Pick Your Poison Mafia - Page 25

On June 04 2012 06:08 Radfield wrote:
I'm fairly certain Toad is scum. Case incoming ~30-45. Hold on to your hats.

On June 04 2012 06:07 prplhz wrote:
@Radfield Requesting a paragraph or two about your opinion of talismania (that he's likely town).

Also I'd like to know why you preferred a potential vigilante killing me over risk.nuke last night, and what changed your opinion today.

On June 04 2012 06:12 Radfield wrote:



I reread your filter is what changed my mind.

There was something funny going on with your posts though, and you voted Navillus real quick after defending him for a bit. I think Kurumi wrote something that swayed me a bit as well. I'm really not sure why I was leaning scummy on you right there, I even had you written down as PROB TOWN in my notes. I could go back and reread and tell you my thought process, but I really don't feel like it right now, though your question is a valid one.

I also don't really feel like writing about talismania, though I will at a later date. Right now I want to build my case.

On June 04 2012 05:19 Radfield wrote:

[...]

From my vantage point:

Roleblocker
Navillus
talismania
toadesstern
radfield
risk.nuke
prplhz

All of a sudden this looks very easy. Even if I am wrong about 2 scum being in the roleblocker camp, I think we can all agree that there is at least one. It's possible I am wrong about prp or talismania, but I doubt it right now. Both their filters look solid. So that means one of risk.nuke or Toad is very very likely scum in my opinion. In fact, it's very possible(even likely) that both are scum.

To me right now that scum feels like Toad. As I mentioned I haven't re-filtered him yet, but I've had a slight scum read on him all game. Risk.nuke I'm pretty null right now, but I got an 'ok for now' feeling from his filter. He's not putting in much effort, but he has content despite that.

Anyways, that's not a case on Toad by any means, but I wanted to write that out. Back to the grind.

Sbrubbles, you mentioned that Hiropro preferred framer to godfather on D0, but I don't see it. Care to help me out?

On June 04 2012 07:09 talismania wrote:


This is almost exactly how I feel. Anyone who is not looking at the game through the lens of the d0 votes needs to do so.

There's a couple of assumptions to get to mafia having framer that should be stated though:

1) HiroPro is town. Therefore scum did not vote 1-1-1 and likely voted 2-1-0. A big assumption I suppose but as I wrote d1 I can't imagine that if he were scum his scumbuddies would have let him vote GF. Maybe if he's scum with Risk.nuke, who brought up the 1-1-1 thing but that's the only scenario I can see it in.

2) No one claiming being roleblocked means that mafia don't have a roleblocker - the assumption implicit there is that mafia wouldn't use their roleblocker against themselves, knowing that using it on town would give away how the votes played out. Or maybe they didn't use it at all. Would a mafia roleblocker have to use their power? I'm really iffy on this assumption. It depends on if the scum team was smart enough to realize that using the roleblocker would immediately point to two people on the framer list. I feel like they would be but who knows.


So - if there is a framer it's either

toad + risk.nuke
Radfield + prp

I was actually leaning towards toad + radfield earlier because of how buddy-buddy toad acted towards him but now it's clear that is unlikely to be the case, unless they think they need to bus for some reason I guess. Toad and prp can't be together because of the strength of the case toad is making, with the same caveat as with toad and radfield.

Radfield + prp is the "conspiracy theory" pair. To make that case you have to assume that radfield freely cast doubt on prp, even agreeing with prp being shot (although come to think of it I guess that if he was scum he would know that town didn't have a vig so scratch that), and then backed down later. To complete the conspiracy theory, add in zephirdd, whom rad and prp acted together to save by getting the navilus train rolling.

The main problem I can't get past with this pair is prp's play to outright claim "Oh my vote didn't count, btw" Is that really a super-clever scum excuse? I mean (1) having that idea is borderline genius and (2) actually following through with it is incredibly ballsy. Why risk that when you could just lay low amongst the 6 RB voters?

Toad + risk.nuke on the other hand has little to argue against it (there's not much to argue for it either I suppose - toad is as confusing and difficult to understand as he was to me pick your power. Risk-nuke has a lot less thread presence than he did that game but he hasn't really done much yet either). They haven't interacted much with each other. Toad has thrown out a few names, as has risk, but each other's have not come up I don't believe. I don't know who the third would be. I would add zephirdd again because toad said he didn't like the zephirdd lynch d1, but risk.nuke has come out in favor of such a lynch today. One of the other framer voters I guess.

If assumption (2) above is wrong and it's 1-2-0 and there is a roleblocker and not a framer,

then it's some pair out of

sbrubbles, kurumi, zephirdd, and sloosh

Which means it's unlikely to be sloosh and sbrubbles because of sloosh's hard pressure at the end of day one (unless that was just really forward-thinking play or something. It is interesting that sloosh hasn't continued to press sbrubbles day two. Acually a quick filter check shows that he's away this weekend so that explains that.). It's also unlikely to be kurumi and zephirdd because of kurumi's stance toward zephirdd. Any combination of the others is possible in my eyes.

On June 01 2012 04:39 Toadesstern wrote:
That's got to be a joke. Godfather? Why?!?! It was clear the decision would be either RB or framer at some point and you chose to pick Godfather and completly wasted your vote?
Someone explained (I think risk?) d0 that the only solution to not screw up as mafia is to pick 1-1-1. 1 guy votes RB, one guy votes framer, one guy picks GF because that way they add 1 to each thing and don't change a thing.

So wtf?

On June 01 2012 05:29 Toadesstern wrote:

Well you've got to agree that it's looking weird that you are apparently the only one who voted GF when we talked about how 1-1-1 is the only way for mafia to not screw up and all the talk d0 was either about RB > framer or about framer > RB.
Why didn't you talk about this? This is essentially the same thing I was talking about in PYP when talking with risk.
I have no problem with people telling me they think otherwise and that we should change a "plan" but I do have a problem with people ninja-voting without telling us screwing us over.
If what you said is reasonable (and I don't think it is) you should have tried to explain to us why what you said is reasonable. Yet here you stand, voting GF and it's apparently not important enough to you what role mafia gets because you haven't told us so and you still voted GF and not, like everyone else either RB or framer. That's really odd.

On June 01 2012 21:50 Toadesstern wrote:
I'd like to lynch into hiro or wbg at this point.

Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia who says "well yeah, but would a mafia claim mafia?" which just doesn't work for me anymore since PYP.

WBG is just plain ridiculous right now and he's way better as town than what we see here. Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet :p

On June 01 2012 21:50 Toadesstern wrote:
I'd like to lynch into hiro or wbg at this point.

Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia who says "well yeah, but would a mafia claim mafia?" which just doesn't work for me anymore since PYP.
WBG is just plain ridiculous right now and he's way better as town than what we see here. Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet :p

On June 02 2012 10:16 Toadesstern wrote:
got ninja'ed
About sbrubbles: I'll tell you once d2 has started for obvious reasons, sry.

On June 03 2012 00:35 Toadesstern wrote:
Okay back and I know I promised I would talk about who those 2 guys are I mentioned and why they are mafia but I realized I was retarded when I said that. See you d2 :p

On June 04 2012 07:27 Toadesstern wrote:

1) You say you don't believe in the 1-1-1 unless risk is mafia. Later you say you think it's me + Risk ?
2) Prplhz's vote can be used for 1-1-1 as well, you considered him the alternative yet you say it has to be 2-1 either way?
3) You say my case on Prplhz is strong and therefore doubt I'd be bussing him bud at the same time doubt Rad would bus me? What's the difference that makes you think one is possible and the other one is not?
4) Prplhz playing using the "invalid vote" thing. You played PYP as well? You saw sent "counterclaim" risk & marv as mafia? You saw barundar counterclaim the medic as SK ? I'd say at least equally ballsy and as mentioned the reason I don't consider that an argument anymore lol
5) I am as confusing as in PYP? What did I flip in PYP again?
6) Yeah the third in that "mafiateam" (I'm making it in " " tags because I'm not mafia...) would be Zephirdd. Because frankly Zephirdd and I like each other so much. As seen when I did the case on prplhz.

On June 04 2012 07:27 Radfield wrote:
Why is Toad scum.

Or rather, why do I think Toad is scum. This may be slightly long winded, and it certainly won't be concise. Toad is an active player as scum, and has fooled me twice before because of that. There is no clear and decisive scum agenda Toad is pushing, and there is no one thing that makes him scum(though I did find my first ever real-live damning scumslip). Instead what I have is a body of evidence that shows Toad is not playing with Town goals in mind. He is playing in an effort to lead mislynches, and with a goal of keeping town moving in the wrong direction.

I find very little scummy in Toad's Day 0 play. With lots to contribute and lots to discuss it is extremely easy for an active scum player(like Toad) to blend in on Day 0. Apart from the fact that he begins to buddy me very early on, I see little that leads me to think he is scum in the first 24 hours.

Day 1 however is a very different story. I'd like to talk about 4 main points. First, the pushing of Hiropro. Second, the WBG flip flop(which has been discussed, but not adequately). Third, and most damning, the double scum slip. Fourth and lastly, the case on Prplhz. There are also several additional small isolated issues which I will mention.

Please remember that none of these points by themselves indicate that Toad is scum. But taken as an entire body of evidence they amount to a damning case against a very likely scum player.

I'd also like to mention that this case is NOT based on my previous analysis of Framer/Roleblocker/GF votes. That was an exercise to narrow down my focus, NOT the basis of a case. However I am confident that I was correct in my assessment.

---

Point Number 1: the attack on Hiropro

What I'd like to represent is that Toad attempts to push a lynch onto Hiro very strongly. A lynch not based on whether or not Hiro is scummy, but rather based solely on the fact that Hiro voted GF. Additionally, Toad states strongly and ephatically that Hiro is scum.... and then waffles away and gives alternate targets.

Let me say that again, he is almost sure that hiro is scum, going so far as to say "Hiro is basicly a claimed mafia", but then offers up other lynch options. What!? If you think a guy is for sure scum, and has slipped hard, you don't just offer up other options.

Also, witness the tone:

First, incredulity and confusion, but no accusation:



Second: Weirdness and oddness, with some discussion about why you should stick to the plans. Again, no hint of a strong accusation here. An accusation perhaps of not being a team player, even equating his play to a townie from a different game, but both those things actually soft accuse Hiropro of being Town, just not a team player.



Next post and several hours later Toad drops down his vote without further discussion. No additional points raised, but we've gone from gentle admonition to wanting him to hang.

He follows it up with this post which is a giant contradiction. A) thinks Hiro is basically a claimed mafia. B) is willing to lynch some other guy who is NOT a claimed mafia in Toads eyes. That does not jive one bit.




Toad then goes on to only softly push Hiropro. First adding on a convoluted reason for him to be scum, which is quickly shown to be incorrect, and then falling into softy urging posts like these:

+ Show Spoiler +

This from a guy who felt he had bagged a scum straight up. The real gist here is that Toad's tone does not follow any kind of cohesion. He's hot and cold and up and down on hiro, but always with a pushing towards lynch.

---

Point 2: The bugs flip=flop

First Toad makes 3 posts that point him having a pretty null read on bugs, and certainly not a scum read:
+ Show Spoiler +

However, without mentioning him again, he now wants to lynch bugs. Not only that, but he's adding in bugs when he has already apparently found a 'claimed mafia' in Hiropro.



Also, look at his reasoning: not knowing the cycle was 24 hours, and not posting. Yet those are the exact thing that Toad mentioned earlier, not as scummy though, but as null! So how do those things suddenly become the basis of a case to rival hiropro, someone he thinks is very likely scum.

Straight up contradictions.

---

Point 3: The scum slips

Let me be clear that I have never before found what I consider to be a true 'scum-slip'. The word gets bandied about on this site, and can mean pretty much anything. What it really means though, is to be in possession of information that townies could not possibly have, and only mafia could have.




hmm, where's the scum-slip you ask? I missed it at first too, but it's very clearly there. Toad is absolutely 100% he will be around on Day 2. There is only 1 way, and I do mean 1 way, that Toad can be convinced he will live till Day 2.

But maybe it was just a slip of the tongue, and he's not actually sure he'll survive the night....



Except he does it again!! He confirms the scumslip. This is a guy who just recently was shot night 1 in WoF mini-mafia, and has been getting shot more and more by mafia. There is no reason at all he should be certain he'll survive the night. In fact, if he is town he should be expecting that he is one of the more likely shots.

In fact, he even posts his prplhz case right before the deadline, as if he might get shot. But how then is he 100% certain he'll survive till Day 2. There are no vets, and no other way he could be certain he will survive.

The only way to be certain is if he is scum.

---

Point 4: The prplhz case

I'm going to make this brief, as I feel there is already a body of evidence that shows Toads guilt without this. However Toads push on prplhz is indicative of a scum-push. Very often, when a scum player tries to push a townie, he does it by citing the wrong reasons. There are reasons to see prplhz as scummy, but NOT because of his defense of Navillus.

The key is that prplhz defended Navillus several times, but then switched over and voted for him early on in the wagon(3rd vote). There is an argument to be made there that prplhz was scummy in doing that. Toad touches on that, but his focus is squarely on the fact that prplhz should not have found Navillus scummy in the first place.

This is a competely backwards approach, one because prplhz was clear in his reasoning, and second because townies are defended all the time along the same lines prplhz was using.

Toad is pushing prplhz for the wrong reason, something which scum do all the time. This is not a particularly strong point, but a valid one nonetheless.

---

Additionally, Toad has been buddying me all game, asking for activity without contributing himself and appealing to dead players. Add in the 4 points of my case, and you have a player who is almost assuredly mafia.


Vote for Toad. In fact, I don't even mind if you vote in the voting thread too, as I'm fairly sure he is scum.

##Vote: Toadesstern

On June 04 2012 08:11 Toadesstern wrote:
Basicly: Read PYP and LV (n1, especially wbg's answer ) and nothing you mentioned stands as a reason to think I am mafia unless you consider the scumslip as something.

The scumslip is obviously bullshit. As you pointed out. I said I'm going to make a big post and see you d2. I was referring to the post about Prplhz. That's why I said I don't people to talk about reads n1 when I saw Kurumi go at prplhz.
I was referring to my case on prplhz and that shows I am referring to the deadline when I'm saying "see you d2" and not to some other post that isn't even existing...

I'd take the "didn't know about the 24h"-thing much more as an "not caring about the game"-argument than the fact that people are posting so little right now.

Add that to what I mentioned earlier about him (not knowing the d0 cycle was only 24 hours, not posting) and I feel like wbg would be the best vet to lynch into if I can convince you to lynch into a vet

On June 04 2012 07:45 talismania wrote:


1) if it's 1-1-1 then I doubt you're scum because of how involved you were in the d0 discussion and because you pushed hiropro so hard yesterday. So yes, if it's 1-1-1 I think risk.nuke could certainly be involved. But I don't buy that it is 1-1-1.

2) obviously anyone's vote can be used for 1-1-1 if it is that way, but again I don't think it is.

3) I say that you are making a strong case on prp and are therefore unlikely to be mafia with him. I say that radfield is making a case on you and is therefore unlikely to be mafia with you. Both are the same to me - I think you misread.

4) of course prp doing that is possible. Hence the paranoia of playing mafia, "the educated guessing game of epic proportions" or whatever tl calls it. I'm not ruling prp out by any means but at some point you have to favor the simplest explanation.

5) true, which is why I put that bit in the "there's not much arguing for toad and risk" section.

6) the third could be anyone in any of these scenarios really but you're right in that I hadn't really considered your interactions with zephirdd today relative to yesterday.

On May 30 2012 09:48 wherebugsgo wrote:
Shut up Toad you're not worth a mafia bullet. You cause so much disruption regardless of alignment it's no wonder everyone calls you hypnotoad.

We kill gambit man today. He ninja voted ET yesterday and he's said nothing. Eat shit and die, scum.

##vote Gambitx32

On June 04 2012 08:16 talismania wrote:


Actually, another point in light of the case rad just posted: why did you reply so defensively to my post at all?

On June 04 2012 00:29 risk.nuke wrote:
@Hiro: Will I need to repeat every little thing so that your tiny brain can puzzle it together. I posted additional reasons for why zephirdd is a good lynch. It was not a new case because zephirdd already had a case on him.

On June 04 2012 08:20 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if I am referring to Day2 show me the big post on d2 I was referring to on d2...

Here's a little quote from WBG from LV after I said I'm probably going to die n1:

and I've got that a lot. I take the neutral stance on wether or not I'm going to die n1 as an improvement because I was told to not talk about it anymore A LOT.

On June 04 2012 08:20 Toadesstern wrote:
Ok if I am referring to Day2 show me the big post on d2 I was referring to on d2...

On June 02 2012 10:16 Toadesstern wrote:
got ninja'ed
About sbrubbles: I'll tell you once d2 has started for obvious reasons, sry.

On June 04 2012 08:34 HiroPro wrote:
EBWOP: My formatting is all screwed up.

---

There's no need to be rude. You never mention what parts of my case or talismania's reads or Radfield's reads on Zephirdd you agree with. The reasons that you mention have nothing to do with whether or not he is mafia. You are being extremely inactive and not making any proper reads or cases of your own. Don't expect me to treat you like confirmed town.

---

I agree with Radfield. I don't find the "going to be there d2" scummy but both the push on me (the uneven nature of it, especially when I look at people like Sbrubbles who also pushed me but did it very differently) and the really strange accusation on WBG (especially when Toad attempted to use this in his case against prplhz) are scummy. Toad's response to my questioning on the WBG part of his case against prplhz was bad, especially since he misrepresents prplhz (says that prplhz continued to push for WBG lynch), when in fact that was not the case at all.

Zephirdd and risk.nuke are both looking a little weird to me, but Toad's behavior is not only very scummy, but has clear mafia motives.

##Vote: Toadesstern (I will not be voting in the actual thread until much closer to the deadline)

On June 04 2012 08:35 Radfield wrote:



Allow me to remove the irrelevent parts of your post and leave the only relevant bit:



OK, that's much easier to read. You are trying to tell me that when you said D2, you were actually referring to the end of night 1.... right....



'once day 2 has started'

'once day 2 has started'

'once day 2 has started'

How does 'once day 2 has started', mean 'the end of night 1'.

I know it sucks when you caught in a scum-slip, but take solace in the fact that it was only the icing on the cake. I was leaning strong scum on you before I even found that.