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On October 14 2011 04:21 Shiladie wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2011 04:16 ectonym wrote:
Between, say May and Jul, what does SUPER mean? Is June really that awesome? but srsly folks, what's SUPER mean in OP's charts the super tourny These graphs will now be mis-represented all over because people never know how to interpret stats... Yes terran is winning more, and protoss is winning less, this has been known, these stats also support that, but to make more inferences past that is a fallacy. The interesting things to note are the months MC MVP or Nestea won and the respective race win-rates in those months.
Yeah that's the thing that bugs me most about things like this - where the winner of the tournament racks up a huge amount of wins that can nullify the quick losses of at least several other players of his race in earlier rounds.
Example - Assume Terran is the weakest race by far. MKP, Ryung, Keen, NaDa, Virus, Supernova, and MMA all go 0-2 in their Groups. They just can't win a game because terran is so bad. However, MVP, being a complete boss goes undefeated through the entire bracket 14-0 + Show Spoiler +Ro32 2-0, Ro16 2-0, Ro8 3-0, Ro4 3-0, Finals 4-0
So that's a complicated way to explain why we see zerg / protoss / terran peak a little when Nestea / MC / MVP won, respectively. I would love to see the data normalized to each player. In theory it should be a bit more representative on balance. + Show Spoiler +Normalized Terran Winrate for the above example = 100% * 1/8 + 0% * 7/8 = 12.5% which seems to illustrate how terran in general performed that season much better than taking raw wins and losses.
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On October 14 2011 06:19 Krallman wrote:
I want to see an only code-s graph
That would look even more ridiculous. A lot of the P and Z data in the past few months has been from Code A and Up/Down.
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On October 14 2011 01:22 Fleebu wrote:
Maybe you should also look at the percentage of people in Korea who actually play Protoss...
Maybe you should look at the amount of people who play SC2 in America rather than South Korea. Obviously Americans are going to have many more better players because so many more of us play.
See what I did there?
When will people stop this ;..;
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ehh I've decided that creatorprime will just go win the gsl
so all will be saved
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Please remove warpgates and larva inject so you can make individual units stronger. It just feels bad to have to have shitty units at certain points in the game because of those mechanics. I understand the swarm thing is a theme for zerg....but just make it fun to play rather than trying too hard to match that theme. Warpgates just suck because of how much the turn the defender's advantage on its head and force gateway units to be subpar.
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On October 14 2011 06:30 Silidons wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2011 01:22 Fleebu wrote:
Maybe you should also look at the percentage of people in Korea who actually play Protoss... Maybe you should look at the amount of people who play SC2 in America rather than South Korea. Obviously Americans are going to have many more better players because so many more of us play. See what I did there? When will people stop this ;..;
You made no sense, while his does.
If there is 1 Protoss player for every 1,000 Terran players you should expect too see a higher Terran win %. There are more Terrans innovating and finding solutions to problems, a better chance to find a Flash, etc. America might have more players, but they have less experience and less practice.
But in all honesty the difference is like 2-3%, so it shouldn't create that big of a disparity. Honestly, Terran's win-rate is fueled a lot by players like MVP that are just straight up better, and also the fact that a good deal of BW Toss/Zergs switched to Terran because of Terran dominance in BW and in the Beta days. Just looking at win-rates in the GSL would be a terrible way to balance the game.
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I wonder what would happen to the numbers/graph when winner games would not count. Cause you have dominant players like MVP/MC/Nestea owning their seasons and shifting numbers/graphs to theirs race advantage.
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On October 14 2011 01:24 Daralii wrote:![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/9rI09.png)
gogogo toss! i've nothing against these graphs but they seem to show the same thing generally toss is in a slump/sucks. Terrans owning it up and Zerg are somewhere in the middle with a few spikes
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On October 14 2011 08:10 yotis wrote:
I wonder what would happen to the numbers/graph when winner games would not count. Cause you have dominant players like MVP/MC/Nestea owning their seasons and shifting numbers/graphs to theirs race advantage.
This is totally true. Protoss did pretty bad in Open Season 3, but MC skews the Protoss win rates for that season.
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On October 14 2011 08:10 yotis wrote:
I wonder what would happen to the numbers/graph when winner games would not count. Cause you have dominant players like MVP/MC/Nestea owning their seasons and shifting numbers/graphs to theirs race advantage.
Well all the races would have <50% winrate then, since a large amout of wins would be missing :p
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i dont think this gives protoss players justice in saying protoss sucks. There simply isn't any really good protoss player around. Zerg has nestea and Terran have MVP
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On October 14 2011 08:10 yotis wrote:
I wonder what would happen to the numbers/graph when winner games would not count. Cause you have dominant players like MVP/MC/Nestea owning their seasons and shifting numbers/graphs to theirs race advantage.
If you remove winners from the statistics, all races have a 0% win rate 
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On October 14 2011 06:26 Clog wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2011 04:21 Shiladie wrote:On October 14 2011 04:16 ectonym wrote:
Between, say May and Jul, what does SUPER mean? Is June really that awesome? but srsly folks, what's SUPER mean in OP's charts the super tourny These graphs will now be mis-represented all over because people never know how to interpret stats... Yes terran is winning more, and protoss is winning less, this has been known, these stats also support that, but to make more inferences past that is a fallacy. The interesting things to note are the months MC MVP or Nestea won and the respective race win-rates in those months. Yeah that's the thing that bugs me most about things like this - where the winner of the tournament racks up a huge amount of wins that can nullify the quick losses of at least several other players of his race in earlier rounds. Example - Assume Terran is the weakest race by far. MKP, Ryung, Keen, NaDa, Virus, Supernova, and MMA all go 0-2 in their Groups. They just can't win a game because terran is so bad. However, MVP, being a complete boss goes undefeated through the entire bracket 14-0 + Show Spoiler +Ro32 2-0, Ro16 2-0, Ro8 3-0, Ro4 3-0, Finals 4-0 by being so much better than anyone else he plays. Total Terran W/L = 14/14, or 50%. I think the statistical term for something like this is Selection Bias (players losing provide fewer data points), but I'm not totally sure if that's completely right. And of course the example is exaggerated as well. So that's a complicated way to explain why we see zerg / protoss / terran peak a little when Nestea / MC / MVP won, respectively. I would love to see the data normalized to each player. In theory it should be a bit more representative on balance. + Show Spoiler +Normalized Terran Winrate for the above example = 100% * 1/8 + 0% * 7/8 = 12.5% which seems to illustrate how terran in general performed that season much better than taking raw wins and losses.
Uh with that example, isn't that because most of those are TvT's?
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On October 14 2011 08:15 Expurgate wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2011 08:10 yotis wrote:
I wonder what would happen to the numbers/graph when winner games would not count. Cause you have dominant players like MVP/MC/Nestea owning their seasons and shifting numbers/graphs to theirs race advantage. If you remove winners from the statistics, all races have a 0% win rate
just winners of the finals of course
edit: maybe even top 2 players and work statistics without them completely
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On October 14 2011 03:37 K3Nyy wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2011 02:57 Wuster wrote:On October 14 2011 01:27 Carras wrote:lol you can actually see mc´s championships there  Controversially, you could say that MC has dragged Protoss as a whole down. Reason being, Korea is a very copy-cat scene (the only real exception is the tank/marine vs mech split for TvT). And MC always had a really timing/micro heavy style, so people who weren't as sharp as him couldn't pull it off and eventually when people learned timing defenses, then those other Protoss' disappeared too (Alicia comes to mind - I still best remember him for straight up killing MVP when poking with a 3-gate expo). Maybe this is reading too much into MC's fall from grace and yes I'm kind of ripping off what Wolf said, but players sure like to follow the example of their best players (how many NA zergs only respect macro ala Idra?). And Genius/Hongun, who never played like MC, are the two most consistent Protoss players (as in Code S every season knock on wood). I think the huge swings in PvX are weird; how the hell do you balance a race that goes to 60% win rates then down to 30% winrates month to month? Some of it though is caused by patch changes, like the Roach range buff in Open 2, Fungal buff in May all caused PvZ to tank immediately, but they more or less bounced back the season after. Obviously, PvT hasn't bounced back from August yet; but 1-1-1 isn't a patch change so that's not too surprising. PvZ is starting to come back though, so that's a good sign. I'm curious what meta/patch changes happened in PvT between January and December to cause Protoss to go from 2 in the final 4! MC FF's imba! Hongun's all-ins too good! to Protoss barely winning. On October 14 2011 02:42 ilikeLIONZ wrote:
MC owning the graphs, other than him not a single toss did very well in the GSL. i'm really tired of that. Inca, Genius, Hongun and Anypro have all made deep GSL runs (only Genius has missed on a Ro4 on that list). It's not like there are a lot of non-Nestea zergs that make GSL finals either (just Fruitdealer and Losira). I dunno if you realize it but timing attacks happen in a lot of games, not just MC's game. TvZ, the 3 tank timing attack happens in a lot of the games. TvP, Stim/Ghost/2 medivac timings happen all the timing. ZvP, roach ling, etc. The point is nobody maxes to 200/200 and then goes attack, that's not a macro game. Timing attacks always happens, not just in the Protoss race. The difference is that pretty much all the Protoss timings have been figured out.
And by "figured out timings," you mean nerfed them heavily. Warpgate nerf. Void Ray nerf. 2 gate nerf. Forge nerf. Complete obliteration of Khaydarin Amulet. Zergs and Terrans didn't figure out shit. They cried and cried until daddy Blizzard overcompensated. Every time Protoss tried some new aggressive tactic, Blizzard was ready to massively nerf it. Guess what happens now that there exists no earlygame aggression options? Zerg and Terran are free to dictate the first 10-15 minutes of the game. Protoss players only do what they can do, and now the new meta is be aggressive as early as possible, which is the 2 base all-in. That's kind of sad that the only reliable aggressive option for Protoss isn't until late midgame.
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On October 14 2011 04:59 Reborn8u wrote:More like ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/C4weR.png)
BWAHAHHAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHJAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAH.
on topic i will wait to see in what manner HotS breaks the game
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On October 14 2011 08:08 Skwid1g wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2011 06:30 Silidons wrote:On October 14 2011 01:22 Fleebu wrote:
Maybe you should also look at the percentage of people in Korea who actually play Protoss... Maybe you should look at the amount of people who play SC2 in America rather than South Korea. Obviously Americans are going to have many more better players because so many more of us play. See what I did there? When will people stop this ;..; You made no sense, while his does. If there is 1 Protoss player for every 1,000 Terran players you should expect too see a higher Terran win %. There are more Terrans innovating and finding solutions to problems, a better chance to find a Flash, etc. America might have more players, but they have less experience and less practice. But in all honesty the difference is like 2-3%, so it shouldn't create that big of a disparity. Honestly, Terran's win-rate is fueled a lot by players like MVP that are just straight up better, and also the fact that a good deal of BW Toss/Zergs switched to Terran because of Terran dominance in BW and in the Beta days. Just looking at win-rates in the GSL would be a terrible way to balance the game.
I make perfect sense. If more people are playing this leads to more people trying different and new strategies which in turn helps everyone because one person has already tested one build and can see if it is good or not. Please tell me how more people testing out something doesn't lead to more strategies? There are almost twice as many people on the American ladder than the Korean ladder, and yet the Koreans are much much better than the Americans. My logic had nothing to do with races but shows that even though there are more American players than Korean players that doesn't mean that the Americans are just better since they have a larger player pool to get better players from. It's like saying there are more Korean Terrans so then the Terrans must be better. It's not true.
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Should add team league...a few protoss's kicked some serious ass there.
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On October 14 2011 01:22 Alejandrisha wrote:Show nested quote +On October 14 2011 01:21 Deekin[ wrote:
Seems David Kim needs to take a look at this, and Im not even a protoss player. He doesn't really watch the GSL I've talked to him about it haha
I am always shocked when I read this. Not watching the GSL means you aren't watching SC2 at the highest level, and if you are involved with balancing SC2, it is a travesty that you do so without watching the GSL. It would be the same thing as if the people who decided on what the rule changes should happen next season in the NFL didn't actually watch the NFL last season, and only watched High School and College Games (provided all three had the same set of rules).
I wonder if he wonders why all these Koreans come over to MLG and win everything... or why a Korean from the Open Bracket took on a Korean in the NASL Finals... yet he isn't balancing the game based on their play...
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On October 14 2011 08:22 Corrupted wrote:
Should add team league...a few protoss's kicked some serious ass there.
Yes, kind of sad that they didn't carry that success in individual leagues.
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EPT
