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Canada2764 Posts
On May 13 2016 23:15 Hider wrote:Are you same its the same author who writes both articles? Let's look at the argument for rating Iaguz over Scarlett Show nested quote +He even beat Bails in a showmatch afterwards, which alongside his good performance in WCS prior pushes him up quite nicely. Now let's look at the reasoning for Scarlett: Show nested quote +INnoVation, Ryung, Zoun, herO and Bomber. This matches her generally underwhelming performance throughout Legacy of the Void. A win over Elazer at WCS Shanghai was a welcome surprise, but even then, puCK knocked her out and stole the show. So for some reason Scarlett's win over Elazer gets downplayed whereas Iaguz who basically only has beaten Australians througout LOTV and won one seires over a mediocore NA player - Bails - gets rewarded. Talking about Bails, Scarlett is 11-5 over Bails over the last 3 months. But for some reason, its problematic when Scarlett loses to Scarlett. I am sure Iaguz would beat Innovation and Ryung on the other hand. These types of rankings are a recurring theme in TLs power rankings. Some stuff are just not a matter of opinion, but straight up wrong in every single way you can look at it.
Scarlett's win over Elazer is downplayed because it's the absolute height of her LotV performance and, even then, she got 3-0 rolled by puCK. It's a signature of her newfound inconsistency in my eyes, the fact that while she can draw an upset it's unlikely to become much more. Things such as her Kings of the North run or her consistent disappointment in Regionals make it hard to get behind her because she just hasn't gotten stuff together to get a big run through an event.
iaguz might be a little overrated, but my theory is that he showed he could dominate SEA and generally fits in as a Scarlett-tier NA player, but the last time he came to WCS he generally did better than expected so I ranked him optimistically while I ranked Scarlett down a bit from where you could. These things happen with strange regions like SEA or China and with players who have a lot of potential but little results like Scarlett, you have to make decisions which if made in a different way would shift the rankings quite a bit. I could've explained that better in the article, so my bad for that- but I hope you understand better now!
Also, a couple scattered points that I saw throughout the thread so far.
On Hydra winning Dreamhack Austin : Everyone that he beat, he placed above in the PR. I can't value a win over Neeb/MaSa because even though they're very good there's an unknown quality to them where as Polt and Snute have been very good at showing up big to bigger events - something Hydra had a stutter with (see Leipzig and to a lesser extent Winter) - while Nerchio vs Hydra was a huge debate in the writer's room but ultimately I just found that Nerchio's level of consistency met with Hydra's tournament win pretty well. You could put Hydra > Nerchio and I wouldn't be butthurt about it, but it's worth noting that their head to head over LotV is 8-8 which fits with where they're at.
On Scarlett vs FireCake : Yeah, Scarlett has a pretty good chance at an upset, and I actually mention that in the writing. She's shown that she can win in ZvZ, and she has a good bracket for it. But then again, her beating FireCake would be an upset, just an upset that people are betting on because of matchup and because Scarlett does have a history behind her. Just not in LotV, and therefor not in this PR.
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On May 14 2016 06:30 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2016 06:23 Phredxor wrote:On May 14 2016 06:13 BaneRiders wrote:On May 14 2016 01:24 Musicus wrote:On May 13 2016 23:58 Charoisaur wrote:
scarlett is pretty much a wildcard. I wouldn't be surprised at all if she gets far in this tournament but she basically has no results in LotV so far so there's no reason to rank her higher.
potential alone isn't a sufficient reason for that.
edit: hydra should be above nerchio and snute just because he knows how to win tournaments.
experience matters a lot in those situations
snutes and nerchios last tournament wins were in wol. Snute already won a tournament in LotV. Which one was that? I must have missed it... Can't remember the name but it was a chinese one with JD and Lilbow. Plus archon mode stuff. JD/FlaSh archon hype! This event:  GPL 2015 International Challenge
The event Lilbow was training for.
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On May 14 2016 08:43 Soularion wrote:Show nested quote +On May 13 2016 23:15 Hider wrote:Are you same its the same author who writes both articles? Let's look at the argument for rating Iaguz over Scarlett He even beat Bails in a showmatch afterwards, which alongside his good performance in WCS prior pushes him up quite nicely. Now let's look at the reasoning for Scarlett: INnoVation, Ryung, Zoun, herO and Bomber. This matches her generally underwhelming performance throughout Legacy of the Void. A win over Elazer at WCS Shanghai was a welcome surprise, but even then, puCK knocked her out and stole the show. So for some reason Scarlett's win over Elazer gets downplayed whereas Iaguz who basically only has beaten Australians througout LOTV and won one seires over a mediocore NA player - Bails - gets rewarded. Talking about Bails, Scarlett is 11-5 over Bails over the last 3 months. But for some reason, its problematic when Scarlett loses to Scarlett. I am sure Iaguz would beat Innovation and Ryung on the other hand. These types of rankings are a recurring theme in TLs power rankings. Some stuff are just not a matter of opinion, but straight up wrong in every single way you can look at it. Scarlett's win over Elazer is downplayed because it's the absolute height of her LotV performance and, even then, she got 3-0 rolled by puCK. It's a signature of her newfound inconsistency in my eyes, the fact that while she can draw an upset it's unlikely to become much more. Things such as her Kings of the North run or her consistent disappointment in Regionals make it hard to get behind her because she just hasn't gotten stuff together to get a big run through an event. iaguz might be a little overrated, but my theory is that he showed he could dominate SEA and generally fits in as a Scarlett-tier NA player, but the last time he came to WCS he generally did better than expected so I ranked him optimistically while I ranked Scarlett down a bit from where you could. These things happen with strange regions like SEA or China and with players who have a lot of potential but little results like Scarlett, you have to make decisions which if made in a different way would shift the rankings quite a bit. I could've explained that better in the article, so my bad for that- but I hope you understand better now! Also, a couple scattered points that I saw throughout the thread so far. On Hydra winning Dreamhack Austin : Everyone that he beat, he placed above in the PR. I can't value a win over Neeb/MaSa because even though they're very good there's an unknown quality to them where as Polt and Snute have been very good at showing up big to bigger events - something Hydra had a stutter with (see Leipzig and to a lesser extent Winter) - while Nerchio vs Hydra was a huge debate in the writer's room but ultimately I just found that Nerchio's level of consistency met with Hydra's tournament win pretty well. You could put Hydra > Nerchio and I wouldn't be butthurt about it, but it's worth noting that their head to head over LotV is 8-8 which fits with where they're at. On Scarlett vs FireCake : Yeah, Scarlett has a pretty good chance at an upset, and I actually mention that in the writing. She's shown that she can win in ZvZ, and she has a good bracket for it. But then again, her beating FireCake would be an upset, just an upset that people are betting on because of matchup and because Scarlett does have a history behind her. Just not in LotV, and therefor not in this PR.
in the last month Firecake barely beat CatZ 3-2, lost 0-2 to Nedi, 1-3 to Denver and even 0-2 to TLO; His ZvZ is kind of horrible at the moment, I think it would be a huge surprise if he would be able to beat scarlett
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On May 14 2016 06:21 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
I put no faith in online results at all since I don't watch them.
just because you don't watch somethign doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wtf?
if you don't watch online results don't write articles about starcraft players/tournaments/skill/events etc.?
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It's a bit odd to say you don't value Hydras win over Neeb when you ranked Neeb so high isn't it? 
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Canada8989 Posts
On May 14 2016 09:22 Comedy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2016 06:21 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
I put no faith in online results at all since I don't watch them.
just because you don't watch somethign doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wtf? if you don't watch online results don't write articles about starcraft players/tournaments/skill/events etc.?
Hey, feel free to write them yourself if you belive he is not qualify...
Lets keep it polite it is only a power rank done by someone nice (or passionate) enough to give time to write it for everyone else.
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A lot of people don't take online into consideration. I mean Zest just got rekt in two online series and he's easily considered the best player in the world atm.
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Mute City2363 Posts
On May 14 2016 09:22 Comedy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2016 06:21 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
I put no faith in online results at all since I don't watch them.
just because you don't watch somethign doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wtf? if you don't watch online results don't write articles about starcraft players/tournaments/skill/events etc.?
There's so much context that goes unseen in online matches that it's impossible to judge them purely by the result. People hide strats, people effectively throw to focus on different competitions, people play without the pressure of LAN.
There's no way you can possibly judge a match just by a result. So unless I watch an online match, I don't really give it too much weight because I don't know the context either way. Of course, it's a bit different if there's an overwhelming trend behind it such as Nerchio's record.
I write about the Korean scene, so I watch literally every match in the Korean leagues / Proleague, as well as Korean online matches when I have time, which is why there's not enough time in the day to take interest in the foreign scene. It would be nice if you could criticise my writing rather than me personally.
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On May 14 2016 10:24 thecrazymunchkin wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2016 09:22 Comedy wrote:On May 14 2016 06:21 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
I put no faith in online results at all since I don't watch them.
just because you don't watch somethign doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wtf? if you don't watch online results don't write articles about starcraft players/tournaments/skill/events etc.? There's so much context that goes unseen in online matches that it's impossible to judge them purely by the result. People hide strats, people effectively throw to focus on different competitions, people play without the pressure of LAN. There's no way you can possibly judge a match just by a result. So unless I watch an online match, I don't really give it too much weight because I don't know the context either way. Of course, it's a bit different if there's an overwhelming trend behind it such as Nerchio's record. I write about the Korean scene, so I watch literally every match in the Korean leagues / Proleague, as well as Korean online matches when I have time, which is why there's not enough time in the day to take interest in the foreign scene. It would be nice if you could criticise my writing rather than me personally.
No problem whatsoever with you as a person.
You mentioned in an earlier post that you did some of the writing and argueing about the power rank, so I just assumed it's something you do more often. That's why your comment came off really strange to me because I would hope that those who want to write about the foreign scene, have a natural interest in the scene and the players that for them it's fun to watch online tours. :D
When it comes to the foreign scene, I think that following online results and trends are by far the best way to know who is playing well, who might be breaking out soon, and who is developing a lot as a player.
The 'hiding strategies' and context you speak about it is something that does exist, but in such a small margin that you cannot use it as an arguement. Most pro players want to win every game, and every tournament they enter. The only real thing to consider is LAN pressure, but it's something that playing online tournaments can also help with. The more you play meaningfull matches the more practiced you become in dealing with nerves. Although yes, offline at a stadium will always be a different ball-game to some degree. And yes, you absolutely have to actually see the games to be able to analyze skill-levels, gameplay, etc.
I personally enjoy reading articles about the foreign scene much more than I do about Koreans, because I am genuinely interested in the scene and the people rather than just watching for strategies/skill level that I can apply to my own game, so I've missed your previous work. For that I apologize.
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Mute City2363 Posts
On May 14 2016 10:35 Comedy wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2016 10:24 thecrazymunchkin wrote:On May 14 2016 09:22 Comedy wrote:On May 14 2016 06:21 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
I put no faith in online results at all since I don't watch them.
just because you don't watch somethign doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wtf? if you don't watch online results don't write articles about starcraft players/tournaments/skill/events etc.? There's so much context that goes unseen in online matches that it's impossible to judge them purely by the result. People hide strats, people effectively throw to focus on different competitions, people play without the pressure of LAN. There's no way you can possibly judge a match just by a result. So unless I watch an online match, I don't really give it too much weight because I don't know the context either way. Of course, it's a bit different if there's an overwhelming trend behind it such as Nerchio's record. I write about the Korean scene, so I watch literally every match in the Korean leagues / Proleague, as well as Korean online matches when I have time, which is why there's not enough time in the day to take interest in the foreign scene. It would be nice if you could criticise my writing rather than me personally. No problem whatsoever with you as a person. You mentioned in an earlier post that you did some of the writing and argueing about the power rank, so I just assumed it's something you do more often. That's why your comment came off really strange to me because I would hope that those who want to write about the foreign scene, have a natural interest in the scene and the players that for them it's fun to watch online tours. :D When it comes to the foreign scene, I think that following online results and trends are by far the best way to know who is playing well, who might be breaking out soon, and who is developing a lot as a player. The 'hiding strategies' and context you speak about it is something that does exist, but in such a small margin that you cannot use it as an arguement. Most pro players want to win every game, and every tournament they enter. The only real thing to consider is LAN pressure, but it's something that playing online tournaments can also help with. The more you play meaningfull matches the more practiced you become in dealing with nerves. Although yes, offline at a stadium will always be a different ball-game to some degree.
No worries, it was a bit glib really.
I do watch as much of the major foreign LANs as possible, but it's more of a time issue sadly what with real life / real job. Soularion is the major WCS fan in TL Writers, and as mentioned we let him do the ranking; I just helped with some writing so we could hit the deadline.
I guess it's more that I put much more faith in one breakout performance on LAN than a couple upsets over big players online, and it'll take an overwhelming trend before I start to put faith behind the results. Online, there's always that ambiguity there—famously Polt has said in the past that he never uses his tournament strats online. Obviously there are people who do take every map online seriously like Snute / Nerchio, but it's just something I deal with much more sceptically in general.
If you're that interested in WCS, you're always welcome to apply 
Edit: As an aside, can people actually tell the difference between all of our writing styles? Obviously I'd hope most people can spot a stu article from miles away, but what about the rest of us?
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1001 YEARS KESPAJAIL22272 Posts
On May 14 2016 10:45 thecrazymunchkin wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2016 10:35 Comedy wrote:On May 14 2016 10:24 thecrazymunchkin wrote:On May 14 2016 09:22 Comedy wrote:On May 14 2016 06:21 thecrazymunchkin wrote:
I put no faith in online results at all since I don't watch them.
just because you don't watch somethign doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wtf? if you don't watch online results don't write articles about starcraft players/tournaments/skill/events etc.? There's so much context that goes unseen in online matches that it's impossible to judge them purely by the result. People hide strats, people effectively throw to focus on different competitions, people play without the pressure of LAN. There's no way you can possibly judge a match just by a result. So unless I watch an online match, I don't really give it too much weight because I don't know the context either way. Of course, it's a bit different if there's an overwhelming trend behind it such as Nerchio's record. I write about the Korean scene, so I watch literally every match in the Korean leagues / Proleague, as well as Korean online matches when I have time, which is why there's not enough time in the day to take interest in the foreign scene. It would be nice if you could criticise my writing rather than me personally. No problem whatsoever with you as a person. You mentioned in an earlier post that you did some of the writing and argueing about the power rank, so I just assumed it's something you do more often. That's why your comment came off really strange to me because I would hope that those who want to write about the foreign scene, have a natural interest in the scene and the players that for them it's fun to watch online tours. :D When it comes to the foreign scene, I think that following online results and trends are by far the best way to know who is playing well, who might be breaking out soon, and who is developing a lot as a player. The 'hiding strategies' and context you speak about it is something that does exist, but in such a small margin that you cannot use it as an arguement. Most pro players want to win every game, and every tournament they enter. The only real thing to consider is LAN pressure, but it's something that playing online tournaments can also help with. The more you play meaningfull matches the more practiced you become in dealing with nerves. Although yes, offline at a stadium will always be a different ball-game to some degree. Edit: As an aside, can people actually tell the difference between all of our writing styles? Obviously I'd hope most people can spot a stu article from miles away, but what about the rest of us?
when it's funny it's obvs lichter
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On May 14 2016 06:30 ZigguratOfUr wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2016 06:23 Phredxor wrote:On May 14 2016 06:13 BaneRiders wrote:On May 14 2016 01:24 Musicus wrote:On May 13 2016 23:58 Charoisaur wrote:
scarlett is pretty much a wildcard. I wouldn't be surprised at all if she gets far in this tournament but she basically has no results in LotV so far so there's no reason to rank her higher.
potential alone isn't a sufficient reason for that.
edit: hydra should be above nerchio and snute just because he knows how to win tournaments.
experience matters a lot in those situations
snutes and nerchios last tournament wins were in wol. Snute already won a tournament in LotV. Which one was that? I must have missed it... Can't remember the name but it was a chinese one with JD and Lilbow. Plus archon mode stuff. JD/FlaSh archon hype! This event: GPL 2015 International Challenge
Thanks!!
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There's so much context that goes unseen in online matches that it's impossible to judge them purely by the result. People hide strats, people effectively throw to focus on different competitions, people play without the pressure of LAN.
There's no way you can possibly judge a match just by a result. So unless I watch an online match, I don't really give it too much weight because I don't know the context either way. Of course, it's a bit different if there's an overwhelming trend behind it such as Nerchio's record.
The correct approach is to take into account every result but weight them differently. And when 90%+ of games played by a lot of foreign players are online, ignoring those results is a gigantic error.
People hide strats, people effectively throw to focus on different competitions,
This sounds like something that very rarely happens. Do you have any evidence to assume this is a frequent occurance?
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Scarlett's win over Elazer is downplayed because it's the absolute height of her LotV performance and, even then, she got 3-0 rolled by puCK. It's a signature of her newfound inconsistency in my eyes,
Puck is ranked # 13, so I don't think its a big issue losing to him once. Hydra also lost to bo5's in a row against Puck. And Scarlett actually beat Puck 2-1 last week.
The inconsistency issue is more related to her playing a lot of games and when you play a lot of games, you will sometimes lose against slightly worse players.
iaguz might be a little overrated, but my theory is that he showed he could dominate SEA and generally fits in as a Scarlett-tier NA player, but the last time he came to WCS he generally did better than expected so I ranked him optimistically while I ranked Scarlett down a bit from where you could. These things happen with strange regions like SEA or China and with players who have a lot of potential but little results like Scarlett, you have to make decisions which if made in a different way would shift the rankings quite a bit. I could've explained that better in the article, so my bad for that- but I hope you understand better now!
I am glad you admit he is overrated. With regards to his "dominance" in the SEA region, 1-8 against PIG says everything. He can surely beat alot of players at master skill level, but when he starts to get into the "semi-pro"/high GM level, he has lots of problems.
And my issue was how weird it seemed that you gave him credit for beating Bails 3-2 when Scarlett has an 11-5 record against him. That made it almost seem as if 2 different authors wrote those pieces as Scarlett and Bails were ranked on different parameters. Like if Scarlett losses to Puck --> She is bad. If Iaguz loses to Pig --> Let's ignore that and praise him for beating a medicore NA player and master level SEA players.
@ Peak argument
Looking at Scarlett's aligulac rating, she has been relatively stable at around 1850 over the last few months.
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OH MY XXX GOD this game is so STRANGE!
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Russian Federation195 Posts
that forced draw makes no sence
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100% Admin fail in game 3 this was 100% polt lose and the admin forced a coundown for no reason at all.
You never will be see a so bad decision from Admins in Korea at all.
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#Strange Won vs POlt see replay 5th game strange WON SEE
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#Strange Won vs POlt see replay 5th game strange WON SEE!!!
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EPT
