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On January 28 2011 02:13 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 01:55 darmousseh wrote:Nemsis, then by elimination, is the scum. He is desperately trying to combat all information we gather in clues. Here are some recent posts. 5 mafia according to him.
sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap?
Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths....
Next day, I think it might be more beneficial to check the number of SK's. kitaman, I would rather not depend on clues over post analysis. And fine, if you think the clue leads to him, and want him lynched for the first day. Don't you already have kavdragon's support? Why discuss it further if kav has already decided to lynch him? I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. Almost all of his posts have a negative attitude towards the value of clues and the value of things which would help townies get more information about SKs. Anyone find it hypocritical that Nemesis spends so much time bashing the clue analysis and then proceeds to attempt to find two weak clue references to myself and GMarshal? It should also be noted that Nemesis was one of the more vocal RoL supporters for mayor and neither suspect has attempted to turn on each other yet. Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 01:55 darmousseh wrote:
If we want, a vig can hit RoL, but I think we should save the Vig for later so we can doubly check to make sure he is actually the SK. I believe SK block vig hits since they are bulletproof, so if you are sure he is a SK then a vig hit would be more of a confirmation shot, than a kill shot. If you believe he is mafia, then a vig shot would certainly be appropriate, however.
Oh, I forgot about the bulletproof thing, this is my first game sorry :p. Well, in that case I just say lets lynch him after we lynch nemesis. How many vigilantes are there per game typically? Vig can also act after the next set of clues.
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+ Show Spoiler +On January 28 2011 01:55 darmousseh wrote:Ok so with kav saying there are 5 mafia, and there being probably 1 SK left, (ON was either an SK or mafia, doesn't really matter). That means 2 kp for mafia and 1 kill for SK. What probably happened. SK and mafia happen to pick the same target. SK ends up being the killer. Read this carefully. Show nested quote +And then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on.
Really fills my mind
I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. I read this as, SK kills meapak. mafia tries to kill meapak, but SK already did it so he just shrudders and continues on. Mafia kills thealdo. There is no indication that the person that witnessed the incident and thealdo are the same person. From my reading of the story, they are probably different people. From the clues that have been posted, so far here are my conclusions. RebirthOfLegend is an SK. Nemesis is scum. My reasoning for RoL being an SK is that he has been apprehensive about everything and initially didn't vote himself as mayor. The reason he ended up deciding to try for mayor at all is to prevent a scum from being mayor since he thought there was a possibility that kav was scum. He also is very active so far and has helped more with analysis than a mafia would, but there clues against him are present in the story and he can't deny it. Since he is acting on his own, he has very little support from mafia players and is kinda being surrounded. If he was truly scum, then he would have probably put more effort into becoming mayor. Nemsis, then by elimination, is the scum. He is desperately trying to combat all information we gather in clues. Here are some recent posts. Show nested quote +
sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap?
Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths....
Show nested quote +And fine, if you think the clue leads to him, and want him lynched for the first day. Don't you already have kavdragon's support? Why discuss it further if kav has already decided to lynch him? Show nested quote +I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. Almost all of his posts have a negative attitude towards the value of clues and the value of things which would help townies get more information about SKs. He has provided 1 post which attempted to find clues on the killer and in that post he said Show nested quote +To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. Yet he is basically the only one proposing that the analysis done so far was crap. Almost all of the analysis so far seems very spot on and is confirmed by multiple players. Therefore, for this lynch I propose we lynch nemesis since he is scum and tomorrow we can check the # of mafia to see if we are right. If there is only 1 SK, which I propose is RebirthOfLegend, then there is no harm in letting him live 1 more day since we are likely to get more clues after the next night and we can doubley confirm him and confirm that it is indeed a SK via # of kills. Also the clues pointing towards RoL aren't as decisive as the ones pointing to nemesis. The reason to vote RoL tonight would be to lower the # of SK to 0. If we want, a vig can hit RoL, but I think we should save the Vig for later so we can doubly check to make sure he is actually the SK.
I don't think RoL would be SK, just for the reason that it is EXTREMELY counter-intuitive. You bring attention to yourself, whether through getting hit, or making yourself a potential lynch. I don't see why RoL would decide to off-handedly run for mayor as SK.
Again, making an analysis to go with your clues helps your argument, and let's you see if this person really is non-town. Even small FoS things like inactivity and discussing something that won't go anywhere become fairly damning in the presence of clues.
I'll try to give Nemesis a shot, but RoL wasn't talking out of his ass when he said 2-3 players shouldn't be doing everything. Though I think he said it just to say something.
The Qatol clue was meant to be found immediately. The first clues should hint at parts of profiles, but be fairly general. If you find a lot of clues on the same person, but they are all on different parts of his profile, it gives a greater chance that one of them is an actual clue.
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On January 28 2011 02:16 darmousseh wrote:I'm still really bothered with the quote from the story Show nested quote +The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. I feel like that is probably a clue, but I can't find anything in any profile. Also theres a bunch of stuff about noises. Anyone else have any luck? Also Show nested quote + Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there probably has some clue in it, but again no luck. Other than that, we have like 33 hours until night. I'll try to see if these clues correspond to anything.
![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/76537.png?1295475082)
Fits don't it?
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On January 28 2011 02:41 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2011 02:16 darmousseh wrote:I'm still really bothered with the quote from the story The noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. I feel like that is probably a clue, but I can't find anything in any profile. Also theres a bunch of stuff about noises. Anyone else have any luck? Also Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there probably has some clue in it, but again no luck. Other than that, we have like 33 hours until night. I'll try to see if these clues correspond to anything. Fits don't it?
hahahahahaha, there you go. BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Not exactly a scream, but annoying none the less. So I guess me and kita(moon picture) are the closest suspects other than nemesis and RoL.
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I've had my theories for a while now, but I didn't want to send the town off on a pointless discussion. In light of recent events, however, i think that it may help differentiate the story from the clues. What follows is what I believe to be the story that we are living out:
+ Show Spoiler [Night 0] +On January 23 2011 11:00 Node wrote:Night 0 “Eureka!” Node exclaimed. “Igor! Look at this!” “My name is LSB...” “Whatever” Node replied, “Igor! I created a monster!” “It’s just a vial of black liquid. Sure doesn't seem that monstrous...” “Its not any ordinary liquid! Come, take a sip!” “That seems like a startlingly bad idea.” LSB cautiously replied. “Do you want to be paid or not?” Grudgingly, LSB took what barely qualified as a sip. Almost as soon as the dribble of fluid passed his lips, he collapsed onto the floor, limbs twitching. Minutes later he awoke to a glint of steel inches from his face. “What... hey... what are you doing with that knife???” LSB screamed. “Don’t worry, I’m just going to prick you to... uhh... test your blood.” Node coolly replied. And out the blood flew. Black as night, black as blindfolds, black as... blood. The experiment was a success.
Later, while cleaning up his latest dispensable assistant, Node heard the thumping of loud music from outside his laboratory. “...the hell? That sounds like... Spoon?” I’m writing this to you in reverseSuddenly a man strolled into the room carrying a stereo. “Imbecile! What are you doing in here?!” Node cowered against his precious machines and experiments. Someone better call a hearse“We have need of your research. We will be taking it.” Node started screaming. “Oh, hush.” And the man turned up the stereo. Now the light bulb’s gone onThe man grabbed the vial from the hands of the scientist and uncorked it. I’m not standing hereHe wrapped his palm around Node’s throat, letting only gurgling, gasping sounds of struggle escape. The man tipped the vial, and a single drop of the viscous fluid fell into its creator’s mouth. And there’s nothing thereAs the scientist’s struggle decreased, the intruder pulled a small, serrated switchblade from his pocket. He pressed it against Node’s throat and sawed. I've seen it in your eyesThe results were consistent. The man stepped back, and studied the results of his work. He grinned. “Perfect.” I can see you blankly stare
The police arrived the next morning. Amidst the caution tape and penlights, were the two scientists. LSB and Node were bound with duct tape, throats slit. The strangest expression on their faces. A mad, wide grin. The blood, coursing from their necks to the floor, ran jet black... Node is dead.
LSB is dead.
??? the Assassin is missing.
This is the intro to our story, the "before we arrived" scene, appropriately placed before we could start doing much. In it the scientist Node creates a black liquid which he calls "a monster".
Known effects of the liquid:
"LSB took what barely qualified as a sip" It takes a very small amount to do it's work.
"he collapsed onto the floor, limbs twitching." It causes a temporary loss of control to motor functions.
"Minutes later he awoke" Knocks the victim out for a few minutes, after which he seems to be just fine.
"And out the blood flew. Black as night," Causes the blood to turn black.
+ Show Spoiler [Day 1] +On January 24 2011 11:01 Node wrote:Day 1 Cue the clash of lightning. Play the roar of thunder. And make sure there is a shower of rain. It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening. I should explain.
Oh, how I've tried to get you out of my head. We all first met at a party in Florida. A ‘pre-sailing’ party as they said. We all applied to start a colony on an unnamed island in the Caribbeans. We were going to be heroes, the founders of a city, the explorers of the modern age. And I lied, broken words I said. As the host brought around the drinks, as the the crowd crescendos with laughter, as the band broke out into another song... I felt something was wrong. Did the lights in the ceiling just black out? Are those black shapes in the alcove bats? Is that shadow in the corner a black cat? Never thought I'd walk on this street again. I should have known that this voyaged was cursed with bad luck from the start. Standing where it all began.
A piercing scream woke us up. Where am I? What’s happening? The last thing I remember... our glasses raised, filled with dark red wine, the color of blood... a toast, a sip... A scuffle and gun shots snapped me to the present. We dove, crawled, or pulled ourselves to the nearest cover. A gurgling, gory, throaty sound forced me to see what was happening. It was outside, our ship’s nurse Korynne was on the ground, hand clutching her slit throat, black blood gurgling onto the ground. Behind her, a man dressed completely in black, knife clutched in his hand, a hole in his head. Our captain, Foolishness stowed away his gun, fell to his knees and clutched the nurse’s head. I listened as in between sobs he choked out what happened “The man... the man was following the nurse. I... You must avenge her death. He is not alone... I will be their next target. They will come after me next and… Mi Dio!” + Show Spoiler +I picked up the dropped switchblade, pressed it to the captains throat, and sawed.
+ Show Spoiler [Clues in the Night 0 post] +Note, this was the clue in the story LSB and Node were bound with duct tape This points to Qatol. "Guns make you stupid. Better to fight your wars with duct tape. Duct tape makes you smart."
-Burn Notice This is in Qatol’s profile. In addition. There was a red herring in this story “...the hell? That sounds like... Spoon?” Spoon is an indie rock band. It says in Node’s profile that he listens to indie rock. Therefore, the clue points to him. There will not be many intentional red herrings, but as the stories become more detailed, there may be some. For example the intruder pulled a small, serrated switchblade from his pocket. He pressed it against Node’s throat and sawed Was not an intentional red herring, but it could possibly pointed to someone. These clues are a bit easier than the ones that will be found in normal day posts. There are no clues in this spoiler
Day one is where we come in. We apparently signed up for this colonization mission, and were treated to a party. The host brings around the drinks, and then the person in the story starts seeing things, black things, he knows something is wrong. I believe that the host of the party is part of the same group of people who sent the assassin to get Node's black liquid, and he put some of that liquid in the drinks. It only takes a small amount, so it wouldn't be hard to mask in another drink, and it's right after this that the person in the story starts seeing things.
Further evidence that everyone has been exposed to this liquid is shown in that the Korynne and Qatol both had black blood. It doesn't say what color Foolishness's blood was, but I think that it's safe to assume that he has it too. (Of special note here: Qatol was the one who stole it, and is presumably aligned with the host of the party. This would indicate that the liquid has some desirable effects, or that Qatol was betrayed by his own people.)
+ Show Spoiler [Night 1] +On January 26 2011 11:07 Node wrote:Night 1 Sometimes I get overchargedAnd as the voices roared, as the crowd cheered, Kavdragon stood up on stage and flashed the peace sign. That's when you see sparks“I understand that times are hard. I understand that you are afraid. But follow my lead, and I will guide us through. For my first act as mayor... allow me to welcome my two closest friends and compatriots as my protectors. I entrust my life to these individuals.” And he summoned to the stage GMarshal and Beneather. You ask me where the hell I'm going“For my second act as mayor...” As the jaws gnashed, as the mob fought, GMarshal and Beneather brought up the struggling OriginalName and held him down while Kavdragon tied the metal noose around his head. And hung him. At a thousand feet per secondIron choking, biting, hurting. Black blood dripped out, dancing onto the floor below. Some cheered. Others hung their head. There would be no resolution. The conflict was far from over. We don’t know much. But we do know that there will be an end. We don’t know what form it will take. But there will be blood. Hey man, slow downOriginalName is dead.Slow downThere are no clues in this post.
Night 1 has started! You have 24 hrs to decide on night actions. Be sure to send any night actions to both Node and LSB.
This day post doesn't add too much other than to confirm that we made it to the island, and decided to elect someone to lead us. (Also, more confirmation that everyone now has black blood)
+ Show Spoiler [day 2] +On January 27 2011 11:01 Node wrote:Day 2 Some nights I thirst for real bloodEvery city has its dark place, the area that no one in their right mind will go. Ours is the forest, the woods that loom in the center. Away from the campfire, away from the tents, away from the city. The thick, ancient trunks loom, the undisturbed bark hard as stone, the tangled roots cloying at uncareful limbs. No one knows what happens there, and certainly no one would venture there in the night. But tonight, the forest stirs. Its solitude is intruded upon. For real knivesThe noises inside are a mystery. The scampering in the bush, a deer? That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make. For real criesAnd there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... And then the flash of steel from real gunsMeapak_Ziph falls with a grunt to the ground, his face contorts in surprise, horror, and pain, and then... silence. Everything is still but for the fountain of black blood sprouting from his body. The shadow is gone. Meapak_Ziph dies alone. In real lifeAnd then another persons enters the clearing. He is careful, disturbing nothing, as quiet as the trees surrounding him. A coward, he hid in the shadows witnessing it all, doing nothing. He gazes down at the body of Meapak, the drying blood staining his feet. He shudders, and continues on. Really fills my mindI followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. How fitting. You can’t hideI could get used to this black blood. TheAldo has died.Meapak_Ziph has died.Night 1 has ended. Day 2 has begun! The lynch has been opened to the general vote. At the end of the day, someone will be hung...
This would imply that we have set up our small city on the beaches of the the island, and states that there is something very wrong about the woods in the middle of the island. I'm imagining LOST here.
A few mysteries that are left to solve: What other effect(s) does the black liquid have? What is the real goal of sending 31 people to an island, infected by this virus? In normal games it is a common theme that the blood runs an alignment matching color. Is the virus what causes people to not flip? If so, is there a way to cure it?
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On January 28 2011 03:16 Kavdragon wrote:
A few mysteries that are left to solve: What other effect(s) does the black liquid have? What is the real goal of sending 31 people to an island, infected by this virus? In normal games it is a common theme that the blood runs an alignment matching color. Is the virus what causes people to not flip? If so, is there a way to cure it?
I think it might be a riff off the fact that since people do not flip, their names are turning up black in the mod posts, hence the "black" blood?
Or, since a lot of the posts are from the perspective of the SK, maybe it's a reference to his status as a 3rd party character?
I don't think the island or the virus really have any effect beyond adding backstory, though.
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From wiki answers
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_does_black_blood_mean
Answer
The meaning behind darker blood varies depending on where the blood is coming from: Darker blood from menstruation could mean that the blood is old because periods are not regular. Dark blood from your veins could mean something like you have too much iron in your blood. Veinous blood as well as fresh menstrual blood should always be bright to deep red, not burgundy or black. If blood is dark you should have it checked out by a doctor.
hahahaha, thats the first thing I found when searching google.
The other is a vampire anime.
I think it's probably a very obscure or made up story.
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Nemesis
# of Posts: 19
Not inactive, but definitely not one of the most active
Analysis
On January 23 2011 11:40 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 23 2011 11:39 Kavdragon wrote:On January 23 2011 11:33 Nemesis wrote:
You say that there are clues in the day post, but it does not point to any current mafia, so what does it point to then?
Alright, it's time to get some activity going in here. What do you guys think about lynching inactives in the first day?
Although, there is only a slim chance of us catching mafia, it would encourage people to post more and the more that mafia post, the greater the chance that they will slip up. Lynching inactives is a tactic to start a discussion. I don't think that we will need to do this, because we will have clues to look at, and a mayor to elect. That should be starter enough to get the information we need to lynch scum. No, I am not doing this only to start discussion. I want to encourage activity and make sure that no one lurks in this game.
Good sentiments but not much substance.
On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote:
Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon?
Good sentiments but not much substance.
On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote:
Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Me Kavdragon, and DrH iirc. Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor?
Wants another candidate, apparently. Perhaps I can detach him from RoL?
On January 24 2011 13:28 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 24 2011 13:24 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On January 24 2011 13:12 Nemesis wrote:On January 24 2011 13:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:On January 24 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote:
Let's get on to mayor discussion, who are our current candidates besides kavdragon? Me Kavdragon, and DrH iirc. Hmm so far I don't really like any of the candidates. RoL didn't bring much of a platform. DrH, uggh how many times has he lead us astray us town leader? Kavdragon, I don't really like the things he is advocating for. Anyone else want to run for mayor? Once. I was only scum mayor once and it was my first game of my mafia about a year ago. I am not talking about you as a mayor, I mean as a town leader in general. I mean take a look at Salem mafia. I think that you are still a better candidate than kavdragon though, and if no one else steps up I will vote for you. And Almost 1500 post, not sure if I can do any long post for my 1500th post as we have only gotten started, but don't expect me to post for a while.
Bad blood with Dr. H but may put his vote on.
On January 24 2011 13:34 Nemesis wrote:
Ok, this is my last post for a while, the thing that bothers me about your campaign is you hold the mayor as an extremely important role that making the mayor survive is more important than killing scum.
It would be well worth it if you can trade the mayor for 1 scum, it would be even better if you can trade for 2 but that's highly unlikely.
Also, making greens volunteer to be bodyguard is such an ANTI-TOWN PLAN. It would let mafia be able to narrow down who is blue from those who did not volunteer.
Well I'm off for tonight.
Agree with green volunteering (though you would just need two, but it would be better to get one vet claim instead) but I disagree with the mayor part. I'm not sure I need to reiterate my reasons why.
On January 25 2011 08:26 Nemesis wrote:We stilil have plenty of time to change votes. Woot, looks like RoL is now seriously running  RoL for mayor everyone! And I seriously don't want to have kavdragon for mayor. He is pushing for a scummy plan right from the beginning with the bodyguard volunteering. It has already been covered by multiple people why that is a bad idea. Even if only 4 people volunteered, that still narrows down the list of blues. And there is still the same chance of picking mafia as before(mafia can just volunteer). There is no advantage to town whatsover to volunteering bodyguard.
I suppose now that Dr. H went out, RoL is the next best choice. Not convinced it connects the two of them if we are looking at Nemesis' last posts.
On January 25 2011 13:02 Nemesis wrote:
It's day 1, and I would rather not talk about clues. Clues are rather vague until we get the hang of it. It is just derailing the thread here. We should talk about the mayoral elections and what they plan to do?
That is who are you going to lynch/plans whatever.
and RoL since you are back, how are you planning on choosing your bodyguard, and who are you going to lynch first day?
Understandable, shows us why he doesnt want Kav, who is lynching based on clues and feels they are very vague atm. Doesn't give an alternate plan though.
On January 25 2011 13:09 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:01 Kavdragon wrote:
A word on policy: Should the Mason contact the mayor night one? This would ensure that masons survive the night, though it's unlikely that the mason, and his convertee are both killed. Other than that, the mayor would then be able to entrust any other information with the original mason. (For instance, my role, any information on blues I have, and vise versa.)
Note that while the Mason would be a confirmed townie, the mayor would not be confirmed. Thus the flow of information should only go to the mason, who should not pass it to anyone else unless extreme conditions warrant it. Perhaps with time, the mayor will build enough trust that he can be entrusted with information that the mason has, but I'm not going to assume that.
This seems the best plan to me, but I'm looking at it from the mayor's position. Anyone have any problems with this? I'm sorry but this just sounds bad(once again). You are basically putting everything into the hands of the mayor. It is not likely that mafia will find masons during the first day. The disadvantages far outweights the advantages of this plan.
Not a bad idea, I'd call it more neutral. Mason should be recruiting likely blues and confirming himself to them, and when he has found one, he should recruit a speaker, and the mayor would usually be a good choice considering he was voted that position by town, so he is already a trustworthy source. In fact, I'm not sure if we should trust other claims other then from the mayor, because it is too simple to falseclaim.
Nemesis again doesn't give a better alternate, which he should.
On January 25 2011 13:24 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 13:15 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Kav, my entire platform is not to put all your eggs in one potentially scum basket. By revolving everything around the mayor you are dooming the town. Stop with the stupidity.
I am leaning towards Amber[LighT] for my Day 1 lynch. Why Amber[Light]? kitaman, I would rather not depend on clues over post analysis. And fine, if you think the clue leads to him, and want him lynched for the first day. Don't you already have kavdragon's support? Why discuss it further if kav has already decided to lynch him?
Again with anti-clue debate, bothers me that he isn't generating other discussion himself.
On January 26 2011 09:26 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 09:24 bumatlarge wrote:
Ok then, Stupid idea. Crossing my fingers on Kav. Mostly my fault for not being here for a bit. Or you can always vote RoL
>_> and I did. The thing to note is he did not comment on what I had said, but I suppose he thought he would be just "chiming in" on how bad my RNG plan was. Ugh.
On January 26 2011 09:26 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 09:24 bumatlarge wrote:
Ok then, Stupid idea. Crossing my fingers on Kav. Mostly my fault for not being here for a bit. Or you can always vote RoL
Gotta support your reasons mate.
On January 26 2011 20:57 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 26 2011 14:33 LunarDestiny wrote:
But if Kav tells town about how many SK are there, it will help mafia as well.
If Kav only checks mafia every night, then it will only benefit town and SK. But I doubt SK threatens town more than mafia threatens town. And how will that help mafia as well? Mafia can already guess the number of SK's from the # of KP per night.
Truth.
On January 26 2011 21:02 Nemesis wrote:
Kav, I wouldn't judge bum yet as scum. The way he is appearing to me is more of an impulsive townie as in he doesn't think before he post, and then realizes that what he was suggesting was bad.
Still I would like to see his response.
Aw, he will always be town in my heart. Doesn't mean he is though, red like to cut the strings to other people fairly quickly if they see an outcome ahead of time. If I got lynched, and then the next day we find mafia umbers are the same, nemesis can say itoldyaso.
On January 27 2011 14:46 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 27 2011 14:16 BrownBear wrote:If anyone took a hit, now would be your time to claim. Also, right now I think the most obvious clue was pointed out already by LD: On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote:Some nights I thirst for real blood
For real knives
For real cries
And then the flash of steel from real guns
In real life
Really fills my mind
You can’t hideNemesisArcher's Reality Marble: Reality Marble"I am the bone of my sword.
Steel is my body, and fire is my blood.
I have created over a thousand blades.
Unknown to death.
Nor known to life.
Have withstood pain to create many weapons.
Yet, these hands will never hold anything.
So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'." That's a pretty damning point directly to Nemesis. I do agree that we shouldn't lynch based purely off of clues though. Right now, who I'm thinking of voting for is either Nem or bum. I have voted for Nemesis for the time being, but that is definitely open to change depending on the situation. sigh, do I even have to point out why this analysis is crap? Fine, I guess I will. First of all, the clues are divided into two parts: the two seperate deaths. That means that the clues in the first night points to two different people. Now if you look at the statements that he took from the clues, those are spread out all over the place in the day post. They can be found in both deaths. So unless you are saying that both clues point to me, then that part of your clue analysis is crap. Second of all, this one is just a bit of speculation on how clues work, but the italicized parts and the bold parts feel a bit like red herring. If you look at Night 0's clue, none of the actual clues are found within the italicized parts. Third of all, that kind of feels forced. Well I don't necessarily blame you since you probably don't really understand what my quote is from, and what a reality marble is. A reality marble is magic that forces the reality in your mind to come to life in the real world. So using real as a clue to point to me is rather farfetched. And I just had to facepalm when you bolded really. That just kind of seems too forced. To people doing clue analysis, I would suggest to take a look at Night 0's clues. Since there are a lot of crap analysis going on right now. The clues from night 0 are the "duct tape" which was straight from Qatol's quote. The clues are pretty straightforward. Don't try and look for things which might be related to something in people's profile. For example, someone has a picture of a character from a movie. Then there was something in the clue that could be related to that movie but to a different character in the movie. Mods won't go that far to make the clues as vague as possible. Remember that the clue is directly related to the Profile, not second-hand relation. I don't really have time to delve hardcore into this day's clue right now, but let me just give you what I could find in a short amount of time. Show nested quote +And there in the clearing, in the moonlight, Meapak_Ziph runs at full speed, jumping over roots, snapping aside branches. And close behind him a black shape, only a blur in the darkness, gaining, about to grab, only a hand-length away... From Gmarshal's profile ![[image loading]](http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/62033.jpg?1295165578) As for the second kill, all I could find so far was this: Show nested quote +I followed TheAldo. And as I ran my knife across his throat, no one was there to help him. From Kitaman's Profile: "Keeper Yes, my lord; But yet I cannot help you." "Surveyor 'If,' quoth he, 'I for this had been committed, As, to the Tower, I thought, I would have play'd The part my father meant to act upon The usurper Richard; who, being at Salisbury, Made suit to come in's presence; which if granted, As he made semblance of his duty, would Have put his knife to him.'" Now obviously I haven't read all of kitaman's profile so I'm not really sure if I'm taking those out of context. I'll read it when I have the time, but if someone who knows the story there can help me if anything could be related to the clues, I would appreciate it. And of course lynching based on clues alone would be stupid unless the clues are pretty damning, so I will hold out on my vote for now.
Defends himself. Even though it points to two different parts, it still makes it more likely then if there was one clue. One could be misleading, while the other true. It would be better to find a clue in both parts though. Mentions Qatols clue, which RoL did as well. Qatol's clue was meant to be found, while the clues the first few days are purposefully vague and inconclusive. That's why I agree with him that clues not to be a selling point at first.
Finally some clue analysis, but only when he is under pressure.
Overall, we see his history hasn't done Nemesis any favors.
Clues
I am just going to use what Lunar has found without making it my own. We need more people to contribute to this.
On January 27 2011 11:34 LunarDestiny wrote:Some nights I thirst for real blood
For real knives
For real cries
And then the flash of steel from real guns
In real life
Really fills my mind
You can’t hideNemesisArcher's Reality Marble: Reality Marble"I am the bone of my sword.
Steel is my body, and fire is my blood.
I have created over a thousand blades.
Unknown to death.
Nor known to life.
Have withstood pain to create many weapons.
Yet, these hands will never hold anything.
So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'."
On January 27 2011 11:41 LunarDestiny wrote:
Most clues of Nemesis
Some nights I thirst for real blood
And then the flash of steel from real guns
"I am the bone of my sword.
Steel is my body, and fire is my blood.
I have created over a thousand blades.
Unknown to death.
Nor known to life.
Have withstood pain to create many weapons.
Yet, these hands will never hold anything.
So as I pray, 'Unlimited Blade Works'."
And we should attempt to fit in things from the first day as well.
Where am I? What’s happening? The last thing I remember... our glasses raised, filled with dark red wine, the color of blood... a toast, a sip...
Fairly weak, as we assume Nemsis' pic is a vampire, and the bloded black words don't help the "DarkFlameNightHunter" either.
Our captain, Foolishness stowed away his gun, fell to his knees and clutched the nurse’s head. I listened as in between sobs he choked out what happened
“The man... the man was following the nurse. I... You must avenge her death. He is not alone... I will be their next target. They will come after me next and… Mi Dio!”
I picked up the dropped switchblade, pressed it to the captains throat, and sawed.
"What do you do when there is an evil you cannot defeat by just means? Do you stain your hands with evil to destroy evil, or do you remain steadfastly just and righteous even if it means surrendering to evil?In my case, I commit evil to destroy the greater evil!" Lelouch Lamperouge
The nearest thing, though the post could mean other things. For this, the narrator must be good and he had to believe the captain killed Korynne. You could argue that the captain is good and the narrator was evil all along. But why would it start out that the narrator is talking about the voyage as cursed? Perhaps he knew it would be cursed because of what he would have to do. Or it's what he figured out. Still weak I believe.
Summary
ANALYSIS
Lurking player who poses a lot of questions and obviously has an opinion about things but doesn't go into much detail about why he has them.
INFORMATION
Did not like the candidates. Eventually picked RoL over Kav. I do not believe Nemesis and RoL are both red, but it is very possible. No other info on him.
CLUES
First day clues I found feel very weak, and I would dismiss them initially. Second day clues LD found are much stronger, and can give the first clues more solid ground to base on.
I believe Nemesis is an SK. It would still make sense if he was mafia.
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On January 27 2011 15:21 Coagulation wrote:
i dont like not knowing what roles people are when they die
makes it 100x harder for town. i dont see how this could be balanced fairly.
I would think it's the clues that help balance it out a bit, plus maybe we get more blues or something
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Again, i would encourage everyone to take a look at Nemesis' play in Mini Maifa IV, and Merc mafia.
His play in general is more like Merc mafia (town) than Mini IV (Mafia). He looks scummy to me now, but he looked scummy to me in Merc too. While it's certainly possible that he's just playing a different style of scum, this is a point in his favor.
RoL's play is more and more reminding me of Merc maifa (mafia) however, and I'm going to put my vote for him. As much as I'm suspicious of Bum, his analysis echoes my concerns.
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Well, I got a bit more time to check out the thread. I don't like the page-long analysis on one individual.
I mean, they would go great in mid-late game when you have like 50-60 posts to choose from and you pick the most incriminating ones, but if you analyze ALL the posts, then you're bound to find a bit of scum in everyone, but nothing very conclusive.
That's my opinion on RoL's case at least.
So I went back and looked at the clues.
Needless too say, nothing obvious this time, but the second person showing up @ Meapak's murder site got me thinking.
If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first?[/b]
I think it's important to know, because if it happened during the first night, it's bound to happen again.
Also, I am assuming that if mafia uses 2kp on same target, we will have indications towards two assassins as well, and information that they worked as a team, correct? (that's how it was in the first game of mafia I played).
Also, I've been toying with an idea, I want to hear what the town thinks.
Since we don't have information about who's what, even after they die, DTs are far more important in this game.
So, I think that it's important that DTs play well.
Since it's pretty safe to assume that Mafia has only 2kp (I'm thinking that that extra person was at best another SK, and that SiN is not lying, don't see WHY he would), then it's kind-of hard to kill a DT if town stacks medics upon them.
That being said, I think DTs who find a red or sk, should immediately come up with it (preferably in a town circle, but since that's less likely, then to town). If we have at least two medics then it would take 3kps to kill DT, and even if they do stack them upon him, then it's probably worth losing 1 dt for 1 red.
I'm saying this because if a DT finds someone important, and dies, we won't even know if he had any solid reason to push for whoever he was pushing in the thread.
So, the basic idea is that we CAN'T rely purely on census this game. We need some kind of strong circle or something, to make sure that DTs can cooperate fully.
That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.
b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.
c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town.
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With no PMs in the game that would require Mason to recruit SiNquity and a DT. Which would require DT claiming. Which would require 2 medics to keep the whole damn thing from falling apart.
It's doable but will require a gutsy dt assuming we have 2 medics.
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Scrap that. If the DT claims we don't need anything else except medic protection. And nobody knows how many of them we have.
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On January 28 2011 05:11 Jackal58 wrote:
Scrap that. If the DT claims we don't need anything else except medic protection. And nobody knows how many of them we have.
Well yes, that's why I believe that DT should only claim if they stumbled onto something important. (at the very LEAST to stop lynching a blue or something). So no claims unless it's wroth the risk.
And as for SiN in town circle, I don't think that's wise. Mafia will probably try to finish him off, and since he's most likely vet (and thus, not DT), he won't have much to bring to the table in a town circle (other than being the official spokesperson or something lol).
But I was just saying, at least we know we have ONE green.
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On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote:
If two people go for one person (Mafia and SK or Mafia/Vig or SK/Vig), do we get clues on both assassins, or just the one who got there first?
No comment.
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Okay, was a bit busy but now its time to dive in. I've got a spreadsheet up and running for clues so you guys can check it out. (Took wayyyy longer than I expected  )
As for today, some pretty good analysis coming out which is awesome.
Bum pointed this out earlier but it seems to have gone ignored:
+ Show Spoiler +
Clue:
Cue the clash of lightning.
Play the roar of thunder.
And make sure there is a shower of rain.
It was just a movie scene, just something from a scary film. A bad dream. This couldn’t be happening.
I should explain.
Mr.Zergling's Profile:
Favorite Movie scene:
Cue, play, movie scene
There's no earthly way of knowing
Which direction we are going.
There's no knowing where we're rowing
Or which way the river's flowing.
Is it raining?
Is it snowing?
Is a hurricane a blowing?
Thunder, lightning, rain
Not a speck of light is showing
so the danger must be growing.
Are the fires of hell a glowing?
Is the grisly reaper mowing?
Yes! The danger must be growing
Scary Film/Bad Dream
For the rowers keep on rowing.
And they're certainly not showing
any signs that they are slowing!
This ticks almost all of the boxes.
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First of all on the clues I found on Nemesis:
Since real is repeated through out the post, it is very likely to be a clue. So I search people's profiles to find any connection to it. That quote from Nemesis is from anime/game Fate/Stay Night. Unlimited Blade Works is the special move that Archer uses. And Unlimited Blade Works classify as a reality marble. This clue should be based on if you think real is a potential clue in the post.
Clue #2 is based on the two words (Blood and Steel) found in the same line in the quote which is also found in the post.
Clue #3 is the also a Flash fan quote which is found at the bottom of his profile.
I know Clue #1 is kind of iffy. Clue #2 and #3 are both word matching clues.
I find it interesting that all his clues that I pointed out are italicized words. It is very possible that it is the theme of the clues pointing towards Nemesis.\
It should be stated that the clues are spread out the post and they didn't point to a specific victim. And the mod also said that clue
On January 25 2011 12:40 LSB wrote:
All right. After a bit of reexaming of how the clues are going, I'll say these things. Please ignore all other posts.
Definitive Clues Post
Clues point to people with KP. This means Mafia, SK, and Vig.
Due to fairness. We cannot say much about day 1, besides the fact that there are clues. Plural.
For future days, for every kill that will occur there will be a clue pointing to the killer.
This is what's bothering me. "A clue." not "clues." And LSB even pointed out that day 1 posts got "clues. Plural." So LSB is very specific on what he is trying to say. Therefore the clues on Nemesis are fairly weak. But Nemesis behavior is very questionable. More on that later.
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On January 28 2011 04:51 CubEdIn wrote:
That being said, I am 90% sure that SiNquity is TOWN.
Reasoning: He claimed he was hit.
Scenarios:
a) He is mafia.
He would only claim he was hit if he was mafia in order to influence what the town thinks about mafia KP. This doesn't make much sense, since mafia wouldn't know about SK kp anyway. And even if they do manage to make town believe mafia has one more kp than they do, what good does it do? It's better (imo) for mafia to try to fake LESS kp not more.
b) He is SK
Claiming he was hit would be the dumbest thing to do in this scenario. If you are informed you took a hit, then you can just lay low and see if Mafia keeps trying to kill you (absorb KPs). If you see someone try to out you, then you know that that someone is most likely mafia (and pissed that he can't kill you), so you just take him out the next night. Town won't even know who was the mafia that died anyway.
By saying "oh, I've been hit" it only puts you in the spotlight for the town. If you don't die later on, they'll wonder why (and assume you are SK, or red). You don't need medics, you just need to not-get-lynched, and that's best done by laying low. So he's most likely not SK either.
c) He is town
This makes most sense. Since he "took a hit" but didn't die, most chances are that he's vet. I don't want him to claim or anything, and I don't want doctors that might have been on him claim either. It's good that you did protect him, and he may be a nice target for protection later on.
The only downside to this is that he should have been silent about this and see if someone tries to pull something from him, thus revealing themselves, but since it's out there already, we can safely assume that we have one confirmed town.
While I agree with you that SiNquity is not SK, I don't agree that a hit claim makes him town.
He claimed to be hit, even if he is mafia, nothing can be used against him. Not even a counter claim can prove that he is lying. There's no disbenefit of claiming to be hit as mafia in this setup.
While it is also likely that he is indeed town, he claimed to be hit to provided more information.
The only thing I can take out of his claim is that if he die the subsequent, that he is very likely to be telling the truth and gives out more information on mafia's KP.
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The problem with DT claiming in this situation is that we have nothing to check him by. If he says someone is mafia, there's no way we can tell for sure.
Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup.
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On January 28 2011 07:16 Kavdragon wrote:
The problem with DT claiming in this situation is that we have nothing to check him by. If he says someone is mafia, there's no way we can tell for sure.
Also, we don't know if we have more than one medic in this setup.
That's actually a good point. However, using logic we should be able to deduce at least a decent guess as to how many blues we have. For example, a rule of thumb with most games played is to give town 1 fewer medics than there are KP. Assuming SIN is telling the truth, we have 3 KP in this setup (Mafia probably has 2, SK has 1), so logically, given that knowledge as well as the number of players in the game, we should have 2 medics.
Problem is, we don't know how many of them have died yet. For all we know, Meapak and TheAldo were both our medics (very unlikely, I know, but still.)
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EPT![[image loading]](http://www.meer.org/ebook/albatross-laboratory-2a.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://www.art-prints-on-demand.com/kunst/karl_eduard_ferdinand_blechen/stormy_sea_lighthouse.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/c4a9o.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3284/2767438546_4f50c69507.jpg)
