pretty much established in town, the whole paragraph goes on about how lurking is bad which has pretty much been established already. Somewhat defends lurkers in the same post which is odd.
On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote:
Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen. And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be.
Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
On March 23 2012 06:31 Seviro wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 06:22 Nova_Terra wrote:
michaelthe could you make that 12 hours for them? some of them might live in europe and they have my sympathy.
Also would everyone be okay with a 6 hour soft deadline? I'm okay with 6 but I'd like 8 more. 6 feel kind of short.
Nothing of real worth here.
On March 23 2012 07:58 Seviro wrote:
there's no haste to vote yet, it's just that you said you would wait about and hour before the deadline before your vote, which is really late.
It will be best for everyone if we say something like 8 to 6 hour before the deadline we should post what is our vote at that moment. At this point we can discuss and see what would be the best for the town. If at the time of the "soft" deadline you have no one that you think is more suspicious than the other you can always vote for no-lynch and change your vote later.
These are exactly the type of contributions that scum is fine with doing, as they don't really 'help' the town in any way. The Rise of Fenix train is going nicely, which if he's just a bad townie is fine for mafia.
On March 23 2012 08:05 Seviro wrote:
It depends, on day 1 it is bad since we have no informations whatsoever if we don'T lynch someone, but later in the game a no lynch can be better than a mislynch. It does seems scummy but at time it can be good (rarely tho).
But my point was not to no lynch, it was that you can vote no-lynch like 6-8 hour before the deadline if you don't know who to vote for and then with the discussion that follow you can make up your mind.
Are you suddenly suggesting to no lynch? We've pretty much all agreed that not lynching day 1 is bad because of lack of information. People should vote on suspicion regardless.
On March 23 2012 08:10 Seviro wrote:
EBWOP, If we agree that everyone should have a vote posted at a set time before the deadline (since no one disagreed right now let's say 8 to 6 hour) we can then make a better choice for the lynch of this day and if someone fail to do so then he is most likely to be proposed as a lunch candidate.
But now I think everyone should post what are their thought about that, if they agree etc. If we want to be able to win this, we need to work together and to not let 1 or 2 people take the control of the town.
Continuing on with something that really isn't that crucial and if people agree to 8 hours instead of 6 there's nothing groundbreaking that will be decided.
Based on all these posts that pretty much say nothing at all and seem to want to blend in most of all which seems like scum behaviour to me, though it's just a suspicion, I'm voting for Seviro for now. At worst it'll spark some more discussion.
##Vote Seviro
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Ah, forgot the : 
##Vote: Seviro
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@Artanis, although i like the fact that you are bringing up another case, the thing is that there were multiple people, including myself, who were doing relatively the same thing. Thats because at such an early point in the game, there isnt much to go by, not having had many posts and no kills as of yet. I dont find much of his posting to be inherently scummy. That being said, I would like if possible for him to post more of his own analysis without using other peoples arguments.
TL;DR: i dont really think there is evidence enough to warrant lynching him as he is an active player whose posts dont seem inherently scummy.
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@Nova_Terra however bandwagoning on everything and making large posts that basically say "I agree" IS scummy, because the length of the post can make it seem like you're contributing when in fact you're not saying anything new. Sure, others have done this as well, but I haven't seen anyone else make such long posts without any real 'content'.
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@Nova_Terra,
I know you were just stating your opinion on the case, but I don't necessarily think that is a good thing to do right away. It allows the accused to just slide by without defending their own asses, if a couple people just stick up for them. It's more interesting/can give a lot of information to see the player defend themselves/how they do it. If you come in first they can just re-write what you said in a different way.
Even if the case doesn't seem the strongest in your thoughts, if it gets discredited by people other than the accused, the accused loses all pressure, and pressure = information/scum slips.
Here is the most interesting part of the case in my opinion:
On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote:On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote:
Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen. And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be. Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people.
Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities:
1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake.
2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active.
3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII)
Dat scum slip
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EBWOP: Only the first two paragraphs were @NovaTerra, rest was just to everyone
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On March 24 2012 01:43 Mementoss wrote:@Nova_Terra, I know you were just stating your opinion on the case, but I don't necessarily think that is a good thing to do right away. It allows the accused to just slide by without defending their own asses, if a couple people just stick up for them. It's more interesting/can give a lot of information to see the player defend themselves/how they do it. If you come in first they can just re-write what you said in a different way. Even if the case doesn't seem the strongest in your thoughts, if it gets discredited by people other than the accused, the accused loses all pressure, and pressure = information/scum slips. Here is the most interesting part of the case in my opinion: Show nested quote +On March 23 2012 23:55 Artanis[Xp] wrote:On March 23 2012 06:07 Seviro wrote:On March 23 2012 04:37 Nova_Terra wrote:
Seviro, while i agree with your post, i dont get how we can put pressure on lurkers but not lynch them fast, as thats really the only way to pressure them.
Pretty much what froggy said, last game we didn't really pressure them as much, yes we were talking a lot about lynching them but as soon as they posted like 1 or 2 post we were ok and were going on another subject. If we are talking about something, we need to have the opinion of everyone. I'll take Eleanthas of last game as an example, everytime he posted something he was completely ignoring the discussion that was going on, that should not happen. And about Rise, posting your thought about 1 hour before the deadline is possibly the more scummy thing you could do as the deadline is relatively late and a lot of people are not around at the time. Voting at this time is basically a ninja vote and it is not right to do so since, as Nova said we wouldn't have enough time to discuss about it and change our vote if need be. Agrees with another townie to gain cred, this is a trend in Seviro's posts; rarely comes up with any own ideas and mostly agrees with other townies to 'blend in'. Also jumps on the against the 1 hour bandwagon which is fairly obvious. Long post basically stating the obvious and agreeing with other people. Note the bolded/underlined, its both because its a very big mistake. A very big scum slip. Why is it such a huge deal? Because we have no clue if Nova_Terra is town. AT ALL. Here are the possibilities: 1) He is scum, he knows peoples roles, therefore he knows Nova_Terra is town. Slipped it by mistake. 2) He is scum, Nova_Terra is scum, he is quick to give the idea to the rest that Nova is confirmed town, when there is no proof behind it. Just saying it because Nova is active. 3) He is town, bad town play, making assumptions that lead to town not exploring all the possibilities, getting tunnelled away from someone (See me as mafia SNMM VIII) Dat scum slip
Oops, yeah that looks bad. That was a bad town play. What I meant was someone making a play that is obviously town favored. I worded it poorly. I believe it's a slip that both townies and scum can make with little effort though.
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UGH rage accidentally hit the wrong button and deleted the post i was about to make >.>
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Also, to my defense, if I was mafia I'd probably have a large accusatory post proofread by the other mafia. The chance of a slip like that happening in that case are much smaller. And to correct myself, when I said town I simply meant all players, not specifically town aligned.
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The gist of it: Ok, fair enough. I just feel that Seviro is in a position where myself or a few other posters here could be in. I feel a bit weird about that o.o
nice catch on that slip, but seeing as this IS a newbie game, it isnt very telling. at all. I hate that it works that way, but yeah, i should think that scum slips (even if they are from townies) will happen relatively often. Anyways, as a general note to everybody, please dont make assumptions like this (even if they are about me.) i would prefer us to be looking at all the options than i would have us assuming peoples roles, at least in our minds.
Artanis, can you tell me your thoughts on Rise of Fenix? if it came down between him and a lurker, who would you rather lynch and why?
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EBWOP: I was actually about to say the same thing artanis just did. but, i then realized its just based on WIFOM, really.
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France231 Posts
Ok I FINALLY have time to write everything I've been thinking.
Rise Of Fenix case :
Kinda hard to speak on it as most of the things have already been said. All his posts are either contradicting each other or not adding real content. The question is, is it just bad play or mafia play ? After going through all of his post, I didn't find a lot that could help mafia, only these two little things :
Rise Of Fenix Argentina. March 23 2012 07:58.
No lynch is LITERALLY the scummiest thing to do. No lynch only helps scum.
Rise Of Fenix Argentina. March 23 2012 05:24. Posts 16PM
Day one lynching is always a solid plan to move foreward, but no real tells are showing thus far. I will likely post my thoughts about 1 hour before the deadline. But not lynching anyone only benefits the scum.
Posts basically saying we HAVE to lynch, what ever happens.
No lynch on day one when we have so few information might be the best find to do. A lynch on day one is, especially in a newbie game, a good way for mafia to start, as we have too little information and too little experience to get a mafia.
Now, I know in the previous game town tried the no lynch on day one strategy and it failed, but the database if just too small to make any deduction from it.
All in all, I still prefere our alternative to pressure lurkers (It is really important that we don’t end up like last game where all the mafia was active against a few remaining townies + lurkers), what I wanted to say is that trying to enforce a lynch strategy is something a mafia would totally do.
I’d say it’s 60-40 beteween mafia and townie bad play. Still not enough for me to jump on the lynch band wagon. I still prefer to pressure lurkers, and switch my vote to Rise of Fenix if everyone is active enough. Therefore :
##Vote: sc2system (sorry bro, we're the 2 kind of lurkers left, can't vote for myself)
The analysts case :
People that actually seem tu put a lot of thinking into their analys are probably as important as blues. The thing is, if one of them is mafia he can screw the town pretty hard, making it really important to know wether or not they're townies. For exemple, two analyses in particular come to my mind :
1°) Mementoss on Rise of Fenix
It made perfect sense and I agreed with mostly every thing. Really nothing suspicious there.
2°) Artosis on Seviro
I don’t find your analysis based on strong enough evidences to warrant a lynch, your main argument being he posted too much redondancy and too little content, am I right ? Too me this is kinda natural when you have so few information, and it looks like every thing has been pretty much said. You could be trying to gain credit as a mafia and could also be a mafia that doesn’t want to look like he’s jumping on the Fenix wagon. By posting this analys you’d be killing two birds with one stone. As I said though, this is only really slight suspicion (around 55-45 mafia-townie, in my eyes) and even I is more suspicous at the moment, given my inactivity on the past couple days.
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EPT
