EPTSBENU SC2 Starleague 2015 Season 2
S2SL Challenger
INnoVation vs Snute
Rain vs TooDming
Life vs aLive
Brackets and Standings on Liquipedia
Liquipedia
INnoVation vs Snute
Of all the matches in SSL Challenger, this is probably the strangest one to call. No, it isn't because of Liquid Bias and it isn't because of delusional foreigner hope. It's because while INnoVation remains one of the best terrans in the world, he's still INnoVation, the guy that dies to roach bane more than most terrans combined.
There is reason to believe that, when it matters the most, INnoVation has learned how to adjust. That's exactly what happened in his Code S grand final against soO, where he was on the ropes against his teammate's aggressive play. He switched gears and buckled down when all his protocols told him to play in the most methodical, efficient way. It allowed him to claim 4 wins in a row to claim his very first GSL title. That should have been the start of his reign, yet he was stopped by TaeJa at BlizzCon only for his polar opposite, the instinctual beast Life, to win the title. 2015 hasn't been his year either, as another SKT Terran has stolen the limelight from the machine. Dream shares much more with Life than with INnoVation, and it must hurt RoBogus to have the SKT Terran throne usurped from him with such ease. Even though the quality of his play has barely fluctuated since his title win, the fact that someone else is earning plaudits in his place, playing a style he could never replicate, must grind his gears. If he is ever to reclaim his title as the heir to SKT, he must prove to the world that he is still the best terran on his team.
Yet will INnoVation revert back to his inflexible mean? He received what is essentially a bye in Challenger: a bout against a foreigner. However, he might not be so lucky after all, as he's drawn a zerg that is more than willing to study his opponent and play a style to counter it. Once upon a time Snute was the Korean Killer, as close to a foreign hope as we have ever had since Stephano. Yet he too has been usurped by a teammate, this time Bunny, as the best player on his storied team.
Much of it is because of Snute's inability to close out good terrans. Back in IEM Toronto, Snute had a legitimate shot at ending Flash's tournament once he was 2-0 up. Unfortunately, his failed all ins allowed the Ultimate Weapon to climb back into the series and move on to win the tournament. That could have been a statement victory for the Norwegian—how many foreigners can claim beating Flash in a Bo5?—but he crumbled as his stack of chips grew taller. His capitulation against Bunny in Season 1 and Kelazhur in Season 2 of WCS this year also suggests that Snute has a real weakness against terran and that his meager 57% winrate does not lie. Snute was never a remarkable player in terms of mechanics, but he was one of the few players in the entire world to truly understand swarm host positioning and usage. The best aggressive swarm host player in Korea, Soulkey, had much to thank for Snute's innovation in that style. Unfortunately it is now defunct, and he just isn't as good with late game ling bling muta. Of course, against INnoVation, you might not have to get that far.
Predictions:
INnoVation actually doesn't die to a bunch of all ins.
INnoVation 3 - 1 
SnuteRain vs TooDming
Unfortunately, TooDming had to forfeit for health reasons, but it's not like he was going to win a game against Rain anyway. At least this way he gets to stay home from work.
Predictions:
The casters make a joke about MERS symptoms and getting a cold in the rain
Rain 3 - x TooDmingLife vs aLive
The Preview, Had This Been 4 Months Ago
Well aLive, you'd better pray Life hasn't been practicing SC2 and has been playing LoL or whatever lately. He's likely the best zerg in the world, and he's still aLive. And by that I mean, he's okay, but no one ever really pays attention to him except Darkhorse. He's done well to qualify for SSL Challenger, but it was against protoss that he did his best work. However, aLive is aLive, and he's actually been fairly consistent in all his matchups over time hovering around 55%. Still, his results have dropped dramatically since his semi final finish in WCS AM Season 1 2013. He hasn't even qualified for anything in 2015, and this is the first time we're going to see him in an individual tournament since mid-2014. That's a long time to disappear even for aLive, and his fan (or fans, maybe) would like to believe that only makes him more dangerous.
He's going to have to rely on trickery to get out of this one. He's no Dream and therefore won't stand up against the tide of Life in macro games. There's no shame in all-inning Life, especially when he's coasting. A spot in SSL is on the line, so expect him to play dirty.
The Preview, Now
Well Life, you'd better pray aLive doesn't know how to do sneaky hellbat all ins. While Life has won many of his titles rampaging through terrans, he hasn't beaten one since May (KeeN). Since that time he's lost to Dream, Bomber, TY, FanTaSy and Maru. Yes, that's a pretty scary list of opponents, but Life should be better than at least three of those players. After winning GSL Season 1 however, it looks like Life has reverted to his care free ways. That's the problem with Life. As supremely talented as he is, he just doesn't have the attention span (or whatever it is) to play and practice hard for an entire year. He switches off just as it seems like he's about to become dominant, and it remains the one big knock on his legacy that doesn't seem like changing any time soon. Life probably doesn't care about being crowned the GOAT though, and winning some money while slacking off the rest of the year probably sounds like a better deal for an 18 year old champion.
He's going to have to tighten his defense and scouting for this one. He's surprisingly vulnerable against timing attacks, and an underhanded all-in from aLive may catch him off guard. There's no shame in playing conservatively, especially against an enigma like aLive. A spot in SSL is on the line, but it's hard to tell how much Life really wants it.
Prediction:
aLive confuses us once more
Life 0 - 3 aLive
