SSL Ro16 Day 3

Something strange is afoot in Korea. Take a look at the players currently qualified for Code S and the players still alive in SSL, and you'll see several names that may seem odd. Players that don't usually qualify for the biggest tournaments. Players that aren't lumped into the hallowed elite. Yet here they are, early in Legacy of the Void, proving that they belong. Qualification is just the first step, however, and players such as MyuNgSiK, aLive, Hurricane and Patience must prove that they are worthy of advancement against their more decorated opponents.



Legacy of the Void competitive record:
Dark: 21-10 (9-4 in ZvP)
MyuNgSiK: 63-35 (23-14 in PvZ)

With all the praise bestowed upon Dark at the start of 2015, the gradual deflation of the hype bubble surrounding him must have been a disappointment. His results weren’t bad per se—top four at IEM Katowice and a pair of KeSPA Cup silvers is a perfectly respectable haul, and qualifying for all six starleagues on offer was an achievement that shouldn’t be underestimated—but failure to progress past the round of sixteen of any Korean league was a reminder that he’s still far from the finished product. Feted as the last link to the SlayerS line, his status as SKT’s ace in Proleague in Round 1 seemed to be a statement that he was ready to step up to the big leagues. However, his 17-12 record, while good, was comfortably the weakest of SKT’s starring quintet, and considerably boosted by his extremely strong corruptor ZvT style (10-2 for the year). There was a sense that he preparation game wasn’t the strongest—hence his success primarily coming at the weekenders—but more than anything, it was his ZvP which let him down, and he struggled to take engagements in the late game throughout the year. Coming into Legacy, though, the increased focus on mid-game harassment and aggression should suit his counter-attack style, while he was always a fan of ultralisks even back in HotS. We haven’t seen any ZvP from him at all in LotV, although he certainly looked the part against GuMiho last week, and one year on from his emergence from the SKT bench, it will be interesting to see if he’s come to the party with a couple of new tricks.

Of all the players who rose to success in 2015, MyuNgSiK was one of the most surprising. Dream’s ability to play mind-bendingly good games was established as far back as 2012, and it was just a case of whether he’d develop the consistency to put a run together; Rogue was a consistent threat in Proleague for Jin Air in 2014; while ByuL’s WCS NA silver medal and strong team league performances made him one of the strongest acquisitions of the post-season break. But MyuNgSiK? The player last seen comprehensively dissected by TRUE in the Proleague semifinals, mentally shattered and ditched by KT soon after? I’ll put my hands up and say that I never saw that one coming at all.

Credit to him though, after bouncing from team to team, before eventually ending up at SKT, he seems to finally have found his niche as the prime deployer of the stupid gun. MyuNgSiK’s aggressive style forces out hard decisions from his opponent, and despite his rather mediocre micro, his impeccable ability to somehow choose the right option lets him beat more prestigious opponents time and time again. Ominously, he’s looked very good indeed following the switchover to Legacy—taking home the GSL Preseason Week 2 title after reverse sweeping TY in the finals—and has already booked his spot in Code S. It’s just reward for the effort he’s put into the new expansion—he’s already ground out 78 games in Legacy since release—in a postseason break where most in Korea have been off on holiday. After a year when he threatened to break into the top tier of Korean protosses, 2016 is shaping up to be even better.

Predictions:

While Dark did look good in Code A, ZvT has always been by far his best matchup and ZvP his weakest. With MyuNgSiK's recent switch, this has suddenly become the most awkward of team kills, and given how great MyuNgSiK looked in the Preseason, I have to opt for the protoss here.

Dark 0 - 2 MyuNgSiK



Legacy of the Void competitive record:
Classic: 10-5 (2-0 in PvT)
aLive: 77-50 (17-12 in TvP)

This time last year, all talk of Classic centred around his exit from the GSL in Season 3. Coming into Code S as the defending champion, he crashed and burned instantly, becoming the first player to drop out of the Round of 32. There were accusation of being a patchtoss; there were claims that he’d never again hit those heights. Of all the GSL champions we’ve had in times gone past, it’s hard to think of one whose public image dipped quite so quickly.

His 2015 has therefore been quite the triumph. Picking up a second starleague title was vindication of his talent, while adding on an IEM trophy was the cherry on top. Great performances in Proleague made him an essential part of the SKT machine, while a second consecutive top four finish at BlizzCon confirmed his place as one of the very finest players in the world. From March to August, Classic hit 70% win rates in all three matchups, and while 60+% win rates across the board during 2015 as a whole are slightly more modest, they still add further credence to the claim that he’s been the most versatile player in Korea for the year. Why then, is he still so bafflingly underrated? Why is he so rarely regarded as one of the major threats in any tournament he enters? In particular, the short shrift he received from the analysis desk at BlizzCon was indicative of a player still perceived to be in the shadows of his equals. Rack up another year of consistent success, however, and it’ll be pretty hard to justify the case against his claims any longer.

If there’s one player who knows something about being underrated though, it’s got to be aLive. Do you even remember his championship win at IPL 4? His top 4s in GSL and Iron Squid in 2012? The fact that he made it to the Global Finals in 2013? Be honest—did you remember he was even playing? The SBENU terran has forever been the byword for Generic Korean Terran—brutal efficiency welded to utterly standard, safe play. Technically, he’s got it all—comfortable in traditional bio styles, once famed as a top tier mech player, and more than capable of mixing in a mean cheese build—but it’s just been a case of applying it on the biggest of stages since his WoL heyday. Ever since that last run to Anaheim in 2013, it’s been downhill—he’s only made a single appearance in the main stages of a starleague in nine attempts since. Legacy therefore is a fresh start for him—exemplified by the sheer number of games he’s ground out since release.

We’ve seen already that the early adopters have reaped the benefits in this chaotic start to the Korean Starcraft year, with ByuN, Solar and MyuNgSiK looking particularly strong, and judging by aLive’s simple victory over ByuL in the GSL, it’s a pattern that may well continue for a while yet. That match demonstrated exactly how his star looks to be on the rise in Korea again—he showed a fundamentally better understanding of the game, while tailoring build choices to each map—and that’s the kind of nous he’ll need to show to come out on top here.

Predictions:

While aLive’s the one coming into this match with far more experience in the new expansion, it’s difficult to look past Classic here. The SKT protoss has always been a jack of all trades, capable of mixing it up and changing his style at will, and should be one of the players most capable of adapting to all the changes that Legacy has brought.

Classic 2 - 1 aLive



There are times when we decide to discount statistics because of potential sampling error, especially for players who don't really play that often or players who frequently play against lesser opponents. Finding the right way to weigh winrates is key in drawing the right picture, even though regular changes to methodology can be confusing.

This time however, there really is nothing. Hurricane, despite playing 67 recorded games since the release of LotV, has yet to play a PvP that counts on aligulac. Somehow, he has avoided playing a single mirror in Leifeng cups or Korean league qualifiers. It's uncertain whether this is lucky or unlucky, but it is certainly surprising considering the glut of protoss talent in Korea. What we do know, however, that Hurricane is an average protoss (relatively even winrates across matchups and eras) with a strong sense of timing. While he isn't wont to all in every single opponent, he also knows when to end games when given the opportunity. That trait was mostly evident in his PvTs in Proleague, yet he struggled against his own race with a 1-4 record. Without a stylistic preference or a key excellent trait, it's difficult to envision just how Hurricane will overcome his more renowned opponent.

In many ways, Stats is like super-saiyan Hurricane. Stable in every single matchup, Stats has no true weakness or hole in his play. He knows when to sprinkle in some cheese and how to hit strong timings, yet he also has a strong lategame and a penchant for harassment. Stats was one of only 7 players with more than 20 wins in Proleague 2015, though his PvP (at 4-4) did look like a weakness. He experienced a major slump towards the tail end of HotS as well, which curtailed any hopes of him breaking out of Zest's shadow. Still, the KT player is more than a match for anyone in Korea, and he is certainly favored against a player that has never reached the bracket stages of a Korean tournament before this one.

Predictions:

Stats and Hurricane might be seen as like-for-like, except that Stats is a few degrees better than the Samsung protoss. There could be a chance that their styles have diverged in LotV, but after years playing the game that seems highly unlikely. Unfortunately, that usually means a clean sweep.

Stats 2 - 0 Hurricane



It's rather unfortunate that Patience has to face herO so early in the tournament. While that sounds like a veiled insult, it isn't. Patience has been one of the most surprising players in LotV so far, as he's qualified for both Code A and SSL for the first double-premier of his career. Yes, the dPix protoss has had a couple of strong international LAN runs, but he has always struggled in Korean weekly tournaments. What has changed, however, is harder to pinpoint.

On the one hand, Patience now has a 70% winrate in PvT. There has been much debate regarding the matchup recently, and it isn't clear whether he has been a benefactor of a helpful metagame or if he has truly made strides in the matchup. Against zergs, however, he is a pitiful 46.81%. Still, his form in each matchup fluctuates wildly between being crushed and winning Olimoleagues, but we do know that he's doing better than ever. His PvP is an entirely average 57%, and he has to face a player that has historically struggled in the mirror.

Of course, herO is still, by far, the more seasoned of the two players. He dispelled the suggestion that he was merely a weekend warrior by winning titles in Korea in 2015, and he has been one of the best protoss in the world for at least 2 years now. With very few games to go on in LotV so far (only 9 games in PvP, 6 wins), it's difficult to tell how herO will fare. Fortunately, we do know that herO prefers blink stalkers in PvP, and that bodes well considering the current PvP meta consists mostly of blink and disruptors.

If this match turns into a battle of micro, there's a good chance that herO will have no trouble dispatching of Patience. However, should the dPix player have a few tricks up his sleeves (you know, like proxy gates), there's no telling what could happen. Patience must avoid facing herO in an outright blink war and use his experience in LotV to outwit his opponent. He might still have a slight lead in his understanding of the meta due to his online exploits, but his lead is shrinking. Now's the time to capitalize on it.

Predictions:

The current metagame favors herO, and it's difficult to imagine him losing this series should things stay standard. Patience is not the type of player to come up with something revolutionary and somersault over his opponents, and he has a very thin history in prepared leagues. Everything suggests that herO should walk away with another Ro8, but LotV has been confusing enough for fans to have doubts.

Patience 1 - 2 herO