If there’s one word to describe the Korean scene in Starcraft 2, it’s ambitious. Everyone who makes it to Code S burns with the ambition to win, to be the best. No one in Group C is here to make up the numbers, but only two will make it to the playoffs.
It’s been a quiet start for Rain this year. Elimination in the qualifiers dashed his hopes for NSSL gold, and his move away from KeSPA denied us the standard weekly appearance in Proleague. Aside from a 2-3 loss to Soulkey at IEM Taipei and a couple of appearances in online cups, our only glimpses of him have come in the GSL Round of 32. What we've seen so far should make the rest of the group very scared. So far he has looked in assertive form. He dealt Life one of his only 2 extended series losses since Dreamhack Winter and breezed past Classic and Harstem at IEM Tapiei. However, his quarterfinal loss to Soulkey revealed a weakness in his unshakable defense, as Soulkey’s swarm hosts caused him considerable problems. Both Solar and Rogue are willing to settle down to long swarm host games, and if Rain hasn't worked on this possibility then it might be a tough night for him.
Prior to 2015, Rogue flitted constantly between Code A and the early stages of Code S. This year he’s one group away from making it to the playoff stages of both starleagues, a laudable achievement that would match him with Life. Rogue has evolved from a crucial part of Jin Air’s Proleague jigsaw to a credible threat in individual leagues. His run in the NSSL showcased his form in microcosm: extremely strong play against zerg and terran, contrasted with a relative weakness against aggressive protoss. Rogue has occasionally been criticized for his lack of decisive play under pressure, and there wasn't a more succinct demonstration than his capitulation against Stats in the Ro8. It will be interesting to see how hard his loss to Stats, and also his defeat at the hands of Dark in the Proleague R1 Finals, has hit him.
Speaking of dual Starleague hopefuls, Dream is also on the warpath for an unprecedented achievement. Much like Rogue, Dream has taken full advantage of the uncertainty that clouded the Korean scene at the start of the year. Fortunately, he is the sole Terran in this group; despite his victory against Maru in the NSSL, his TvT remains unconvincing. On the other hand, his TvZ has been terrifying. After catching glimpses of his prowess back in 2013 ATC (when he played out a gloriously scrappy match against Scarlett) he has delivered the goods every time this year, with particularly impressive victories against Dark and Leenock. It’s true that we haven’t seen much of him—he rarely plays online matches, with the exception of IEM qualifiers—but what we have seen has justified the hype.
After his incredibly successful runs last year, it’s odd to view Solar as the outright underdog. That’s what an 0-6 record in Proleague will do to you. He’s lost to cheese, he’s lost in macro games, and he’s lost against representatives of all three races. It’s baffling that such a successful player, the linchpin of his team, has crumbled so hard in a format that he competently tackled last season.
What's truly bizarre is that his results in other competitions haven’t been affected by this failure. He’s continued to mop up in online play, reaching the finals in both of his recent Olimoleague appearances, as well as looking confident in the previous stage of GSL. With every loss in Proleague and every success elsewhere, it’s becoming more and more difficult to tell which Solar is the dominant one. Time will tell but until then, Solar remains a mystery.
Predictions
Rogue’s exit from NSSL last Thursday will have taken a toll on his psyche. Brutalized 3-0 in one of the shortest playoff matches we've seen in a while, he looked incapable of dealing with Stats’ aggression. Luckily, Rain is a different brand of protoss; unfortunately, that doesn't make him any less lethal. Indeed, Rain just seems on a different level compared to the other three members of the group, and I expect him to progress with ease. Solar will probably be highly aggressive in the lower bracket, and I think he's got a shot at taking out Rogue. However, Dream's TvZ simply seems too hot to handle at the moment, and he'll likely pour on the misery on the two struggling zergs.
Rain > Rogue Dream > Solar Rain > Dream Rogue < Solar Dream > Solar
On February 25 2015 11:26 Circumstance wrote: I liquibetted Rain and Solar, and I stand by it. I'm not on the Dream hype train, and Solar's proven that the best-of format is where he succeeds.
never underestimate the dreamjwa, there aren't any terrans here
On February 25 2015 12:20 Dragoonstorm7 wrote: of all the groups, this one seems the most straightforward for who will advanced. which probably means there will be upsets
I get the feeling Rain will probably lose in the winners match to Dream and then proceed to be eliminated by Solar who will surprise everyone and make it through.
Hopefully Rain plays better than he did against Soulkey... him losing IEM was such a big blow in my confidence for him. That was supposed to be his tournament
Well it seems people have very high expectations of Rain, I don't. sure he has a chance to get out of this group but he is not by far and away the favorite he is rather neck and neck with the rest of the group. I'd consider Solar a slight underdog but the group otherwise very even.
This is going to be hard to watch in terms of image quality (even if you've subbed) after the WCS broadcasts. But game quality and Tastosis will make up for it. Go Rain/ Dream!
On February 25 2015 20:46 franky1992 wrote: This predictions have wastly overestimated Rain's PvZ. Rain has some weakness. I think this group, because of it seems easy, can show these weakness.
On February 25 2015 20:46 franky1992 wrote: This predictions have wastly overestimated Rain's PvZ. Rain has some weakness. I think this group, because of it seems easy, can show these weakness.
Captain Hindsight to the rescue!
well, to be fair. i think his comment wastely overestimated prediction's validity. i think my comment, because it seems written, can show these flaws.
Damn rogue's play is so crisp. That was some of the best Zvt i've seen all year. Not the most exciting match...but damn his play was so cut throat but still so refined. Loved it.
On February 26 2015 02:30 fezvez wrote: #PredictionSkill
No, seriously, don't take it personally, I like the stuff you put up.
Not my finest hour :[
But thanks!
dont worry. as long as u keep ur total prediction failure rate (like 2 out of 4 players wrong) below 25%. its statistically proven that ur predictions are better than a coinflip. and even if ur failure rat gets higher. as long as its below 100% ur still better than artosis. so go for it!
EPT
Rain this year. Elimination in the qualifiers dashed his hopes for NSSL gold, and his move away from KeSPA denied us the standard weekly appearance in Proleague. Aside from a 2-3 loss to Soulkey at IEM Taipei and a couple of appearances in online cups, our only glimpses of him have come in the GSL Round of 32. What we've seen so far should make the rest of the group very scared. So far he has looked in assertive form. He dealt Life one of his only 2 extended series losses since Dreamhack Winter and breezed past Classic and Harstem at IEM Tapiei. However, his quarterfinal loss to Soulkey revealed a weakness in his unshakable defense, as Soulkey’s swarm hosts caused him considerable problems. Both Solar and Rogue are willing to settle down to long swarm host games, and if Rain hasn't worked on this possibility then it might be a tough night for him.
Rogue flitted constantly between Code A and the early stages of Code S. This year he’s one group away from making it to the playoff stages of both starleagues, a laudable achievement that would match him with Life. Rogue has evolved from a crucial part of Jin Air’s Proleague jigsaw to a credible threat in individual leagues. His run in the NSSL showcased his form in microcosm: extremely strong play against zerg and terran, contrasted with a relative weakness against aggressive protoss. Rogue has occasionally been criticized for his lack of decisive play under pressure, and there wasn't a more succinct demonstration than his capitulation against Stats in the Ro8. It will be interesting to see how hard his loss to Stats, and also his defeat at the hands of Dark in the Proleague R1 Finals, has hit him.
Dream is also on the warpath for an unprecedented achievement. Much like Rogue, Dream has taken full advantage of the uncertainty that clouded the Korean scene at the start of the year. Fortunately, he is the sole Terran in this group; despite his victory against Maru in the NSSL, his TvT remains unconvincing. On the other hand, his TvZ has been terrifying. After catching glimpses of his prowess back in 2013 ATC (when he played out a gloriously scrappy match against Scarlett) he has delivered the goods every time this year, with particularly impressive victories against Dark and Leenock. It’s true that we haven’t seen much of him—he rarely plays online matches, with the exception of IEM qualifiers—but what we have seen has justified the hype.![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/q2q29h9.png)
