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TL Mafia XXXIX - Page 75

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 08:22 GMT
#1481
The simple fact that Cthsazsa was a strong lynchtarget the last turn, but show up as -17 (!) in the graph, tells us that this technique is unreliable at best.
:3
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 08:25 GMT
#1482
Orgolove, could you throw up the calculations that resulted in those numbers for the following players? Jaminz, MIg, Orgolove and Cthsazsa.

I just want to know why they come so far down.
:3
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:27 GMT
#1483
10 out of those 17 comes from the fact that he came second to a red lynch, and all the high red-value players were willing to vote on him and see him through before the votes turned against them...

It's not like Amber was the godfather or even the roleblocker. Amber was just a mafia goon, and the reds were willing to lynch Cthsazsa over Amber...

I think I can be very sure that Cthsazsa is town aligned.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 08:28 GMT
#1484
Why does redtooth go from -9,5 in the first list, to 2 in the next, just by removing the changes after the DT-claim?
:3
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 08:28 GMT
#1485
If anyone is not convinced needs further analysis to vote for EM I will provide, but if you just look carefully at the analysis EM posted of me you can see how much bullshit it contains.

I.E. I said "Amber[Light] is overly defensive" and said "Amber[Light] does not really defend anyone" and he claims this is contradictory. How is this contradictory? In the context it was said you can clearly see I refering: In the first sentence Overly defensive = himself
In the second = others

That's only an example of a clearly misleading analysis, you can find many in it.
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4353 Posts
May 10 2011 08:30 GMT
#1486
On May 10 2011 17:28 sandroba wrote:
If anyone is not convinced needs further analysis to vote for EM I will provide, but if you just look carefully at the analysis EM posted of me you can see how much bullshit it contains.

I.E. I said "Amber[Light] is overly defensive" and said "Amber[Light] does not really defend anyone" and he claims this is contradictory. How is this contradictory? In the context it was said you can clearly see I refering: In the first sentence Overly defensive = himself
In the second = others

That's only an example of a clearly misleading analysis, you can find many in it.

Can you link me to his analysis of you please?
Sucker for nostalgia
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 08:31 GMT
#1487
Orgolove, while I apreciate the effort and those calculation help us see somethings better, they are not our main tool for catching mafia. Mafia are those who are misleading the town on purpose.
Those are EM and DropBear.
Forumite
Profile Joined February 2011
Sweden3280 Posts
May 10 2011 08:31 GMT
#1488
On May 10 2011 17:27 orgolove wrote:
10 out of those 17 comes from the fact that he came second to a red lynch, and all the high red-value players were willing to vote on him and see him through before the votes turned against them...

It's not like Amber was the godfather or even the roleblocker. Amber was just a mafia goon, and the reds were willing to lynch Cthsazsa over Amber...

I think I can be very sure that Cthsazsa is town aligned.

Why do you take away 10p for something like that? There is nothing stopping Mafia from voting on eachother, in fact I think they do it all the time to throw us off.

Anyway I´d like the whole total, not just where those 10 come from.
:3
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
May 10 2011 08:34 GMT
#1489
On May 10 2011 17:22 Forumite wrote:
The simple fact that Cthsazsa was a strong lynchtarget the last turn, but show up as -17 (!) in the graph, tells us that this technique is unreliable at best.


Well I think it should be pretty obvious at this point that Cthsazsa is town. I believe several of the mafia probably put themselves out there trying to get the lynch from amber onto cth, we already know GGQ did this. If they were both mafia I imagine the mafia would have just hung back or tried to come up with a 3rd lynch candidate.
Moderator
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 08:36 GMT
#1490
On May 10 2011 17:30 DropBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2011 17:28 sandroba wrote:
If anyone is not convinced needs further analysis to vote for EM I will provide, but if you just look carefully at the analysis EM posted of me you can see how much bullshit it contains.

I.E. I said "Amber[Light] is overly defensive" and said "Amber[Light] does not really defend anyone" and he claims this is contradictory. How is this contradictory? In the context it was said you can clearly see I refering: In the first sentence Overly defensive = himself
In the second = others

That's only an example of a clearly misleading analysis, you can find many in it.

Can you link me to his analysis of you please?


No, you are mafia.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:38 GMT
#1491
On May 10 2011 17:25 Forumite wrote:
Orgolove, could you throw up the calculations that resulted in those numbers for the following players? Jaminz, MIg, Orgolove and Cthsazsa.

I just want to know why they come so far down.


Jaminz:
day 1:
+1 from voting for a confirmed blue
+0.5 from voting within an hour of GGQ

day 2:
+0.5 from voting within an hour of GGQ
-1 from voting Amber
-3 from voting on a red when the lynch was on a non-red
-5 from making the vote to change the totals from a non-red lynch to tie

total: -7



Mig:
day 1:
+1 from voting a confirmed green

day 2:
-1 from voting Amber (confirmed red)
-3 from voting on a red when a non-red is leading the lynch
-5 from making the vote to change the totals from a non-red lynch to tie

Total: -8


Orgolove (lol)
day 1:
0.5 from changing vote once

day 2:
0.5 from changing vote once
-1 from voting a confirmed red
-3 from voting on a red when a non-red is leading the lynch
-5 from making the vote to change the totals from a non-red lynch to tie

Total: -8


Cthsazsa:
Day 2:

vote on May 9th, 4:52
+0.5 from changing vote once

vote on May 9th, 9:35
+1 from changing vote 2nd time
+0.5 from voting within an hour of a confirmed red (GGQ)
-1 from voting for a confirmed red
-3 from voting on a red when there's a tie
-5 from making the vote to change the totals from a tie to a red lynch

adjustment
-10 coming 2nd place in a closely fought red lynch
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
elmizzt
Profile Joined February 2010
United States3309 Posts
May 10 2011 08:38 GMT
#1492
On May 10 2011 17:36 sandroba wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2011 17:30 DropBear wrote:
On May 10 2011 17:28 sandroba wrote:
If anyone is not convinced needs further analysis to vote for EM I will provide, but if you just look carefully at the analysis EM posted of me you can see how much bullshit it contains.

I.E. I said "Amber[Light] is overly defensive" and said "Amber[Light] does not really defend anyone" and he claims this is contradictory. How is this contradictory? In the context it was said you can clearly see I refering: In the first sentence Overly defensive = himself
In the second = others

That's only an example of a clearly misleading analysis, you can find many in it.

Can you link me to his analysis of you please?


No, you are mafia.

LOL
d=(^_^)z
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:40 GMT
#1493
On May 10 2011 17:28 Forumite wrote:
Why does redtooth go from -9,5 in the first list, to 2 in the next, just by removing the changes after the DT-claim?


He cast the critical vote right after dropbear that first moved the vote from a non-red lynch to a red lynch. Further, his vote was changed from Cthsazsa directly to Amber, which in and of itself is worth -6.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 08:41 GMT
#1494
Can we please drop the numbers discussion and focus n behaviour?
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:42 GMT
#1495
On May 10 2011 17:31 sandroba wrote:
Orgolove, while I apreciate the effort and those calculation help us see somethings better, they are not our main tool for catching mafia. Mafia are those who are misleading the town on purpose.
Those are EM and DropBear.


Well, we can agree that Dropbear is a major target. Shall we vote for them, and ask the DTs to check EM, ilovejonn, or AirBladeOrange?
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 08:43 GMT
#1496
I'm not sold on ilovejonn and AO atm.
We should focus on EM first.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:44 GMT
#1497
We can only lynch one at a time. Our targets converge on DropBear. Lets take care of the immediate threat first.
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
sandroba
Profile Joined April 2006
Canada4998 Posts
May 10 2011 08:46 GMT
#1498
The thing is I'm 99% sure on EM and only 90% sure on DropBear.
orgolove
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Vatican City State1650 Posts
May 10 2011 08:47 GMT
#1499
Just because someone posted a faulty analysis of you doesn't mean he's 100% mafia, you know...
초대 갓, 이영호 | First God, Lee Young Ho
DropBear
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Australia4353 Posts
May 10 2011 08:51 GMT
#1500
Alright I've gone and fucked up this game. I apologise to everyone for playing shit. I am claiming Vanilla Townie.

I'm going to stick with the vote on ilovejonn. I don't even have confidence in myself anymore, but I've been looking at him since day 1.

I'm not going to post again for a bit. The last thing I will say is that if EternalMisfit does flip red and everyone tries to kill me next, when I flip green, look at kitaman27 (yay I think I've accused everyone by now) and elmizzt is clear. If EM flips green, kill ilovejonn and redtooth. There is still a godfather out there and they will almost definitely be an experienced player.

Rally around Sandroba. He is wrong about me and he may be about EM as well, I'm not sure, but he is definitely town. So is Cthazsa.
Sucker for nostalgia
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