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Northern Ireland16440 Posts
On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree
We’re literally talking ladder, not the innate game sense of a player of the calibre of Taeja, who IMO is in the top 5 of best players to touch the game, but in most other people’s estimation at least 15-20
Like cool your ‘better decision’ is to blind cheese on a 2 player map where you know where I spawn, and if my scouting misses it you win.
Cool, let’s not pretend there aren’t players who just coinflip every single game on ladder, especially when spawning locations are already known.
Like it’s ridiculous every other response is some ‘git gud’ variant, but hey let’s not question the chops of people who just blind cheese every single game.
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Mexico1842 Posts
On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree
I never said SC2 was completely luck based though, I agree it isn't. I don't agree it's not a big factor though, specially in ladder games.
As you say skill has a big influence. Most influence even, but that doesn't mean the better player wins all the time. Even though I was focusing on ladder, you can see it in pro games too. Maru is way better than Armani, right? Yet he has dropped games to him.
Maru is way better than any player he will face on ladder that's not a pro right? And yet he doesn't have 100% Winrate on ladder either.
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On October 12 2021 08:03 WombaT wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree We’re literally talking ladder, not the innate game sense of a player of the calibre of Taeja, who IMO is in the top 5 of best players to touch the game, but in most other people’s estimation at least 15-20 Like cool your ‘better decision’ is to blind cheese on a 2 player map where you know where I spawn, and if my scouting misses it you win. Cool, let’s not pretend there aren’t players who just coinflip every single game on ladder, especially when spawning locations are already known. Like it’s ridiculous every other response is some ‘git gud’ variant, but hey let’s not question the chops of people who just blind cheese every single game.
Taeja is playing the same game we are, sc2 played by Taeja and sc2 played us doesn't have different luck factors. Thats like saying soccer in low level has tons of luck while soccer in high level has no luck. If one person is a god proves its not luck, it is skill. If it looks like luck but some people win consistently that is a very big hint that it isn't luck, they just see something you don't which is a skill.
It all depends how you define skill, is all aspects of starcraft 2 is equal in value than yes cheeser that wins are more skilled then you. But if you value macro/micro more than strategic decisions obviously you are probably more skilled in those avenues of the game.
In most sports there are risky plays, that will backfire hugely if the bet doesn't pay off. Does that mean all traditional sports are luck based? Because there are different ways/strategies to play games, some play like robots systematically and intellectually sound while others play wild and risky. No matter what the outcome blaming luck in any sport says more about your outlook than anything else.
On October 12 2021 13:38 [Phantom] wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree I never said SC2 was completely luck based though, I agree it isn't. I don't agree it's not a big factor though, specially in ladder games. As you say skill has a big influence. Most influence even, but that doesn't mean the better player wins all the time. Even though I was focusing on ladder, you can see it in pro games too. Maru is way better than Armani, right? Yet he has dropped games to him. Maru is way better than any player he will face on ladder that's not a pro right? And yet he doesn't have 100% Winrate on ladder either.
Well almost all pro-team/pro in any sport no matter how dominant have lost to an underdog, does that mean all traditional sports are luck based by a big factor? Losing to lesser players/teams happens all over the world all the time in literally every single sport, if you claim to be objective then you would need to agree that all sports are luck based.
Like many others have written managing risk is a skill, and that is true for all sports. Is this pass in soccer too risky for the possible outcome or is it worth it? All games have some kind of innate risk taking that is part of the game, that doesn't mean you can blame luck when you lose. Well if that guy didn't intercept my pass we would have won, this game is all luck
EDIT
I will add that these theoretical ladder games in a vacuum doesn't exist. When you choose your build you can factor in what league you are in, what the meta is and so on. If you choose to do a proxy void ray all in two weeks after uThermal posted a popular guide on how to counter that cheese when you lose you cant really blame your bad luck. If I go greedy CC first build and die to early aggression I can't blame bad luck. Just like in pro play there is always factor to consider when choosing your build, in some leagues its literally 60% cheeses on ladder, if you go greedy and lose its on you.
The question I want to ask you is what is your goal with your ladder play? If its winning every single game/reducing risk/crushing cheese then there are builds for you to choose that lets you be safe but you will be behind against economic openers. If your goal to is to climb the ladder and win 50+% of your games then choosing a bit risker openings knowing you might lose to cheese is an option. An option you choose willingly risking losses to some strategies, that is not your bad luck, you are risking loss against cheese to get ahead against players that are safe. When you get the short end of the stick you blame luck and yet when you win partly due to a build order advantage you call it skill?
Also it is easy to fall for the trap of seeing the result of games being luck, looking at Maru vs Armani on aligulac for example. There is 17% chance for Armani to win against Maru, maybe you think "wow if Armani wins he got lucky" but thats not how chance works, it only shows the likelihood for that to happen not indicating that its luck. Maru isn't equally skilled all the time, he might sleep bad, be emotionally vulnerable, just have a bad day and face Armani when he is on his game and at that point Armani winning can mean he is better than Maru that day. Pro gamers aren't robots, they aren't the same equally skilled players all the time, form varies a lot, that is not luck that is just life.
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Czech Republic11472 Posts
On October 12 2021 18:56 Shuffleblade wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2021 08:03 WombaT wrote:On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree We’re literally talking ladder, not the innate game sense of a player of the calibre of Taeja, who IMO is in the top 5 of best players to touch the game, but in most other people’s estimation at least 15-20 Like cool your ‘better decision’ is to blind cheese on a 2 player map where you know where I spawn, and if my scouting misses it you win. Cool, let’s not pretend there aren’t players who just coinflip every single game on ladder, especially when spawning locations are already known. Like it’s ridiculous every other response is some ‘git gud’ variant, but hey let’s not question the chops of people who just blind cheese every single game. Taeja is playing the same game we are, sc2 played by Taeja and sc2 played us doesn't have different luck factors. Thats like saying soccer in low level has tons of luck while soccer in high level has no luck. If one person is a god proves its not luck, it is skill. If it looks like luck but some people win consistently that is a very big hint that it isn't luck, they just see something you don't which is a skill. It all depends how you define skill, is all aspects of starcraft 2 is equal in value than yes cheeser that wins are more skilled then you. But if you value macro/micro more than strategic decisions obviously you are probably more skilled in those avenues of the game. In most sports there are risky plays, that will backfire hugely if the bet doesn't pay off. Does that mean all traditional sports are luck based? Because there are different ways/strategies to play games, some play like robots systematically and intellectually sound while others play wild and risky. No matter what the outcome blaming luck in any sport says more about your outlook than anything else. Show nested quote +On October 12 2021 13:38 [Phantom] wrote:On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree I never said SC2 was completely luck based though, I agree it isn't. I don't agree it's not a big factor though, specially in ladder games. As you say skill has a big influence. Most influence even, but that doesn't mean the better player wins all the time. Even though I was focusing on ladder, you can see it in pro games too. Maru is way better than Armani, right? Yet he has dropped games to him. Maru is way better than any player he will face on ladder that's not a pro right? And yet he doesn't have 100% Winrate on ladder either. Well almost all pro-team/pro in any sport no matter how dominant have lost to an underdog, does that mean all traditional sports are luck based by a big factor? Losing to lesser players/teams happens all over the world all the time in literally every single sport, if you claim to be objective then you would need to agree that all sports are luck based. Like many others have written managing risk is a skill, and that is true for all sports. Is this pass in soccer too risky for the possible outcome or is it worth it? All games have some kind of innate risk taking that is part of the game, that doesn't mean you can blame luck when you lose. Well if that guy didn't intercept my pass we would have won, this game is all luck EDIT I will add that these theoretical ladder games in a vacuum doesn't exist. When you choose your build you can factor in what league you are in, what the meta is and so on. If you choose to do a proxy void ray all in two weeks after uThermal posted a popular guide on how to counter that cheese when you lose you cant really blame your bad luck. If I go greedy CC first build and die to early aggression I can't blame bad luck. Just like in pro play there is always factor to consider when choosing your build, in some leagues its literally 60% cheeses on ladder, if you go greedy and lose its on you. The question I want to ask you is what is your goal with your ladder play? If its winning every single game/reducing risk/crushing cheese then there are builds for you to choose that lets you be safe but you will be behind against economic openers. If your goal to is to climb the ladder and win 50+% of your games then choosing a bit risker openings knowing you might lose to cheese is an option. An option you choose willingly risking losses to some strategies, that is not your bad luck, you are risking loss against cheese to get ahead against players that are safe. When you get the short end of the stick you blame luck and yet when you win partly due to a build order advantage you call it skill? Also it is easy to fall for the trap of seeing the result of games being luck, looking at Maru vs Armani on aligulac for example. There is 17% chance for Armani to win against Maru, maybe you think "wow if Armani wins he got lucky" but thats not how chance works, it only shows the likelihood for that to happen not indicating that its luck. Maru isn't equally skilled all the time, he might sleep bad, be emotionally vulnerable, just have a bad day and face Armani when he is on his game and at that point Armani winning can mean he is better than Maru that day. Pro gamers aren't robots, they aren't the same equally skilled players all the time, form varies a lot, that is not luck that is just life.
Uh, yeah, the level you play differs in the luck factor?
Let's take the football. If I kick the ball I know where I want it to go but not every time it goes there. IF a pro kicks the ball, it goes there more often. With my poorer kicking technique I give more chaos into the game thus enforcing more luck - e.g. scoring from an impossible angle because my cross went into the goal.
The better you are the less luck can be included in your game. Have you like ever seen low level football vs a pro match?
When I want to score from a half I have to hope for a lucky kick, when a pro player wants to score from a half they will hit the goal. Because they know what they're doing while I'm just bad and as such rely on luck.
The only difference is that I accept my fate and when I try to score from an impossible position or in an impossible way at least I aknowledge I try to get a lucky score. While in SC2 everybody is a pro and everybody does their 2-1-1. 3 minutes later. With zerg units.
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On October 12 2021 22:04 deacon.frost wrote:Show nested quote +On October 12 2021 18:56 Shuffleblade wrote:On October 12 2021 08:03 WombaT wrote:On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree We’re literally talking ladder, not the innate game sense of a player of the calibre of Taeja, who IMO is in the top 5 of best players to touch the game, but in most other people’s estimation at least 15-20 Like cool your ‘better decision’ is to blind cheese on a 2 player map where you know where I spawn, and if my scouting misses it you win. Cool, let’s not pretend there aren’t players who just coinflip every single game on ladder, especially when spawning locations are already known. Like it’s ridiculous every other response is some ‘git gud’ variant, but hey let’s not question the chops of people who just blind cheese every single game. Taeja is playing the same game we are, sc2 played by Taeja and sc2 played us doesn't have different luck factors. Thats like saying soccer in low level has tons of luck while soccer in high level has no luck. If one person is a god proves its not luck, it is skill. If it looks like luck but some people win consistently that is a very big hint that it isn't luck, they just see something you don't which is a skill. It all depends how you define skill, is all aspects of starcraft 2 is equal in value than yes cheeser that wins are more skilled then you. But if you value macro/micro more than strategic decisions obviously you are probably more skilled in those avenues of the game. In most sports there are risky plays, that will backfire hugely if the bet doesn't pay off. Does that mean all traditional sports are luck based? Because there are different ways/strategies to play games, some play like robots systematically and intellectually sound while others play wild and risky. No matter what the outcome blaming luck in any sport says more about your outlook than anything else. On October 12 2021 13:38 [Phantom] wrote:On October 12 2021 07:31 Shuffleblade wrote:On October 12 2021 05:22 [Phantom] wrote:
Honestly the takeway for me is there a lot of people here that believe that any person with hard work can be a famous billionare and if you aren't you haven't worked hard enough.
Because if they truly believe luck only influences 0-10 percent of such a complex game like starcraft, SPECIFICALLY in a Best of 1 scenario, agaisn't a random player on a random race on a random map on random external conditions, then they must apply that logic to the rest of their lifes, right?
Again, if you go outside and a bird shits on you, that's not luck according to them because you made the decition to go walk outside, you should get gud instead.
I think most people here think lucks means litterally RNG like the above person said, and that there must be defined chances (10% critical hit chance, 5%-20% critical hit damage, 3% chance of parrying etc), and while that is indeed luck, that's not at all the complete definition or spectrum. Like the poster above said what if it's a four player map and a build order win? There no explanation other than luck. And that doesn't mean your destiny is out of your control, or that you didn't make a concious decision to expand early and the enemy to rush, that did happen, but it doesn't mean luck was not involved, specially since you have no way of knowing what the enemy is doing. You tok a risk, and they did too, which has a certain ammount of chance of succeding and you could say that wether or not you got the "good chance" or the "bad" chance it was luck. And again you can micro or do this or that to alter the chance percentages, but not remove them completely. Its very interesting for me to come back to this thread to see so many argue my same point as me on how luck is a very small factor in sc2. From your perspective it might seem like a "blind" 6 pool, but its not random what build your opponent chooses its a planned strategy in a strategy game. As a comparison lets take basketball, I can dribble right or I can dribble left, if the opponent catches me I lose but if they go the wrong way I win is it luck? The strategy game starts before the match, by your defition me going CC first and losing would be bad luck, I would call that a bad strategy. If starcraft 2 was really filled with random luck factors then pro players wouldn't win consistently against lesser players. There is tons and tons of statistic that proves starcraft 2 is not luck based, if it was the pro scene and tournament results would be totally different, no player would be consistent. Your arguements about birds and IRL are blatant strawman arguements, no one here is saying that getting shit on by a bird is not bad luck. Are you fighting the bird in a one on one game about not getting shit on where you are strategically trying to outmaneouver eachother because if the answer is yes then you are in the wrong forum about the wrong game. Some people view everything that goes bad for them as bad luck, you got a disadvantage because of build orders, bad luck. You got flanked right when moving out with your army, bad luck, you were out of position when the drop came in bad luck, the enemy finished his upgrades before you bad luck. None of it is bad luck, he made better decisions than you, its just that you find that out now. Consider Taeja by what magic did he consistently magically make exactly the right moves to win without scouting? He is famous for his magical game sense that made him seem invincible, he read the flow of the game and the mind of his opponents like no other player has ever done and if you want to tell me that he just happend to be lucky 50 times in a row. Lets just agree to disagree I never said SC2 was completely luck based though, I agree it isn't. I don't agree it's not a big factor though, specially in ladder games. As you say skill has a big influence. Most influence even, but that doesn't mean the better player wins all the time. Even though I was focusing on ladder, you can see it in pro games too. Maru is way better than Armani, right? Yet he has dropped games to him. Maru is way better than any player he will face on ladder that's not a pro right? And yet he doesn't have 100% Winrate on ladder either. Well almost all pro-team/pro in any sport no matter how dominant have lost to an underdog, does that mean all traditional sports are luck based by a big factor? Losing to lesser players/teams happens all over the world all the time in literally every single sport, if you claim to be objective then you would need to agree that all sports are luck based. Like many others have written managing risk is a skill, and that is true for all sports. Is this pass in soccer too risky for the possible outcome or is it worth it? All games have some kind of innate risk taking that is part of the game, that doesn't mean you can blame luck when you lose. Well if that guy didn't intercept my pass we would have won, this game is all luck EDIT I will add that these theoretical ladder games in a vacuum doesn't exist. When you choose your build you can factor in what league you are in, what the meta is and so on. If you choose to do a proxy void ray all in two weeks after uThermal posted a popular guide on how to counter that cheese when you lose you cant really blame your bad luck. If I go greedy CC first build and die to early aggression I can't blame bad luck. Just like in pro play there is always factor to consider when choosing your build, in some leagues its literally 60% cheeses on ladder, if you go greedy and lose its on you. The question I want to ask you is what is your goal with your ladder play? If its winning every single game/reducing risk/crushing cheese then there are builds for you to choose that lets you be safe but you will be behind against economic openers. If your goal to is to climb the ladder and win 50+% of your games then choosing a bit risker openings knowing you might lose to cheese is an option. An option you choose willingly risking losses to some strategies, that is not your bad luck, you are risking loss against cheese to get ahead against players that are safe. When you get the short end of the stick you blame luck and yet when you win partly due to a build order advantage you call it skill? Also it is easy to fall for the trap of seeing the result of games being luck, looking at Maru vs Armani on aligulac for example. There is 17% chance for Armani to win against Maru, maybe you think "wow if Armani wins he got lucky" but thats not how chance works, it only shows the likelihood for that to happen not indicating that its luck. Maru isn't equally skilled all the time, he might sleep bad, be emotionally vulnerable, just have a bad day and face Armani when he is on his game and at that point Armani winning can mean he is better than Maru that day. Pro gamers aren't robots, they aren't the same equally skilled players all the time, form varies a lot, that is not luck that is just life. Uh, yeah, the level you play differs in the luck factor? Let's take the football. If I kick the ball I know where I want it to go but not every time it goes there. IF a pro kicks the ball, it goes there more often. With my poorer kicking technique I give more chaos into the game thus enforcing more luck - e.g. scoring from an impossible angle because my cross went into the goal. The better you are the less luck can be included in your game. Have you like ever seen low level football vs a pro match? When I want to score from a half I have to hope for a lucky kick, when a pro player wants to score from a half they will hit the goal. Because they know what they're doing while I'm just bad and as such rely on luck. The only difference is that I accept my fate and when I try to score from an impossible position or in an impossible way at least I aknowledge I try to get a lucky score. While in SC2 everybody is a pro and everybody does their 2-1-1. 3 minutes later. With zerg units.
Wow we have a different outlook on life.
There is always a chance you make a bad kick or a good kick no matter your skill level and they are good or bad because of your skill not because of luck. Obviously higher skilled players will make less bad shots. From your perspective everything in your life must be luck, the better you are at driving a car the less risk you get unlucky and crash into someone else. I mean its not like that is your fault or anything, totally just bad luck. Same with doing something well, practising a song on the guitar for weeks and when you finally make it you can exclude "shit I cant believe I actually did it thats so lucky!"...
I can see that some people view life like that, everything that has a variance of happening is luck but its very different from how I look at life
To be clear your example of kicking a ball has 0 luck variety in my opinion, it depends on how you kick it. Not on an outside factor like luck, if you kick it good or bad is 100% up to you, your control, your skill and so on. Thats why someone can get good at sports, because its not luck
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You don't see the impact of luck when kicking a football or getting in a car accident? The mud on the boots affecting balance and weights, the imperfections of the football, as well as diffeernt wieghts of mud and grass, the different traction on the grass surface, because the field is a lviing lawn, the heartbeat of the player and the general bodily rhythm the wind and the differences in air in any given day that cannot be detected? Those are all factors that can affect a course of a ball kick that is not determined by skill. o luck it is not.
As for driving a car, surely you can't seriously beleive there isn't a large luck variance into getting into a car accident? Sure, if you are a better driver, you will be less likely to get into an accident, but many car accidents cannot be forseen and are purely luck based. People who beleive that they are great at driving cars and getting into an accidents are skill based therefore they are less likely to be in an accident are more likely to get into accidents afterall.
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Luck definitely plays a part ingames especially bo1 like ladder. You can be very consistent on the adder this is shown from the very high winrates of the best players. But certain builds on certain matchups are straight up gambles that mainly rely on your opponent being unable to get a good read on what you are doing. Starcraft is a game of limited information it has some similarities with poker. If players play enough games the better one will usually come out on top but sometimes you do just get felt a bad hand, your build gets blind countered, your opponent his something and even though you scouted you were unlucky and did not see it. You had a bad read on what your opponent was doing because what you did get to scout was ambiguous. Luck does play a part in sc2. Builds like dt rushes are highly reliant on luck.
You could argue that a perfect player would scout perfectly to prevent luck from affecting thier games, but sc2 early game is designed in such a way that you can still miss key information even if you play as optimal as possible to find it.
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Northern Ireland16440 Posts
On October 16 2021 13:26 washikie wrote:
Luck definitely plays a part ingames especially bo1 like ladder. You can be very consistent on the adder this is shown from the very high winrates of the best players. But certain builds on certain matchups are straight up gambles that mainly rely on your opponent being unable to get a good read on what you are doing. Starcraft is a game of limited information it has some similarities with poker. If players play enough games the better one will usually come out on top but sometimes you do just get felt a bad hand, your build gets blind countered, your opponent his something and even though you scouted you were unlucky and did not see it. You had a bad read on what your opponent was doing because what you did get to scout was ambiguous. Luck does play a part in sc2. Builds like dt rushes are highly reliant on luck.
You could argue that a perfect player would scout perfectly to prevent luck from affecting thier games, but sc2 early game is designed in such a way that you can still miss key information even if you play as optimal as possible to find it.
How crucial early blind decisions are and how long the information gathering period is and what information you can get and how you use it, as well as how effective middle of the road safe openers are all come into play. As well as how other skillsets come into play.
SC2, especially with Legacy’s eco ramp-up and maps almost exclusively being 2 player now you get a whole swathe of fiendish builds hitting pretty early, your initial worker scout may be too early to pick a build, and your initial unit poke with adept/reaper or early lings may be either too late or not be able to get in.
Without perfect info or a definitive scout it’s hard to make educated guesses because of the eco by elimination. In HoTS if you could say, sniff out Robo tech early you could rule out certain other techs, or if they had multiple trees they would have almost no units at that stage of the game and you could just kill them.
In Legacy if you see a Robo early doors they could still have a twilight and a shrine, or be rushing Templars
It’s still a great game but there is quite a lot of volatility, which I think was exacerbated in speeding up the eco, it’s harder to either directly scout (at certain impactful times) or rule out possibilities by a process of elimination.
BW has a slower build, cheese is of course a thing but the scouting phases can last quite some time. Plus it’s a really hard game execution wise. WC3 has actual genuine RNG in it but really elongated battles where better micro has more chance to shine.
Of the 3, the chance of an average mid GM equivalent beating a top pro player I’d wager is much higher in SC2 than the other two, for a variety of reasons.
Call it luck or volatility or whatever. I think one can both acknowledge it while also striving to improve their own skills and not using it as a crutch for losses.
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Well what's happened to me is, sometimes I'm scouting thoroughly and I manage to miss one corner where there is a proxy building so yes I would say there is some semblance of luck.
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EPT
