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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 74

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DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4353 Posts
May 10 2011 05:27 GMT
#1461
I forgot to say that elmizzt refers to Amber at absolutely no time until the last second vote switch.
It's like he didn't even know he existed.
Sucker for nostalgia
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4353 Posts
May 10 2011 05:48 GMT
#1462
On EternalMisfit and ilovejonn's accusation of him

First EM's voting pattern:

Day 1 he voted Kurumi
Day 2 he originally voted for sandroba, then switched to Amber[Light] after chaoser's claim.

Analysis of EM has already been provided by ilovejonn. Note that ilovejonn is also on the table today. This makes me feel that they can't both be mafia.

Analysis of ilovejonn on Night 1 by me is here.

Please note the contradictions between his accusation of EternalMisfit and his own behaviour. He accuses EM of being scummy for FoSing Airblade yet he does it himself (see my analysis). Most of these accusations of EM are rubbish if you go over them again.

CONCLUSION

I think EM is town.
I think ilovejonn is scum, as is elmizzt.
Sucker for nostalgia
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4353 Posts
May 10 2011 05:51 GMT
#1463
I have more on EM, will do it when I get time.

I'm voting ilovejonn. Happy to vote sinani206 as well, then elmizzt.

I'm not voting for EM unless something like a DT check comes up.
Sucker for nostalgia
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
May 10 2011 06:20 GMT
#1464
i can honestly say that i now legitimately have no clue what is going on with this game. node is trolling imo.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
May 10 2011 06:23 GMT
#1465
lol
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 06:33 GMT
#1466
Wow, chaoser is good. Kudos to him.

On May 10 2011 11:47 orgolove wrote:
This is in progress - I'm posting this just in case I'm killed in the night (though not likely)

[url blocked]

The excel file contains the vote time and target for the past 2 days. It's quite interesting. I'll post a full analysis after day breaks and I have a few more identifiers.

Waiting for your analysis.
:3
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 10 2011 07:04 GMT
#1467
about time someone paid attention to me! I was feeling unloved :o

On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:
On elmizzt

I know we are focusing on the three others, but I'd like to bring an extra one to the table. There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit.


Can you explain the interaction between myself and EM? I think you either forgot to add that part, or you mistyped.
On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:
Voting pattern:

Day 1 votes redtooth
Day 2 votes Beneather, then the last person to switch to Amber[Light].

He has played one previous mafia game in which he was a mafia goon, Surprisingly normal mini-mafia 1.

First up, an early defence of Irish_Punk13. Note that it is a subtle defence, not an outright one.

Show nested quote +
On May 04 2011 14:48 elmizzt wrote:
On May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote:
Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly.

Irish seems like he's claiming to be a pretty experienced player, what with him linking to a Mafia group outside TL that he is a member of.


I'm not sure how you interpreted my post as a defence of Irish. Orgolove posited that irish might be a new player, hence his overreaction to chaoser's early poke, which I responded to by mentioning his previous experience playing forum mafia. Seems to me that would make the evidence against Irish more incriminating, not less.

On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:Attack on Kurumi and FoS on redtooth

Next are three pushes on Cthasza. At this point lots of people, including Chaoser, were ignoring the Jackal/Cthazsa exchange.


Well, to be fair, Csthazsa was being quite belligerent. If you read those posts in their context, it's easy to see where they came from. I mean, come on..."lurking scum isn't a threat". lol

On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:Here is the explanation for his vote on redtooth. It comes with an interesting exchange with kitaman27.

Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 04:40 elmizzt wrote:
On May 06 2011 04:30 kitaman27 wrote:
Redtooth

He calls chaoser out for being too safe, yet rather than calling anyone out as scum, he posts a town list. It seems as if he doesn't want to upset anyone so early in the game.

On May 05 2011 02:20 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 04 2011 21:37 redtooth wrote:
@orgolove - The first vote was a joke between me and HeavonEarth (who I know very well from LoL days) where I wasn't in the game at all and just decided to poke at him anyways.


On October 24 2010 18:01 redtooth wrote:
##vote Kitaman27


I assure everyone, there was no inside joke taking place when this vote was cast. The fact that you were smurfing in a previous game doesn't bother me, but what interests me is why would you lie about it.


I called him out earlier on a lie, not because I care that he was smurfing, but to see how he responds and he completely ignores it. The way he disappears after stirring the pot makes him look shifty, but he claims to have real life obligations, which makes it tough to tell if he is lurking or not.

I haven't forgotten about redtooth's dodge of the proof that he was lying either. I'm putting in my vote for him unless he posts an explanation.
More on redtooth

Ok...you keep linking posts of mine, but you don't say anything about them. What exactly is interesting, or sticks out? Are they suspicious to you or what? and why?

On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:Here are some of his explanation for voting for Beneather:

Show nested quote +
On May 08 2011 11:54 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:53 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:52 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:47 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:38 GGQ wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:
I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum.

Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes.

On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (:


On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
[quote]

Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum.


The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away.

On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him?

##Vote: Beneather

This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind.


Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in...


And all you're doing is vaguely questioning people. Post something solid.


Heh looks who's talking? You've got one post yourself this cycle. You mentioned you would post your thoughts tomorrow evening. We're still waiting.

On May 08 2011 11:38 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:36 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 08 2011 11:31 elmizzt wrote:
On May 08 2011 03:15 ilovejonn wrote:
I think people need to think more about their votes. Sure you guys suspect redtooth, but like he said, is he really your BEST lynch for the day? Remember our most important KP comes from our votes. If you do not entirely or at least have a very high probability of thinking he is scum, I'd suggest reconsidering your vote to someone who you think has a higher chance than redtooth being scum.

Today however, my vote is going on Beneather based on 2 quotes.

On May 03 2011 06:44 Beneather wrote:
Really looking forward to playing this game :D lol. Going to be extremely active (:


On May 05 2011 08:19 Beneather wrote:
[quote]

Mafia slip :o Even if they do not participate in the discussion they still kill two of us. If they're inactive that means that they're lurking and don't want to get in to arguments to put suspicion on them so they do not get lynched. Pressuring inactives will make them active and find out if they're actually scum.


The dude was seriously pumped before the game and even said he'd be extremely active. Once he got his role he became a total lurker. As pointed out by someone else, most of his posts talks about lurkers and inactives yet he does not consider himself being one! Extremely suspicious to me. Seems to me he does not know what to do after getting the scum role and just pretends to be away.

On the second quote, notice how Cthsazsa raised a lot of suspicions as being scum. If we look at it this way, Beneather and Cthsazsa being on the same scum team, Beneather calling Cthsazsa on the mafia slip was like a little reminder from a person on your team. "Hey you slipped better watch what you say next time!" And then who does he decide to vote on at the end of the day? Kurumi! The easiest wagon to go on. If he thought Cthsazsa was scum, why didn't he decide to vote him?

##Vote: Beneather

This is the only hard evidence I've seen so far. I'm voting beneather for now unless he says something to change my mind.


Is this going to be your only post of the day cycle? You're doing to good job blending in...

Yea, I'm not a heavy poster in mafia, but I read everything.

And don't you think posting less would be sticking out, and posting more blending in?


No, posting less allows you to lurk with the 10 others that have only a handful of posts, including the guy you just voted against, Beneather. Posting more allows us to have a better idea of where you stand and will eventually result in scum slips if you are red.

Then why did I stick out to you?


Because I'm looking for scum. Are you concerned about sticking out?

Make up your mind. Am I doing a "to good job blending in" or sticking out?


This exchange is very odd. I'd like the opinions of others on it. How could he think that posting less is sticking out, yet he is pushing Beneather for not posting much? No opinion of the lurking of Amber is given.

If you read the context of the posts, you can see that kitaman was making empty posts, and I was trying to focus his posting. He insinuates that he is concerned at my low post count, while at the same time claiming I am blending in too well. Obviously, if I stuck out to him due to my post count, I couldn't be blending in well... perhaps this needs further clarification, let me know if this doesn't make sense to anyone.

On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:In surprisingly normal mini, he pushed another inactive player as a lynch target. Also note that many of his posts are one-liners, another trait he displayed in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia.

Sure, my posting style is similar to my posting style in mini mafia, but your conclusion is missing the data point of my posting style in the case that I am confirmed town.

On May 10 2011 14:25 DropBear wrote:CONCLUSION

elmizzt defended Irish_Punk13 covertly at the beginning of the game.
elmizzt has directly attacked Kurumi and Beneather who have flipped town. He also heavily went after Cthsazsa who at this point is almost definitely town.
He waited until the last possible moment to switch to Amber.
His posting is very similar to how he was Mafia in Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia 1.
He is contributing very little, mostly one-liners.
He has a very strange explanation for his lack of activity.

I think he is worth looking at as well.

EternalMisfit is next on my analysis list.

So, in response to your conclusions:
1. misinterpretation
2. true, but at that point he wasn't "almost definitely town"
3. ok lol don't see how this is relevant at all. mafia and town would both react the same in that circumstance
4. bad conclusion
5. same as 4
6. ? I think you forgot to put this in, or i missed it? clarify plz
d=(^_^)z
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 07:13 GMT
#1468
@DropBear What is up with this bullshit analysis? The first line you quoted elmizzt is CLEARLY NOT defending Irish. Saying that he seems like an experienced player in that situation is clearly making Irish seem MORE guilty.

I will ask you to respond this sincerely, because the only reason I assumed you are town is because of your "I pm'ed ver and blablabla" bulshit. This is quite a low blow if you are mafia DropBear.
Would you be capable of pulling this off if you were mafia?
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4353 Posts
May 10 2011 07:32 GMT
#1469
I seem to have misplaced some bits in my analysis.

"an interesting exchange with kitaman27" is supposed to be after "here is some explanation of voting for voting Beneather".

"There has been some interaction between him and EternalMisfit" should have gone in the following post regarding ilovejonn. I was writing them up at the same time.

Ok I went over it again. I did misinterpret the first line.

The posting of the Ver bit was a mistake. I'm not mafia sandroba. I'm a vanilla townie.
Sucker for nostalgia
Node
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States2159 Posts
May 10 2011 07:34 GMT
#1470
On May 10 2011 15:20 redtooth wrote:
i can honestly say that i now legitimately have no clue what is going on with this game. node is trolling imo.


[image loading]
whole lies with a half smile
GMarshal
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States22154 Posts
May 10 2011 07:36 GMT
#1471
On May 10 2011 16:34 Node wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2011 15:20 redtooth wrote:
i can honestly say that i now legitimately have no clue what is going on with this game. node is trolling imo.


+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]


So, when are we telling them about the death millers and the mafia kill framer?
Moderator
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4353 Posts
May 10 2011 07:53 GMT
#1472
K I just looked through my own posts in this game.

PEOPLE I'VE ACCUSED
redtooth
sinani206
Irish_Punk13
varpulis
ilovejonn
cthazsa
beneather
lyter
jaminz
orgolove
chaoser
sandroba
GGQ
elmizzt

DEFENDED
AirbladeOrange
sandroba
KillerSOS
Irish_Punk13
Amber[Light]
GGQ
EternalMisfit

Oh dear lol. That's a lot of people. Alright I'm going to shut up now.
Sucker for nostalgia
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-10 08:16:56
May 10 2011 07:54 GMT
#1473
Ok. I'm done. First, the DL link:
[url blocked]

So, lets begin.



The Theory of Redness Factor and its Applications




Introduction

I am in firm belief that patterns can be derived from TL mafia (or most any forum mafia, for that matter) by looking at the voting patterns smartly and objectively. If one carefully deduces the characteristic voting patterns of mafia members, one can numerically convert such patterns into the "redness" of each particular voting behavior. If one can correctly identify the factors and calibrate the correct conversions, one can find who the reds are just from the voting data.

From this premise, I first went through the votes of each player, and listed them in the order they appeared in the public voting thread.

Day 1:
[image loading]

Day 2:
[image loading]



Proposed Protocol of Data Analysis

Now that we had the voting patterns for both days, and especially the second day during which there was a closely fought red lynch, I decided to consider typical red voting patterns and its numerical weight in my scale. The below was what I came to, after careful deliberation:
[image loading]

Some justifications:

general point values of each redness factor category

a: simple. Since reds have full information, they are more likely to vote for townies than one of their own.
b: reds have a greater motivation to change their votes according to the game situation at the time, since again, they have more information than the town.
c. since reds can PM each other in this particular game, they are more likely to agree on a vote when they PM each other and post it in close time periods.
d. reds have a greater motivation to lurk than townies.

e. same reason as a - reds have less chance to vote for their own than townies. Even simple probability shows it.

crunch time - when there's a closely fought red lynch near end of the day
f. when there's a tie or a red is leading the lynch vote total, reds have a much, much greater chance to vote away from the lead, even if they initially voted for each other to hide their identities.
g. again, red have a much greater chance to vote for the next closest target in effort to save their own.

h. reds have zero motivation to vote for their member that's closest to being lynched, so anyone who does so is most likely not a red.
i. again, reds have no motivation to lower the vote total of a townie that's the vote leader, and put their member that much closer to danger.

j. once the red lynch is inevitable, the reds will try to blend in the bandwagon by mass voting for the red vote leader. This is almost a guarantee, and thus is included in the consideration.

Further, as the reds would not fight so hard over the lynch if #2 is a red, any such hard fought lynch almost 100% guarantees the identity of the second most vote getter.

Driving from this revelation, we can then consider that anyone who stayed their votes on #2 despite the red lynch also has a higher chance of being a red than other voters.




Results

After setting up the parameters, I manually went through each vote and applied the point totals.

Day 1:
[image loading]

Day 2:
[image loading]


As we can see, in day 2, when there were a lot of lead switches back and forth as time went on, which gave us quite a lot of data to work with. To give you a perspective, below is a graphical representation of how the vote totals changed as each vote was cast.

[image loading]




Conclusion and discussion
Analysis of above patterns let us assign a "red factor" value to each player. A ranking of these players by the red factor gives us four principal suspects:
[image loading]


Of course, this process isn't completely infallible. For instance, I probably would not have caught GGQ with this method, as he voted for cthsazsa just once during the second day. This also shows the most important flaw of this method - lack of data. The more data I have, the more accurate I can get.


At this point, given all available data, I believe that the last 4 remaining reds are:

  • DropBear
  • ilovejonn
  • AirbladeOrange
  • Varpulis






... Next time I'm going to write a program instead of doing all this by hand.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
chaoser
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
United States5541 Posts
May 10 2011 07:56 GMT
#1474
[astral voice]psht, there's only 3 mafia left[/astral voice]
Haven't you heard? I'm not an ex-progamer. I'm not a poker player. I'm not an admin of the site. I'm mother fucking Rekrul.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 07:57 GMT
#1475
O WHOOPS

ok then 3 of the 4. Probably the first 3.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:00 GMT
#1476
I wish I can edit posts. The reasons why I need more data are:

1. randomness. If you only have 2 days to use as data, one day can be an anomaly and you wouldn't know. But if you have 10 days worth of data, patterns can be much more pronounced than temporary anomalies.

2. calibration. The numerical values I assigned to each behavioral patterns are not final. With more data, I can tweak those values and introduce new parameters to better predict the reds.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:16 GMT
#1477
All right. I got permission to edit two of the pics. See edited.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 10 2011 08:16 GMT
#1478
orglove could you show how the numbers would look not taking into account the last minute jump onto amber. After chaoser claimed dt I feel like everyone was pretty much forced to vote amber regardless of being town/mafia and the only people who didn't were probably the ones who weren't online in time.

So basically I would like to know what the numbers would look like if voting had stopped at 11:15 with dropbears vote.
Moderator
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 08:20 GMT
#1479
Man I can't believe this. DropBear is mafia. He says elmizzt is suspicious for interacting with EM and then says EM is town. LOL way to go DropBear.
I'm saying this right now EM is mafia and so is DropBear.
I'm also willing to bet that EM is Mafia goon and asked for a vig shot so we would not kill GGQ, the mafia RoleBlocker.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:22 GMT
#1480
On May 10 2011 17:16 Mig wrote:
orglove could you show how the numbers would look not taking into account the last minute jump onto amber. After chaoser claimed dt I feel like everyone was pretty much forced to vote amber regardless of being town/mafia and the only people who didn't were probably the ones who weren't online in time.

So basically I would like to know what the numbers would look like if voting had stopped at 11:15 with dropbears vote.


The numbers come out like this when I take away all the points from votes after 11:15:
[image loading]
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
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