EPTThere is a reddit thread about this already but I'll also copy paste stuff from there to here
Q: If 1/3 of the games should be cross spawn, why we have 14k games total on 4 player map but only 4k games for cross spawn? Also some of the numbers don't add up.
A: I have eliminated games that are less than 60 seconds (dodges and free wins)
Without this restriction, I have about 16,529 games in PvT total and 5,411 of them are cross spawn. Which is very close to 1/3 of the game.
There maybe cases where people scout the nearest spawn location and just quit so that's why the cross spawn result is screwed a bit.
For the 35 game and the 41 games difference, those were undetermined meaning no clear winners. Those can be because of disconnects or hacks etc.
Q: I'm curious if there is any trends as you go up in MMR? Do terrans get better against 9 gate? Do they get better against Nexus first? Or do the builds not care about MMR since they're all S rank.
A: at 2600+ mmr
The nexus first results are abysmal. They don't do nexus first at all pretty much.
- cross spawn - 25.6% win rate (only 39 games)
- not cross spawn - 25.4% win rate (only 67 games)
9 Gate - too few data points to make a conclusion. Only about 27 games total
at 2500+ mmr,
The nexus first is still bad but a bit better than 2600 data
- cross spawn - 42.5% win rate (120 games)
- not cross spawn - 40.7% win rate (226 games)
- overall win rate - 41.3%
9 Gate
- cross spawn - 38.2% win rate (34 games)
- not cross spawn - 45.5% win rate (55 games)
- overall win rate - 42.7%
So looks like 9 gate is a bit better than nexus first. Gateway at 10 looks like it has higher win rate though: 45.3% (1170 games for 2500+ mmr)
But we have to note that 2500+ mmr has only 44.2% winrate (1670 games) on Protoss side in general so 9 gate does look like above average build order lol
at 2600+ mmr, Protoss only has 35.2% winrate in general (508 games). Sadge
Note: All of these stats are for 4 player maps
Q: I noticed great on 9 is only a couple hundred occurrences, could that be just a few players who use that build who are just better at pvt? Nexus first seems to dominate the build orders, could the MMR of players going nexus first be inflated since it’s the most frequent build?
Seems like too many moving parts using the ladder to make a full conclusion.
A: So there were total of 14,605 games played on a 4 player map PvT
Nexus first build count - 2,681 (so no, it does not dominate the build order - 18.3%)
9 Gateway build count - 866 (so not a couple of hundred games - 5.93%)
10 Gateway build count - 8,480 (most common build order 58.1%)
And we take into account only 2600+ mmr matches, the results are even worse for nexus first. Therefore, I don't believe there are too many moving parts
Q: Okay then explain to me how the incredibly economically strong build that basically cannot be punished loses most of the time.
A: Well pros can answer that more than i can. I guess i can investigate how much economic advantage does nexus 1st give.
My guess is that this is a 4 player map issue. High level TVP had 35% winrate for Toss in 4 player maps.
We all know Terran scales better than protoss as the game drags on
