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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 18 2011 19:41 Scamp wrote:
GMarshal, Node, and Flamewheel need to explain their last-second voting of KavDragon.
Meh, townies do this all the time. Mafia very rarely do this. If Incog flips red at some point, then lets come back to this, but for now....
Also, if we assume that one of Barundar and Incognito is green and one red, then it would have made sense for mafia to stack the votes on the opposite player, since these were the leading candidates. Not to try to rally another player who was still 3 votes away. If both were green, then mafia players would never make a last minute push for Kav, another green player.
A last minute push for Kav only makes sense in the context that both Incog and Barundar are red. This is possible, but unlikely given that Barundar was pushing for Incog (who looked like he was getting lynched).
I guess from this I have to infer that Barundar is probably town. The problem is that at this point every time I read his posts my eyes mist over red, so I'm going to have to let other players be the judge of him moving forward.
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But for now what? What's wrong with getting more information?
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I guess from this I have to infer that Barundar is probably town. The problem is that at this point every time I read his posts my eyes mist over red, so I'm going to have to let other players be the judge of him moving forward.
I was looking forward to hearing from you when I flipped!
In all seriousness I pretty much ignored your analysis as stupid and went to bed fed up. But if you have questions for me I'll try and answer as well as I can.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 18 2011 20:08 Scamp wrote:
But for now what? What's wrong with getting more information?
Fair enough, there's nothing at all wrong with it. I'm just trying to head off any knee-jerk accusations.
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On May 18 2011 20:10 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +I guess from this I have to infer that Barundar is probably town. The problem is that at this point every time I read his posts my eyes mist over red, so I'm going to have to let other players be the judge of him moving forward. I was looking forward to hearing from you when I flipped! In all seriousness I pretty much ignored your analysis as stupid and went to bed fed up. But if you have questions for me I'll try and answer as well as I can.
I think it basically comes down to this: You're somewhat tentative in your posting, and tend to offer sensible, sometimes obvious, but always general advice. Your vote post on Incognito screamed mafia to me, because it's so very tentative and wishy washy. You kinda put reasons for voting Incog out there, but don't actively push them, and don't really try to convince anyone to you viewpoint. For me this rang alot of alarm bells.
Also, since the lynch your posting is still making me think scum. In one post you throw minor suspicion on about 6 or 7 different people, but don't really make any strong statements any which way.
Anyways, the data is pointing me in another direction, so I'm forced to conclude for the moment that my issue is with you posting style more than anything. Also, I've been wrong many times before on Day 1(and let it color my perception), so unless someone else really leads the charge, I doubt I'll push for you again.
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Well I had the choice between pushing for my own suspects, which included the inactives OriginalName, KillerSOS and Kitaman87, or go for one of the targets others provided. It wouldn't be reasonable to introduce new targets, when we already had 10 targets and really didn't need more confusion.
My tentative posting boils down to having to choice between a bunch of lynches, none of which I could say I felt completely good about.
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
You're right--there's no real reason to protect me tonight. My survivability problems comes up every other night. You know the beauty of Jack though? Am I actually going to shoot somebody, like Eiii, deconduo, GMarshal, chaoser, KillerSOS, Chezinu, Fishball, OriginalName, bumatlarge, dreamflower, or Scamp? Will I do the more sensible thing and check one of them first? Or will I protect somebody--another or myself?
If there are investigative roles though, it'd be totally chill if you wanted to check /track/watch me. Of course, with quite a few role- and alignment-altering roles out there, take what you find (off of anybody you check) with a teaspoon of salt. Because of that, it might be worth it to check somebody not so high on the "needing to be checked list". Oh, and since Ver isn't online right now:
How exactly does the Mafia XII Godfather's covering ability work? Does he choose a new person every night? Or is it permanent? And is he limited to only Mafia?
Before I go over why the people I listed above should potentially be shot or checked tonight (some not so much shot as the checked though), let's talk about who does deserve medic protection.
I agree with the posters above for the most part. Medic protection for Caller and Radfield--please don't let Radfield die night 1 as always. Besides the CPR Doctor and my own occasional medic powers, there are only three protecting roles--the medic and two variants of doctor. And it's pretty unlikely that all three, or even two of the three, were chosen. Incognito theoretically could use Medic protection, though given that he's suspicious I doubt he's going to be popped tonight. Nobody else has shown any signs of being "pro-town", so there is no need to protect them. Don't protect me, bumatlarge, Ace, Scamp (if he is indeed the inventor), or others until we have shown that we are worth protecting.
Now then, on to people who are worth popping and dusting. You'll notice that my given list is over ten long--and I'm not even including everybody in this soirée. Obviously, not all these people can be Mafia. To varying degrees though, the majority can be lumped into sometimes-overlapping "inactive" and "useless" groups. Of course, given the deplorable state of TL towns, naturally some less-than-useful townies are thrust into the mix.
- Eiii hasn't done anything yet and doesn't post anything of value--though he's obviously reading the thread. All in all this wouldn't be all too so damning, but with his latest post...
- deconduo has to go serve food to the Queen of England. As cool as that sounds (and I hope you tell us all about it when you return), his posts are beyond useless. What with the "lynch me" campaign and pretty much nothing else after that, it's worth checking or shooting him, with the latter being highly more preferred if he doesn't start talking before the night is up. Considering he's ranked relatively high on the list, it's ludicrous to say that he doesn't have a role. At the very least, if he doesn't he should tell us what he went for.
- GMarshal is dubious, though I don't think he's Mafia right now. Since he doesn't have BloodyC0bbler checking and editing his posts for him this time though, it'll become ridiculously apparent as time goes on. Not very worth checking, but if you keep second-guessing yourself as to whether or not the person[s] you actually want to check are uncheckable...
- chaoser is somebody that I'd personally skip the check on and straight up shoot. He announced his interviews had finished in thread. Since then, he's made two posts: one vote for Incognito, and one woodworks post in expressing his astonishment at the Kavdragon wagon (hey cool that's a catchy term). Time constraints aside (and he hypothetically made time to 'catch up' on the thread after he announced the completion of his interview), this isn't the Chaoser from XXXVIII. He's not being inactive; he's lurking. And all good marines kill lurkers on sight. Start contributing more before the night is over, or risk getting shot.
- KillerSOS is actually useless, from what we've seen. He's actually not worth checking or shooting right now, even if he has the most imba-awesome-gosu-leet-pro role there is. Roles don't win the game: people effectively using those roles do. KillerSOS is not a high-profile, high-impact target--quite the opposite. With only limited number of checks going around, he shouldn't be high on the list.
- Chezinu is Chezinu. He's included on this list merely for completeness' sake. WiFOM aside, considering how unreadable he is, Chezinu is somebody that would be covered by a role- or alignment-changing power. Is he worth checking? Not above the other people. Is he worth shooting? Not yet.
- Fishball is, in his own words, not pro-town. He isn't pro-Mafia though either. That's a start, right? No. Fishball plays like this pretty much every game--useless. He's worth a check, and potentially worth a shot later on in the game.
- OriginalName is placed in the same sub-section as KillerSOS. He doesn't contribute or even say anything of value, and that's why he's not high on the current list of those who deserve a check or a bullet for the same reasons I gave for KillerSOS. If he becomes a problem in the future days, put him down. As of right now, he can effectively be ignored at night.
- bumatlarge got a relatively high draft order spot, and claims he's going to do stuff. Defends Kavdragon pretty strongly early on, but only returns right after his lynch to tell us that we were being silly. Worth a check, not really a shot.
- dreamflower is pretty inactive, though from what I've read she doesn't post much more than this earlier. If her play this game is anything like her Hatter play though, the lack of posting is totally excusable. Still is worth a check, not so much a shot.
- Scamp--is he really the Inventor? Despite being pretty useless in thread, his high draft order and purported role could be gamebreaking for either side. Best not to leave the potentially biggest variable unknown.
I'm not going to list with definitives who people should check. I've just laid out the options that first came to my head. Take them as you will.
It's not really worth a response at this point, but Scamp I voted Kavdragon because I didn't believe either Incognito or Barundar to be Mafia, and from not actually bothering to carefully peruse the thread I didn't have anybody in mind of my own that was more suspicious. By all means, hold me, and everybody else who voted for Kavdragon accountable for our actions. It was obviously not a good lynch, but it served to reaffirm my belief that Mafia are playing a relatively inactive game. For the most part, I'd say that out of the actually-red right now, the majority are laying low, and one member is clandestinely causing clamor. This is why my list contains, for the most part, people who are mostly seem to be keeping quiet. It's impossible to be certain at the moment, but I'd say that checking those who lurk is the best way to catch Mafia right now.
There are fears in my mind as to what can happen this night. There are many effective one-two instagib wombo combos the Mafia can pull off if they've grabbed the right role[s]. As such, I'm not going to give them any more ideas than they might already have. I won't be posting much more for the night unless something decently obvious grabs my attention, since I'm hoping to have much more consolidated and spam-free material to work with tomorrow.
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
Sigh, so many grammatical errors... Such is the byproduct of the early morning.
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Alright, I'm up. Okay, I was wrong. My bad Kavdragon. Still, we get some interesting information out of this.
In large mafia games, I've found that mafia tend not to be involved in last minute bandwagons if it doesn't win them the game outright or something along those lines. Instead, they're content to plant their vote in some corner to avoid getting list checked or whatnot, and watch as town scrambles to and fro. They find it to be too risky to stick their necks out by doing some vote switcheroo at the last minute, and combined with some other thoughts-namely, GMarshal's willingness to take a vig hit tonight, flamewheel's already strong town vibes-leads me to think that looking at the last minute bandwagon on Kev, I'm pretty sure its a red herring. Role checks should still probably go out for everyone on that list that's also on the top 6 roles (flamewheel, me, etc.) but i think trying to look deeply into the day 1 bandwagon itself is a waste of time and roles.
On the other hand, the people who DO tend to be mafia in those situations are the ones that cry "omg the bandwagon someone stop it." and then proceed to do nothing about it.
like this person
On May 18 2011 13:18 infinitestory wrote:
ok wtf is this
Incognito leads in lynch votes with less than 3 hours left in Day 1.
Ace unvotes Incognito, switching to Radfield.
Suddenly, 3 more votes on Kavdragon.
I feel like this is suspicious, but it also reeks of WIFOM.
or this person
On May 18 2011 14:05 chaoser wrote:
woah woah wtf @ switch from incognito to Kavdragon.
or this person
On May 18 2011 14:10 KillerSOS wrote:
Wow, that was a quick swap to Kav. Makes me a bit nervous.
Now obviously this isn't a scumtell by itself. So let's look at some other pieces of information. Like, the aftermath. People who are mafia tend to comment on how good their foresight was-when in fact, the only reason they had the foresight is because they know damn well who is mafia and who isn't. Someone like...
On May 18 2011 14:13 KillerSOS wrote:
Well that was unexpected.
..Not
I was wrong about Kev, but it appears that his sacrifice was not in vain.
##FOS KillerSOS
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Barundar,You were so against lynching a vanilla townie,now that one has been lynched,what are Your thoughts what is going to happen now?
I dislike the fact EU and US are taking turns,while the most of the discussion emerges I am peacefully sleeping/sitting in class. I think both Barundar and Kavdragon tried too hard Day1,though Kav was more aggressive. Incog on the other hand was really active too,though never overreacted,I don't think we could have the correct lynch on the Day1.
I am worried about Fishball,he does not care about me,noone cares about him too much,besides saying he's useless and overly passive. The lurkers/useless people are probably waiting for their time,there emerges a concern: when they're going to act? Is their act will be helping us in the lynching scum?
Chezinu wanted to play with us a bit,but nobody hopefully fell for that. He's one of those whose need start acting.
I'd leave those for now though and check people who were active and suspicious during the day.
Namely - deconduo,he claimed day1 (vanilla townie),grabbed a white flag with "I am useless" on it and started waving it,why?
Scamp - he claims Inventor,I'd prefer the alignment check,just to know what is going on..
Barundar and Incognito were the people on fire,I'd rather lean they're townies,more money on Barundar though,his play was similar to Kavdragon(trying to take initiative,overreacted a bit) I'd rather see him as Townie.
If Incognito is scum,he will slip off in the meantime,for now,as I said he is most likely another Townie
Who I'd bet is scum right now? Chaoser. I played with him in the Mafia XXXIX and as vet he claimed DT and got scum,it was a huge gambit,which paid off in some way (he got stacked the next night,probably to avoid doc covering him,or just maf knew there's no doc,though game is still underway) He is not as active,not as keen,not as aggressive as in the past game. Someone pointed out that he said he was going to be more active and never was. Unless I am convinced otherwise I will go after Chaoser during the day,while I disagree with shooting him(he could really be bother with rl),he might be checked. He will have enough fire under his feet to clear that we will may or not bring a case against him.
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On May 18 2011 16:31 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Ok then, here's my thoughts for tonight:
Role-Checks:
These are the people who, at the moment, it would be a good idea to check their role. If scum got any of the first queue spots, they're likely to have taken a strong scum role from the no-pick list.
Flamewheel
Scamp
Caller
Barundar
Radfield
GMarshal
Alignment Checks:
These are the people I find somewhat suspicious, or who it would be nice to have an alignment check on.
Barundar
Node
Tnkted
Incognito
Radfield
Ace
Vig-Hit:
Deconduo
I'm thinking he's VI, maybe mafia Hero, either way he isn't helping town, and I don't want to waste a lynch on him later. Debatable.
Medic list:
These are the people I think ought to be protected. Either they're acting pro-town already, or have good potential to help town day 2.
Caller
bumatlarge
Radfield
Incognito
Flamewheel
Foolishness
This is just a summary of my thoughts at the moment. Disagree? Want to add? Just cause it's night doesn't mean we need to shut up.
Why don't I see myself on any list? 
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On May 18 2011 20:45 flamewheel wrote:- Fishball is, in his own words, not pro-town. He isn't pro-Mafia though either. That's a start, right? No. Fishball plays like this pretty much every game--useless. He's worth a check, and potentially worth a shot later on in the game.
Aw, now I'm butt hurt. Not "doing" much early on, is equal to I'm useless every game now huh? You either have selective memory, or you have your own propaganda to appeal to the masses.
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On May 18 2011 19:57 Radfield wrote: Ace, your attack of the Barundar train is silly given the fact that Kav flipped town. Basically what you're saying is that Barundar was an easy target for mafia to lump in on. That makes no sense, since they(we) were given an excellent opportunity to vote for Kavdragon instead, who flipped town. Anyone who needed a place to vote could have been 'persuaded' to vote Kav at any time. Now, that being said, the Barundar vote was the initial 2nd choice to voting for Incognito, so if by chance mafia were attempting to save Incog, then Barundar would have been the place to vote. However, if you're looking at votes to save Incog, it's the three that came down the stretch for Kav that did it. NO votes came down the stretch for Barundar(except for Foolishness, a valiant effort, but a failed one). Bumatlarge. Where were you(I don't mean this literally)? You vehemently defended Kavdragon early on, but completely disappeared for 6 hours, despite the heat growing considerably on him, only to pop in 1 minute after the day post to apologize. You never once pushed for Barundar, a player who was a viable alternative to Kav. Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 14:25 bumatlarge wrote:
Are you guys honestly trying to pin this as kav's fault? You guys are all awful, Im 100x better then all of you. Excuse me while I net us some scum. No need to be aggressive when you did so little to stop it from happening. In other news, I look forward to you netting us scum.
No, it's very valid. There has not been one credible argument against Barundar. Ever. Just because KavCaprio flipped Town doesn't mean Barundar is Scum. The Barundar train was terrible, just stop trying to pass it off.
As for the bolded don't try and say "this is what you were saying". It wasn't. If I wanted to say it or imply it - I would have said it. Barundar and KavCaprio could both be innocent. Then what? Why would the mafia have to be "persuaded" to do anything? It's two innocents. As long as no mafia die there isn't any WIFOM there. It makes excellent sense.
You and Incognito are the top 2 suspects. One for the KavCaprio lynch, the other for the Barundar train. This "Barundar was an alternative lynch" spiel is utter garbage. Show me just ONE credible case against him.
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Time constraints aside (and he hypothetically made time to 'catch up' on the thread after he announced the completion of his interview), this isn't the Chaoser from XXXVIII. He's not being inactive; he's lurking. And all good marines kill lurkers on sight.
Sorry sorry, I had a few things come up that I needed to take care of and so although I said I was going to catch up, I didn't quite do it. I wasn't even able to write up a day/night post for the mafia game I was cohosting with GM so that should say something about that. That being said, I am now actually free and so will catch up and write up something by 4-5, you can hold me to that one.
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On May 18 2011 22:16 Caller wrote:Alright, I'm up. Okay, I was wrong. My bad Kavdragon. Still, we get some interesting information out of this. In large mafia games, I've found that mafia tend not to be involved in last minute bandwagons if it doesn't win them the game outright or something along those lines. Instead, they're content to plant their vote in some corner to avoid getting list checked or whatnot, and watch as town scrambles to and fro. They find it to be too risky to stick their necks out by doing some vote switcheroo at the last minute, and combined with some other thoughts-namely, GMarshal's willingness to take a vig hit tonight, flamewheel's already strong town vibes-leads me to think that looking at the last minute bandwagon on Kev, I'm pretty sure its a red herring. Role checks should still probably go out for everyone on that list that's also on the top 6 roles (flamewheel, me, etc.) but i think trying to look deeply into the day 1 bandwagon itself is a waste of time and roles. On the other hand, the people who DO tend to be mafia in those situations are the ones that cry "omg the bandwagon someone stop it." and then proceed to do nothing about it. like this person Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 13:18 infinitestory wrote:
ok wtf is this
Incognito leads in lynch votes with less than 3 hours left in Day 1.
Ace unvotes Incognito, switching to Radfield.
Suddenly, 3 more votes on Kavdragon.
I feel like this is suspicious, but it also reeks of WIFOM. or this person Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 14:05 chaoser wrote:
woah woah wtf @ switch from incognito to Kavdragon. or this person Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 14:10 KillerSOS wrote:
Wow, that was a quick swap to Kav. Makes me a bit nervous. Now obviously this isn't a scumtell by itself. So let's look at some other pieces of information. Like, the aftermath. People who are mafia tend to comment on how good their foresight was-when in fact, the only reason they had the foresight is because they know damn well who is mafia and who isn't. Someone like... I was wrong about Kev, but it appears that his sacrifice was not in vain. ##FOS KillerSOS
Yeah man, knowing the lynch on Kev was wrong automatically makes me suspicious.
Or it could just make me intelligent, who knows?
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On May 18 2011 19:19 Radfield wrote:
So much for 100% eh Incog....
On the bright side, this lynch hopefully gives us oodles of information down the line, once incog and Barundars alignment flips. On another bright note, Incognito won't get targeted by mafia tonight, so in the event he is town he'll probably survive the night. Unless of course a townie shoots him, but if that's the case so be it.
Mr. Wiggles, I very much disagree with your rolecheck list. There is a list of roles in this game that no townie should be caught dead with, so we want to use our rolechecks to try and ascertain alignment. Checking the people at the top of the list gives us very little information regarding their alignment. The top 6/7 all have an excellent excuse(whether legit or not) for taking an anti-town role. No one else on the list has that excuse. Anyone with a role check should be looking at whomever they think is scummy lower down on the list. If they have a scummy role(a role on the no-pick list) then they're probably mafia.
Why is this such a contradiction? I thought the whole point of the "no pick list" is that townies wouldn't pick them, for any reason, to avoid this exact WIFOM. Now you're trying to say that people at the top have an excuse to take anti-town roles? What excuse? That they wanted to deny mafia the role? Then what about people lower down the list? Maybe they just wanted to check if the role had already been taken? That was the point of not picking the roles is to avoid this WIFOM, and to be able to straight up kill people found with those roles. It's funny, because Barundar wanted to avoid lynching into the top of the list earlier as well.
So, I'm going to say it again, people near the top of the list are worth a role-check, and possibly an alignment check. Use your discretion. We can deal with bullshit excuses as they come up, because anyone can come up with a fake reason for taking a role, and even if we decide not to kill them, we can still keep tabs on them.
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Ok, I just submitted three papers. One more final is friday, but its for computer science, so as long as I can remember the differences between public and protected classes I should be ok.
Lets talk about incognito. I'm convinced that he is town.
On May 17 2011 07:30 bumatlarge wrote:
If you don't know what to post and you are town, just copy GMarshal. Write whatever you feel will help town, and even if it's awful, we can more easily determine your alignment. Not saying GM is faw shaw townie, but he isn't on my scumdar at all.
When barundar posted this earlier I don't think that anyone read it very carefully. Townies should not be afraid to put forth their ideas, no matter how stupid they are. Don't be afraid to accuse somebody you think is scum. It's ok to rely on other people's scumsense when you play, by which I mean that if you are a townie, and act how you naturally feel is the best course of action, you will smell like a townie to those with good scumnoses. It's alright to trust that other people will be able to read you. The easiest way to look town is to actually be town. Its ok to trust yourself; it is harder for a townie to unintentionally act scummy than it is for a scum to unintentionally act scummy.
This is a fairly advanced mafia doctrine. Most newer players tend not to believe this; they overvalue their own lives, and think that their death, right now, is the worst possible thing for town. When asked to rationalize this to themselves they say something like, "well, town is wasting a lynch" or "mafia is going to get another kill if we don't thin their numbers tonight." Unless its lylo or getting close to the end of the game, this is almost always false; by the time town is at that point in the game theres so much info out there anyway that a smart town should be able to pick out scummy players already.
So how does this mean incog is green? Lets look at one of his posts. I bolded some of the more assertive comments (in spoilers, because the post is long):
+ Show Spoiler +On May 14 2011 13:30 Incognito wrote:List of invisible posters:GMarshal
Kitaman27
tnktedBum's post is on spot. Fortunately, I already mapped out some stuff. PYP Insane Game Plan The optimal picking strategy revolves around this cute little role: Show nested quote +Thief
You have the ability to steal the role of a specific player one time per game at night, meaning they lose their role and become vanilla, while you gain it. If you steal from a vanilla player, nothing happens to them and you gain nothing. You cannot steal the role of a traitor or mole. Neither you nor they may not use their role the cycle you steal from them. The following cycle after you steal you can use their role freely with the same limits taken from them. For example if the vote rigger already used his double lynch before you stole it, you will not be able to use it. This role obsoletes the PYP1 and PYP3 role picking strategies. The mere existence of the thief on the role list means that it would be seriously harmful for mafia to know where the good roles are. Of course, it’s a no brainer that the good roles are in the beginning part of the list. So my only advice is that if you’re in the beginning of the list, seriously consider picking a role such as NRA member or Meth Man to deter the mafia from hitting/stealing roles from the top of the list.Due to the fact that the mafia can coordinate numbers with each other while the town can’t, it is very likely that mafia will get a spot within the top 3. As shown by the past PYP games, mafia has gotten the first or second spot in all 3 games. Which means town will likely have to be on the defensive, as it is hard to guarantee that we can effectively deny mafia the thief role. The amount of potential KP in this game is huge. This means that there is a huge potential for the game to end quickly. The basic town strategy should be to avoid KP roles, while going heavy on investigative and defensive roles to try to prolong the game.Tier I RolesMafia 2 Detective + Vote Rigger Inventor Chuiu Jack Modern Detective Role Cop Bullet Bill PYP3 Veteran Doctor Bulletproof Mafia 2 Detective combined with the Vote Rigger is a combo that allows us to break up the town into chunks and analyze with greater ease. The formula is simple. The Vote Rigger rigs the Day 1 Vote into 4 roughly equal blocks with 7, 6, 6, and 5 voters each. All the lurkers/suspicious people are piled onto one list, and the Modern Detective uses his vote check to check one vote block each day, starting with the lurkers. Town then proceeds to analyze the split lists, allowing for more focused analyses. The rest of the investigative roles are used to sort through the lists, while the defensive roles prolong the game and squeeze the mafia. The Mafia will want these rolesKingmaker + Politician Thief Caller Godfather Roleblocker Janitor JailKeeper Puppeteer Hero PYP3 Veteran NRA Member CPR Doctor The best mafia combo pick is Kingmaker + Politician. This effectively gives mafia an unlimited anonymous unblockable dayvig power, capable of sniping off all the top town players. Caller Godfather is also an obvious mafia role. As anyone who’s read Caller’s Mafia V knows, Godfather recruiting high level townies with good roles is a town’s worst nightmare. Denying this role is iffy, as a mafia thief has plenty of time to try to find the role and steal it before it can actually be of use. Jailkeeper, roleblocker, and NRA member are powerful roles for the mafia that prevent investigations, and potentially save mafia from NKs. Hero and PYP 3 veteran cause town pain when mafia slip out of lynches and snipe off a townie. Lastly, puppeteer is surprisingly useful for a good mafia arguer, as it allows them to anonymously mislead town and cause tons of chaos in the thread. However, the most critical roles that we need to deny are the Thief, Politician, Jailkeeper, and Roleblocker. Due to the threat of a mafia thief, we can’t discuss precise strategy here, but townies should strongly consider picking one of these 4 roles. By the way KillerSOS is mafia. Also Node is mafia.
Independently of whether you think his ideas are good (I disagree with the danger from thief, personally), simply reading his language makes clear that he is doing two things:
1. Taking charge of the situation (using phrases like, "Townies should pick these roles...")
2. Coming up with strategies (using phrases like, "The optimal strategy for town is...")
There is a subtle, but important difference in between these two types of statements. Statements that take charge of the situation are assertive; they are always controlling, demanding, and forceful. they tell us to "do" something. Planning statements, however, are often not assertive at all. For example, lets take a look at a post by Chaoser:
On May 17 2011 02:20 chaoser wrote:Show nested quote +On May 16 2011 23:41 Incognito wrote:
Whoever is the vote rigger should rig the votes into 4 sections of roughly equal sizes. Try to spread out the people with the same numbers onto different lists. Well first I think, before the vote rigger does this, the day they want to change he vote, they should claim in thread if they're going to do this. Second, I think just randomly making lists isn't that great a plan. Instead we should wait till we have a suspects list and then do a regular vote while moving the people we suspect onto a separate person/vote. We either catch a few mafia or check some people. That being said, we should be wary of roles that can cover themselves which I want to ask Ver about: Which roles won't get caught by a votecheck?
This is extremely passive. He says, "I think we should do this..." instead of, "This is the best plan." Then he points out that randomly making lists is stupid, and provides a different idea, which he immediately weakens by pointing out that roles can cover themselves. Why point out the plan in the first place if you hadn't thought it through?
I don't think this makes chaoser look scummy in and of itself but it certainly doesn't make me think that's town. The reason for it is this: In this specific post, Chaoser is afraid to take a stand. Incognito, in the post I quoted above, is not afraid.
I therefore conclude that Incognito was either scummily trying to take advantage of a power vacuum (which he wasn't, there are plenty of other strong posters/personalities in the thread during this game, Ace and GM and radfield and infinitestory come to mind), or he is town and trusts the rest of us to recognize that he is being honest.
Incognito is green.
Now, when I last graced your company, GM asked me to post a scumlist. I can do that.
Here are the scummiest people on the board:
Mr. Wiggles - He's acting like a very cautious version of himself; it's been pointed out several times.
Foolishness - Has hardly posted at all, and when he has its been encouraging wifom like this:
On May 17 2011 05:14 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On May 17 2011 05:05 Radfield wrote:
It's possible that the reason Incognito is proposing his vote rigging plan is because he took the M2DT role and wants the vote rigger to follow his plan. Either way, that's for the vote rigger to decide, so there's no point in discussing it.
As far as our day 1 lynch goes, we need to be wary of the Copy Cat role. I think in both PYP games I've played, copy cat was taken by mafia. With a town strategy of role denial, this is again a likely choice for mafia. As such, I think the top players in the draft should not be the focus of our Day 1 lynch. I also realize that I'm in the top part of the draft, so my bias is clear, but hopefully my reasoning makes sense.
Therefore, if you want to build a case against someone in the top 6-8 picks(as I do), I recommend you wait until Day 2, when the Copy Cat role has been allocated. Incognito is third to last on the draft order, no way he got one of those two roles. And as someone already pointed out, the obscene amount of number collisions on the bottom half of the draft give way to the idea that most mafia are probably in the top half. Someone said this is a wifom argument, which I have to strongly disagree with. In a game like this with imba roles and a near unlimited amount of imba combo's, would mafia really pick the same numbers so as to possibly construct a wifom argument in the late game to save them from getting lynched? Heck no. If this was a normal PYP game I could potentially see the merit in this, but not in this game. If the mafia spread out and get a lot of members in the top 5 or slots (which very well may be the case this game) they could easily grab some imba combo a win in 2 or 3 days. It's pointless for us to sit here and speculate what kind of imba combo's the mafia might have, but we should definitely assume that 1) there are very many of them and 2) they probably have one.
Would mafia do this one plan? No, because this other plan might work better. I see red wine in front of me.
Barundar - Has been been using the same weak phrasing as Chaoser did above, except he's been doing it all game. I'm less certain about this.
Those are my three scummiest reads (chaoser is a close fourth, but I'll save that for another time). My top three town reads are
1. Incognito - above
2. Radfield - Rad has been probably the most confident townie so far this game, other than possibly Incognito. He's playing like he knows hes town, and hes daring somebody to waste their time trying to prove otherwise. A true red-white-and-blue American.
3. Ace - Ace is really hard to read because he plays such a good scumgame; he completely dominated us in sleeper cell. However this game he's been much less insulting and assertive than he was last time; the difference in behavior leads me to believe that he's town.
Sorry for being afk for most of yesterday. By friday (if I live that long!) I should be more active.
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On May 18 2011 16:46 Barundar wrote:Show nested quote +Alignment Checks:
These are the people I find somewhat suspicious, or who it would be nice to have an alignment check on.
Barundar
Node
Tnkted
Incognito
Radfield
Ace I'd add suspicious votes to the list and remove node and tnkted.
I now find you suspicious simply because you don't think I'm worth the alignment check. I'll freely admit that I haven't been playing particularly well and could easily be justified for a wide variety of night actions.
I'm highly suspicious of chaoser and deconduo. I know damn well that they both can play better than they have been. Chaoser especially I expect more out of. Frankly, I liked chaoser more than any of the other three lynch candidates yesterday, but I didn't want to see Incognito get lynched and thought that the argument against Kav was better than the one against Barundar.
I've also been thinking about infinitestory a bit. He's got a lot of posts, and while none of them seem anti-town, looking back through they rarely actually do much of anything. Jury's still out, here.
Ace is, as usual, difficult to read. I don't think that he's been playing very pro-town. On the other hand, every game that I've observed of him being scum (which I believe is all of them, actually) I've seen him take a much more proactive role. He's the best candidate out there for an alignment check, IMO.
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Ok, so here's my thoughts on the vote-rig/list check plan:
It's a horrible plan. I was kind of getting to that point in my previous posts and that's why I asked Ver for what roles doesn't get caught by it. Assuming mafia has at least 1 mole and they picked up at least one godfather, possibly the Mafia XII Godfather then we have three people that won't be caught by check lists. All this focus on this plan is detrimental to town since we'd probably lose two or three days just getting the lists checked, arguing over if there was covering or not, and tunneling lists where there's actually no mafia, just a frame or cover. There are serious problems to the plan, and so incognito's post:
To all of you voting me, just think how I could possibly be mafia for a second. I come out and post about the vote rigger/list check combo, that apparently nobody else was even thinking about. There is absolutely no reason for me to do this as mafia.
isn't the complete truth since mafia can easily control how the plan would play out.
I don't understand the sudden change from Incognito to Kavdragon. We started off by saying that incognito was acting scummy cause he was pointing fingers everywhere but then all of a sudden that accusation was moved onto Kavdragon. I read Caller's post and while it's true that mafia have no need to take risks, it's not like Incognito took risks right after coming out of the gate. It was only after a bit of pressure was put on him. His later posts are a lot better and I do concede the point that mafia don't want to be front and center but if they ARE front and center, what better way to deflect suspicion than to acknowledge it and then play off it.
Weren't Kavdragon and chaoser having an argument about 24 hours ago? I seem to remember the two of them taking up ~3 pages of posts.
The only person I had an "argument" with is GMarshal and that was cause I fake pressured him that he thought was real pressure. He ended up handling it well in the end but he's still on my watch list. His last minute change to Kavdragon doesn't help get him off said list.
Read up to page 41. Will finish in a bit
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On May 18 2011 14:02 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 11:57 GMarshal wrote:On May 18 2011 11:43 Incognito wrote:So what you're trying to say is: you're ignoring my analysis because you don't like the way I'm playing. Oh wait a second, thats what you did last game! And you turned out to be mafia. Please don't disappoint me. I've posted analyses on Kavdragon here and here. I'm ignoring your analysis of Kav, because as I said its all based on meta considerations. While those are nice to supplement already solid analysis they are a bad thing to base your cases exclusively on, as peoples attitude and style can change from game to game. As I read it your analysis boils down to "he played more aggressive last game, he isn't as aggressive this game". The only thing that might sell me on that lynch is the fact that he isn't pressing any of his accusations, he fingerpoints and then doesn't push for that targets lynch, which, *independent* of meta consideration is a trait of mafia who look to be contributing without contributing. Especially considering all the time he had to "gather information", however I don't think that that alone is damning enough to push for his lynch (and before people say that that's what I did with df and killerSOS, I left killer to the vigis, and am not going to push df and thus derail what seems to be a decent selection of lynch targets). I'm not ignoring your arguments, just saying that in my mind they don't seem to be that solid, come back with posts that show pushing for mafia objectives or a non-town mindset behind them and I'll get behind the kavdragon lynch, but you are going to need something more solid than "he is playing different" to sway me. Ace plays different every game, do we lynch him for that? This turn around is BS. Show nested quote +On May 18 2011 12:45 GMarshal wrote:
Fuck it, I read callers argument against Kav, and I think its the most solid piece of analysis in this thread, no meta considerations, just behavioral analysis. And frankly it makes sense...
Here's hoping that Caller isn't mafia and is just swaying my vote. If you are town, I apologize profusely Kav, nothing sucks more than being the day1 lynch, but it needs to be someone and the case against you makes sense to me. Plus we need to consolidate our votes, we are far too spread out at the moment.
##Unvote
##Vote: Kavdragon
Agree with this post btw.
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EPT
