EPTthank the heavens, someone else sees it.
Insane Mafia 2 - Page 39
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annul
United States2841 Posts
thank the heavens, someone else sees it. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:39 annul wrote: holy fucking shit will ANYONE, a single person, in the entire game, challenge my MATHEMATICAL analysis of the item game and why it is beneficial to give mayorship to an item game player? i dont care if you think i am a scum, because my MATH is sound. if im scum, nominate someone else. an item game player needs to be mayor. Item game: -Town mayor good -Mafia mayor bad -3rd P mayor bad 33% chance of good Actual game: -Town mayor good -Blue mayor good -Mafia mayor bad -3rd P mayor bad 50% chance of good Non-item game is better See how pointless arguing maths is? You can't just reduce a game to stats, you have to take meta into account. | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:39 annul wrote: holy fucking shit will ANYONE, a single person, in the entire game, challenge my MATHEMATICAL analysis of the item game and why it is beneficial to give mayorship to an item game player? i dont care if you think i am a scum, because my MATH is sound. if im scum, nominate someone else. an item game player needs to be mayor. this is exactly why i was urging everyone to vote jackal. the key to this game is the item game players. elect jackal | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
are you just trolling or do you seriously think that its 50% chance for a "good" outcome in the actual game? | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
I'm just pretty sure you're not town.  | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:43 Coagulation wrote: this is exactly why i was urging everyone to vote jackal. the key to this game is the item game players. elect jackal you know, i have only been arguing this for like 20 hours by now. dont steal my thunder lol | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
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Rean
Netherlands808 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:42 deconduo wrote: Item game: -Town mayor good -Mafia mayor bad -3rd P mayor bad 33% chance of good Actual game: -Town mayor good -Blue mayor good -Mafia mayor bad -3rd P mayor bad 50% chance of good Non-item game is better See how pointless arguing maths is? You can't just reduce a game to stats, you have to take meta into account. lol. it's 20 pro-town against 10 scum, 33% chance | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
if we can agree to this, now those of us IN ITEM GAME should be able to campaign without interference. if you think i am scum and want me to not get the mayorship, or if you think im just a bad who will waste the job, okay fine, dont vote for me. but at least frame it in that way. | ||
GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:36 Coagulation wrote: i have a feeling people in the item game are gonna be first to be night hit. so medics should protect the most pro town players there. namely me. I'm going to disagree, fo a bunch of reasons 1.) no group can afford to take out everyone in the item game but their player as he instantly is revealed (e.g. if the mafia teams takes out all the greens and hangs the 3rd party well, who the mafia is becomes evident) 2.) Why? If they hit in the game they might hit a player who's items have been stolen or who has a crappy item, by hitting the town they have a better chance of getting a blue or a good power. 3.) Medics should use their saves on the most protown players. period. whether in the item game or out of it. Also why are we discussion blue's actions Night 0? the night is still 48+ hours away and we need to worry about other issues. | ||
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tnkted
United States1359 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:37 Tackster wrote: tnkted am i misunderstanding or are you claiming you know your role (as opposed to alignment)? What are you talking about? I posted a quote where i replied to somebody who claimed to know their role. I don't know what my role is yet, I'm just an townie, minding my own business. | ||
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CubEdIn
Romania5359 Posts
100% > all! | ||
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Jackal58
United States4264 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:46 GMarshal wrote: I'm going to disagree, fo a bunch of reasons 1.) no group can afford to take out everyone in the item game but their player as he instantly is revealed (e.g. if the mafia teams takes out all the greens and hangs the 3rd party well, who the mafia is becomes evident) 2.) Why? If they hit in the game they might hit a player who's items have been stolen or who has a crappy item, by hitting the town they have a better chance of getting a blue or a good power. 3.) Medics should use their saves on the most protown players. period. whether in the item game or out of it. Also why are we discussion blue's actions Night 0? the night is still 48+ hours away and we need to worry about other issues. Green can afford to. Why don't you love green Gman???? | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:46 annul wrote: now that i have several people conceding my MATH is sound, can we all agree that an item game player should get the mayorship? therefore, can we stop sucking bum off? if we can agree to this, now those of us IN ITEM GAME should be able to campaign without interference. if you think i am scum and want me to not get the mayorship, or if you think im just a bad who will waste the job, okay fine, dont vote for me. but at least frame it in that way. Yeah, I'll take your math over an almost certian blue who needs the protection /sarcasm Seriously you seem to be so concerned with the math that you fail to see the logic. Personaly I dont think theres a single player in the item game I would seriously consider giving the mayorship to anyway. (no offense to anyone) Can you seriously not see why bum is the person who should get the mayorship unless the mafia grows some balls and counterclaims? (or the blues if bum is mafia [doubtful]) | ||
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Coagulation
United States9633 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:46 GMarshal wrote: I'm going to disagree, fo a bunch of reasons 1.) no group can afford to take out everyone in the item game but their player as he instantly is revealed (e.g. if the mafia teams takes out all the greens and hangs the 3rd party well, who the mafia is becomes evident) This is silly hey will have no problem sacraficing a player to gain all items for their team. 2.) Why? If they hit in the game they might hit a player who's items have been stolen or who has a crappy item, by hitting the town they have a better chance of getting a blue or a good power. i have talked to LSB a little about the items not much but enough to know the items are worth far more than blue roles. definitly worth more than any unsure blue snipes 3.) Medics should use their saves on the most protown players. period. whether in the item game or out of it. Also why are we discussion blue's actions Night 0? the night is still 48+ hours away and we need to worry about other issues. | ||
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deconduo
Ireland4122 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:44 annul wrote: what? are you just trolling or do you seriously think that its 50% chance for a "good" outcome in the actual game? No, that wasn't a serious analysis. I was merely pointing out that I too can pull figures from my ass and say the maths are sound if they add up. By electing a town mayor from the item game you do increase the chance of town winning it. That is obvious, but your other arguments are terrible. -Electing mafia as mayor essentially is an autoloss in that case -Electing a black is bad too. People are less inclined to lynch a mayor unless there is a lot more evidence against them, so it will increase his survivability. Finally, and this is the big bit, we give up having a 100% clear mayor with a circle behind him. | ||
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:49 Jackal58 wrote: Green can afford to. Why don't you love green Gman???? I was considering groups with night kills, you know seeing as we were talking about medics? (they seem to have a tough time saving people from angry mobs, go figure) of course its in the towns best interest to kill the scum in the group to get 4 cleared townies with items, but those kills should be based on analysis, not on a crapshoot basis. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:50 GMarshal wrote: Can you seriously not see why bum is the person who should get the mayorship unless the mafia grows some balls and counterclaims? (or the blues if bum is mafia [doubtful]) yes, i seriously can not see why bum should get the mayorship. that's only been my entire case all day | ||
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Mr. Wiggles
Canada5894 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:25 Mr. Wiggles wrote: I already considered this: By going for the blacks, you remove any vested interest they have in the item game. So what you are saying is you want to go for the black player, singled out from the two scum present, so that then the black team will try to snipe the mafia in the game? That doesn't make any sense at all, and you still haven't explained why you don't mention killing the red who is present in the item game as well, whom you were indeed aware of. So unless you want to rely on the third party killing the red after you remove any interest they have in the item game, what you say is illogical, or a slip. Town would be worried about killing the scum present in the game, mafia would be worried about killing the black first, who is immune to night kills, especially if they got a free attempt at a snipe like you would if you're elected mayor, killing the rest of the greens would be easy from there. So why are you so worried about the black, but not the red? On March 25 2011 08:31 annul wrote: "By going for the blacks, you remove any vested interest they have in the item game. So what you are saying is you want to go for the black player, singled out from the two scum present, so that then the black team will try to snipe the mafia in the game?" this is true. HOWEVER, if that happens, consider this: town, town, town, mayor town, red. what is the red going to do? red is now DISINCENTIVIZED to kill item game town at night. there will come a time when it is mayor town vs red. then the red cant actually do anything about it. oh hey we fingered the red, hes dead, we win item game. the red is going to have an incentive to leave the town alone, forcing town to implode and their only chance is to try to get town to lynch the mayor OR buy more time so the reds can take out the bodyguards. in either scenario, it puts the ball back in our court instead of the instant win on day 5 that black has now without item game town mayorship "So why are you so worried about the black, but not the red?" read above. "and you still haven't explained why you don't mention killing the red who is present in the item game as well" am i seriously just not communicating well enough, or does he have reading problems? like honestly, who else does not understand what i am talking about? even if you disagree with the logic, at least everyone else understands my argument, right? Ok, so my point still stands. You either have terrible logic, or you slipped. The exact same scenario happens if you kill the red day 1, too. In that scenario, it will just end up being: Mayor Town vs. Black, same results. Blacks are only bullet-proof, not lynch-proof, and the only people capable of killing reds outside of lynches are power town roles. I'm saying there's no difference between going after either scum party in the item game, after you said you wanted to specifically target blacks. Black only has an auto-win in the item game if you never lynch them, so do some analysis after, and hang them before they get to the end. Red is also a danger in the item game, I'd say even more so than the blacks because of their higher KP. I never mentioned anywhere about the different mayors possible in the item game, just your insistence on the blacks without any convincing reasoning. I'm leaning to saying you are Red. If you were a green player in the item game, you would be worried about lynching anti-town forces in the item game, not just blacks. You wouldn't be worried about black's bulletproof-ness either, because you can't rely on killing powers, you'd have to rely on lynches. If you were red however, you'd love to get the mayorship, so that you could be immune from getting killed by the blacks. You'd also love to have day 1 snipe against the blacks. And lastly, you'd have an easier time lynching the black in the game than he would have of lynching you. Your reactions aren't helping. | ||
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