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On June 04 2010 01:55 zeks wrote:
Excuse my math: its not 1/225 its actually 1/15*
Even your corrected math is inaccurate.
If you assume that the two DTs are in the same bracket and that they will talk to a townie that they find and they do not get roleblocked:
The probability the first DT will find the second is 1/14, the probability at least one of the DTs will find the other is 1/14+13/14^2. The probability the two DTs will land on the same person who appears to be a townie given that neither of the two DTs targetted each other is 1/13*P(a random person not the two DTs appears to be a townie). If we assume two millers, that makes P(a random person not the two DTs appears to be a townie) = 21/28 = 3/4. Note that 1/28 here is the godfather, but to keep this from getting ridiculously complicated, lets assume the godfather will go ahead and link them up hoping he can leverage this into a victory down the line. In reality he'd probably just put out a hit on them both.
So the probability the two DTs will link up in a single rolecheck given that they're in the same bracket is (1/14+13/14^2)+(1-(1/14+13/14^2))(1/13)(3/4)=13.8%+5.0%=18.8%, or nearly 1 in 5. These odds skyrocket as the DTs perform their second and third rolechecks.
The biggest factor you failed to account for was that the DTs are highly likely to find each other (wasting rolechecks) by your method. Leaving the DTs free to search throughout the entire group reduces this overlap tremendously.
I hope that those who read Zeks' posts can see the constant flaws in his logic.
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On June 04 2010 03:43 pyr0ma5ta wrote:
I am most suspicious of Yellowink, for the obvious Ink clue (is this too obvious to be true?), but mostly because of his running for mayor. It is unwise to vote him in, as I'm sure that having a Mafia mayor is basically the worst thing possible.
pyr0, this is the very reason I am running. The worst thing that could happen is a mafia mayor that you have no way to figure out if they're mafia. After the clues got compiled, the mafia team perhaps got together and put up a candidate for mayor that does not have any current suspicion (eg Darth). If he wins this election and ends up being red, it will be devastating to the town.
On the flip side, the best thing that could happen is to have a townie mayor that you're able to clean. That's me! Once you know you can trust me, I will be a devastating force against the mafia due to my immunity to hits and ability to be a focal point for all knowledge. I will be able to mobilize the town into an effective force to root out all of the red.
In the middle, we have the mayors we can't confirm and mayors who are shown to be red. The mayor can be hung just like anyone else. If the mayor can't be confirmed in some way (remember they're immune to rolechecks), his real power is largely left dormant.
Now I am leaning towards Darth being town just from his posting style. But I wouldn't put my life in his hands. I wouldn't be comfortable trusting him with any info I might have. The result will be that he's either a middle strength mayor or our worst nightmare. On the other hand, I will eventually be cleaned by a DT or shown to be red - either a best case scenario or at worst falling in the middle. This is why you should vote YellowInk for Mayor! 
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Okay, I caught up on the progress:
Reason I voted for Darth is I played a total of two games with Darth in it (Caller and Ace's). In both game, Darth had decent knowledge of the game and didn't make newbie mistake. He also supported lynching inactive in the early game where not much information is available.
Also, my advise to detective:
Do not do what YellowInk is telling you. His action is very suspicious and those who are suspicious should not run for mayor before they are cleared.
Also, use role check as early as possible (night 1 and every other night. Reason is that you don't want your rolechecks to be wasted if you somehow gets killed. Find someone whom you believe is totally innocent. This can be achieved by rolechecking on night 1. If you detect a anti-town, stay quiet and don't tell anyone about result. If you detect a pro-town then use him as your spoke person (not Likely you role checked the godfather). Another reason why you want to use those rolecheck as soon as possible because there is not much clues to pick from in the early game as oppose to the mid to late game. In the late game, there would be so many juicy clues that you want to check that it is almost as important as a rolecheck. Alternatively, you can choose use 2 rolechecks early while saving 1 rolecheck for later when you really need it. Remember, role check works almost always and gives much more information than a clue check which might not give you any result (fail clue check).
For medic:
I advise you to protect those who are active and shown intelligence in the game but not suspicious to be a mafia. Mafia wants to create as much confusion in the thread as possible. They also don't want the town to have a good plan to finding them which means those who have a good plan tend to be the target.
For Vigilante:
Stay calm man. We will need you after a few day (3 or 4) when the town would be in confusion at that point and need your one time kill to clarify things.
That is my advise to the blue roles. Remember, you don't have to follow what I am telling you but use this as a reference. If you are new to the game, you want to listen to everyone's advise to you and decide who's advise is the best follow it or incorporate these advises into a good plan.
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I'm not too suspicious of YellowInk yet, but I don't think he would make a good mayor. Not to mention his initial plan of "clearing himself" from one clue check. And all he's done is bash my plan repeatedly and state the obvious rather than come up with something constructive for the town to work off of.
I didn't even bother to check your math (sure mine is probably wrong), my point is pretty much exactly how Lunar put it in his previous post.
- DTs should rolecheck night 1 because the clues we have right now are vague (I'm not saying that just cause some point to me)
- Taking into consideration that the rolecheck may hit a Miller or GF I think we should still take the risk (Whether or not the DT decides to form that inner circle judging from his rolecheck results is up to the DT's discretion)
- At least we'll get somewhere by the end of night 1
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A question to people with more experience with the whole election dynamic: is it common for mafia to run for office?
If so, I'd really like to see more candidates as even if we don't elect a mafia mayor it'd be easy for us to get a scum pardoner and that almost seems worse.
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Also, I oppose the DT linking scheme and I don't encourage Dts to purposing target the same townie to form a link. The reason is dts only get a grand total of 3 rolecheck in the entire game. You are wasting 2 out of the 6 available rolecheck just to form a link between themselves which is not worth it.
Also, information sharing has limited usage and it's most important usage is to avoid overlapping in rolechecks in the future (which is you purposing form a link together, you already waste 2 rolecheck) so using 2 role checks to avoid future overlapping in role check is stupid.
Then there is overlapping in clue checks. As the game progress on, there would be SO many clues available, and the probability of overlapping in clue check is so small that you don't need to take much consideration out of it.
If dts happened to target the same person, then do it.
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Yellow Ink, if you are pro town, then you are doing the absolute wrong thing. You had cause so much confusion which kind of hint you are mafia. If you are pro town, then calm down.
For the first election of mayor, I want the mayor to target the inactive but I don't want Yellow Ink since he is acting so suspicious and IF he happens to be a mafia, he would target an pro town inactive.
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Also, because of limited information we gotten. I don't want any person who relate to the clues in any factor be running as mayor because their chance of being a mafia is higher and I don't want them to target an pro town inactive.
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Holy cow this game is a lot more intensive than I imagined! Exciting none the less though. As it stands, I feel uncomfortable with voting in YellowInk not because of the clue that links to him, but his overeager attitude of getting in office. Just seems a bit off to me right now, only time will tell. Like Lunar said, mayor should take out inactives. But you cast for Darth so quickly, and that seems strange to me. Maybe it's because this is my first time playing mafia and I don't understand all the subtle things going on, but it seems too early on to be casting votes when we haven't heard from everyone, as well as given candidates enough time to say their piece.
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YellowInk could be a mafia because of the printer clue (his name).
Crate could be a mafia because of the speeding car clue (public profile has stuff to do with cars).
MooCow could be a mafia because of the throwing knife clue (public profile has him saying that he throws tennis rackets with deadly accuracy).
I haven't had time to look through all of the comments on the thread yet (still on page 9), so sorry if I already repeated stuff and whatnot.
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Not much has happened since I left, but yellowink seems to be pushing really hard. Almost feels like he is the godfather, with the whole 'Elect me and then get detectives to check me. I'll be clean I swearz'
Apart from that, Darth seems to have some reputation as a good player. Other people can verify/vouch for him? Anything on zeks?
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LunarDestiny, I'm not looking for a mud slinging contest here. Everyone is suspect. I am. You are. Darth is. Zeks is. Noone is clear. This being said, your contributions to the thread are left wanting. There is some good information, but both here and in your previous posts, I wonder how much you really understand what's going on.
To preface, I'm not so suspicious of LunarDestiny as I am of Zeks because his false information appears to be constant misunderstanding of how the game is played rather than supplying information that is inaccurate.
On June 04 2010 04:23 LunarDestiny wrote:
Okay, I caught up on the progress:
Reason I voted for Darth is I played a total of two games with Darth in it (Caller and Ace's). In both game, Darth had decent knowledge of the game and didn't make newbie mistake. He also supported lynching inactive in the early game where not much information is available.
This does not make him a good candidate for mayor. This just means he plays a decent game. He could be just as red as the next guy - and since we have no good way to figure out if he is, this is a bad thing. This is also the very platform on which I am running for mayor.
Also, my advise to detective:
Do not do what YellowInk is telling you. His action is very suspicious and those who are suspicious should not run for mayor before they are cleared.
You can't run for mayor after being cleaned since the mayoral elections are on day 1. This game would be VERY different if DTs were able to do investigating before the elections. I invite everyone to read through my posts and think about if you would do that if you were mafia aligned and see if it fits. Then read through my posts and think about if you would do that if you were town aligned and see if it fits. The truth should become clear.
Also, use role check as early as possible (night 1 and every other night. Reason is that you don't want your rolechecks to be wasted if you somehow gets killed. Find someone whom you believe is totally innocent. This can be achieved by rolechecking on night 1. If you detect a anti-town, stay quiet and don't tell anyone about result. If you detect a pro-town then use him as your spoke person (not Likely you role checked the godfather).
Using people as your mouthpiece is a strategy to protect the person who is actually speaking. However, I would warn each and every townie here that just because someone is telling you that they are the DT does not mean that they are! Perhaps on day 3 Mafia player A PMs Townie player B and tells them they know player B is townie and found that player C is mafia on night 1. Then when player B speaks up and says player C is mafia, player C gets hung, then player B gets hit by the mafia that night (3KP can still beat 2 medics) so that the mafia is never revealed. This is just one of many examples possible - the point is that using a mouthpiece like this is challenging and unreliable. It's important that people understand the whole story with respect to risks and rewards in these situations.
Another reason why you want to use those rolecheck as soon as possible because there is not much clues to pick from in the early game as oppose to the mid to late game. In the late game, there would be so many juicy clues that you want to check that it is almost as important as a rolecheck. Alternatively, you can choose use 2 rolechecks early while saving 1 rolecheck for later when you really need it. Remember, role check works almost always and gives much more information than a clue check which might not give you any result (fail clue check).
This is all a fine way of thinking about it. I agree with using rolechecks in the early game. I just didn't want people to follow Zeks' advice to necessarily blow through all your rolechecks ASAP.
For medic:
I advise you to protect those who are active and shown intelligence in the game but not suspicious to be a mafia. Mafia wants to create as much confusion in the thread as possible. They also don't want the town to have a good plan to finding them which means those who have a good plan tend to be the target.
Good mafia players often are active and present intelligent thought in the game as well. It's not the end of the world if you do cover a mafia. I would tend towards protecting those who you tend to believe are town over those who are merely active and intelligent. Use your own judgement - and adding in a bit of a random factor (between various people you are thinking about protecting) can help make it difficult for mafia to predict who medics might protect.
For Vigilante:
Stay calm man. We will need you after a few day (3 or 4) when the town would be in confusion at that point and need your one time kill to clarify things.
That is my advise to the blue roles. Remember, you don't have to follow what I am telling you but use this as a reference. If you are new to the game, you want to listen to everyone's advise to you and decide who's advise is the best follow it or incorporate these advises into a good plan.
Good advice. I encourage research into your role outside this thread as well.
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As of now, there is no better candidate than Darth because the only other person who got a vote is you whom I still don't want you to be mayor.
Using people as your mouthpiece is a strategy to protect the person who is actually speaking. However, I would warn each and every townie here that just because someone is telling you that they are the DT does not mean that they are! Perhaps on day 3 Mafia player A PMs Townie player B and tells them they know player B is townie and found that player C is mafia on night 1. Then when player B speaks up and says player C is mafia, player C gets hung, then player B gets hit by the mafia that night (3KP can still beat 2 medics) so that the mafia is never revealed. This is just one of many examples possible - the point is that using a mouthpiece like this is challenging and unreliable. It's important that people understand the whole story with respect to risks and rewards in these situations.
This can be overcame by having the medic protect the one who is speaking up. If the information is false, that person will then speak up the next day and expose the mafia who pmed him.
Good mafia players often are active and present intelligent thought in the game as well. It's not the end of the world if you do cover a mafia. I would tend towards protecting those who you tend to believe are town over those who are merely active and intelligent. Use your own judgement - and adding in a bit of a random factor (between various people you are thinking about protecting) can help make it difficult for mafia to predict who medics might protect.
Yes, good mafia are active enough not to be suspected. But not all mafia or anti town are active. The nature of the game is those who are more inactive are most likely to be mafia than those who are active. We do not necessary need to kill the good mafia person upright, killing any mafia benefits the town.
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I'm not going to quote someone on this because I think at least 5 people have brought this up: People claim that I am suspicious because I push so hard.
I know I'm town. I know that better than one out of five of you are mafia. I know that I will be cleaned by a clue check. Since it's come up a few times, neither being mayor nor being godfather protects against clue checks. These are the things that make me run for mayor.
Having a reputation as a skilled player is not a good basis for mayoral candidacy. Honestly, I'd rather roulette for the mayor's position than give it to a player because they are skilled. A skilled mafia mayor is devastating just as a skilled townie mayor can be helpful. All it does is enhance the power of the position, not align it.
I know that you know that if I turn up red from the clue check, you'll be able to get rid of me. If I were mafia, I wouldn't be putting myself up for the mayorship. I'd probably be keeping quiet in the election while one of my mafia brethren who had no suspicion ran for office. I wouldn't support them since when I turn up red it'd destabilize his position. I just wouldn't be participating. I'd be keeping quiet at probably 1-3 posts, maybe making an excuse, contributing a bit to clue digging, or just saying nothing of particular relevance like about 10-15 of our 30 are currently doing. The mafia would be MUCH better served by having a suspicionless mayor in position than having me be put up for it.
This is why my aggressiveness for the mayoral post helps give evidence that I am townie aligned.
Vote YellowInk for Mayor!
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Again, there is very limited information available right now. The only clues we got are from day 1 post by Flamewheel. In the post, we got some clues that might or might not be useful, but it is the only information we have. And you are related to the clue. If you are any other pro town people, you have to acknowledge those who are not related to the clues are better mayor candidates than those who are in the list. You are on the list and Darth is not.
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On June 04 2010 05:32 LunarDestiny wrote:
Again, there is very limited information available right now. The only clues we got are from day 1 post by Flamewheel. In the post, we got some clues that might or might not be useful, but it is the only information we have. And you are related to the clue. If you are any other pro town people, you have to acknowledge those who are not related to the clues are better mayor candidates than those who are in the list. You are on the list and Darth is not.
Now I'm not sure you're even reading the whole thread.
I do not acknowledge that those not related to the clues are better mayoral candidates. Here's why:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=127781¤tpage=14#262
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YellowInk, I (we?) don't trust you. The only reason you keep bring up is that you know you are not mafia. Do you expect people to believe what you are saying based on your words alone?
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On June 04 2010 05:39 LunarDestiny wrote:
YellowInk, I (we?) don't trust you. The only reason you keep bring up is that you know you are not mafia. Do you expect people to believe what you are saying based on your words alone?
This is true, but by this logic how can we trust the "I like Darth, he is a good player, he should be mayor". What is stopping you two from being mafia?
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If clues are only moderately effective at incriminating or clearing, this only serves to help my case. If you don't trust that I am town, that is your choice. However, that I can play with no fear of incrimination and put myself up for the post reinforces that I am town. As outlined earlier, if I were red, there are much better choices of tactic I could have taken than trying to be elected.
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EPT
