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The_Red_Viper
19533 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:09 Penev wrote: The new liquibets are up. It's not proleague but yeah.. Fucking god dammit Well there is no need to expect every game to be fixed, no matter what will come out of all of this. So far we only have a handfull of strange games, don't go full conspiracy | ||
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Caihead
Canada8550 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:11 ThomasjServo wrote: Been rolling this around in my head for a bit, and I get the Pinnacle perspective, but feel a KeSPA/Proleague comment is necessary. Pinnacle is protecting itself, which is entirely reasonable for a betting business, but I would want to see some type of official investigation launched and indicating who was complacent in the alleged match fixing with the proper punishments (Bans from pro-gaming probably) at stake for involved parties. As they say, where there is smoke there is fire, and rekrul points out there are signs that this is more widespread than we may be able to see from the outside looking in; I guess I'll have to wait and see what comes out and I may well be left holding my breath. They are an professional representative organization, I imagine things are supposed to be sorted out internally before resorting to any sort of public statements / whistle blowing. that would be inline with even the most well respected engineering / medical organizations, so I wouldnt be surprised if not a word comes out of kespa | ||
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bduddy
United States1326 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:02 Elentos wrote: That's arguably even worse than just MK being involved. Well it would mean the bettors all knew at least ByuL's strategy and MK's average reaction to "scouting" it. So, the bets were made by CJ Entus' coaching staff and players. Clearly, this is the truth we should stick to <.< | ||
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Penev
28536 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:14 The_Red_Viper wrote: Well there is no need to expect every game to be fixed, no matter what will come out of all of this. So far we only have a handfull of strange games, don't go full conspiracy I don't, I'm just really worried about this | ||
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ThomasjServo
15244 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:14 Caihead wrote: They are an professional representative organization, I imagine things are supposed to be sorted out internally before resorting to any sort of public statements / whistle blowing. that would be inline with even the most well respected engineering / medical organizations, so I wouldnt be surprised if not a word comes out of kespa I don't think they made the cancellation lightly, but I would prefer to see a statement from an organization whose business isn't paying out money based on wagers in a match as skewed as CJ vs. MVP. I too, know I am wishing in one hand and shitting in the other with a statement/investigation from KeSPA, but a nerd can hope. | ||
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Plansix
United States60190 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:11 ThomasjServo wrote: Been rolling this around in my head for a bit, and I get the Pinnacle perspective, but feel a KeSPA/Proleague comment is necessary. Pinnacle is protecting itself, which is entirely reasonable for a betting business, but I would want to see some type of official investigation launched and indicating who was complacent in the alleged match fixing with the proper punishments (Bans from pro-gaming probably) at stake for involved parties. As they say, where there is smoke there is fire, and rekrul points out there are signs that this is more widespread than we may be able to see from the outside looking in; I guess I'll have to wait and see what comes out and I may well be left holding my breath. Its the ongoing problem of having such a huge player base that is making almost zero money. It makes stuff like match more likely just because the money seems good. | ||
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ThomasjServo
15244 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:19 Plansix wrote: Its the ongoing problem of having such a huge player base that is making almost zero money. It makes stuff like match more likely just because the money seems good. Completely, I get the incentive, especially with how MKP has been playing (presuming that wasn't intentional). May well be time to have a kind of culling of the herd of sorts what with all the "We need Sponsors" of Startale etc. The landscape of the scene has fundamentally changed, SC2 is, by and large, funded by other teams under the same name. CJ's LoL team or peripheral, more wide reaching eSports titles at the moment rather than being the primary cash generator for the team they once were (in most cases). | ||
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Swoopae
Australia339 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:03 j4vz wrote: Where is the proof of that? Any developer could change the timestamp on these things afterward to make it look like it was bet'd before. StarGalaxy and I were watching the betting lines in real time. Several others were in the 2p2 thread and on Skype watching the betting lines with me in real time as well and saw them. StarGalaxy took the screenshot in the imgur link. Pinnacle has not disputed the screencap's legitimacy and Pinnacle cancelled all bets on the game due to 'fraud'. The betting line opened at 1.73 for Byul, was close to the 1.50 region a few minutes before the game and then closed at 1.091 after an insane amount of money was bet on Byul moving the lines. This is not debatable, this is a fact. I can provide a screencap of my bet on Byul at 1.73 opening lines for comparison if necessary or you can just take my word for it. You can draw whatever conclusions you want from those numbers, but don't try and dispute factual data. Once again i'd like to reiterate; clearly not all matches are fixed, it's a small handful of matches that are under suspicion and this one just happened to be the most blatant. I posted a full list of games that had unusual betting activity earlier in the thread. Betting is based on probability - knowing who the favourite is means nothing unless you can assign a probability to results. As i've started numerous times the odds at closing line would require Byul to win 11 out of 12 maps against Marineking in order for the bet to break even. This means that to show a profit, on AVERAGE you would need Byul to beat Marineking approximately 92 times out of 100 before the bet becomes worth making. No one is disputing that Byul was the favourite, but depending on how you handicap the match he is between a 1.33 and 1.70 favourite and that's a very wide range, in reality it's closer to 1.50 or so. Large amounts of money continued to pile in on Byul long beyond this point, at a rate statistically impossible for the bets to be legitimate. For what it's worth Aligulac suggests that Marineking has a 39% chance to win a bo1 against Byul; Aligulac isn't empirically accurate for handicapping bets but it's a good indication, and objectively Marineking is certainly better than 20% to win; he would have to only be 8% to win a best of 1 to justify these odds. For example, according to Aligulac, in a best of 1 match between Ziroy and Byul, it would not be correct to bet on Byul at 1.091. If you're wondering who Ziroy is, so am I because struggled to find literally ANY player on the aligulac tracker who it would be correct to bet on Byul in a bo1 against at 1.091. Actually, I finally found one. Wardi is deemed by Aligulac to have a 8.66% chance against Byul in a bo1 map. This would make Byul just over an 11-1 favourite in a single map. Wardi is a British terran I have never heard of with a tracked record of 2 wins and 23 losses. The only player I have even heard of that he has played in those 25 maps is Harstem and he lost 0-2. Do you really think 2-23 vs nobody british players Wardi has an equal chance to beat Byul in a bo1 than Marineking does in a legitimate match? Because that's what the betting odds told us. (sorry Wardi if you're out there) Apologies if this post is unnecessary to most people i'm just trying to show the non-bettors who don't understand betting and probability just how outlandish the betting was on this match. | ||
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Grizvok
United States711 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:29 Swoopae wrote: StarGalaxy and I were watching the betting lines in real time. Several others were in the 2p2 thread and on Skype watching the betting lines with me in real time as well and saw them. StarGalaxy took the screenshot in the imgur link. Pinnacle has not disputed the screencap's legitimacy and Pinnacle cancelled all bets on the game due to 'fraud'. The betting line opened at 1.73 for Byul, was close to the 1.50 region a few minutes before the game and then closed at 1.091 after an insane amount of money was bet on Byul moving the lines. This is not debatable, this is a fact. I can provide a screencap of my bet on Byul at 1.73 opening lines for comparison if necessary or you can just take my word for it. You can draw whatever conclusions you want from those numbers, but don't try and dispute factual data. Once again i'd like to reiterate; clearly not all matches are fixed, it's a small handful of matches that are under suspicion and this one just happened to be the most blatant. I posted a full list of games that had unusual betting activity earlier in the thread. Betting is based on probability - knowing who the favourite is means nothing unless you can assign a probability to results. As i've started numerous times the odds at closing line would require Byul to win 11 out of 12 maps against Marineking in order for the bet to break even. This means that to show a profit, on AVERAGE you would need Byul to beat Marineking approximately 92 times out of 100 before the bet becomes worth making. No one is disputing that Byul was the favourite, but depending on how you handicap the match he is between a 1.33 and 1.70 favourite and that's a very wide range, in reality it's closer to 1.50 or so. Large amounts of money continued to pile in on Byul long beyond this point, at a rate statistically impossible for the bets to be legitimate. For what it's worth Aligulac suggests that Marineking has a 39% chance to win a bo1 against Byul; Aligulac isn't empirically accurate for handicapping bets but it's a good indication, and objectively Marineking is certainly better than 20% to win; he would have to only be 8% to win a best of 1 to justify these odds. For example, according to Aligulac, in a best of 1 match between Ziroy and Byul, it would not be correct to bet on Byul at 1.091. If you're wondering who Ziroy is, so am I because struggled to find literally ANY player on the aligulac tracker who it would be correct to bet on Byul in a bo1 against at 1.091. Actually, I finally found one. Wardi is deemed by Aligulac to have a 8.66% chance against Byul in a bo1 map. This would make Byul just over an 11-1 favourite in a single map. Wardi is a British terran I have never heard of with a tracked record of 2 wins and 23 losses. The only player I have even heard of that he has played in those 25 maps is Harstem and he lost 0-2. Do you really think 2-23 vs nobody british players Wardi has an equal chance to beat Byul in a bo1 than Marineking does in a legitimate match? Because that's what the betting odds told us. (sorry Wardi if you're out there) Apologies if this post is unnecessary to most people i'm just trying to show the non-bettors who don't understand betting and probability just how outlandish the betting was on this match. This information and numbers are extremely necessary. Thanks for elaborating. This was asked earlier but what kinds of money do you believe was bet on Byul all at once? Tens of thousands? | ||
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Dghelneshi
Germany82 Posts
On March 26 2015 09:21 Grizvok wrote: This information and numbers are extremely necessary. Thanks for elaborating. This was asked earlier but what kinds of money do you believe was bet on Byul all at once? Tens of thousands? On March 25 2015 17:10 Swoopae wrote: It'd be in the 10k-100k range. I'd estimate wagering high 5 figs to 100kish to win lower-mid 5 figs, but only Pinnacle would have the actual answer. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/starcraft-2/481281-pinnacle-voids-byul-vs-marineking-match?page=19#366 | ||
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Penev
28536 Posts
On March 26 2015 09:21 Grizvok wrote: This information and numbers are extremely necessary. Thanks for elaborating. This was asked earlier but what kinds of money do you believe was bet on Byul all at once? Tens of thousands? On March 25 2015 16:45 Swoopae wrote: Not one bet. They made a large number of maximum bets. There is a maximum bet per match on most bookmakers including Pinnacle. To move the line this far it would have to look something like this (just an example) with all bets being placed in about 2 minutes. Assuming the max 'to win' bet is 1k per bet (it's usually 1k on game day, I don't recall what the max bet was for this match) (These numbers are accurate representations of the amount risked, with each bet to win 1k just for illustration purposes. The actual betting pattern would have been similar to this to move the line this far. It is just an estimate however based on my extensive experience as an esports bettor, only Pinnacle has the actual numbers that were wagered on this match, we just know that the odds slowly moved from 1.73 to about 1.53 which is close to an accurate betting line, then in a 1-2 minute period right before the match this happened) $2000 on Byul at 1.50 $2040 on Byul at 1.49 $2127 on Byul at 1.47 $2173 on Byul at 1.46 $2222 on Byul at 1.45 $2272 on Byul at 1.44 $2381 on Byul at 1.42 $2500 on Byul at 1.40 $2631 on Byul at 1.38 $2702 on Byul at 1.37 $2857 on Byul at 1.35 $2941 on Byul at 1.34 $3125 on Byul at 1.32 $3333 on Byul at 1.30 $3571 on Byul at 1.28 $3846 on Byul at 1.26 $4166 on Byul at 1.24 $4545 on Byul at 1.22 $5000 on Byul at 1.20 $5555 on Byul at 1.18 $6666 on Byul at 1.15 $7690 on Byul at 1.13 $9090 on Byul at 1.11 $10,000 on Byul at 1.10 $11,000 on Byul at 1.091 Then the odds were taken down due to the bets being deemed suspicious. Using this example (again this is an estimate, Pinnacle have the actual numbers but it would be something like this) the bettors would stand to win 25k, 1k per bet but they are risking an absolute fortune at awful prices to do it. Bettors will only bet on a player they think will win up to the point where the bet no longer yields a positive return due to probability. For example i'd bet on CJ Hero over Center at even money, or even at 1.33 or something (which is about where the price was for the actual game yesterday) but if the price was bet to 1.09, that means I could get 8.00 or more on Center, so I would bet on Center because even though he is not the favourite, he will win more than 1 in 8 best of 1s on average against Hero. | ||
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Grizvok
United States711 Posts
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Davichi
Korea (South)7 Posts
I am posting this on my alternative account as I don't want my main account to be associated with any of the investigations in regards to the current match-fixing crisis we have right now. If moderators want to know who I am, they are free to check my user profile to see the IP matched to the user I am. All I ask is anonymity and to refrain from leaking my actual identity to the public. Anyway, there's a very popular prop bet that shows up on Korean toto (betting sites) for 'game ending in (X) minutes', where there are several betting odds for a different time (so for example, 15 will have a lower line than say, 10). Word on the street in Korea is that many 'good' players will take advantage of this prop bet in a best-of-series against a weak opponent in order to make a bit of money by throwing one of the sets taking advantage of the prop bet, and then convincingly win the rest of the series. One game which was highlighted by SwoopAE in terms of being suspicious that may have fit the bill was Innovation vs Super Game 1 from the GSL. This was a part of a best-of-series and had a 2-1 result. If possible, could anyone check on the times the game ended at and the manner in which the game ended? EDIT: There was also Super vs Dream Game 1 that was apparently compromised, but Dream swept the series 3-0 so I'm guessing for the bet to be nulled was that Super decided to do something in Game 1 that would have fulfilled a prop bet but he still lost. | ||
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pure.Wasted
Canada4701 Posts
On March 26 2015 08:14 The_Red_Viper wrote: Well there is no need to expect every game to be fixed, no matter what will come out of all of this. So far we only have a handfull of strange games, don't go full conspiracy everyone in the korean sc2 scene already knows that fixing is rampant in proleague What is 'rampant'? One game per week? One game per night? A couple of games per night? I wouldn't take any match that's not between SKT/KT/JA/CJ seriously at this point. If a team's financial security is at all in question, we just don't know. | ||
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BronzeKnee
United States5225 Posts
These guys spend so much time perfecting build orders to a T, but when it comes to match fixing, they can't even pull it off without it looking ridiculously suspicious. Like MarineKing should have just used the Reapers to beat away at the Spine Crawler, and appear to try to do well, but end up doing a sloppy job all game. Then no one would have questioned his play. | ||
BigFan
TLADT24920 Posts
Crazy to think about this situation. I haven't watched a MKP game in ages and my last memory of one of his games was of him losing against Life on Cloud Kingdom after he went mech and Life just kept streaming in zerglings lol. Anyways, decided to watch the game and give my own thoughts on it: I gotta say, at first, it seemed fine but then, once he just decided to keep his reapers at home and scouted that spine unintentionally I think, I became really suspicious. The same with Wolf and co. I mean, he's on one base. You can't seriously tell me that he's just looking at his cc and making workers. Then the whole not scouting with reapers seemed odd since there was no speed done anytime soon. I think the worst part for me was the rocks. It's true that it's easy to forgot about the rocks but for a pro player who lives and breaths the game and who scouted the 1 base all-in (if he assumed that), seeing as there's nothing in front of your base, why the hell are you not checking the rocks? Like, a single check just to make sure the hp is ok? Whenever I play BW on a map that has psi disruptors (similar to rocks in a way), I almost always place a worker there and try to check on it because I've lost games due to zerglings and lurkers flooding in from the back (or at least taking the high ground and destroying my cc at the mineral only base there). This was also on maps where the main and back mineral area is huge. It would probably take about 4-5 screens easy to see the whole thing but in this case, there's no reason to not have anything there especially when the main is really small. Between this rock business, the lack of scouting especially since he has reapers and the fact that it's the early game where there's nothing going on, as much as I hate to say it, but, seems like this was a throw. It looked this bad because ByuL wasn't in on it and tried some bizzare build (that Symbol has supposedly done before in game so not really new) so MKP was caught off guard and accidentally saw the spine crawler. I would've agreed that maybe, just maybe he didn't see the spine crawler but considering how close its location was to the cc at his entrance (within the same screen or close), there's no possible way for me to say he missed it! Also, overlords don't register on the minimap, only buildings do so that argument goes out the window imo. | ||
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pure.Wasted
Canada4701 Posts
On March 26 2015 10:21 BronzeKnee wrote: Ya know what really gets me about all this? These guys spend so much time perfecting build orders to a T, but when it comes to match fixing, they can't even pull it off without it looking ridiculously suspicious. Like MarineKing should have just used the Reapers to beat away at the Spine Crawler, and appear to try to do well, but end up doing a sloppy job all game. Then no one would have questioned his play. What happens if ByuL panics, makes a horrible play in response, and leaves the game? I don't know what the likelihood of ByuL panicking is, but is it 0%? The people MK made a deal with will have lost up to a hundred thousand dollars. You don't think there would be any repercussions against him? | ||
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Penev
28536 Posts
On March 26 2015 10:21 BronzeKnee wrote: Ya know what really gets me about all this? These guys spend so much time perfecting build orders to a T, but when it comes to match fixing, they can't even pull it off without it looking ridiculously suspicious. Like MarineKing should have just used the Reapers to beat away at the Spine Crawler, and appear to try to do well, but end up doing a sloppy job all game. Then no one would have questioned his play. He was caught of guard I think, because of the crazy all in. I don't think Byul was in on it. MarineKing just unfortunately scouted the crazy all in and met karma, the bitch | ||
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jellyjello
Korea (South)664 Posts
On March 26 2015 10:25 pure.Wasted wrote: What happens if ByuL panics, makes a horrible play in response, and leaves the game? I don't know what the likelihood of ByuL panicking is, but is it 0%? The people MK made a deal with will have lost up to a hundred thousand dollars. You don't think there would be any repercussions against him? Have we already concluded that MKP is guilty as charged? | ||
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lord_nibbler
Germany591 Posts
On March 26 2015 10:21 BronzeKnee wrote: That's what gets me as well.These guys spend so much time perfecting build orders to a T, but when it comes to match fixing, they can't even pull it off without it looking ridiculously suspicious. It should be so easy to lose a TvZ in a 'standard' way. Just don't split your Marines or 'react too late' to a muta switch or get yourself roach busted because the SCVs are late to the repair. | ||
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