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Mexico2170 Posts
How much do you think luck influences a random (arbitrary) ladder game?
Luck is part of life, and thus it has an effect on everything, including ladder games. We have seen how even people like Artosis mention that cheese is very strong in BO1 due to this reason. However we also know that the better you are the more you can reduce the impact of luck in a game (if you have better map control, you can be more prepared for an atack and not be caught out of position, for example).
However it's undeniable that somethings circumstantial things can have a big impact on a game, even if through skill you prepare for it. A perfect example is if you are scouting for a proxy, and miss it by an inch. You did everything right, you scouted, and no ammount of skill would have changed that outcome.
There's also the theory that if the matchamaking is doing it's job correctly and putting you against people of a similar skill level, the result of the match in theory should be random (both players have 50% chance of winning, aka the the result will be random). And if it's random you could say it was luck to win or lose that specific game. So, in a way you could say every ladder game, if the sistem is perfect, should be decided by luck, wouldn't you think?
So I want to know about the player's perception. What percent of games do you believe are decided on luck?
Poll: What percentace of games are decided on luck?0-10% (62) 53% 11-20% (24) 21% 21-30% (11) 9% 31-40% (9) 8% 41-50% (2) 2% 51-60% (1) 1% 61-70% (0) 0% 71-80% (0) 0% 81-90% (2) 2% 91-100% (6) 5% 117 total votes Your vote: What percentace of games are decided on luck? (Vote): 0-10%
(Vote): 11-20%
(Vote): 21-30%
(Vote): 31-40%
(Vote): 41-50%
(Vote): 51-60%
(Vote): 61-70%
(Vote): 71-80%
(Vote): 81-90%
(Vote): 91-100%
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I think it's super hard to even define what "luck" is in SC2 and what isn't.
If a Widow Mine hits 15 of my Banelings it isn't lucky from my opponent, I just micro'd poorly.
If I scout a hidden dark-shrine because I feel like there's something fishy I just had a good feeling.
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Mexico2170 Posts
I'd say luck is either things outside of your control, or things that were on you control and you prepared for it, but due to circumstance it went sideways. A few examples:
Scouting a drop with your own drop. Completely circumstantial.
Sending a worker to scout for proxies and missing the enemy worker or the actual proxy by an inch. You scouted. You did everything right. You cannot scout the whole map. No ammount of skill would have made you scout it.
Scouting last in a 4 player map vs a player who scouted first and is rushing you.
Build order wins like opening CC first vs 12 pool.
Weird pathing or other bugs. For example I lost a game about amonth ago where I knew the enemy was making a 1 base nydus, preapred for it, literally saw it the moment they planted it and inmediately sent my probes and army but it was placed in a weird place in the map and the probes kind of glitched and went all on one side and got stuck. I inmediately moved them manually but that extra seccond was enough for the nydus to finish and for me to lose. I say that's luck because i literally did everything right, and yet due to a situation outside of my control, as it was impossible to predict the probes would behave in that way, I lost.
There's also the "outside" stuff. Like your internet going out, your computer freezing for a frame just when an engage starts, enemy having to leave the game, etc.
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Northern Ireland25875 Posts
There are other problems introduced of course but more 3/4 player maps might make the ladder less aggravating in this regard.
There are tons of players who are just bad at the game who will execute blind cheeses all the time and they guarantee they’ll hit because they know your spawn.
Is it luck if I miss a proxy spot in a game? Or is it bad scouting?
Playing vs random, which I think is silly given how different openers are I think introduces a bit much variance. Openers can be so radically different and all. Probably less of a deal now than in WoL, where a non-FFE build sucked ass against Zerg for many periods, but obviously a FFE sucks against Toss and Terran.
Ultimately I’m ok sucking up the occasional stupid loss, it’s still stupid, it’s no big deal but I’d rather it was less of a thing.
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Just food for thoughts, I don't think build order wins are luck based. Its two definite decisions leading to a result, its not like the openers were randomly selected, If you play a build you know counters the standard meta build and you win a lot of games because of it, is it luck? Obviously its not actual in game starcraft 2 skills but I wouldn't call it luck either, similar to how lag isn't luck its bad internet.
I think overlord vision range can lead to some early game lucky sightings, or some widow mine hits were neither player micros. I think in starcraft 2 very very few things are luck based, sure there are a lot of "none macro/micro skill factors" but not necessarily luck as in the kind were you flip a coin and see how it goes without any prior knowledge or outside influence.
Like your proxy example is most defintely not luck, the proxier puts a building to hide it maybe factoring in current meta proxy locations and you search for it knowing were they are usually put. If you find it or not is not a coin toss, its a result of conscious decisions between you are your opponent. Its an example of something that appears to be only luck but in fact is so´much more, not saying its a good thing or a fun thing.
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Overall, like 10% or less, but specifically within your MMR range, definitely at least 20% or so. Against someone in your MMR range, a build order loss SHOULD equal a loss. That's not always how it turns out, but hypothetically if your opponent really is your equal it should be curtains.
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I think there's another type of "luck" that happens almost every game for players below, say, GM, which is the way your skill-set matches up against your opponent. Every player has strengths and weaknesses, and sometimes you only face opponents whose strengths perfectly align with your weaknesses or vice versa. Maybe your macro TvZ is really strong but your early defence is weak and you hit 5 roach all-ins in a row. Maybe you've been practising your void ray all-in defence and then all of the Protosses you face are playing Nexus first twilight builds. Or the opposite: you've been practising holding your 4th base against tank pushes in ZvT, and all of the Terrans you face do exactly that.
On the one hand it's not "luck", in the sense that you have total control over the things that are causing you to lose. But on the other hand, it's a major reason why sometimes you log in and lose 9 out of 10 games, and other days you log in and win 12 in a row. Same player, playing equally as well, just luck of the draw in terms of who they get matched up with.
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On October 05 2021 05:51 [Phantom] wrote:
I'd say luck is either things outside of your control, or things that were on you control and you prepared for it, but due to circumstance it went sideways. A few examples:
Sending a worker to scout for proxies and missing the enemy worker or the actual proxy by an inch. You scouted. You did everything right. You cannot scout the whole map. No ammount of skill would have made you scout it.
Thats not quite true higher skill could help you scout more thoroughly by staying more on top of actively controlling where the worker scouts as you still execute your build order properly. Even if you can't scout the whole map you could increase your chances of finding it.
Anyway definitely luck only dictates the outcome of 0-10% of games without a doubt. Its not even really questionable... a skilled enough player is just gonna crush everyone luck never allows a gold league player to defeat a master player, there's no possible way luck can swing a game that hard. However this actually made me realize how much luck determines the outcome depends how equally matched the players are so the question isn't really answerable. The more equally matched the players are the more likely luck will shift the outcome of the game.
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On October 05 2021 03:28 [Phantom] wrote:
There's also the theory that if the matchamaking is doing it's job correctly and putting you against people of a similar skill level, the result of the match in theory should be random (both players have 50% chance of winning, aka the the result will be random). And if it's random you could say it was luck to win or lose that specific game. So, in a way you could say every ladder game, if the sistem is perfect, should be decided by luck, wouldn't you think?
Very not sure that this is the way to look at statistics. Statistics usually doesn't predict an individual event, it only works if you go the distance.
Also, 50% chance doesn't necessarily mean randomness (and a random outcome may not have 50% probability, just think of rolling exactly 6 on a common die). It just means that on average, the different factors--both luck and skill--combine to produce 50% success.
In case of ladder, the 50% should be across all opponents you may match with. If I queue into a cannon rusher I may well lose 10 in a row against them (at which point we'll no longer match but ignore that for a moment); then they go back into the ladder pool and run into someone who doesn't panic pull all their workers, and lose that MMR they took off me. On the other hand, I might happen to be good against the race/strat that third person plays, win some of my points off them, and we're all three back where we started.
Wait, why am I trying to explain rock-paper-scissors?.. I'm sure you get my point already.
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Between equal players I'd say that luck does matter in smaller things that define some things in games and sometimes are game ending information. None of these things are RNG or anything like that, but it's just a matter of "were you watching this at X time" or an army movement that is made at a bad timing. These are technically cases of who made the bigger mistake/more mistakes, but with equal players its just a matter of "who does it happen to this time". It can all be negated with getting better but in singular games there is some effect.
Between unequal players it doesnt really matter because the better player is better and with their skill advantage should be able to win most of the time.
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Czech Republic12129 Posts
IMO on the ladder, especially for the majority, luck is the big factor. You don't know who you play as you don't play these people often(unlike the top few), you don't know if they're just bad or doing something crazy, you can lose to being unlucky(guessed wrong all in). Or win because you scouted in the lucky direction (or your opponent was stupid and placed the proxy spire on the way everybody sends a hallucinated phoenix  ). In the end it's all about what we define as luck =)
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If you ignore the "luck" in matching someone appropriate to your level, I would say it varies on your preferred build, but that variance itself is rather small. Then again at some point managing the incidence of "luck" is also part of skill especially in terms of happening to scout the right information can be counted as part of skill. An individual game can seemingly be won or lost by luck at certain moments but over the course of many games, a player who is conistently "luckier" than another player is more skilled at managing that incidence of what appears to be "luck".
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On October 05 2021 03:28 [Phantom] wrote:
However it's undeniable that somethings circumstantial things can have a big impact on a game, even if through skill you prepare for it. A perfect example is if you are scouting for a proxy, and miss it by an inch. You did everything right, you scouted, and no ammount of skill would have changed that outcome.
I think this is a really clear example of something which is not luck in my mind - if you know the likely locations of proxies, you can scout for them, and if you "miss it by an inch" then either you've not scouted the right place or the opponent has made the decision (consciously or not) to put it in a different place from where it would usually go. If you scouted beyond the optimal locations, you would have found it, so the opponent has strategically outplayed you by putting it somewhere else (whereas if you didn't scout at all, you'd have taken the strategic advantage in that exchange because the opponent puts the proxy in a suboptimal spot).
Either way, there wasn't any luck or dice roll there, it was about the decisions players made and strategic expectations about where that proxy would be.
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On October 05 2021 04:58 watchlulu wrote:
I think it's super hard to even define what "luck" is in SC2 and what isn't.
If a Widow Mine hits 15 of my Banelings it isn't lucky from my opponent, I just micro'd poorly.
If I scout a hidden dark-shrine because I feel like there's something fishy I just had a good feeling.
Your widow mine example: what if suddenly someone called you by phone? Despite not answering, ring sound distracted you enough for widow mine to hit 15 of your banelings.
Scouting proxy: sometimes you just know there's proxy without having "a good feeling", e.g. you see too few units or you see gas 1st and no barracks.
Or, if we make this is a 1vs1 bronze example. What if one opponent masses voids, while the other one masses hydralisks without either player scouting the other. Is the hydralisk guy more skilled? No, I'd say in this case it's pure luck/coincidence.
So what's luck then? In my opinion, there is a lot of luck in sc2, just like a lot of games, more so in fast paced games where a split-second decision could be key. What makes the difference is high level players tend to recognise signs better and work to reduce risk (thus reducing "luck factors"), which is the case when they scout properly and react properly. So you leave less to chance (luck). Also, their practice helps them get familiar with certain playstyles so they can react better & faster, so not leaving it to luck (random unit combo vs something).
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On October 06 2021 02:55 deacon.frost wrote:IMO on the ladder, especially for the majority, luck is the big factor. You don't know who you play as you don't play these people often(unlike the top few), you don't know if they're just bad or doing something crazy, you can lose to being unlucky(guessed wrong all in). Or win because you scouted in the lucky direction (or your opponent was stupid and placed the proxy spire on the way everybody sends a hallucinated phoenix ). In the end it's all about what we define as luck =)
The huge problem with your argument is the claim that "luck is THE big factor." It can be a big factor sometimes, but in general? No. Skill is really effective at neutralizing/minimizing effects of luck which is why I said above that it depends how closely matched the players are. The more similarly skilled the players are the more impact luck is gonna have on the results... But when a player is much better than another luck is rarely gonna help the inferior player win. And if the skill gap is too large luck will literally never allow the other player to win.
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Mexico2170 Posts
On October 06 2021 19:13 Yonnua wrote:Show nested quote +On October 05 2021 03:28 [Phantom] wrote:
However it's undeniable that somethings circumstantial things can have a big impact on a game, even if through skill you prepare for it. A perfect example is if you are scouting for a proxy, and miss it by an inch. You did everything right, you scouted, and no ammount of skill would have changed that outcome.
I think this is a really clear example of something which is not luck in my mind - if you know the likely locations of proxies, you can scout for them, and if you "miss it by an inch" then either you've not scouted the right place or the opponent has made the decision (consciously or not) to put it in a different place from where it would usually go. If you scouted beyond the optimal locations, you would have found it, so the opponent has strategically outplayed you by putting it somewhere else (whereas if you didn't scout at all, you'd have taken the strategic advantage in that exchange because the opponent puts the proxy in a suboptimal spot). Either way, there wasn't any luck or dice roll there, it was about the decisions players made and strategic expectations about where that proxy would be.
But the thing is you can't scout all the map. Well, you can but it would take a long time. So if you decide to scout all the possible positions on the right and the proxy was left you could be in trouble.So you scout by going to different parts of the map where the proxy likely could be. But it would be possible to scout and miss it. There have been many GSL games where a worker gets literally within an inch of a dark shrine, or barracks, but miss it barely. Like literally if the worker had been half a square to the right it would have been within vision. The (pro) player knew the Proxy was a possibility, he was even skilled and knowleable enough to know that was one ofthe likely areas where it could be, he scouted there and missed it by an inch. I don't think that's a conscious decition or something he could have controlled.
There are also many all ins that look similar but are difficult to scout or the scout is negated. Then you are playing blind. though I guess negating the scout could be seen as skillful, but at certain points a scout might not literally be available so you need to make educated guesses, which could turn out to be wrong. After all no starcraft 2 game is played in "perfect" information.
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On October 07 2021 02:48 [Phantom] wrote:
After all no starcraft 2 game is played in "perfect" information.
But working with limited information is a measure of skill, not luck determining the outcome.
Players aren't putting their buildings in random locations at the highest level, they're choosing where to put them, and many of the times in GSL that a player "just missed" scouting something, it was indeed a conscious decision to move the hidden building just back a bit from its usual location, or a conscious decision by the scouting player to not scout as far as usual.
Even if that wasn't a conscious decision in every case, it still wasn't a factor of luck, because it was an action by the player that determined it, not random chance.
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On October 08 2021 08:27 Yonnua wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2021 02:48 [Phantom] wrote:
After all no starcraft 2 game is played in "perfect" information. But working with limited information is a measure of skill, not luck determining the outcome. Players aren't putting their buildings in random locations at the highest level, they're choosing where to put them, and many of the times in GSL that a player "just missed" scouting something, it was indeed a conscious decision to move the hidden building just back a bit from its usual location, or a conscious decision by the scouting player to not scout as far as usual. Even if that wasn't a conscious decision in every case, it still wasn't a factor of luck, because it was an action by the player that determined it, not random chance.
May I interest you in a game of skill? I'll hide a small prize in your room and you have 20 seconds to find it. Because I had to take an action to place it and you have to take actions to choose where to look, it therefor involves no element of chance right?
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On October 08 2021 08:27 Yonnua wrote:Show nested quote +On October 07 2021 02:48 [Phantom] wrote:
After all no starcraft 2 game is played in "perfect" information. But working with limited information is a measure of skill, not luck determining the outcome. Players aren't putting their buildings in random locations at the highest level, they're choosing where to put them, and many of the times in GSL that a player "just missed" scouting something, it was indeed a conscious decision to move the hidden building just back a bit from its usual location, or a conscious decision by the scouting player to not scout as far as usual. Even if that wasn't a conscious decision in every case, it still wasn't a factor of luck, because it was an action by the player that determined it, not random chance.
Proxy and finding proxy is determined by player's decisions, but those decisions are made mostly based on luck because there's limited time and information. You won't have enough time to cover all of the suspected spot, so luck is a big factor to determine whether it is found in time.
Same can be said to rock, paper, scissor, result is based on player's decision, but the decision is mostly based on luck, because there's not enough information to rationalized it.
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On October 08 2021 10:05 IMSupervisor wrote:Show nested quote +On October 08 2021 08:27 Yonnua wrote:On October 07 2021 02:48 [Phantom] wrote:
After all no starcraft 2 game is played in "perfect" information. But working with limited information is a measure of skill, not luck determining the outcome. Players aren't putting their buildings in random locations at the highest level, they're choosing where to put them, and many of the times in GSL that a player "just missed" scouting something, it was indeed a conscious decision to move the hidden building just back a bit from its usual location, or a conscious decision by the scouting player to not scout as far as usual. Even if that wasn't a conscious decision in every case, it still wasn't a factor of luck, because it was an action by the player that determined it, not random chance. May I interest you in a game of skill? I'll hide a small prize in your room and you have 20 seconds to find it. Because I had to take an action to place it and you have to take actions to choose where to look, it therefor involves no element of chance right?
That's a pretty ridiculous analogy and I think you know it. If we played the game literally millions of times over the course of 11 years, then yes there would be a very clear set of strategies and counter-strategies to base it on.
I think this thread just shows people have very little idea what 'luck' is and have bought their own excuses for when they don't win on ladder.
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EPT
