EPTIt's like he didn't even know he existed.
TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 74
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DropBear
Australia4262 Posts
It's like he didn't even know he existed. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4262 Posts
First EM's voting pattern: Day 1 he voted Kurumi Day 2 he originally voted for sandroba, then switched to Amber[Light] after chaoser's claim. Analysis of EM has already been provided by ilovejonn. Note that ilovejonn is also on the table today. This makes me feel that they can't both be mafia. Analysis of ilovejonn on Night 1 by me is here. Please note the contradictions between his accusation of EternalMisfit and his own behaviour. He accuses EM of being scummy for FoSing Airblade yet he does it himself (see my analysis). Most of these accusations of EM are rubbish if you go over them again. CONCLUSION I think EM is town. I think ilovejonn is scum, as is elmizzt. | ||
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DropBear
Australia4262 Posts
I'm voting ilovejonn. Happy to vote sinani206 as well, then elmizzt. I'm not voting for EM unless something like a DT check comes up. | ||
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rredtooth
5458 Posts
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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Forumite
Sweden3280 Posts
On May 10 2011 11:47 orgolove wrote: This is in progress - I'm posting this just in case I'm killed in the night (though not likely) [url blocked] The excel file contains the vote time and target for the past 2 days. It's quite interesting. I'll post a full analysis after day breaks and I have a few more identifiers. Waiting for your analysis. | ||
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elmizzt
United States3309 Posts
On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote: On elmizzt I know we are focusing on the three others, but I'd like to bring an extra one to the table. There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit. Can you explain the interaction between myself and EM? I think you either forgot to add that part, or you mistyped. On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote: Voting pattern: Day 1 votes redtooth Day 2 votes Beneather, then the last person to switch to Amber[Light]. He has played one previous mafia game in which he was a mafia goon, Surprisingly normal mini-mafia 1. First up, an early defence of Irish_Punk13. Note that it is a subtle defence, not an outright one. I'm not sure how you interpreted my post as a defence of Irish. Orgolove posited that irish might be a new player, hence his overreaction to chaoser's early poke, which I responded to by mentioning his previous experience playing forum mafia. Seems to me that would make the evidence against Irish more incriminating, not less. On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:Attack on Kurumi and FoS on redtooth Next are three pushes on Cthasza. At this point lots of people, including Chaoser, were ignoring the Jackal/Cthazsa exchange. Well, to be fair, Csthazsa was being quite belligerent. If you read those posts in their context, it's easy to see where they came from. I mean, come on..."lurking scum isn't a threat". lol On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:Here is the explanation for his vote on redtooth. It comes with an interesting exchange with kitaman27. More on redtooth Ok...you keep linking posts of mine, but you don't say anything about them. What exactly is interesting, or sticks out? Are they suspicious to you or what? and why? On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:Here are some of his explanation for voting for Beneather: This exchange is very odd. I'd like the opinions of others on it. How could he think that posting less is sticking out, yet he is pushing Beneather for not posting much? No opinion of the lurking of Amber is given. If you read the context of the posts, you can see that kitaman was making empty posts, and I was trying to focus his posting. He insinuates that he is concerned at my low post count, while at the same time claiming I am blending in too well. Obviously, if I stuck out to him due to my post count, I couldn't be blending in well... perhaps this needs further clarification, let me know if this doesn't make sense to anyone. On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:In surprisingly normal mini, he pushed another inactive player as a lynch target. Also note that many of his posts are one-liners, another trait he displayed in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia. Sure, my posting style is similar to my posting style in mini mafia, but your conclusion is missing the data point of my posting style in the case that I am confirmed town. On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:CONCLUSION elmizzt defended Irish_Punk13 covertly at the beginning of the game. elmizzt has directly attacked Kurumi and Beneather who have flipped town. He also heavily went after Cthsazsa who at this point is almost definitely town. He waited until the last possible moment to switch to Amber. His posting is very similar to how he was Mafia in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia 1. He is contributing very little, mostly one-liners. He has a very strange explanation for his lack of activity. I think he is worth looking at as well. EternalMisfit is next on my analysis list. So, in response to your conclusions: 1. misinterpretation 2. true, but at that point he wasn't "almost definitely town" 3. ok lol don't see how this is relevant at all. mafia and town would both react the same in that circumstance 4. bad conclusion 5. same as 4 6. ? I think you forgot to put this in, or i missed it? clarify plz  | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
I will ask you to respond this sincerely, because the only reason I assumed you are town is because of your "I pm'ed ver and blablabla" bulshit. This is quite a low blow if you are mafia DropBear. Would you be capable of pulling this off if you were mafia? | ||
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DropBear
Australia4262 Posts
"an interesting exchange with kitaman27" is supposed to be after "here is some explanation of voting for voting Beneather". "There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit" should have gone in the following post regarding ilovejonn. I was writing them up at the same time. Ok I went over it again. I did misinterpret the first line. The posting of the Ver bit was a mistake. I'm not mafia sandroba. I'm a vanilla townie. | ||
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Node
United States2159 Posts
On May 10 2011 15:20 redtooth wrote: i can honestly say that i now legitimately have no clue what is going on with this game. node is trolling imo. ![[image loading]](http://www.freshedgemedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/shifty-eyed-dog.gif) | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
So, when are we telling them about the death millers and the mafia kill framer? | ||
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DropBear
Australia4262 Posts
PEOPLE I'VE ACCUSED redtooth sinani206 Irish_Punk13 varpulis ilovejonn cthazsa beneather lyter jaminz orgolove chaoser sandroba GGQ elmizzt DEFENDED AirbladeOrange sandroba KillerSOS Irish_Punk13 Amber[Light] GGQ EternalMisfit Oh dear lol. That's a lot of people. Alright I'm going to shut up now. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
[url blocked] So, lets begin. The Theory of Redness Factor and its Applications Introduction I am in firm belief that patterns can be derived from TL mafia (or most any forum mafia, for that matter) by looking at the voting patterns smartly and objectively. If one carefully deduces the characteristic voting patterns of mafia members, one can numerically convert such patterns into the "redness" of each particular voting behavior. If one can correctly identify the factors and calibrate the correct conversions, one can find who the reds are just from the voting data. From this premise, I first went through the votes of each player, and listed them in the order they appeared in the public voting thread. Day 1: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/vbTlk.png) Day 2: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ImKJ7.png) Proposed Protocol of Data Analysis Now that we had the voting patterns for both days, and especially the second day during which there was a closely fought red lynch, I decided to consider typical red voting patterns and its numerical weight in my scale. The below was what I came to, after careful deliberation: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/of1eg.png) Some justifications: general point values of each redness factor category a: simple. Since reds have full information, they are more likely to vote for townies than one of their own. b: reds have a greater motivation to change their votes according to the game situation at the time, since again, they have more information than the town. c. since reds can PM each other in this particular game, they are more likely to agree on a vote when they PM each other and post it in close time periods. d. reds have a greater motivation to lurk than townies. e. same reason as a - reds have less chance to vote for their own than townies. Even simple probability shows it. crunch time - when there's a closely fought red lynch near end of the day f. when there's a tie or a red is leading the lynch vote total, reds have a much, much greater chance to vote away from the lead, even if they initially voted for each other to hide their identities. g. again, red have a much greater chance to vote for the next closest target in effort to save their own. h. reds have zero motivation to vote for their member that's closest to being lynched, so anyone who does so is most likely not a red. i. again, reds have no motivation to lower the vote total of a townie that's the vote leader, and put their member that much closer to danger. j. once the red lynch is inevitable, the reds will try to blend in the bandwagon by mass voting for the red vote leader. This is almost a guarantee, and thus is included in the consideration. Further, as the reds would not fight so hard over the lynch if #2 is a red, any such hard fought lynch almost 100% guarantees the identity of the second most vote getter. Driving from this revelation, we can then consider that anyone who stayed their votes on #2 despite the red lynch also has a higher chance of being a red than other voters. Results After setting up the parameters, I manually went through each vote and applied the point totals. Day 1: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/eBtqR.png) Day 2: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/OKadP.png) As we can see, in day 2, when there were a lot of lead switches back and forth as time went on, which gave us quite a lot of data to work with. To give you a perspective, below is a graphical representation of how the vote totals changed as each vote was cast. ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/ixeza.png) Conclusion and discussion Analysis of above patterns let us assign a "red factor" value to each player. A ranking of these players by the red factor gives us four principal suspects: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/xUx3K.png) Of course, this process isn't completely infallible. For instance, I probably would not have caught GGQ with this method, as he voted for cthsazsa just once during the second day. This also shows the most important flaw of this method - lack of data. The more data I have, the more accurate I can get. At this point, given all available data, I believe that the last 4 remaining reds are:
... Next time I'm going to write a program instead of doing all this by hand. | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
ok then 3 of the 4. Probably the first 3. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
1. randomness. If you only have 2 days to use as data, one day can be an anomaly and you wouldn't know. But if you have 10 days worth of data, patterns can be much more pronounced than temporary anomalies. 2. calibration. The numerical values I assigned to each behavioral patterns are not final. With more data, I can tweak those values and introduce new parameters to better predict the reds. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
So basically I would like to know what the numbers would look like if voting had stopped at 11:15 with dropbears vote. | ||
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sandroba
Canada4998 Posts
I'm saying this right now EM is mafia and so is DropBear. I'm also willing to bet that EM is Mafia goon and asked for a vig shot so we would not kill GGQ, the mafia RoleBlocker. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On May 10 2011 17:16 Mig wrote: orglove could you show how the numbers would look not taking into account the last minute jump onto amber. After chaoser claimed dt I feel like everyone was pretty much forced to vote amber regardless of being town/mafia and the only people who didn't were probably the ones who weren't online in time. So basically I would like to know what the numbers would look like if voting had stopped at 11:15 with dropbears vote. The numbers come out like this when I take away all the points from votes after 11:15: ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/b3d2B.png) | ||
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