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Experiment Mafia II - Page 18

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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purple2
Profile Joined April 2011
56 Posts
May 01 2011 16:45 GMT
#341
I'm seriously thinking Green2 was not scum. It was a unanimous vote. Green's vote went on Zerg both day 1 and day 2. Green may have been insane but I will be amazed to see he was scum.

If our reveal shows 1 scum remaining I'm thinking red was red.
Blue1
Profile Joined April 2011
71 Posts
May 01 2011 16:53 GMT
#342
So orange, you came up with some sort of plan to confirm a TOWNIE? You added confusion and WIFOM, just to confirm a townie? Missing your bad logic does nothing to confirm scum, so if you are town your plan was definitively a bad one.
Orange2
Profile Joined April 2011
103 Posts
May 01 2011 19:24 GMT
#343
On May 02 2011 01:53 Blue1 wrote:
So orange, you came up with some sort of plan to confirm a TOWNIE? You added confusion and WIFOM, just to confirm a townie? Missing your bad logic does nothing to confirm scum, so if you are town your plan was definitively a bad one.

The hope was that I could stop being suspicious of pink, he seems to be trying but I can't shake the feeling that there's something off about him. Am I tunneling? Maybe, but I've learned that sometimes a little tunneling is a good thing, if nothing else it keeps people on their toes.

And yes, I did add a little bit of confusion, for a little while, again I was hoping the profits would outweigh the losses, it didn't exactly turn out that way, sorry, but thats part of playing mafia, sometimes the risks dont have as much of a payoff as you would expect.

Either way, thoughts on my list? People you would rather were on my medic list who aren't? People who should be on the DT list but are not?

Also who do you people think should be lynched tomorrow? I'm oscillating between Pink and Zerg with yellow in third, but I'd like to hear other peoples thoughts.

And yes, I do like to ask a lot of questions, I find it fosters discussion.
Protoss1
Profile Joined April 2011
47 Posts
May 01 2011 21:16 GMT
#344
Looking through Zerg1's post, he hasn't contributed much towards scum hunting.

On April 27 2011 01:16 Zerg1 wrote:
HI

ORANGE2 IS SCUM

GOODNIGHT


On April 27 2011 03:57 Zerg1 wrote:
CHANGED MY MIND, PROTOSS1 IS SCUM


On April 27 2011 05:20 Zerg1 wrote:

NEWB MAFIA IS NEWB

NO EXCUSES FOR BEING SCUMMY


He then hounded me for a few posts and then when I started making it more and more evident that I was blue, he quietly backed away never to mention my name again. Was this a Townie realizing he was tunneling the wrong person (me, a Townie), or a scum successfully acquiring their first target?

The rest of Zerg's post consist of rallying behind the easy voting of Red and then Green. His posting has slowed down since Day 1... is this real life kicking in, or a scum not wanting to draw unneeded attention to themselves?

Oh, and before I forget:

Vote##: Use Power of Reveal

RebirthOfLeGenD
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
USA5860 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-02 04:36:41
May 02 2011 04:36 GMT
#345
[image loading]
Day 3
Sorry about the delay in turning back on the lights my dear little experimentees. There was some breaking news that took away my attention.

Meapak's voice rang out "Lights on in 30 seconds." There was a scurrying of noise, a shuffle of footsteps and two resounding thuds. As the lights came on and the towns vision came back into focus the bodies of Purple2 and Yellow1 lay on the ground motionless. The crane descended and removed them from the chamber.


The day has begun, the power is activated. There is currently 1 mafia alive.
Be a man, Become a Legend. TL Mafia Forum Ask for access!!
Orange2
Profile Joined April 2011
103 Posts
May 02 2011 07:52 GMT
#346
They killed... yellow? I guess they assumed he wouldn't be medic protected. I'm going to go back over their posts and see who they were suspicious of, maybe they died for a reason. We are at 5/1 so we can afford exactly one mislynch, on the bright side if we hit mafia we instantly know, as we win, on the not so bright side, we still have to actually find the mafia.

I propose we lynch Zerg, reading over green's posts it seemed like he was trying to clear zerg from suspicion, especially with his whole "I'm playing to my wincondition spiel"

Comments, thoughts, ideas, burning desires?
Orange2
Profile Joined April 2011
103 Posts
May 02 2011 09:21 GMT
#347
So, I just looked over yellow's posts, he didn't leave us much to work with unfortunately, the only post that has any real relevant recent information is


On May 01 2011 07:43 yellow1 wrote:
I had my doubts about orange at first, but they've been dispelled for now. Everyone else is still a suspect.

Zerg is suspicious for obvious reasons, if you are town please try harder. Blue gives me the eebly jeeblies though I can't put my finger on why, exactly.


which shows his suspicion of both Zerg and Blue, now Zerg is a commonly held suspect, but blue isn't so much, I currently think blue is town, but I will be looking over him again later (I'll actually be looking over *everyone* later)

Onto Purple who gave us much more to work with.
On April 28 2011 08:21 purple2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2011 07:31 Blue1 wrote:
Also your first example is mylo and the second is lylo. You are assuming too much either way, as town has to have some power roles for this setup to be even close to balanced.

Same attitude different approach.
Scum B.

You guys really want us to lynch active scum. Sure. I'm pissed at the prospect of wasting lynches on inactive slackers. So I'll be more than happy to oblige both of you.

another post that is suspicious of blue, now I disagree with the reasoning behind it, but its relevant I think to point out that purple at one point was suspicious of blue.

On April 28 2011 21:49 purple2 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 28 2011 21:35 Pink2 wrote:
I am not a replacement. RoL will confirm, and also confirm that it was entirely his fault :p. I was not aware that I was in this game until after Day 1 ended.

//Pink2
[image loading]

Well then welcome aboard. What do you think of Random?
And I'm not sold on your assessment of blue atm either. He may be town but I'm not leaning that way atm.

And where the hell is Terran??????


still suspicious of blue.


On April 30 2011 04:06 purple2 wrote:
terran. Unless his participation increases significantly we really are screwed going into a lylo situation with him.


Also suspicious of terran.

So essentially what both these posters had in common was suspecting blue, while each individually also suspected a second person. This is interesting to say the least. Usually people are killed for a reason, could it be that these guys were onto something? Blue has just jumped up to the top of my list of people to analyze in depth, at this point everyone who is left alive should be thoroughly scrutinized. Also Terran needs to step up his game, his only major post is a FoS on me, and its not even a well constructed FoS.

Come on people we know we lynched at least one mafia, lets find the last one!
Orange2
Profile Joined April 2011
103 Posts
May 02 2011 09:29 GMT
#348
Also Protoss, you survived the night, care to reveal who you protected last night?

purple2
Profile Joined April 2011
56 Posts
May 02 2011 11:12 GMT
#349
GG
GL town
yellow1
Profile Joined April 2011
26 Posts
May 02 2011 11:49 GMT
#350
bah, good choice mafia, I was trying to lay low.

gl town
Protoss1
Profile Joined April 2011
47 Posts
May 02 2011 15:23 GMT
#351
Hi Orange,

I protected you again last night. I figured if I switched targets it would increase my chances of accidentally healing a mafia member.

Of the remaining players I am still the most suspicious of Zerg. Blue I have mixed feelings about, but I was hesitant to press the issue earlier since he was tunneling me for a while, didn't want people to think I was just pointing the finger back in return.
Zerg1
Profile Joined April 2011
27 Posts
May 02 2011 15:47 GMT
#352
Hi guys, there's only 6 players left so we can take our time lynching. We should establish a list of confirmed townies and then we can deduce the mafia from there.

We have 2 chances at lynching correctly so we gotta pick right.

I think everyone should write a list of who they think is the most likely the mafia from most likely to least likely. I think protoss1 is obviously town at this point.

Most likely mafia
pink2
terran1
orange2
blue1
protoss1
Least likely mafia

Zerg1
Profile Joined April 2011
27 Posts
May 02 2011 16:04 GMT
#353
Actually, after reading some more posts, i'm not so certain protoss1 is town.
Orange2
Profile Joined April 2011
103 Posts
May 02 2011 16:10 GMT
#354
I like that idea Zerg, however you should be aware that theres no such thing as a "confirmed" townie, on people you think are town. This close to lylo we cannot afford the luxury of assuming anyone is town. Also one good post does not make up for a whole game of non-contribution

Most likely mafia
Zerg1( a decent start then disappears till right now, theres also the whole thing with green claiming DT and saying that its a game winning maneuver...)
terran1 (gets replaced, promises to contribute, dosn't contribute...)
pink2 (OMG Orange is still tunneling!)
blue1 (your pointing out my protoss plan was bad cemented this for me)
protoss1 (I buy the claim, if it isn't true I'm not going to worry about it till we hit lylo)
Least likely mafia

This is a bad time for the town to go afk, we have the game half won, lets avenge the dead townies. Lets do this for random, and yellow and purple who were all vilely murdered by the enemy.

So, zerg what makes you think pink is "Most likely mafia" I know I've posted plenty of arguments against him, but what are your thoughts?
darmousseh
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
United States3437 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-05-02 17:22:30
May 02 2011 17:12 GMT
#355
Developer for http://mtgfiddle.com
Zerg1
Profile Joined April 2011
27 Posts
May 02 2011 17:17 GMT
#356
Pink 1 Analysis

On April 29 2011 18:02 Pink2 wrote:
He supported my plan, but also found a big flaw: Here. If I were scum, why would I hit someone who was agreeing with me? I would think that you would focus more of your attention on yellow's immediate response.

//Pink2
[image loading]



Asking question like "if i were scum why would i do this"


On April 29 2011 18:12 Pink2 wrote:
I'm a very math-oriented person, and I've always been much more interested in the game theory ^^. But lets see...

I think Yellow deserves more attention. Most of his posts have been one-liners, but he keeps up enough activity to seem... active lol.

Zerg is also a suspect who has completely dropped off the map. Not sure what to read into that.

And if there is a traitor in this game, I suspect that its you, Orange, which worries me slightly, as it is the goal of the traitor to encourage LYLO as quickly as possible.

//Pink2
[image loading]


Unnecessary statements that are not useful in a game with no reveals. Randomly assigning FoS on orange for no reason. A key scum characteristic is to FoS everyone and then tunnel a single person.


On April 30 2011 06:49 Pink2 wrote:
Is it just me or did green just claim scum?

//Pink2
[image loading]



This is the biggest scum tell by far which is an omgus.

On May 01 2011 19:03 Pink2 wrote:
Sometime today I'm going to find the ratio of # of statements to # of questions by Orange. I think that'll be an interesting statistic.

//Pink2
[image loading]



What the heck? How does that help at all? He appears to be contributing without actually contributing.

That's why he is my #1 on scum suspect.


Blue1
Profile Joined April 2011
71 Posts
May 02 2011 17:24 GMT
#357
So the vote against red was 3-2 so the possible mafia in case red was mafia are terran, pink, orange and protoss. I find this scenario unlikely.
If green was mafia, basically anyone could be mafia, but my main suspicions are Zerg and Orange.
Zerg because his behaviour is extremelly scummy and maybe green was so frustrated that he wanted to destroy this game.
Orange I have various reasons.
First because he's been posting medic protect lists. This makes the job for mafia easier, specially if we have a new player who is medic in this game, who will probably follow that list.
Second because his whole "gambit", just to confirm a townie, which makes no sense to me. What about your Lynch all Liers policy, does that only aplies when it suits you?
Third because of green's reaction before he got lynched. The timing of it seems extremely planed. Green claims cop > Orange quickly asks him the result > Green proceds to mindlessly posting the wrong result (if this wasn't his plan he would have taken the time to read the dt role) > Orange points it out and become the town hero and suposebly clears him of suspicion. I don't buy it. I don't buy it at all.
Voting Orange
Terran1
Profile Joined April 2011
15 Posts
May 02 2011 17:32 GMT
#358
On May 03 2011 02:17 Zerg1 wrote:
Pink 1 Analysis

Show nested quote +
On April 29 2011 18:02 Pink2 wrote:
He supported my plan, but also found a big flaw: Here. If I were scum, why would I hit someone who was agreeing with me? I would think that you would focus more of your attention on yellow's immediate response.

//Pink2
[image loading]



Asking question like "if i were scum why would i do this"


Show nested quote +
On April 29 2011 18:12 Pink2 wrote:
I'm a very math-oriented person, and I've always been much more interested in the game theory ^^. But lets see...

I think Yellow deserves more attention. Most of his posts have been one-liners, but he keeps up enough activity to seem... active lol.

Zerg is also a suspect who has completely dropped off the map. Not sure what to read into that.

And if there is a traitor in this game, I suspect that its you, Orange, which worries me slightly, as it is the goal of the traitor to encourage LYLO as quickly as possible.

//Pink2
[image loading]


Unnecessary statements that are not useful in a game with no reveals. Randomly assigning FoS on orange for no reason. A key scum characteristic is to FoS everyone and then tunnel a single person.


Show nested quote +
On April 30 2011 06:49 Pink2 wrote:
Is it just me or did green just claim scum?

//Pink2
[image loading]



This is the biggest scum tell by far which is an omgus.

Show nested quote +
On May 01 2011 19:03 Pink2 wrote:
Sometime today I'm going to find the ratio of # of statements to # of questions by Orange. I think that'll be an interesting statistic.

//Pink2
[image loading]



What the heck? How does that help at all? He appears to be contributing without actually contributing.

That's why he is my #1 on scum suspect.

I don't get this analysis. Can you explain to me why the things mean that Pink2 is scum?

In addition why is this
On April 30 2011 06:49 Pink2 wrote:
Is it just me or did green just claim scum?

//Pink2
[image loading]

OMGUS?
Orange2
Profile Joined April 2011
103 Posts
May 02 2011 18:13 GMT
#359
On May 03 2011 02:24 Blue1 wrote:
So the vote against red was 3-2 so the possible mafia in case red was mafia are terran, pink, orange and protoss. I find this scenario unlikely.
If green was mafia, basically anyone could be mafia, but my main suspicions are Zerg and Orange.
Zerg because his behaviour is extremelly scummy and maybe green was so frustrated that he wanted to destroy this game.
Orange I have various reasons.
First because he's been posting medic protect lists. This makes the job for mafia easier, specially if we have a new player who is medic in this game, who will probably follow that list.
Second because his whole "gambit", just to confirm a townie, which makes no sense to me. What about your Lynch all Liers policy, does that only aplies when it suits you?
Third because of green's reaction before he got lynched. The timing of it seems extremely planed. Green claims cop > Orange quickly asks him the result > Green proceds to mindlessly posting the wrong result (if this wasn't his plan he would have taken the time to read the dt role) > Orange points it out and become the town hero and suposebly clears him of suspicion. I don't buy it. I don't buy it at all.
Voting Orange


Again I explained the gambit, and it was a gambit, not a lie, I misrepresented my stance and said something I didn't think, but I did not lie. Again it didn't have the payoff I expected, but that happens sometimes, it did give useful information. lying is where I claim DT and then say "lol I wasn't actually a dt" lying is not me proposing a dubious plan to see who calls it out as dubious. One involves an attempt to fool the town into doing what you want them based on things that are wrong, the other is a tactical maneuver to try to catch mafia/identify town

And saying that posting medic protect list is scummy is utter BS, medic lists/dt lists only help the town, 1.) they make my stance on who I think is valuable clear, 2.) They make the mafia face wifom when choosing targets 3.) they help inexperienced players realize who to protect. 4.) they provide a focal point of discussion. This arguments was made in XXXVIII, read the post game, BC clearly states that medic lists are a good thing to have.

On me calling out green on his BS, its the standard procedure, you always ask what the exact result was, its the same way Protac was called out in XXXVIII. I apologize for jumping on scum when I identify them, next time I'll just let them spam their lies happily to avoid undue suspicion. I had green pegged as scum day 1, I was the first to call him scum and I consistently pressured him, and I identified his fake claim, if that makes me scummy in your eyes then so be it. I'm sorry that he was stupid enough not to read the role in depth, but knowing who it is, I'm not that surprised either.

I notice that this accusation is coming up after I pointed out that both dead players fingered you as mafia, did I make you uncomfortable?
Blue1
Profile Joined April 2011
71 Posts
May 02 2011 18:26 GMT
#360
So now you are saying I'm scum? Didn't you confirm I was town just a while ago?
You are a smart player and I'm sure you realise that posting medic lists when one confirmed medic is a new player who will most probably follow that list will only benefit mafia. Look at the kills. None of those were on your lists.
As for you calling him out, that was not the part that I find suspicious. It's actually the fact the he answered it wrong that makes the whole thing too good to be true. If green wanted to ruin the game he would have made it more obvious. The fact that he was so sure we would never suspect his gambit made me think: Who would get the most town cred in that situation? That would be you, who sucessfully exposed his false claim.
You are scum. There's no way around it.
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