EPTCircuit City
The days are getting longer, temperatures are rising, and we’re entering a new phase in the annual cycle of life. For much of the Northern hemisphere, spring is finally arriving. What better way to celebrate the passing of the old than to saunter over to Shanghai for the first premier tournament of 2016’s Gold Series Pro-League. At the same time, it’s also another entry on this year’s WCS Circuit, which means bucketfuls of non-Korean attendees.
It’s already been months since the release of LotV, and the sometimes volatile meta has slowed down considerably. Ravagers, liberators and adepts have proven to be staples of the various match-ups and build orders. While players are always looking for more optimization, we’re unlikely to see new surprises over the coming spring. It’s been only two weeks since Katowice’s WCS Winter Championship, and all the familiar faces have been able to refine their strategies.
The tournament will see four invited players join eight players from the regional qualifiers. Another four players will try their luck qualifying through the offline open bracket, which will include, among others, the runner-up of WCS Winter Championship, Snute. The open bracket might also see wild cards finally make a name for themselves, to burst on to the international consciousness from the sometimes overlooked Chinese scene. After the open bracket is finished, sixteen players will be seeded into four groups and the tournament proper will begin.
Not only is there a $50,000 prize pool, but the tournament will be a chance to earn valuable WCS Circuit points that count towards BlizzCon in the fall. Crucially, though, the winner of this event won't qualify for BlizzCon directly, unlike the winners of the Championship events. Rather, this is a nice interlude between the Winter and Spring Championships. The perfect chance to get a leg up on others for the upcoming DreamHack Austin event.
We looked into where the participants are standing going into Shanghai, and what they're hoping to gain from the tournament.
Gaining Some Ground
PtitDrogo - The Nature of PatchesThroughout StarCraft's history, quite a few players have shifted according to balance and have seen previous strengths erode thanks to nerfs or found new success with some buff-granted tactic. A lot of this leads to fiery debate as people argue whether someone was actually good or just boosted by the patch they were in.. and, unfortunately, it seems like PtitDrogo is the most recent victim. His recent funk in play is pretty easily explain by the protoss patch that came into play after his Leipzig championship and—even though he's won before the patch—he's gonna need to prove he's worth the hype one more time here at GSI. Despite his noticeable drop in play, a couple things might point to some success here: for one, there's quite a lot of zergs here, which bodes relatively well considering a couple set wins over Bly are the only good thing about his record since Leipzig. Two, the protoss field is simply not in the same class, and as such he'll only have to worry about the sparse terrans and a couple of the top-tier zergs. In short? Yeah, recent records looks bad for PtitDrogo, but if ever there was a time for him to recuperate and come out with some new strategies it's now.
Desired Result : Top 4
MarineLord, Nerchio, Elazer and Snute are all huge players in the foreign scene. A few months ago? Well, PtitDrogo would've pretty handily been able to hang with them, but right now him even being able to remain competitive is a big question. A Semifinals performance here would place him above at least one of them and help to dispel rumors of him slumping, while a Quarterfinals would at least confirm he isn't in too bad of shape.
MarineLorD - The Shadow of DoubtDespite the fact that he's been one of the two dominating forces in LotV's European online scene, MarineLorD has picked up quite the nasty habit. He's a choker. He lost to HuK and ShoWTimE at Leipzig, MC at Kings of the Craft, Lilbow at Acer, MaNa at TING and most humiliatingly viOLet in his 'undefeatable' TvZ at WCS. That defeat—especially in such a tight manner—will be playing in his head as he looks at the zerg heavy player pool, and it'll be hard to favor him too much in TvZ going forward.. but, he still largely out-starpowers his opponents. If not for his recent record against Nerchio and noteworthy failure against viOLet he might even be considered the favorite! Instead? This serves as yet another opportunity for MarineLorD to prove himself as one of Europe's best instead of just another solid player, and a big run here would help regain confidence going forward into May's double Dreamhack.
Desired Result : Finals
MarineLorD's best shot at a finals is right here. Without a bad draw in getting Nerchio before that fateful championship match, it really shouldn't be an insurmountable challenge for him, and a dismantling of solid players in Elazer/PtitDrogo/MajOr would go a long way to establishing his offline credibility. A championship over this field would be huge and would push MarineLorD towards the 'Best European' title, but even just a second place would be noticeable improvement. Snute's involvement might prove to be a challenge for MarineLorD as well, but if he wants to retain his TvZ reputation it shouldn't be a large problem.
Snute - At Long LastSnute's WCS run, despite Polt's championship, might've been the biggest story of the entire Katowice weekend. It wasn't as if he got an easy bracket either: viOLet and Hydra are both quite scary (MarineLorD can testify) while MajOr and MaSa both showed up pretty strong in TvZ. Luckily Snute's least known matchup, ZvP, will be able to be dodged quite well here while the ZvZ that he looked so great in should be able to shine through. Of course he'll have no Koreans to worry about and Snute has historically tended to do better against Koreans than foreigners, oddly enough, so it might be a little out of his element, but still. It's Snute's turn to be on top of the world, and it's been a long time coming for the Norweigan champion, so if he seizes the chance? Expect big things from him in Shanghai.
Desired Result : Finals
He's unchallenged in the matchups that he hasn't already shown excellence in, and while MarineLorD and Nerchio both show renown in their vZ it shouldn't prove to be a huge deal for Snute. Making at least a finals here places him over one of those two, and proves that WCS wasn't a 'fluke'. Of course a championship is ideal, but with a surprisingly stacked lineup, that might be a little too optimistic.
iAsonu - The Dark HorseFor the first time ever, iAsonu has carried his online curiosity into a fairly impressive result in the European circuit. His ZvZ in general looked solid, which bodes well considering the zerg-heavy line-up here, and he should have a fair shot at downing any of the slumping/low-tier protoss too. His biggest threat are certainly the duo of terrans although his victory against Kelazhur to qualify for WCS makes it less of a certain loss and more of a passive pessimism. It's hard to say exactly where iAsonu lands as, despite his struggles in his homeland, he did provide a pretty good result in Katowice. Will the momentum carry him? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, he's always been one of the Chinese players with the most potential in my eyes, and the weakened lineup here gives him a good as ever chance to pull something off.
Desired Result : Quarterfinals
While a win against King-of-ZvZ Nerchio would be stellar and an upset against Elazer would carry the sweet taste of revenge, it's fairly unlikely that either would come to pass. Unfortunately for iAsonu, the top-tier of players (MarineLorD, Nerchio, Elazer, Snute and even PtitDrogo to an extent) are all best known for their vZ, and it'll either take a stunning upset or a lucky bracket to get past that. A good result here would be solid wins over the lower tier of competition and a reasonable performance against one of the big Europeans in the Quarterfinals to prove that he's a cut above the rest, but a win might be too optimistic.
XiGua - The Hometown HeroOuch. XiGua beats down his countrymen in both GPL and the Kung Fu Cup qualifiers and gets rewarded with viOLet first round in Katowice? Well, if it's any consolation, XiGua didn't exactly look terrible and even managed to take a match over viOLet who has reasonably good ZvZ. Unfortunately the lack of matches played against anyone in the middle makes it immensely hard to place XiGua, and it'd be just as fair to label him as someone unlikely to have success outside of China as it would be to presume he'd be better than iAsonu—who enjoyed moderate success in Katowice—thanks to their regional results. Personally? I think XiGua has a pretty great shot at taking out any of the lower-tier players, but without any games played since Katowice and practically no games played at all against europeans, it's hard to say he'll go much further.
Desired Result : Quarterfinals
Much like iAsonu, XiGua wants to confirm his superiority over the rest by cleanly exiting groups and making a solid QF appearance. Either a tight set against one of the 'big five' or a win to make Semis if he's blessed with an easy opponent would be a good showing for him, and anything more would make him immediately worthy of our full attention.
puCK - The Odd One OutUnlike MajOr, puCK didn't have a super close game against a top-tier player at Katowice. Unlike MaSa or Neeb, he didn't have a Ro16. Unlike HuK, he didn't have a Ro8. It was a disappointing weekend for puCK, making him potentially the only NA player to be entirely dissatisfied with their weekend.. well, him and Kelazhur, but one of those two were bound to be disappointed anyway. Luckily, puCK made a pretty good set of wins against JonSnow/MaSa/State to get here, so he has a second shot to make something happen. The looming threat of being a one-run wonder is all the heavier now, and puCK's general consistency in all three matchups won't even be able to come to full use here. It's gonna be a hard run, but not nearly as hard as the two DreamHacks on the horizon will be if he fails here. With a good run? Well, maybe NA won't be worth mocking after all.
Oh hell, we all know they will be anyway.
Desired Result : Quarterfinals
puCK will likely be leaning either on his PvZ against one of the Chinese zergs or his superiority over his 'regional peers' to exit groups. Neither is a certainty, but both are more likely than any parts of his DreamHack Winter run, so it's far from out of the question. Going forward from there, puCK will especially want to draw PtitDrogo as he won't have to face a rematch or a very scary zerg and will instead be able to lean on the past as PtitDrogo was part of that DreamHack Winter run. Thus, a semifinals is quite the long shot, but it would overshadow his Katowice dud for sure.
Has - The Embodiment of ChaosHoly crap, Has is getting better. Beating Bunny? Considering that he lost to the Danish terran already, a victory without the advantage of surprise managed to be one of the bigger upsets in all of the Ro32 and his follow-up set against FireCake wasn't even all that bad. It's unfortunate that Has manages to have somehow way-below-average mechanical skill—even for a foreigner—because his strategies have seemed sharper than before in LotV, and GSI is a pretty good place to show them off. Yet, somehow, this field of players poses more questions than Katowice did. Will he do worse when the 'nerves' of having to practice for him aren't as persistent? Will he do worse against players in the general Asian region, or will he continue to do surprisingly well as he has against the westerners? Will he continue his offline upsets, or stick to his online form?
Desired Result : Making Some Nerd Really Really Really Angry
I doubt Has gives a damn about Quarterfinals, even though he has a solid enough chance at making one here. Instead? Well, his playstyle is really good at inciting rage, and there's quite a few chances for that. The Americans don't have enough 'skill' to be large favorites against Has, while players like MarineLorD are cocky enough to perhaps give way to the cheese and someone like PtitDrogo is in enough of a point of weakness to be humiliated further by the Prince of Evil. From there it's likely just a Bo3 against a Chinese player—be it Jieshi or a zerg—to the Quarterfinals, where he can make even more people peeved.
Jieshi - The MysteryWhile iAsonu is an easy pick for a 'dark horse' type of player, Jieshi is more of an /actual/ dark horse in that we know close to nothing about him aside from the fact that he likes beating up on Jim and he's been pretty good in his region. His playstyle tends to come off as a less flavorful but somehow more disgustingly basic version of Has' 'creativity', and he even managed to beat the taiwanese star in none other than the NA Regionals. He also performed quite well in the GPL, even beating current-champ XiGua the season before! Unfortunately, his results against europeans are sketchier- he's taken games off of Snute and Serral but failed to close the set, and was promptly 2-0'd by HuK to prevent any chance at making a Katowice appearance. As such, your level of hype may vary depending on optimism, but chinese players have a habit of not quite performing in WCS events anyway.
Desired Result : Drawing Attention
Just like iAsonu/XiGua, Jieshi wants to make the Quarters, and he'll likely do so in similar fashion. His disadvantage is a lack of consistency and experience. Not only will he have a small hill to climb in the actual head-to-head against his countrymen, but players such as puCK and MajOr who should be stepping stones if one was making a run could pose deadly for the lowly protoss. Still, all it would take is one cheesing-out of his so-called superiors to gain our attention, and a Quarterfinals run wouldn't be too far. On the other hand, he also shares the 'cheesy as all hell' aspect with Has, therefor his goal is less reliant on making a good run and more reliant on making a good moment. When it comes to that? His chances seem a lot better.
MajOr - So Close, But So FarIf not for that pause in Game One. It was one fateful moment in one tense match that could've set MajOr 2-0 over the eventual finalist of Katowice, in an alternate reality that had the potential to see a real run from MajOr yet likely stopped at the Quarterfinals. But even then, an upset against Snute would've been huge. Regardless, it's good news that MajOr will have mostly zergs to play against as Snute is arguably as big as they come, and the protoss shouldn't provide too big of threats either. Reclaiming the throne of South America by beating Kelazhur in GSI qualifiers—as well as solid results both in region and out since Katowice—allow MajOr to take a breath without much risk. It's all reward from here, friend!.. Unless you lose to Has.
Desired Result : Semifinals
A semifinals might be an ambitious feat for the Mexican terran, but considering his performance against Snute—and actual wins over Snute and Serral since—it's hard to see a better time. Elazer isn't too far off of the Norweigan hero, while the Chinese duo shouldn't pose much of a threat for an on-form MajOr. Even PtitDrogo should be upset-able considering his current form. It all comes down to which MajOr shows up, and whether he can carry his recent momentum into a meaningful run or if he'll stagnate once more. Of course, the 'desired result' is a continuation, therefor a Semis is ideal, especially if it involves revenge on Snute.
Elazer - Walking The Edge of ShadowsDangit! Elazer was so close. He had Hydra on the ropes—falling in an actually intense ZvZ—when the Korean clutchness got the better of him and the Polish second-placer was left to wallow in his despair at yet another time where Nerchio stole the spotlight from him. Yet, in an ironic twist of fate, it was his loss against Hydra that showed the most promise. After all it takes but a mid-tier player to squeeze out wins against Bly and iAsonu, but only a skilled player could showcase the game knowledge and general talent that the Hydra set took. It's not too surprising that he's been quiet since then, but it's worth noting that his tense set trading against Snute at TING looks a lot better considering Snute's ZvZ ability since.
Desired Result : Championship
This is Elazer's time. He gets to play his best matchup almost entirely—as long as he dodges MarineLorD—and his eyes must be on the potential match against his 'rival' Nerchio. They aren't actual rivals yet, but it has to be frustrating to see someone from your own country consistently outperform you. Well, what better time to change that? An Elazer-Nerchio final might've been more appreciated in Katowice thanks to the crowd, but the storylines and tension would be little worse here in Shanghai. If Elazer can't perform here, it's going to be because of one of three reasons: MarineLorD performing as expected in TvZ, Nerchio or Snute performing as expected in ZvZ, or a big disappointment. As such, a finals appearance would keep his nature as a rising player going and an actual victory would establish him as one of the big players going into May and the Spring Championships.
Nerchio - The Power of the CrownWhew. Katowice was a somewhat rough road for Nerchio, but it taught him a few important things. For one? He's not a choker. His set against ShoWTimE was tense, hard-fought and nerve-wracking with a light comeback involved, but Nerchio's confidence didn't seem to waver nonetheless. For two? He's damn good. He followed that victory up with big wins over SortOf and HuK, proving his superiority over the meta and confirming his consistency. For three? He's a meta player. He knows LotV. He knows LotV really, really, really well. But when he matched up against Polt, he did what he should have done.. and Polt countered it. Twice in a row he lost to harsh counterattacks before finally being K-O'd by a brutal timing, leading to a 3-0 that didn't damage his reputation as one of the best in Europe but rather confirmed him as not quite on the level as a foreign all-time great such as Stephano or NaNiwa. Will this tournament prove that wrong? Probably not, but it's gonna be a good chance for Nerchio to continue his consistency and could provide a championship given his play holds up.
Desired Result : Championship
Elazer, MarineLorD and Snute are all no slouches in the vZ matchup. Especially MarineLorD, who has routinely tangoed with Nerchio online. But the Polish zerg just seems on another level right now. A loss could be excused if it comes in the Finals, or maybe in the Semis, to one of those three in a very tight set.. but let's be honest, if he doesn't take the championship his stock is gonna go down. If he does? Well, couple that with his revenge kill on Polt at TING and it becomes a lot easier to get back on the hype train for Spring's one-two DreamHack punch.
Scarlett - EffortlessScarlett's LotV endeavors are rather neatly tied up in that one word, for good and for bad. On one hand, it's a bit of a shame to see the ex-most-exciting-foreigner-of-HotS falter so heavily, but on the other hand I'd be lying if I said it wasn't a little impressive to watch her dominate the GPL qualifiers anyway. Her win over viOLet in the TING Open gives her ZvZ some amount of hope, but it'll all depend on which Scarlett shows up. If HotS-Scarlett shows up- prepare for an exciting tournament. If LotV-Americanized-Scarlett shows up? Well, she'll probably show a good set in the Ro16 before disappointing her way out in Groups.
Desired Result : Hard Quarterfinals/Easy Semifinals
If this is truly Scarlett making a worthy return to the scene, it shouldn't be too hard for her to find a spot in the Quarters. Hell, she's shown enough flickers of potential that—if you put them together—it'd be easy to wipe the floor with the likes of MajOr and XiGua, and even PtitDrogo isn't too far off from there. However, even if she shows up quite big, MarineLorD/Elazer/Nerchio/Snute is a tough top four to break into. But, at the end of the day? I'd be glad to even see her up on the pedestal with them.
Sioras - I Really Have No Clue, GuysSeriously? Do any of you guys know who Sioras is? Have any of you watched any of his games? Well, let me break down what we know: even in his short list of LotV results he's managed to lose to not one but three (four, counting repeats) players in this tournament. That's at least a little impressive, right? Oh, come on, none of you could manage that! Probably. Maybe.
Desired Result : Literally Anything
I mean, uhm, he beat Petraeus to get here, so that's not too bad, right? Probe, too! And he took a game off Scarlett one time, so it's definitely not impossible for him to take a set. It'll just be really weird, because it's the type of upset that is possible but nobody wants to face because it's just too unusual so maybe it's for the best that he goes out 0-4 and puts a smile on some other nerd's face.
