On March 20 2024 12:39 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:Show nested quote +On March 20 2024 10:08 WombaT wrote:On March 20 2024 08:46 ktll4c91 wrote: I don't understand why good performace in code S and team league is taken to be evidence for being good at prepping in Maru's case. Surely there's a lot of team effort. Especially considering Maru's two teammates Rogue and sOs are probably the best players at prepping for weekenders. I suspect they must have played a significant part in Maru's performance in Code S and teamleague. At weekenders, Maru doesn't get such help, therefore performs worse and we see more tilt, bad builds and upsets from him.
On the other hand, there was a clip in this year's IEM in which Reynor and Rotti discuss how Serral watches and remembers every replay. Weekenders, like GSL, can be prepped for and Serral is good at it. I can't imagine such a player would do worse when he gets even more time to prep in GSLs. This has forever been a bugbear of mine, you need partners to do that prep so in some way it’s a team effort. I also share your theory that Maru is slightly less potent in the weekender format for this very reason. Often his losses are bad choices rather than being mechanically outplayed. Indeed, some of his heavier losses in big games, sOs in that Blizzcon, Rogue in a Code S final were both at the hands of the very teammates who would otherwise help him prep. Not that it diminishes Maru as one of the greats but I do think it’s a minus point against him that’s oft-neglected Wow great points from both of you! I felt similarly, I wouldn't value team league performance super highly because it's... a team victory! For example, just because 1 player racks up lots of ace match wins doesn't necessarily mean that they deserve the credit as an individual. You never know if the teammates/coach simply focused on helping 1 player over another, in order to strategize the best way to win. But I wasn't able to realize that Maru not being able to get the same kind of support may be part of why he's weaker at weekender tournies, and the double whammy that when he's against Rogue/sOs, he's fighting the same people who'd help him prep. I also agree with the point that while preparation tournaments can in ways lead to the "highest level of SC2 play" being shown, in the end it's all relative to the opponents. Weekenders and prep tournaments are simply different formats, everyone is playing in the same format. You could say that having a whole week to prep for an opponent leads to more polished play and more carefully selected strategies, sure. But you can also say that being able to consistently win weekender tournaments where you have much less time to prepare and are forced in much more uncomfortable situations, is much more impressive than having a ton of time to prepare for each match. And if you're able to somehow be consistent in those, whether you're great at improving, or just have so much experience that you're familiar with more situations than others, or just so good at prepping that you can do so in such a condensed format. This is part of why I think players like Taeja winning so so many weekender tournaments where other top players would drown in pools is being so undervalued by people in recent years, whereas back in HotS it was common opinion that he ranked very highly on the GOAT list. More prep time leads to the better players winning more consistently, with the caveat that they could get sniped by a well prepared build sure. However, if you're able to consistently win weekender tournaments with much less prep time, then that's really impressive. There is evidence of players who were great at prep tournaments doing poorly in weekender events, too - for example Nestea. Won 3 Code S, but didn't do very well at tournaments like Iron Squid. Maru is another. There is enough evidence that prep tournaments are not necessarily "harder" than weekender tournaments. They are just different formats and it makes sense that different players excel at different formats. I've had this feeling as well that Maru has benefited greatly from the Jin Air crew, though his success continues to today, so it might not be true. But a team of Rogue, sOs and Maru definitely seems a powerful team for preparation based tournaments for all involved. It was the same in the beginning of WoL with NesteA and MVP on the same team, it seems they were just leagues ahead on how to think about the game.
On March 21 2024 03:43 WombaT wrote: I mean I don’t think it’s impossible Serral wouldn’t have won GSL if he’d been competing there for 6 years, but equally it’s not impossible that I’d woo and marry Sofia Vegata either.
It may be that his environment and work/life balance given his chosen path are just ideal for the guy, but there’s even the frankly terrifying possibility that a Serral forged in the fires of Korea is even stronger.
Firstly Serral has the best win rate versus Korean opposition ever, and by a decent enough margin. Secondly, he generally is only playing the GSL players towards the upper end, good enough to qualify for the big competitions. If he was regularly playing the lower tiers of Korean pros in GSL it’d be even higher.
Looking at his head-to-head match win rates solely against GSL winners/finalists in this span: Maru - 77% Trap - 82% Dark - 65% Cure - 90% TY - 71% Rogue - 53% Zest - 73% Classic - 80% Stats - 69%
While I think people go crazy overboard and say ridiculous things like Serral would sweep it every season or w/e, it’s almost inconceivable to me that he wouldn’t take even one. Even Reynor who is way more streaky and IMO not quite on the same tier I think would probably pull it off at least once.
As a big fan of the game overall, novelty, a huge fan of the GSL and what it’s given over the years it’s absolutely one of my biggest disappointments that getting a few foreigners who could potentially actually win it is accompanied by those said same not playing it regularly.
I wonder who would have the bigger shot, Serral taking a GSL, or Maru taking a WCS.
On March 21 2024 23:38 Mizenhauer wrote:Show nested quote +On March 21 2024 23:22 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 20:31 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 20:05 PremoBeats wrote:On March 21 2024 19:18 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 19:13 Yoshi Kirishima wrote:On March 21 2024 18:55 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 21 2024 18:49 PremoBeats wrote: Counter-argument: The GSL is a prep-based tournament which requires a different skillset than the tournaments Serral has won. Historically we have seen multiple players doing well in the biggest weekend tournaments but doing significantly worse in GSL (sOs, Reynor, Solar for the longest time)
A couple of things: 1. Serral is widely considered to be the best strategic player and his preparation skills have always been way above average. This, if anything, should give him no disadvantage in GSL, but rather the opposite. Serral is used to playing against cheese, as most lower tier Pros try to get him uncomfortable anyways, as that is their "only" chance of defeating him. He further is the only player who has a positive win record versus ALL players he played regularly (at least 10 games) with records that are at least in the 60% win ratios, some - for example against Maru or herO - even in the 70%. 2. From now on, when I talk about Premier Tournaments, I only talk about those with top Korean participation. Maru has won 15 of those, Serral 16. Out of the 16 Serral won, the highest skilled Koreans were present, including Maru. Out of the 15 Maru won, the highest skilled Koreans were present, but not Serral. 3. From 2018-2023 he could have played in 18 GSLs. Now we can make assumptions about several hypotheticals. a. Let's say Serral would have won 3 out of the 18 possible attempts (very low assumption I know, but let's just go with this number). That would put him at 19 PT wins and Maru still at 15. But this is only true if Serral wouldn't have been responsible for kicking Maru out in group stage or any of the final rounds. b. Because if he did, Maru's score would drop. This would make the results even more glaringly obvious. Meaning: 4. We know that Maru never won a World Championship. And the assumption that Serral would have never won a GSL is extremely unlikely. And it is very much in the scope of probability that Serral would have kicked out Maru in any of his attempts. 5. All of the above is taking into account that high tier players will be kicked out by lower tier players in the GSL, as well as in any other tournament. BUT: This is still an uproar. If it wasn't, it would be norm and no one would talk about it. So yes, this could happen to Serral too (and also did before, for example at IEM 2023), but that still does not mean that he probably never would have won a GSL. So to get to the core of these thoughts... Even if Serral only won 2 or 3 GSL, it would make it utterly obvious that he could have won each format and he would outrank Maru even more on PT wins with top Korean participation. What argument would be left against Serral being the GOAT, if he won even 2 GSLs? And... Do you seriously believe that Serral would have never won a GSL looking at his records, dominance and overall statistics versus the players of GSL? Maru reaches the finals of Code S every 3.4 Seasons. I think you could expect a similar number from Serral. Similar yes, better probably too. His record has proven we could expect that much at worst. Even the most extreme cases like sOs who won an insane 3 WCs reached the Code S finals a couple times, and we know Serral has far superior achievements/winrate/dominance/H2H/etc. Had to make a few changes due to shoddy math (Maru makes the finals every 3.2 seasons) but the point stands. To add some context, 3.2 is a total aberration. Mvp is the only player to match Maru's mark (he made the finals every 3.2 seasons in an entirely different era of the game) You can insist that Serral would surpass Maru, but Maru's record is already lightyears above Rogue (6.5), Dark (6.4), soO (4.5), INnoVation (6.75), TY (6.25), Zest (6.0) (all of whom are roughly around 1 final appearance every 6 season), It would be unrealistic to expect anything much lower than 3.2. Even from Serral. But wouldn't it be more adequate to compare Maru's dominant years starting from 2018? Those would be 18 GSLs and Maru reached the finals 10 times, winning 7. That would be a final participation rate of 55%. These were also Serral's strongest years... so if he would have participated in GSL it would be rather reasonable to assume he would have won in that time too and even kicking Maru out at one of those 7 wins, even if he won not himself afterwards. Maru was plenty dominant before 2018. He won OSL and SSL which was tied for the most KIL titles during HotS (they were on the same level as Code S). He was best Korean Terran for the first half of 2014, but never had a shot at winning due to balance. He had the best Proleague season of all time in 2016 (he won mvp that year). He was rookie of the year in his first year with Jin Air and was one of the best Proleague players, period. This is why a lot of people point to 2013-2015 as the most competitive era. The definition of dominant was just different back then. Maru has a claim for best player of the period and he won a KIL once in every eight seasons he played. If I add in SSL/OSL to the Code S numbers he makes the finals once every three seasons. AKA his performances in Heart of the Swarm actually set him further apart from everyone else. I'm on board with Serral reaching the finals approximately once every three seasons and, thankfully, we have a good metric to get a sense of this. Serral has played in 14 World Championships in his career. He has reached the finals of four. That's once every 3.5 world championships. Lines up pretty well with what Maru has done and what I'd expect of Serral. "He was best Korean Terran for the first half of 2014, but never had a shot at winning due to balance." Are we considering balance now for GOATs? Or is this just an opinion separate from the articles' ranking criteria. "The definition of dominant was just different back then. Maru has a claim for best player of the period and he won a KIL once in every eight seasons he played." Just to entertain this point a bit, if you assume that that's what dominance looks like, then you can define 2 KIL wins during HotS to be dominant as you said. But that feels a bit backwards to me to define that as dominant, if someone was only able to win a couple tournaments out of many. Isn't dominant supposed to be... much more impressive than that? A clear cut above the other players? Rain also won 2 KIL during HotS. Meanwhile Taeja is winning a bunch of international weekenders and making lots of money that way. Life as well, but he also won 2 GSL and a WC (revoked). sOs won 3 WCs. All of these players' accomplishments during HotS were great. I'm not sure if I would call Maru "dominant". He is tied for the most KIL wins during HotS, sure, but not exactly above his peers in that regard. Dominance was not the best word choice (something in the vein of superiority or a catch all like "tier one player" fits better). It's fair to say, however, that he outperformed pretty much everyone outside of a group of ten or so player with which he was relatively even. Where he fell within that group is harder to figure out than the GOAT rankings, if I'm being honest. And, yes, balance actually was ridiculous in 2014. There are a large number of people who discredit Serral's achievements because Zerg was good (one of the stupidest things I've ever heard). Maru never won Code S in 2014, but you can't look at the top 16 of Season 1 and 2 in good faith and say there's nothing ridiculous going on as far as Terran representation. ![[image loading]](/staff/Mizenhauer/Season_1.jpg) ![[image loading]](/staff/Mizenhauer/Season_2.jpg) It's hard to know how much balance is weighted in this, there is mention of BL/Inf in WoL and Infested Terrans (LotV) and now this about Terran being underpowered vs. Protoss. How much does this affect Serral, Rogue and Dark in the ranking?
IMO it's better not to think about, or you would have to go into it all the way. For instance, and I mean this in earnest, you could argue that from 2018 Protoss have been non-existence, and so this actually hugely impacts the integrity of this time. How competitive is it rly, when a 3rd of the player base is made irrelevant barring a short time on the last few patches by Blizzard, before the cabal seized control. Then we also have the #4 MVP which is strange when he only dominated a 1 year period and one where Terran was strongest and benefiting from being a TvT specialist. Rain only fairing well in the Protoss golden age etc..
On March 23 2024 04:12 Balnazza wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2024 01:25 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 23 2024 01:09 Balnazza wrote:On March 23 2024 00:49 lokol4890 wrote:On March 23 2024 00:28 Smorrie wrote: Arguments are jumping left and right, going from perceived skill, results, level of domination, tournament results, balance & of course a great deal of favoritism.
The main arguments appear to be revolving around Serral not playing in the most competitive environment & lacking GSL titles.
However, excluding Serral's lack of GSL participation, wherever he has been competing he's been the most dominant player for the last 6 years by far. He also played Maru plenty of times with an 80% win rate & is sporting a 70%+ win rate vs the best players in GSL. Won tournaments with GSL champion participation. Wherever Serral competes, he's as dominant as Flash in BW. In his incredible 20-1 Katowice run he's shown to be the best player out there, at the very least at this moment. Being the current best player of course is not equivalent to carrying the GOAT crown.
There are several points that could be made to justify Serral's lack of presence in GSL & the fact that Maru potentially wouldn't have been able to achieve similar results if Serral did participate in GSL. In the end this however is all hypothetically speaking and will never happen.
So the question is; what are the requirements that would crown Serral as the (majorly) undisputed GOAT? Or is this an impossible feat. without GSL participation?
Having a hard time believing serral was "the most dominant player for the last 6 years by far" when soO won iem, Innovation won wesg and Dark won wcs in 2019; Rogue won iem in 2020; Reynor won iem in 2021; and Reynor won G8 in 2023. Increase the search beyond just iem, wesg, and G8 and you get even more championships from maru and the other zergs not named serral. Also having a hard time with the serral/Flash equivalence. Flash wasn't propped by racial balance his whole career (shown by Flash dominating regardless of his terran counterparts). Bringing Flash into the equation only helps maru's case (consistently at the top regardless of how other terrans have performed, and sick proleague scores) E: and let's not forget that when maru bopped serral in wesg very soon after terran got nerfed Serral won 24 Liquipedia-rated Premier events since 2018. Just for comparison, that is more than Marus finals appearances (not wins) in LotV (21, 11 wins, 10 losses). Even if you combine the Premier wins of the next two most succesful players in LotV (Rogue and Maru) it still doesn't catch up to Serral. With that, Serral outperforms every other player in the history of this game, including those who have played all three iterations, by a landslide. So while you might argue about the competitive value of tournaments since whatever arbitrary line you might want to draw, if you ask "who was the most dominant player in the last six years" this numbers alone tell you "Serral" without competition. Yes, of course, he had stretches of winning less. Yes, of course, other players have won big tournaments. But to go back to Flash: It is not like he won every OSL and MSL ever, he actually had fair stretches where he didn't win neither. But going by your logic, you are ready to discard the highest winning player of the last six years because he didn't win always everything and then choose the guy who didn't win half of the other players titles instead? Not to mention the clear difference in World Championship titles in the exact same timespan. Usually when people put Maru ahead of Serral, it is because of Marus longer career and Proleague results. But if you seriously want to argue the best player of LotV/the last six years...c'mon And 9 of those wins came in region locked events Maru couldn't play in. You could just compare the numbers from events in which they both participated (Serral again holds the lead), but it's easier to use shoddy methods to support your narrative. No, I used those numbers because I actually have those numbers at hand, since I keep a record of Premier events finals participations. If you have a problem with the European Regional Finals being classified as "Premier events", please take that up with the Liquipedia-Admins. But then again, going by Prizepool alone it would make much more sense to strike GSL out of that Tier, but anyway. Ppl totally dismiss the WCS titles which is not fair, because let's say that Serral didn't manage to win a single one, then that would absolutely be used against him! I think the HSCs that he won, can almost entirely be dismissed because these were invite tournaments, unlike many other HSCs. These tournaments were what put Serral as the favourite to win the very first GSL vs. the World that he entered. Rightly you could say that he hadn't proven himself yet, but it was very evident to see in the level of play alone that he was playing at another level from even the Koreans.
On March 23 2024 06:41 Pentarp wrote: 7 GSLS.
The ONLY one in the entire world to have a G5L trophy. This is really the argument for Maru. If you see sc2 as an extension of sc1 and thus have this belief that in historical context all that matters are Korean preparation based tournaments, then yes, he can be #1 and Serral was never even in the race to begin with. If your sense of history starts from sc2, then weekend style tournaments would probably be seen as the common style tournament and thus, Korean tournaments should not be put on a pedestal.
On March 24 2024 09:23 Amoyu7 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 23 2024 21:56 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 23 2024 21:23 jack_less wrote:On March 23 2024 20:31 Mizenhauer wrote:On March 23 2024 20:25 Comedy wrote:On March 23 2024 16:32 goldensail wrote:On March 23 2024 07:30 Poopi wrote: The most crazy thing though imo is the 4 GSL in a row, that’s a crazy feat especially as early as 2018-2019 where Terran wasn’t particularly strong. The most done in a row was 2, which is already impressive given how cut throat GSL was back in the days. TY was almost able to do three in a row but he did 2 in a year which is already a good feat, and even then he was relatively lucky to do it in 2020 short after Zerg nerfs / lots of TvT his best match-up.
The fact that every group (even those that are not labeled as group of death) in the GSL could eliminate a WC / GSL champion, like it happened to Rogue and so many others (or Reynor after he won WC…), is what makes the 4 victories in a row incredible.
Not only that, but Maru had to clutch a 4-3 victory against TvT master TY (present in this GOAT list at a very respectable spot) in an epic finals to even do 3 in a row. And his 4th in a row was also impressive, because Classic was just murdering terrans left and right in this period iirc, with like 16w-1l record in the matchup.
But watching him play Terran like Zerg was mesmerizing and remind you why he was called the Fourth Race. ive never heard anyone call maru the fourth race. is this just completly made up? He got the nickname in 2014 because Terran was dogshit. It's because of this nickname and his success relative to other Terrans that SSL used the "Y the last man" as his image for Season 3 of SSL in 2015. maru is called "Fourth Race". but what is Serral called? i think it starts with "go" and ends with " at". i just can't figure it out. maybe someone knows.  Liquipedia lists the following monikers for Serral: The Finnisher, Finnish Phenom, The Night King and Lord of The Curcuit, all of which are demonstrably worse and less creative than the fourth race. I second the opinion that Serral's nickname absolutely sucks. I died a little inside every time I heard "The Finnisher" Chinese sc2 fans had a fantastic nickname for Serral tho: "The Overmind". Because they think Serral's scouting, control and multitasking are so good it feels like he's just directly controlling every Zerg units with shared hivemind like the Overmind itself. Every time Serral got defeated and comeback stronger, they joke that the Overmind was just temporarily back to the Evolve Chamber. It should be the default nickname for Serral. The finnish phenom is a great name, but it belongs to Welmu. I like Serral Angel.
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