GSL Season One
Code S

When It Rains
Ro16 Group C:
Rain, Rogue, Dream, Solar

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

by munch

If there’s one word to describe the Korean scene in Starcraft 2, it’s ambitious. Everyone who makes it to Code S burns with the ambition to win, to be the best. No one in Group C is here to make up the numbers, but only two will make it to the playoffs.

It’s been a quiet start for Rain this year. Elimination in the qualifiers dashed his hopes for NSSL gold, and his move away from KeSPA denied us the standard weekly appearance in Proleague. Aside from a 2-3 loss to Soulkey at IEM Taipei and a couple of appearances in online cups, our only glimpses of him have come in the GSL Round of 32. What we've seen so far should make the rest of the group very scared. So far he has looked in assertive form. He dealt Life one of his only 2 extended series losses since Dreamhack Winter and breezed past Classic and Harstem at IEM Tapiei. However, his quarterfinal loss to Soulkey revealed a weakness in his unshakable defense, as Soulkey’s swarm hosts caused him considerable problems. Both Solar and Rogue are willing to settle down to long swarm host games, and if Rain hasn't worked on this possibility then it might be a tough night for him.

Prior to 2015, Rogue flitted constantly between Code A and the early stages of Code S. This year he’s one group away from making it to the playoff stages of both starleagues, a laudable achievement that would match him with Life. Rogue has evolved from a crucial part of Jin Air’s Proleague jigsaw to a credible threat in individual leagues. His run in the NSSL showcased his form in microcosm: extremely strong play against zerg and terran, contrasted with a relative weakness against aggressive protoss. Rogue has occasionally been criticized for his lack of decisive play under pressure, and there wasn't a more succinct demonstration than his capitulation against Stats in the Ro8. It will be interesting to see how hard his loss to Stats, and also his defeat at the hands of Dark in the Proleague R1 Finals, has hit him.

Speaking of dual Starleague hopefuls, Dream is also on the warpath for an unprecedented achievement. Much like Rogue, Dream has taken full advantage of the uncertainty that clouded the Korean scene at the start of the year. Fortunately, he is the sole Terran in this group; despite his victory against Maru in the NSSL, his TvT remains unconvincing. On the other hand, his TvZ has been terrifying. After catching glimpses of his prowess back in 2013 ATC (when he played out a gloriously scrappy match against Scarlett) he has delivered the goods every time this year, with particularly impressive victories against Dark and Leenock. It’s true that we haven’t seen much of him—he rarely plays online matches, with the exception of IEM qualifiers—but what we have seen has justified the hype.

After his incredibly successful runs last year, it’s odd to view Solar as the outright underdog. That’s what an 0-6 record in Proleague will do to you. He’s lost to cheese, he’s lost in macro games, and he’s lost against representatives of all three races. It’s baffling that such a successful player, the linchpin of his team, has crumbled so hard in a format that he competently tackled last season.



What's truly bizarre is that his results in other competitions haven’t been affected by this failure. He’s continued to mop up in online play, reaching the finals in both of his recent Olimoleague appearances, as well as looking confident in the previous stage of GSL. With every loss in Proleague and every success elsewhere, it’s becoming more and more difficult to tell which Solar is the dominant one. Time will tell but until then, Solar remains a mystery.

Predictions

Rogue’s exit from NSSL last Thursday will have taken a toll on his psyche. Brutalized 3-0 in one of the shortest playoff matches we've seen in a while, he looked incapable of dealing with Stats’ aggression. Luckily, Rain is a different brand of protoss; unfortunately, that doesn't make him any less lethal. Indeed, Rain just seems on a different level compared to the other three members of the group, and I expect him to progress with ease. Solar will probably be highly aggressive in the lower bracket, and I think he's got a shot at taking out Rogue. However, Dream's TvZ simply seems too hot to handle at the moment, and he'll likely pour on the misery on the two struggling zergs.

Rain > Rogue
Dream > Solar
Rain > Dream
Rogue < Solar
Dream > Solar

Rain and Dream to advance.

Writers: munch.
Editors: CosmicSpiral.
Graphics: lichter.
Photo: GOMeXP.
Stats: Aligulac