In the Fog of War

Week 1 of Code S was a blast, and after the surprising results in Group A, Group B gave us a similarly tough fight for supremacy. Both of the big favourites, herO and Dream, advanced into the next round, leaving Seed and Leenock lying in the dust. However the battle in the winners' match between the CJ protoss and the SKT terran took an interesting turn when herO’s hot blood got the better of him: he overcommitted to a counter-offensive while ahead in economy, losing his army to a steady stream of terran reinforcements and ultimately throwing the game and series away. Throughout the group, Dream once again showcased his remarkable multitasking and harassment skills, taking a deserved first place.

The first week has given us two protoss and terrans in the round of 16 each, while both zerg players so far were banished to the last place of their respective groups. Will we finally see a zerg advance in Week 2, or can the other races continue their dominance over the competition?

Should anyone ask MyuNgSiK about that, he’d probably not care, as long as he gets out of the group on first place. The SKT protoss delivered an astonishing performance in last year’s Pre-Season Tournament and secured himself a direct seed into Code S—avoiding the hell that is Code A—once again proving his abilities against all odds. He always stood out as a sneaky player, relying on his cunning and on plans made beforehand to secure victory, rather than raw mechanics and excellent control. And, of course, he flourished where other players drowned, in the well planned out chaos of games quickly deviating from the standard. That might be why he was so successful in early Legacy of the Void. He is a flexible player, quick to find any strong and surprising moves to strike right into any weaknesses his adversary might have. This fuel seems to have run short in 2016 however, as MyuNgSiK fell out of the SSL without winning a map, was eliminated in the Kung Fu Cup qualifier by a struggling Leenock and failed his Proleague debut for SK Telecom T1. The protoss has to take initiative and build up momentum again, lest his direct seed into Code S change into a direct ticket to hell.

If MyuNgSiK’s form is doubtable, Bunny’s form is utterly unpredictable. In fact the CJ terran has not played a single StarCraft 2 match this year, even being marked ‘inactive’ in the Aligulac database. He was of course scheduled to play Life in Code A, and got a free pass into Code S. We can surely assume he hasn’t been idle all this time, planning out his Code S performance with his teammate Bbyong and his coach sKyHigh—two notorious terran tinkerers—so even though we know absolutely nothing about his form, we can guess he’ll come up with something of a plan in his mind. When he played matches last year, including a great run in the Pre-Season Tournament, Bunny looked solid, utilizing all the new terran tools and beating players normally considered above his league. He’s the definition of a wildcard in this group.

Unfortunately for zerg fans Symbol—once an idol of zerg strength—probably won’t be the guy to end the zerg victory drought. In fact he is desperately waiting for salvation himself, so you really can’t expect him to suddenly be the saviour for his entire race. He continuously participates in online cups to get some kind of success going, to build up momentum and confidence again, but these attempts have not only been futile so far—they might have actually damaged Symbol’s psyche even more. Chinese and European players, who should have been nothing more than easy sparring partners, eliminated Symbol tournament after tournament—the zerg even has a bit of losing streak going against Nerchio. Symbol really failed to utilize the tools LotV brought for his race, which is shocking: as a TSL zerg, invulnerable nydus networks and beefed up roach-based play should have rejuvenated his career, not make it worse. The odds look grim for him in his opening match against Soulkey, and for Symbol in general.

Now, of course his opponent won’t be too sad about that, as his chances to advance profit from Symbol’s ongoing weakness. Soulkey has looked great at times so far in Legacy, but failed to reclaim his top position within the zerg race, lacking consistency. The TCM player isn’t out the race though. With a great performance in GSL he could get his name up there again and in this group he is certainly the most successful and reputable player. Fielding a great number of strategies and a great deal of experience he should be the favourite here.

Predictions

Soulkey at the top of the group should be the most probable outcome, while Symbol is the most likely player to end up at the bottom, should he not miraculously turn the heat up. Who advances alongside the former GSL champion should be interesting though: MyuNgSiK has had a bad year so far, while Bunny hasn’t had a year at all, so these two are essential wildcards. While I’d give MyuNgSiK the edge, being on SKT now, counting out Bunny would be a mistake. The CJ terrans are a crafty bunch and their new tools are deadly.

MyuNgSiK > Bunny
Symbol < Soulkey
MyuNgSiK < Soulkey
Symbol < Bunny
MyuNgSiK > Bunny

Soulkey and MyuNgSiK to advance to the Round of 16.

---

Writers' Draft

Week 1 Report Card

Time for our first weekly report on our Writers’ Draft standings! For an overview of the initial drafting process, click here. Here’s a quick reminder of the teams:
+ Show Spoiler +

---

Destructicon - 15 points - C
Zest +10
Rogue -5
Dream +10

Group A started off abysmally for Destructicon. When you take two players in the same group as your first pair of picks, you’d better be pretty damn sure that you’ll be getting a minimum of 15 points from the first round. Zest delivered the goods, while Rogue failed horribly—not merely failing to make it out of the group, but getting hit with the -5 point penalty for going winless on the night. Oops. Fortunately, Dream bailed him out, taking home first place in Group B. 15 points is a reasonable total, but more should probably have been expected.

Soularion - 1 point - B+
Seed +1

With just a single point in Week 1, Soularion might be bottom of the standings so far, but if you were expecting any more from the 31st pick in the draft, you’re being horribly optimistic. This was about as good as it was likely to get.

TheOneAboveU - 6 points - C+
herO +5
Journey +1

Taking herO with the third pick of the draft, TheOneAboveU was probably expecting an easy 10 points, if not all 15 available. Dream made him sweat though, and the CJ ace was sent to the lower bracket to face off against Seed for a spot in the Round of 16. He may have missed out on maximum Ro.32 points, but at least he’s still alive to score big in the later rounds. Like Soularion, TheOneAboveU also managed to nab a single point with his 8th round pick of Journey, so bonus credit there.

hexhaven - 5 points - D
TaeJa +5
Leenock +0

With perfect precognition across the board, you should be expecting 10 points each from your first two picks, 5 points from your 3rd and 4th, 1 point from your 5th and 6th, and 0 from your last two picks, and thus points-wise in Round 1, there's little difference between falling from 1st to 2nd, and from 2nd to 3rd. However, that’s not the full story. Points are awarded throughout the season, so while dropping down from 1st place to 2nd means you lose out on only 5 points, dropping from 2nd means you lose the chance of gaining any points in any of the next 4 rounds as well. In summary, it shouldn't matter too much at the moment if players drop a match as long as they still qualify for the next round. Leenock falling out of his group in 4th is a big blow.

Current standings

Destructicon - 15 points (5 to play this round)
TheOneAboveU - 6 points (6)
hexhaven - 5 points (6)
Soularion - 1 point (7)